tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26976479275064257502024-02-08T02:59:26.786-08:00Jamaican Research: Opinion Polling and Related Research Topics (c)Blog established by the Phantom Researcher X-1(E-Mail: phantomresearcher@yahoo.com) to focus on social science research. Established in memory of Emeritus Professor Herman Smith, University of Missouri St. Louis.
Follow Up Blog Discussion Here: Jamaican Political Governance (c)X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-60284575695592428552011-12-30T05:07:00.000-08:002012-01-06T11:47:49.332-08:00Election Results and Spot-on-ness of the Phantom Researcher X-1This Blog has been deemed to contain intellectual property value and therefore has been locked/frozen to preserve its integrity. You may continue viewing discussion(s) on:<br /><strong>http://jamaicanelection2011.blogspot.com/</strong><br /><br />******************<br /><br /><em><strong>Congratulations to both the Peoples National Party and the Jamaica Labour Party.</strong></em> <br /><br />************<br /><br /><br />X-1<br /><br /><strong>Consistent with the results of the Phantom Researcher (X-1's) predictive scientific research findings posted in this blog on Febuary 6, 2011 and July 9, 2011, the Peoples National Party (PNP) has exacted a decisive election victory in Jamaica's 2011 General Election over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). <br /><br />Post Election data analysis will conclude that, when X-1's research findings are compared with the three standard Pollsters (Johnson, Anderson and Boxill) only one (X-1) can claim valid and reliable SPOT-ON-NESS.</strong> <br /><br /><strong>X-1 stated in July of 2011 that their (Standard Pollsters) findings/results will be measured on how close (convergence) their tabular Dionysian methodology comes to the very reliable Apollonian methodology used by X-1. See quote below.</strong><br /> <br /><br /><em>"Re-inforcement of Theory<br /><br />This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’" <strong>(Phantom Researcher X-1, July 9, 2011 Source: http://opinionpollingjamstyle.blogspot.com/2011/07/jamaica-election-2012-stone-methodology.html) </strong></em><br /><br /><strong> Chart # 3 Validity and Reliability Pyramid</strong><br /> ................/ \<br /> ............./.X-1. \1st<br /> ........../ ...........\ <br /> ......./..................\<br /> ..../........anderson......\ 2nd<br /> ../ .........johnson..........\ 3rd<br /> / ............ boxill .............\ 4th<br /> _______________________________ <br /><br /><br /><strong>X-1 Original Research Conclusion:<br /><br />"Attitudinal Survey Data <br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Total Attitudinal Scale Scores: <br /><br />Jlp = +1 <br /><br />Pnp = +5 <br /><br />Nnc = -1 <br /><br /><br />Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67 <br />Chart 1 <br /><br />-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5 <br />...................0....... (1.67) <br />In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ” <br /><br /><br />%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% <br /><br /><br /><br />(Survey using Proxy data) <br /><br /><br /><em>Attitudinal Survey Data continuation… <br /><br /><br />11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll <br />Tuesday, May 03, 2011 <br /><br />Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June. <br />A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips. <br />The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter. <br />The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm. <br />In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people. <br />Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent. <br />The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year. <br />In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent. <br />At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign. <br />The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year. <br />In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent. <br />In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April. <br />Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges. <br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0 </em><br /><br /><br />X-1<br /><br />"11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility <br />(57-26)=-31% <br /><br /><br />.................* <br />-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10 <br /><br /><br /><br />11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation <br />(49-38)=-11% <br /><br />.....................................* <br />-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10 <br /><br /><br /><br />Chart # 2Scale 10=100 <br /><br />..................... (-21%) [-31-11] <br />-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10 <br /><br /><br /><br />• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister. <br />• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern. <br />• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend. <br />• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern. <br />• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions. <br />• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter." Source: http://opinionpollingjamstyle.blogspot.com/2011_11_01_archive.html </strong><br /><br />***************<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>BLOWOUT: PNP 41 - JLP 22<br />Published: Friday | December 30, 2011 41 Comments <br /><br />Portia Simpson-Miller</strong><br />People's National Party supporters in ecstasy at the party's Old Hope Road, St Andrew, headquarters on learning of their victory in the polls last night. - Ian Allen/Photographer<br /><br />Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader, outgoing Prime Minister Andrew Holness (centre), and (from right) his wife Juliet, party General Secretary Aundré Franklin, former Senator Arthur Williams and MP designate for West Kingston, Desmond McKenzie, face the media at the JLP's Belmont Road headquarters last night. - Gladstone Taylor/Photographer1 2 3 ><br /><br />by Daraine Luton, Senior Staff Reporter<br />Defying opinion polls that suggested yesterday's general election was too close to call, the People's National Party (PNP) secured a stunning victory, winning 41 of the 63 seats in the House of Representatives.<br /><br />The party gained 53 per cent of the popular vote.<br /><br />The result will propel the PNP's president, Portia Simpson Miller, back to the premiership, a job she held for 18 months and lost a mere four years ago when her party was prised from government after more than 18 years in office.<br /><br />In fact, the defeat of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) meant the first time since the advent of universal adult suffrage, nearly seven decades ago, that an administration has been chucked out after a single term - an outcome that will likely lead to much soul-searching within the organisation.