Mark Wignall: The Rice & Peas Pollster enters the Race

Publicly disgraced 'Rice and Peas Pollster Mark Wignall' has made a not so grand and predictable entry into the Political electioneering campaign on behalf of JLP'S Danville Walker in Central Manchester.

Mark brings with him the "Mcdonalds polling method". This method is best described as a scientific vote buying methodology. How does this work, see below.

Coincidentially, Professor Gayle recently completed a survey on vote buying with elements of swapping food for votes. This may very well explain why Mark stealthly parachuted into the Manchester race, following closely in the footsteps of his boss Mr Walker who entered bearing gifts of cars for the Police. Wow, some people dislike this type of obvious 'buy and sell' transparency.


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"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'.

As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways:

1) channel social agendas in a certain direction
2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction
3) influence social agendas in a certain direction
4) influence public policy
5) lead the people in a certain direction or

Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design, 'McDonalds polling' with its sole purpose is to yield a certain type of outcome.

The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior.

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Battle for Central Manchester heats up
JLP poll suggests Walker making inroads, PNP canvass says Bunting has a clear lead
BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver.com

Sunday, December 04, 2011




NOT three weeks after formally announcing his candidacy as the JLP's man in Central Manchester, Danville Walker is said to be making serious inroads into the constituency which has been held by the PNP's Peter Bunting since 2007.
It was a flu-plagued Walker who spoke to the Sunday Observer over a week ago, his illness, a testament, he claimed, to the fact that he hasn't left the constituency since his formal entry to politics and that he had been trodding the hills and valleys of the cool climes of Manchester continuously.



Danville Walker campaigning in Manchester last week.

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"My job is to run as hard as I can and don't look back. I just run the race and hope that I win when I reach the finish line," said Walker.
That race, according to his party, is paying dividends already.
The results of an internal poll conducted early last month by the JLP claim that more persons in key sections of the constituency, including traditional PNP strongholds, are showing strong support for the JLP newcomer compared to the PNP's Bunting.
The survey, a copy of which was obtained by the Sunday Observer, was conducted between November 5 and 9 across 22 communities in all four electoral divisions in the constituency, namely:
* Bellefield - 5 communities - 86 interviews;
* Knockpatrick - 5 communities - 112 interviews;
* Royal Flat - 5 communities - 126 interviews; and
* Mandeville - 7 communities - 126 interviews


