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Sunday, October 30, 2011

(2012 Jamaican Election) Socio-Political 'Natural' Laws


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X-1:
Newly elected Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness is firmly in control of the Jamaican government and is psychologically tempted daily to chart his own mandate consistent with human nature. The operative question is: When will he call the next election? Before one dives head first into the related timeliness of election debates, one should consider the following socio-psycho-political observable laws as documented by some very smart people, as follows:

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Parkinson's law

Parkinson's law is the adage first articulated by Cyril Northcote Parkinson as the first sentence of a humorous essay published in The Economist in 1955:[1][2]

"Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion"

It was later reprinted together with other essays in the book Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress (London, John Murray, 1958). He derived the dictum from his extensive experience in the British Civil Service.

The current form of the law is not that which Parkinson refers to by that name in the article. Rather, he assigns to the term a mathematical equation describing the rate at which bureaucracies expand over time. Much of the essay is dedicated to a summary of purportedly scientific observations supporting his law, such as the increase in the number of employees at the Colonial Office while Great Britain's overseas empire declined (indeed, he shows that the Colonial Office had its greatest number of staff at the point when it was folded into the Foreign Office because of a lack of colonies to administer). He explains this growth by two forces: (1) "An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals" and (2) "Officials make work for each other." He notes in particular that the total of those employed inside a bureaucracy rose by 5-7% per year "irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done."

In 1986, Alessandro Natta complained about the swelling bureaucracy in Italy. Mikhail Gorbachev responded that "Parkinson's Law works everywhere."[

In time, however, the first-referenced meaning of the phrase has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries: for example, the derivative relating to computers:

Data expands to fill the space available for storage.
or
Storage requirements will increase to meet storage capacity.
or
Nature abhors a vacuum.
Some define Parkinson's Law in regard to time as:
The amount of time which one has to perform a task is the amount of time it will take to complete the task.

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X-1:
If one subscribes to this logic, then you may conclude that the Jamaican Election will not occur within the next 6 months and may even occur just a few months prior to the alotted deadline date. However, if you do not subscribe to this logic or view it as N/A, then the conclusion maybe that the election will occur within weeks or months. If that occurs then by association other 'natural' laws may be magnified.

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Hofstadter's law

Hofstadter's Law is a self-referencing time-related adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter and named after himself.

Hofstadter's Law:

It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.

Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid[1]
Hofstadter's Law was a part of Douglas Hofstadter's 1979 book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. The law is a statement regarding the difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of any substantial complexity.[2] It is often cited amongst programmers, especially in discussions of techniques to improve productivity, such as The Mythical Man-Month or extreme programming.[3] The recursive nature of the law is a reflection of the universal experience of difficulty experienced in estimating complex tasks despite all best efforts, including knowing that the task is complex.


Optimism bias

Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with the illusion of control and illusory superiority, it is one of the positive illusions to which people are generally susceptible. Excessive optimism can result in cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and delays when plans are implemented or expensive projects are built.


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X-1

If the election occurs within weeks or months, Hofstadter's Law and Optimism Bias will become magnified variables. How will these variables relate to the eventual election results. This question can only be addressed accurately in an election post mortem.

It has been said and documented that the most consistent predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Bruce Golding had a history of quitting and so he was true to form in resigning.

The JLP has a history of calling early elections and they have motivation for doing so again, as in 'game changer' and trying to capitalize on the New Leadership bounce before the next 'negative story' breaks.

One may conclude that calling an early election, maybe like trying to beat "the galawasp to the water". This is politics at its best, as both sides jockey for the moment(s) of advantage. All these various moves and counter moves are emotionally based, and attitudes are more stationary; hence, the methodology employed in X-1's research as summarized below.

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X-1

"It appears that X-1 is spot-on in reference to his research data's inferential analysis in regards to the JLP''s Bruce Golding negative trending pattern. Will this move or pending move to be materialized be a "Game Changer"? Yes and No, Why?

There exists a thousand words between the verbal and written. Scientifically, this move (Golding Resignation) will not have a general election material effect, but rather a "spot in the pond effect" A bounce will occur, but the trending negative pattern will hold true. "Game Changer" will be "Regime Changer" in the end, as the Central Tendency illustrated in Chart 1 and 2 were not predicated solely on any politicians individual value, but rather attitudinal value of the masses seen through the lens of scientific methodology.



“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm

Attitudinal Survey Data

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.




Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:

Jlp = +1

Pnp = +5

Nnc = -1


Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1

-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
..................0....... (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”.......


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"11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%


.............*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10



11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%

............................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10



Chart # 2
Scale 10=100

................. (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10



Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter."

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