<br /><br />Indeed, in yesterday's election, several leading JLP figures, including Cabinet ministers Robert Montague and Clive Mullings, spectacularly lost their parliamentary seats<br /><br />"I want to thank the prime minister who called earlier to congratulate me, and he was very gracious," Simpson Miller said.<br /><br />"I am humbled by the support of the Jamaican people and I ask you to ensure that you greet JLP supporters with love."<br /><br />Shaping future together<br /><br />Simpson Miller said her team would be working with all Jamaicans as one Jamaican family "as we shape the future together".<br /><br />She had special commendation for Arnaldo Brown, Julian Robinson, Damion Crawford, André Hylton and Raymond Pryce - first-time candidates who secured victories.<br /><br />She also commended candidates who came close to victory, saying "you are winners".<br /><br />In conceding the election, outgoing prime minister and JLP leader, Andrew Holness, accepted the result as the will of the people and said the party would listen to the voice of the people.<br /><br />"It is a time of reflection and introspection for the Jamaica Labour Party. We see it as an opportunity to rebuild and, starting tomorrow, we will be rebuilding," a sombre Holness said.<br /><br />"It is apparent that the people of Jamaica still have concerns about the JLP and we will reflect on that. I wish the new Government well. They will face several challenges, but I hope for the benefit of the country they will do a good job."<br /><br />He added: "I was privileged to have served in a short time. I really did not have much room. I had to make the decision that we made. I feel good that I have executed the duties of prime minister over the short time to the best of my ability, and I look forward to another opportunity."<br /><br />Holness was prime minister for just over two months, having been catapulted to the job after the surprise resignation of his predecessor, Bruce Golding, who accepted that the JLP would have little chance of victory with him at the helm.<br /><br />Confidence lost<br /><br />Golding lost public confidence over his administration's resistance of the United States' request for the extradition of now-convicted gangster Christopher 'Dudus' Coke, and the hiring of lobbyists to encourage Washington to go soft on the matter.<br /><br />In its election manifesto, the PNP promised to renegotiate the country's agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), implement a Jamaica Emergency Employment Programme (JEEP) to arrest the problem of unemployment; and renegotiate the contract of the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) to allow for competition in the transmission and distribution of electricity, among others.<br /><br />It was also the first time that persons were vying for 63 seats in the House of Representatives.<br /><br />The JLP won the 2007 general election by a razor-thin majority, securing 32 of the 60 seats in the House. The PNP won the other 28.<br /><br />The PNP had greeted Holness' announcement of election and nomination day, saying the symbolism of the dates meant a lot to leaders of the party. Simpson Miller celebrated her 66th birthday on nomination day, December 12.<br /><br />"I want to thank Mr Andrew Holness for giving me the best birthday possible that anyone could ever have. And an excellent Christmas gift for the Jamaican people, and a wonderful and beautiful new year," Simpson Miller said after the election date was announced by Holness in Mandeville.<br /><br />Nomination day was also special for the PNP's campaign director, Dr Peter Phillips, as it marked the 24th anniversary of his marriage to Sandra Minott Phillips while the eve of yesterday's election was his 62nd birthday.<br /><br />The PNP has been on the election trail for more than a year. It had blasted the JLP government for the handling of the economy and said it had brought shame on Jamaica with its handling of the extradition request for Coke.<br /><br />All-island tour<br /><br />In its bid for leadership of the country, the PNP embarked on an all-island tour during which party officials, led by Simpson Miller and 'Star Boy' K.D. Knight, told the country that Bruce Golding was not suitable to continue as prime minister and that the country needed to go to the polls in a general election.<br /><br />According to Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls, 21 per cent of Jamaicans lined up behind the JLP in June with that number increasing to 26 per cent by November with Holness at the helm.<br /><br />The last Gleaner-Johnson poll before the election, done on December 17 and 18, found 38 per cent of Jamaicans were prepared to cast their ballot for the PNP, while 36 per cent would vote JLP.<br /><br />Heading into the election, the PNP was confident that Jamaicans had accepted its message that it was capable of leading a return to sustained economic growth for the country.<br /><br />The PNP also claimed the turnout at its mass meetings was "overwhelming, demonstrating the fact that the people are ready for a change of Government."<br /><br />Yesterday's victory added to general election success secured by the PNP in 1955, 1959, 1972, 1976, 1989, 1993, 1997 and 2002.<br /><br />The JLP won the elections in 1944, 1949, 1962, 1967, 1980, 1983 and 2007.<br /><br />daraine.luton@gleanerjm.com<br /><br />**************<br /><br />X-1 <br /><strong>"2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version<br /><br /><br />Feb 6th, 2011 <br /><br />Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project<br /><br />I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved. <br /><br />This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.<br /><br /><br /><br />Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)<br /><br /><br />Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.<br /><br />The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.<br /><br /><br />The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure<br /><br />The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.<br /><br />Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.<br /><br /><br />“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)<br /><br /><br />Pureness Parameters<br /><br /><br />JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.<br /><br />PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.<br /><br />Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.<br /><br />Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm<br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 31.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007<br /><br />Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior. <br /><br />Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model. <br /><br />Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.