Commissioned pollster, Mark 'Rice & Peas' Wignall, used a team of five interviewers and interviewed a total of 450 voting age adults in the constituency. Those interviewed (52 per cent male, 48 per cent female) were said to be a close match in terms of the age and occupational profile of voters in the constituency.
According to the survey, the sample margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The survey shows that in Knockpatrick, 42 per cent of voters said they would give their vote to the JLP, while 40 per cent said they would give it to the PNP. Twenty-one per cent refused to say.
In Royal Flat, the breakdown, according to the JLP internal poll, was 44 per cent in favour of the JLP and 40 per cent for the PNP, while 16 per cent refused to say.
In the capital of Manchester, the PNP appeared to have a slight lead in terms of support, with 41 per cent of voters saying they would give the nod to the Opposition, while 40 per cent said they preferred to vote for the ruling JLP. Nineteen per cent declined to state who their preference was.
In Bunting's stronghold of Bellefield, the JLP appeared to have made the least inroads, garnering 32 per cent of voter support there, compared to the PNP's 47 per cent.
Walker admitted during a subsequent interview with the Sunday Observer that his plan for this particular area had not been as successful as he had wished, but nonetheless declared he had significant support even there.
"The polls show in the PNP stronghold of Bellefield, they (the PNP) are a little stronger than us, but we don't care, we will work hard in Bellefield also," said Walker. "Support is there too, the support is growing. The trick is to get them to the polls," said the JLP challenger for the Central Manchester seat.
"Mr Bunting clearly believes he is the only person with common sense. The electorate are not as dumb as he feels they are," said Walker derisively.
He insisted that most of the grave problems facing the electorate in the constituency he seeks to lead failed to improve under Bunting who, he suggested, needs to have his hand held by more experienced PNP officials.
"After four years in the seat, you have to go for John Junor... to run for your mama, John Junor, to come hold your hand while you walk through your constituency...," Walker taunted, alluding to claims that the MP has not been a regular sight in some areas; something the JLP internal poll also points to:
"His (Bunting) performance ratings are consistent with MPs who fail to visit their constituencies often. His 'good' ratings are 38 per cent while his 'poor' ratings are 49 per cent. It ought to be said that Bunting's good ratings are somewhat better than this researcher has seen in polls in three constituencies," read the JLP survey summary.
But Bunting, when contacted for comment, dismissed Walker's statement about needing Junor's help.
"That's just petty. John Junor maintains a practice in the constituency, has maintained one for the last four years. He is the parish campaign co-ordinator for the PNP and that's why he is there," said Bunting.
"I welcome his participation in the campaign and we work together as a team and that is how the PNP operates."
Junor corroborated this in a subsequent call to the Sunday Observer, comparing his role with Bunting to that being played by former JLP general secretary Karl Samuda for Walker in the constituency.
Walker also took additional shots at his opponent declaring that Bunting seemed to be in a race to ascend to the leadership of the Opposition party, with the constituents suffering as a result.
"Mr Bunting is in a leadership race. I want to make sure he has all the time in the world to concentrate on that leadership race," he said.
But Bunting dismissed the assertion. "That is just a shallow attempt to create some division within the PNP and I won't dignify the comment with a further response," he said.
However, Walker said the difficulty his opponent has is trying to convince the constituents that another four years with him at the helm will be any different than the previous years. Plus, he said, Bunting is up against a candidate that knows how to work, harkening back to his public sector stints as director of elections and commissioner of customs and his image as a man who gets the job done.
The survey also indicated that "35 per cent of respondents see it as a 'good move' for Walker to be running on a JLP ticket. This is supported almost equally by swing voters, the uncommitted, and likely JLP voters. Twenty-four per cent see it as a 'bad move', but expected. That is mostly supported by those likely to vote for the PNP."
The survey seems to back Walker up on this with 31 per cent of those polled in the constituency recorded as having a favourable view of him as a former head of the Electoral Office of Jamaica. Overall, 31 per cent of respondents have a favourable view of him. Thirty-six per cent of the uncommitted have a favourable view of him, while 40 per cent of JLP voters have similar views.
Although Walker enjoys a high profile nationally, the jury is still out in the constituency in terms of making a definitive judgement of him, the survey said.