<br /><br />Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.<br /><br /><br />Operational Variables:<br /><br />These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.<br /><br /><br />Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.<br /><br />Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.<br /><br />Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).<br /><br />Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.<br /><br /><br />Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.<br /><br />Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change. <br /><br /><br />Scaling/Measurement<br /><br />How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.<br /><br /><br /><br />Re-inforcement of Theory<br /><br />This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.<br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Data<br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.<br /><br /><br />1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008<br />Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.<br />According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html<br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008<br />Samuda, Shaw<br />On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.<br />Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html<br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze<br />Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009<br /><br />Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter<br /><br />Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.<br />Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.<br />The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.<br />"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />4. Bartlett defends office revamp<br />Published: Monday | October 12, 2009<br />Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer<br />Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.<br />Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br />5. We want and deserve more<br />Published: Monday | December 7, 2009<br />Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.<br />The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html<br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />6. Bruce Pays Big<br />Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010<br />16 Comments<br /><br />After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.<br />A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />7. Erasing The Corruption Stain<br />Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010<br />7 Commentsampbell<br />Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter<br />From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.<br />Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />8. Blaine forms new political party<br />New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston<br />BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com<br />Thursday, August 05, 2010<br /><br />THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).<br />"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.<br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />9. Cash Plus Drama<br />Published: Friday | January 14, 2011<br />18 Comments<br /><br /><br />Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers<br />Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.<br />"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.<br />Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html<br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br />10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg<br />Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011<br />9 Comments<br />Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File<br />Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.<br />In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design<br />Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm <br /><br />Attitudinal Survey Data<br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:<br /><br />Jlp = +1<br /><br />Pnp = +5<br /><br />Nnc = -1<br /><br /><br />Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67<br />Chart 1<br /><br />-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5<br />.................0....... (1.67)<br />In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”<br /><br /><br />%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%<br /><br /><br /><br />(Survey using Proxy data) <br /><br /><br />Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…<br /><br /><br />11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll<br />Tuesday, May 03, 2011<br /><br />Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June. <br />A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.<br />The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.<br />The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.<br />In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.<br />Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.<br />The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.<br />In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.<br />At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.<br />The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.<br />In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.<br />In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.<br />Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0<br /><br /><br /><br />11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility<br />(57-26)=-31%<br /><br /><br />.................*<br />-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10<br /><br /><br /><br />11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation<br />(49-38)=-11%<br /><br />.....................................* <br />-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10<br /><br /><br /><br />Chart # 2 Scale 10=100<br /><br />..................... (-21%) [-31-11] <br />-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10<br /><br /><br /><br />• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.<br />• <em>Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.<br />• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend. <br />• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.<br />• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.</em>• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter."</strong><a href="http://jamaicanelection2011.blogspot.com/"></a>X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-36427781118237122692011-12-23T11:44:00.000-08:002011-12-31T10:42:51.875-08:0011:59 Election Breeze PollsX-1 <br /><br />12/23/2011<br /><br />It's 11:59 figuratively speaking and the curtains are closing on the 2011 Election Polling season with final voting to occur on 12/29/2011. Post 12/29/2011 the media will perform a post mortem of the polls focused on who was "SPOT ON".<br /><br />Ardent readers of this blog may recall that this blog was established with the science of polling and the manipulation of polling methodology in various research including politics being it's focal point. <br /><br />X-1 has pursued a contrast or in some cases concurrence between Attitudinal Polling Research and Opinion Polling Research. The rationale, Attitude is deep and generally static/stationary over longer periods of time; Whereas, opinions are generally momentarily changable and certain percentage of voters are easily influenced by Public Relations (PR). This reality leads to opinion polling being used as a tool in a behavioral modification method by design or default to influence voting behavior, and admittedly this method if executed professionally can be very effective. <br /><br />X-1 guiding theory is, Attitudinal Research is a more valid method of predicting people future behavior, notwithstanding behavioral modification tactics as "water always reverts back to its natural position"<br /><br />Below I have posted the latest polls from the 'Hired Polling Guns'. Immediately following I reposted excerpts of my original Attitudinal Research for comparison convenience. We will revist after 12/29/2011.<br /><br />Thank you for following this blog.<br /><br />***********************************<br /><br /><strong>PNP comeback<br /><br />Published: Friday | December 23, 2011 10 Comments <br /><br />Portia Simpson Miller</strong><br />Andrew Holness<br />by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter<br /><br />With a few metres left before the finish line is crossed in the race for Gordon House, the People's National Party (PNP) has made a rally that has seen it sweep past the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the latest check on who is likely to be crowned champion come December 29.<br /><br />While the two parties remain in a statistical dead heat, the PNP seems to have snatched the momentum from the JLP over the past few days.<br /><br /><strong>The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found that if Jamaicans were asked to vote today, 38 per cent would cast their ballot for the PNP while 36 per cent would vote JLP.</strong><br /><br />With the poll having a sampling error of plus or minus four per cent, there is really nothing separating the two parties going down to the line.<br /><br />But the PNP seems to have the edge, gaining six percentage points in the past week while the JLP has not moved an inch.<br /><br />"The JLP came to a screeching halt just over one week ago probably because of issues such as the Government's handling of the United States spy plane revelations and other issues while the PNP seems to have received a boost by its pointing out the inaccuracies of some of the JLP's claims," the pollster told The Gleaner.<br /><br />"But it is still anybody's game because a two percentage point lead is not significant and what we are seeing is fluidity. The person who said 'probably PNP' one week earlier might now be saying 'probably JLP' or 'undecided'," added Johnson.<br /><br />When Johnson tested the pulse of the nation on December 10 and 11, the JLP enjoyed 36 per cent support while the PNP trailed with 32 per cent support.<br /><br />One week later, December 17 and 18, Johnson returned to the field and found that some persons who had previously said they would not vote or who had refused to say who they would vote for have moved behind the Portia Simpson Miller-led party.<br /><br />The latest poll found the number of undecided voters almost unchanged at 10 per cent compared to nine per cent one week prior while those who will not vote declined by three percentage points to 15 per cent while a negligible number of respondents, one per cent, refused to answer the question.<br /><br />Before leadership debate <br /><br />Johnson noted that the latest poll was done after the second of three national debates and would not show what, if any, impact the clash between Simpson Miller and JLP Leader Andrew Holness would have on voting plans.<br /><br />"These voting intentions are not locked in concrete and the leadership debate could have an impact but the whole thing is very fluid," emphasised Johnson.<br /><br />He noted that the persons who said they would definitely vote PNP increased from 29 per cent to 35 per cent in one week while those who said the would probably vote PNP remained at three per cent.<br /><br />For the JLP, those who said they would definitely put their X beside its symbol of the bell moved marginally from 31 to 32 per cent while the voters who said probably JLP dropped from five to four per cent.<br /><br />However the main reasons why persons would vote the way they indicated, for the most part, remained almost unchanged.<br /><br />For the JLP, 34 per cent of the persons who say they will vote for the party say they are "diehard Labourites"; 15 per cent said it is better than the PNP; while 12 per cent said Holness deserves a chance. But that is down from 19 per cent one week earlier.<br /><br />On the PNP side, 31 per cent who said they would vote for the party claimed that was because they are rock-stone Comrades, down from 36 per cent one week earlier.<br /><br />Eighteen per cent said the party is better than the JLP and 13 per cent said the PNP would do a better job of running the country.<br /><br />The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was conducted in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008.<br /><br />arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com<br /><br /><br /><strong>PNP: 38<br />JLP: 36</strong><br />UNDECIDED: 10<br /><br />WOULD NOT VOTE: 15<br /><br />REFUSED: 1<br /><br />**************<br /><br /><strong>Poll numbers heading in the wrong direction for JLP leader<br />Published: Friday | December 23, 2011 6 Comments </strong><br /><br />It appears the shine has started to rub off Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Prime Minister Andrew Holness, with most of his numbers trending down.<br /><br />A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found a dip in the favourability rating for Holness and a reduction in the number of persons who believe he should be returned as prime minister.<br /><br />There is also a decline in the number of persons who believe he would do a better job than the People's National Party's (PNP) Portia Simpson Miller as the head of State.<br /><br />The poll, conducted before the national leadership debate on Tuesday, found that for the first time since he was sworn in to lead the Government, Holness trails Simpson Miller in favourability rating, even though he continues to lead her as the person most Jamaicans think would do the better job as prime minister.<br /><br />Cannot walk on water<br /><br />"People are now realising that Holness cannot walk on water. He is being humanised as the days go by," said pollster Bill Johnson.