Those who have expressed an unfavourable view of him (11 per cent) are, in the main, strong PNP voters/supporters who allege that he assisted in stealing the election for the JLP in 2007 and that he is untrustworthy.
Bunting was confident that he has every possibility of eradicating any bounce the JLP may have recently seen.
"The Labour Party in the constituency would have got their bounce from two things — from the changing of the prime minister and the getting of a candidate which they hadn't had for some time," he said. "Those two things would have given them a bounce in late October, whenever those changes took place. My expectation is that by the time the elections are held that would have dissipated... I don't think there is much more bounce that they are going to get.
He sought to pour cold water on the JLP's mass meeting planned for this evening in Mandeville square where Prime Minister Holness is expected to announce the election date.
"This meeting is just about the JLP trucking in or busing in a whole heap of people from across the island, so really this is not going to reflect the Central Manchester crowd," he said.
In the meantime, Walker has expressed reservations that with his perceived progress, his opponent's supporters might resort to more serious deterrents than before, referring to the vandalism of his billboard within days of its erection in Mandeville.
"The one concern I have is their desperation, which, in the past, has led them to do desperate things. They started with my billboard," Walker said.
But this elicited a swift retort from Bunting.
"When the Labour Party came though on Wednesday and they destroyed Mykael Phillips' billboard in Mile Gully, why didn't he demand that his side replace the billboard? he asked. "I think he is being hypocritical and that he is being irresponsible with his statements about expectation of sabotage, and I can't help wondering if this is the pretext for more to come.
"We saw what happened in 2007, where my campaign vehicle was riddled with AK-47 bullets and four of my supporters around me were murdered. So I beg him, please don't start creating the environment for that," said Bunting.
The JLP survey, though concluding that the party had great potential to meet its target of digging the incumbent from his seat, also warned the party that it cannot take for granted that the PNP's support in the key constituency has stalled.
"While general polling over the last year would tend to support that trend, in the Central Manchester constituency, the high-profile incumbent in Peter Bunting will be pulling out all stops to retain his seat," the survey said.
That is something that Bunting himself told the Sunday Observer.
"The team that is going to be more effective campaigners between now and the election, and that has the more efficient organisation, will win," he said. "I think we have done our work in terms of building our organisation. Mr Walker has been on the ground now without my being able to be there full time, because I have Parliament, I have the electoral commission, I have committees of Parliament, (plus) all the other responsibilities I have.
"But you know, when I get on the ground when the formal campaign has started, I am going to try to ensure that the people get the message — hold those accountable for issues that are important to them, those who have done nothing to create jobs in the country. Those who have mismanaged the spending, why the roads are bad. All the issues that people have pointed out in the poll. My job is to ensure that I communicate to them that this Government is responsible for that and that is who they must pass judgement on," he said.
Bunting's successes also cannot be dismissed, the summary offers.
"Those who say they intend to vote for him cite 'it's my party', 'tradition' and, to a much lesser extent, Bunting's likeability. In that judgement, he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of his personality's likely influence on the final vote," the survey summarises, noting that organisation and funding will be key, and that these are areas Bunting is noted for.
Junor, as the PNP's campaign director for the central region, said the PNP has completed its own internal canvass of the seat, which shows a clear lead for its candidate.
"We are now in the stage where the analysis indicates a clear lead for Bunting in the constituency, and I'm not talking a clear lead anywhere near his margin for the last time (2007 elections). I'm talking over 1,000 (votes)," said Junor.
"Canvasses done in that constituency have been remarkably accurate," he insisted, asserting that the party has never been as organised in the constituency as it is at this point prior to Nomination Day. He said the PNP had been able to "predict its results within margins of 14-28 per cent".
Notwithstanding the PNP canvass, the JLP internal survey concludes that Walker's perceived competence as a public servant, his ability to get the job done, and the need to give the new Prime Minister Holness a 'try', are essentially the factors that the JLP needs to exploit, along with a superior organisational machinery, if it wants to wrest the Central Manchester seat from the PNP.
The survey team concludes it is a winnable seat for the JLP.


Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Battle-for-Central-Manchester-heats-up_10308804#ixzz1faO96w8h


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Vote-buying intensifies, survey finds
Some Jamaicans said selling their franchise for mackerel and rice
BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver

Sunday, December 04, 2011




DESPITE a recent wave of rejection of vote-buying by candidates running for seats in the upcoming general election, Jamaicans are still selling their votes; in some cases for as little as $500, a new study has found.
University of the West Indies anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle, in a 'snapshot' study done between November 23 and 30, 2011, canvassed the opinions of 240 young men and women in urban and rural Jamaica across 12 parishes, including 27 constituencies.



Supporters of the ruling Jamaica Labour Party at their annual conference this year and supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party at this year’s annual conference.

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The respondents were grouped by age and geography with 30 rural males between 18 and 34 years old and 30 rural males over the age of 35 interviewed. Thirty urban males between 18 and 34, and 30 urban males over 35 were also surveyed. The same features distinguished female respondents, ie 30 rural females 18 to 34 years old and 30 rural females over the age of 35 were included in the survey. Also, 30 urban females 18 to 34 years and 30 urban females older than 35 years were surveyed.
The surveyors asked the respondents the following questions:
1. Have you ever witnessed persons receiving gifts or money from politicians at election time?
2. What do they normally receive?
3. When was the last time you witnessed such activities?
They were also asked to say which of the following applied to them regarding receiving gifts from politicians at election time:
* Yes, I have, but it never affected the way I voted.
* Yes, I have, and to tell the truth, it affected the way I voted.
* Yes, I have, because none of them is any different and so I have voted for the one that pays me.
* I would vote for anyone who pays me; why not?
* I would take money from a politician, but it would not affect my vote.
* No, I have never done so.
* No, I have never done so, and never will.
The UWI anthropologist declined to reveal which 27 constituencies were surveyed for what he said were ethical reasons. However, of the island's 14 parishes, the study only excluded Hanover and St Elizabeth for reasons of access. It features opinions canvassed from persons in urban (town clusters) of Kingston, St Catherine (Portmore, Spanish Town) and St James (Montego Bay). Persons from rural town clusters in Westmoreland, St Ann, St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Manchester, Clarendon and Trelawny were also polled.
The research team, he said, found there was evidence of vote-buying in almost all of the 27 constituencies canvassed.
"The shocking finding is that only one of the 27 constituencies provided no evidence of vote-buying... So widespread is the practice that in some constituencies the team interviewed less than 10 persons conveniently, and a third of these persons had experienced vote-buying. Note that more than a third (88 of 240) of the sample has experienced direct face-to-face vote-buying," said Gayle.
The data also suggest that the poorer and more desperate the people of the constituency are, the cheaper their votes can be bought.
"Several persons in the inner cities received no more than $500, though the two modal receipts were $2,000 and $5,000. The poor were also very likely to be trapped with food. In some cases their package never amounted to more than $1,000. There were a few, however, who received as much as 50 pounds of rice, along with (tinned) mackerel," said the anthropologist.
"The poor were also likely to receive phone cards and even mattresses. The rural poor were very likely to be baited with livestock, seeds and fertiliser. In a few cases, both rural and urban near-poor were drawn by construction material. A few received vouchers of $20,000 and $40,000 which they could take to specific hardware stores. These were told to the researchers who called to verify that the data was accurate."
Again, Dr Gayle declined to divulge the name of these businesses for what he termed ethical reasons.
However, he noted that the data suggest a more deadly practice persists; the exchange of guns for votes, a feature of violent elections in the 1970s and 80s. Some of those surveyed said they had recently witnessed this.
"... three young men were seen demanding a gun from the MP and were witnessed collecting them at later dates. It is important to note that two of these guns were distributed only weeks ago, suggesting that politicians are still in the business of distributing guns to inner-city youth. In these latter cases, the respondent explained that they saw the youth begging for the gun and also saw when a car turned up with a package to give the youth. In one case, the youth pulled a 9mm Glock pistol only minutes after the delivery was made and publicly boasted that his MP was for real.
"Him a di real big man. Look pon what him send for me. Now mi can go look some food," the young man is reported as saying.
The vote-buying has also intensified as campaigning accelerated ahead of the pending poll over the past few months, Gayle said. The number of persons who have witnessed blatant vote-buying has also increased.
"If we add the vote-buying activities of the weeks of November 13-19 and the week of November 20-26 with the month of October and month of November (other than those two very active weeks in November that are isolated) we get a sum of 52 cases witnessed," Dr Gayle noted.
"This represents 59 per cent of all cases. This period (October and November 2011) represents a period of very aggressive political campaigning. The second most popular period was 2007, the last election. While the data cannot be compared, it tells us a story that vote-buying is current and critical in the campaigning strategy of our political parties. The continuous distribution of guns by a few politicians suggests that politicians will try to gain votes in Jamaica by any means necessary, if no serious sanctions are applied to reduce vote-buying," he said.
Dr Gayle's research also showed vote-buyers preyed on the poor. Hence, of the 88 persons who had witnessed vote-buying, 45 per cent were poor. But the anthropologist noted that the near-poor (lower middle classes) and the middle and upper class are not immune.
"As one explained, 'I have never seen it in my community, but at my workplace'. Fifty-three per cent (47 of the 88 who witnessed vote-purchasing) were males, suggesting that gender is not important here. The same proportion of persons was between the age of 18 and 34, that means age is also not important in determining if one witnesses the practice. This is because the practice is very widespread," Gayle concluded.
According to Gayle, "the practice of vote-buying in Jamaica is so extensive that it has become a part of culture and even entertainment at election times".
"In fact, many Jamaicans have even created a rationale for taking bribes at election times. They see it as an act of justice — their chance to get back some of the funds corrupt politicians took from the public purse," he said.
He pointed to what one rural respondent told researchers: "We know that they tief our money and pretend that is private sector give it to them. We join the game too. Anybody offer me money I take it, but they are not getting my vote. It is justice and in fact it is part of the entertainment in this community as elections approach".


Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Vote-buying-intensifies--survey-finds_10308099#ixzz1faN8fTEU