<br /><br />"The JLP received a significant boost because of Holness but now Jamaicans are seeing him with his strengths and weaknesses like all of us and are making informed judgements," added Johnson.<br /><br />According to the poll, conducted on December 17 and 18, Holness is now viewed favourably by 47 per cent of Jamaicans, down from 51 per cent in November and 49 per cent earlier this month.<br /><br />The number of persons who view Holness in an unfavourable light is also on an upward trajectory, 24 per cent in November, 25 per cent early December and 31 per cent in the latest poll.<br /><br />For Simpson Miller, her favourability rating has climbed to 50 per cent, its highest level in months. The persons who view the PNP president in a negative light has declined from a high of 40 per cent in June to 37 per cent in the latest poll.<br /><br />Holness for PM <br /><br />But despite the increase in her favourability rating, Simpson Miller continues to trail Holness as the person Jamaicans want to lead the government. <br /><br />Fifty per cent of Jamaicans believe Holness should remain as prime minister. This is down from the 55 per cent recorded early in December but still a healthy lead over the 35 per cent who say they want someone else.<br /><br />Holness enjoys a 42 per cent support when he is matched up with Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans think would do a better job as prime minister. The PNP president gets the nod from 39 per cent of Jamaicans while 19 per cent say they are undecided.<br /><br />Despite still trailing Holness, Simpson Miller is enjoying the momentum as in November she was behind by eight percentage points when the two were matched up. That increased to nine percentage points in early December but is now down to a three percentage point gap.<br /><br />The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was done in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20111223/lead/lead2.html<br /><br />*************<br /><br /><strong>PNP has slightly better favourability rating</strong><br /> <br />Wednesday, December 21, 2011<br /><br /><br />NEITHER the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) nor the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) received a strong positive rating from persons interviewed by pollster Don Anderson earlier this month.<br /><br />Of the 1,000 registered voters polled in more than 150 locations islandwide, Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Limited found that 37.4 per cent gave the JLP a favourable rating, while 40.6 per cent gave the party an unfavourable rating. Another 22 per cent had no opinion on this issue. <br /><br /><br />Supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party and ruling Jamaica Labour Party have fun during Nomination Day activities in Kingston last week Monday. (Observer file photo)<br /> Supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party and ruling Jamaica Labour Party have fun during Nomination Day activities in Kingston last week Monday. (Observer file photo) 1/1 <br /><br /><br />"The PNP has only a slightly better favourability rating than the JLP with 40.7 per cent considering its performance and standing to be favourable, with 35.8 per cent giving this party an unfavourable rating. 23.5 per cent have no opinion of the PNP," Anderson said.<br /><br />The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.<br /><br />"The majority, then, either have no opinion of the parties or view them negatively, a factor which feeds into the high incidence of persons who appear to be disenchanted with the political process and are, at this time, either disinclined to vote or not sure they will in upcoming elections," Anderson said.<br /><br />According to the pollster, this data is highly consistent with another poll conducted by his team for the CVM-TV Group between November 17 and 21.<br /><br />In that survey, the JLP had a favourability rating of 37 per cent, while the PNP's was 41 per cent. The unfavourability ratings of the parties stood at 41 per cent JLP and 35 per cent PNP.<br /><br />Said Anderson: "Efforts over the last month by both parties to create a more positive impression amongst Jamaicans have not borne fruit, again an indication that there is a hard core of the electorate who are not enamoured by either party and who might be difficult to convince to come out to vote if they are now disinclined to do so."<br /><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/PNP-has-slightly-better-favourability-rating_10434727#ixzz1hlrNtYcb<br /><br />*************<br /><br /><strong>Andrew ahead of Portia — Polls<br />JLP leader better to represent Ja locally and abroad</strong> <br /><br /> <br />Thursday, December 15, 2011<br /><br /><br />A majority of Jamaicans believe that Andrew Holness is a better leader than Portia Simpson Miller to represent the country locally and overseas. This was one of the findings of the latest Observer/Don Anderson Polls conducted between December 5 and 11, 2011. Anderson and his Market Research Services team interviewed 1,000 registered voters in all parishes in the island, covering over 150 different locations. The margin of error was plus or minus 3%.<br /><br />(L-R) HOLNESS... better to represent Jamaica. SIMPSON MILLER... trails Holness in leadership polls<br /> <br /><strong>Asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country overseas, 44.2 per cent of Jamaicans polled said the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader and Prime Minister Andrew Holness, compared with 38.9 per cent who said People's National Party (PNP) leader and former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.</strong><br /><br />When asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country locally, a smaller majority of 42.9 per cent said Holness against 41.3 per cent who chose Simpson Miller.<br /><br />"Empirical data has shown that perception of the respective leaders has been an important issue in party support in previous elections, especially in the 90s and early to mid 2000s when PJ Patterson and Edward Seaga were the respective leaders of the PNP and the JLP," Anderson said in his notes to the polls.<br /><br />He noted that the recent elevation to the higher office of prime minister of the "generally highly regarded Holness has boosted his favourability rating amongst Jamaicans to the point where he is now better perceived than PNP leader Simpson Miller..."<br /><br /><br />http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/elections/news/Andrew-ahead-of-Portia-JLP-leader-better-to-represent-Ja-locally-and-abroad_10393439<br /><br />**********<br /><br /><strong>JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls<br />BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com <br /><br /> <br />Thursday, November 10, 2011</strong><br /><br /><br />ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.<br /><br />The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP. <br /><br />The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.<br /><br />Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.<br /><br />The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.<br /><br />The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.<br /><br />The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.<br /><br />In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.<br /><br />In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.<br /><br />When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.<br /><br />The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1hOF8O9Nt<br /><br /><br />************<br /><br /><strong>Tuesday, November 22, 2011<br />Attitudinal Polling vs Opinion Polling <br />Attitudinal Polling Method<br />http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001 <br /><br />"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts. <br /><br />The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute" <br /><br /><br /><br />___________________________________ <br /><br />X-1 Phantom Researcher<br /><br />"2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research <br /><br />___________________________________ <br /><br /><br />2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version <br /><br /><br />Feb 6th, 2011 <br /><br />Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project <br /><br />Author X-1 <br /><br />I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved. <br /><br />This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache. <br /><br /><br />Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare) <br /><br /><br />Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature. <br /><br />The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated. <br /><br /><br />The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure <br /><br />The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings. <br /><br />Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology. <br /><br /><br />“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007) <br /><br /><br />Pureness Parameters <br /><br /><br />JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality. <br /><br />PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality. <br /><br />Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes. <br /><br />Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm <br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007 <br /><br />Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior. <br /><br />http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001 <br /><br />Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model. <br /><br />Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’. <br /><br />Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk. <br /><br /><br />Operational Variables: <br /><br />These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings. <br /><br /><br />Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class. <br /><br />Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals. <br /><br />Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy). <br /><br />Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable. <br /><br /><br />Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted. <br /><br />Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change. <br /><br /><br />Scaling/Measurement <br /><br />How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4. <br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Re-inforcement of Theory </strong><br />This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months.<strong> <br /><br />The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters (<strong><em>Johnson, Anderson & Boxill</em></strong>) riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; <em>but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’</em>. </strong><br /><br />Survey Data Inferential Findings <br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1. <br /><br />(Likert Scaling) <br /><br />http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php <br /><br />1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008 <br />Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006. <br />According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html <br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008 <br />Samuda, Shaw <br />On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings. <br />Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html <br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze <br />Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009 <br /><br />Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter <br /><br />Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers. <br />Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing. <br />The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday. <br />"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said. <br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />4. Bartlett defends office revamp <br />Published: Monday | October 12, 2009 <br />Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer <br />Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient. <br />Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br />5. We want and deserve more <br />Published: Monday | December 7, 2009 <br />Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it. <br />The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html <br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />6. Bruce Pays Big <br />Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010 <br />16 Comments <br /><br />After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled. <br />A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request. <br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />7. Erasing The Corruption Stain <br />Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010 <br />7 Commentsampbell <br />Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter <br />From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office. <br />Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />8. Blaine forms new political party <br />New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston <br />BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com <br />Thursday, August 05, 2010 <br /><br />THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc). <br />"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston. <br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />9. Cash Plus Drama <br />Published: Friday | January 14, 2011 <br />18 Comments <br /><br /><br />Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers <br />Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd. <br />"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy. <br />Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html <br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br />10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg <br />Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011 <br />9 Comments <br />Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File <br />Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited. <br />In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations. <br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design <br />Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm <br /><br />Attitudinal Survey Data <br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Total Attitudinal Scale Scores: <br /><br />Jlp = +1 <br /><br />Pnp = +5 <br /><br />Nnc = -1 <br /><br /><br />Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67 <br />Chart 1 <br /><br />-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5 <br />.....................0.............. (1.67) <br />In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ” <br /><br /><br />%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% <br /><br /><br /><br />(Survey using Proxy data) <br /><br /><br />Attitudinal Survey Data continuation… <br /><br /><br />11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll <br />Tuesday, May 03, 2011 <br /><br />Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June. <br />A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips. <br />The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter. <br />The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm. <br />In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people. <br />Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent. <br />The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year. <br />In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent. <br />At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign. <br />The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year. <br />In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent. <br />In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April. <br />Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges. <br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0 <br /><br /><br /><br />11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility <br />(57-26)=-31% <br /><br /><br />.................* <br />-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10 <br /><br /><br /><br />11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation <br />(49-38)=-11% <br /><br />.....................................* <br />-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10 <br /><br /><br /><br />Chart # 2Scale 10=100 <br /><br />..................... (-21%) [-31-11] <br />-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10 <br /><br /><br /><br />• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister. <br /><br /><br />• <em>Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.</em> <br /><br /><br />• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend. <br />• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern. <br />• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions. <br />• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter." </strong>X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-92154497447170322032011-12-22T12:04:00.000-08:002011-12-27T13:02:49.199-08:00Linear Correlation between Voter turnout % and WinnerIn the 2007 Election the voter turnout was 60% according to DOE Mr. Danville Walker. "Director of Elections Danville Walker yesterday's voter turnout was a modest 60.40 per cent"<br /><br />In analysing requisite data, it appears that the dividing winning threshold between a)voter turnout and b) election victory correlation, falls within the range of 60-67%. <br /><br />A low turnout will see a victory for one party, while a high turnout will see a victory for a different party. Low is defined as 59.6% or lower, high is defined as 66.6% or higher. 60-67% represents turnout could result in either party winning.<br /><br />*************<br /><br /><br /><strong>Why they won't vote<br />No party any better than the other, say most undecided voters</strong><br /> <br />Tuesday, December 27, 2011<br /><br /><br /><strong>ONE University of the West Indies lecturer is predicting a voter turnout of between 71 and 76 per cent come election day Thursday.</strong><br /><br />Anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle says his survey team has produced a 'snapshot' study based on a canvass of 480 poor, near-poor, upper and middle-class men and women from rural and urban Jamaica. <br /><br /><br />The study considered the opinions of some persons in rural Jamaica over the age of 35, and some from urban town centres who between the ages 18 to 34.<br /><br />The survey was conducted December 14 to 19, this year and took into account 56 constituencies across all parishes.<br /><br />Two questions were posed:<br /><br />1. Are you going to vote this election?<br /><br />- If No, why not?<br /><br />- If Yes, answer #2:<br /><br />2.When you go to vote this election, what will be your main motivation? (Respondents could not select more than three options).<br /><br />a. The party<br /><br />b. The party leader<br /><br />c. The candidate<br /><br />d. Issues/policies<br /><br />e. Gifts or money or the promise of any<br /><br />f. Other<br /><br />According to Dr Gayle, the results were divided into two sections: Why persons cannot, or may not vote, and why they are likely to vote. The researcher explained that, "though it was not requested, most persons gave tremendous details to support their decision."<br /><br />According to the Gayle research team data, 340 of the 480 persons surveyed, said they will vote come Thursday. It estimated the highest possible voter turnout as being 76 per cent -- if all voter-motivating factors are held ceteris paribus (if nothing changes).<br /><br />However, it could fall below 71 per cent given the fact that a number of persons who expressed an intention to vote may decide against doing so on the actual day.<br /><br />"Almost a quarter (24 per cent or 140 of the respondents) either cannot vote or have expressed that it is highly likely that they will not vote in the upcoming elections. Five percent of respondents are still undecided at this stage; but represent those who are likely to vote if something changes," the anthropologist said.<br /><br />Twenty-six persons expressed that they may make up their minds before the poll, (10 days away at the time of the survey) but they were hesitant to make a firm decision.<br /><br />Eight of these persons were waiting to hear how the parties will address the economy: "How dem going to pay back the $1.6 trillion (loaned by the IMF) or make ordinary people feed dem children."<br /><br />Six said they were JLP "but do not trust Andrew (Holness); five said they were PNP, "but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller); six said "none of the parties better", and a single respondent said he/she did not like his/her MP.<br /><br />"Ten of these persons are poor, nine are near poor, and seven are middle and upper classes; 17 are females, nine are males; 11, urban, 15, rural. The most distinct difference here is therefore gender -- women clearly dominate this small group -- wanting to vote, but waiting for something to convince them," was Dr Gayle's analysis.<br /><br />One hundred and fifteen persons surveyed who are on the voters list and, therefore, have a vote, said they won't take advantage of the opportunity.<br /><br />This is the critical group to assess, said Dr Gayle, noting that "It is made up of all the persons who have not expressed that they will be voting (140) minus those who are not on the voters list (25 or 18 per cent of this group).<br /><br />"By removing those who cannot vote, we are able to assess the major 'turn off' factors. It is important to note that a number of those who are not on the voters list are in that situation because they had little or no interest. Nonetheless, we have no clear data to assess the proportion, hence, the entire number of those who cannot vote (not on the voters list) are dropped from this analysis," said the anthropologist.<br /><br />Forty-nine per cent said they won't exercise their franchise because "None of the parties is any better". Fifteen per cent said "I am JLP, but don't trust Andrew (Holness)". Eight per cent said " I am PNP but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller). Eight per cent gave no reason for not voting. Seven per cent said they were still waiting for policy solutions. Seven per cent said "My party is too corrupt". Two per cent said they do not like their MP. Two per cent blamed the ruling party's young affiliate group for their decision, saying, "I am a JLP, but scared of G2K's direction". Another two per cent pointed to voter intimidation, saying they "fear to vote against party in garrison".<br /><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Why-they-won-t-vote_10460228#ixzz1hls2ApJCX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-35283796309153799752011-12-21T14:13:00.000-08:002011-12-23T11:13:55.117-08:00"Browning Please". The Big 'White Elephant' in the Room "Race, Gender & Class" JLPEXPLOITRACISMIt appears that the JLP has inadvertedly introduced "Race, Gender & Class" into the election by playing(patronizing)the audience in South St. Elizabeth ( a place universally associated with brownings) with their pretty woman bonnununus statement. <br /><br />Not sure how this will play out, as this is Jamaica and our brain washed heads are usually in the sand, as the general sentiment is: "we dont have a "race" problem in Jamaica, our issue is class" <br /><br />Oftentimes the correlation between Class and Race is not obvious i.e. they are 1st cousins; otherwise 6 and half dozen are the same. Race, Class and Gender is too sensitive to be causally treated in an election campaign. This is an unfortunate mis-step by the JLP leadership. <br /><br />The JLP can least afford to make this error, as racial divisions are obvious and exploitable; slippery slope Mr. Vaz....you should be more careful the demographic are not in your party's favour. Mr. Holness your party should issue an immediate apology clarifying the statements, B4 it gathers negative steam, which already started.<br /><br /><strong>Is the JLP willing to accept the votes of 'those' very, very black women that are not necessarily viewed as being 'pretty'; while simulatneously disqualifying them from being selected to represent the party? This is called </strong>'<strong>JLPEXPLOITRACISM</strong>' <br /><br /><br />************<br /><br /><strong>'Brownings, please'<br />Published: Sunday | September 11, 2011 204 Comments </strong><br /><br /><br /><br />Correction & Clarification<br /><br />The Gleaner wishes to reiterate and clarify that the picture of the model which appeared in The Sunday Gleaner of September 11, under the headline 'Brownings, please', was in no way meant to depict that the model in the photo in any way benefited from or was associated with the discriminatory practice described in the said story. The Gleaner regrets any inconvenience or embarrassment occasioned to the model by the publication. <br /><br />... Several local businesses asking state-owned employment agency for light-skinned trainees<br />Tyrone Reid, Enterprise Reporter <br /><br /><br /><br />A hundred and seventy-seven years after slavery was abolished in the British West Indies, Jamaica's national training agency - HEART Trust - still has to deal with colour-prejudiced employers who are requesting that trainees be brown or light-skinned as a prerequisite for employment in their firms. <br /><br />A highly placed source at HEART Trust told our news team that on the one hand, some employers note the discriminatory requests on forms provided by HEART Trust under a section that asks them to list specifications that the prospective trainee should meet. <br /><br />On the one hand, some employers spew out their bigoted requirement to the face of the HEART Trust's training agents or training support officers. "Some are brazen enough," the source said. <br /><br />"We have had certain firms that have required persons of a certain complexion," said the well-placed informant, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak with the media. <br /><br />"I was very blown by the request," said a HEART Trust employee who personally have dealt with clients making such requests. "We try our best not to (accommodate the discrimination) … sometimes we try to ignore the request," the employee added. <br /><br />Our news team understands that in a bid to discourage the discrimination, HEART Trust often drop entities that make such requests, from the list of establishments trainees are sent to for job experience. <br /><br />The colour-specific requests come from proprietors, personnel managers or the administrative staff who are asked to handle the process of securing trainees for the organisation. <br /><br />Meanwhile, The Sunday Gleaner source pointed out that the prejudice usually surfaces when employers are seeking trainees to fill "front counter staff" positions as those persons are deemed to be the face of the organisation. <br /><br />Noted psychologist Dr Leahcim Semaj, who is also CEO of the Job Bank - an entity that screens and assesses prospective employees for its corporate clients - said the skin-tone discrimination is still clear and present but has largely retreated underground. <br /><br />"It is usually not articulated. I have heard of it. Years ago it was more specific for front-line positions such as receptionists and those dealing specifically with clients. <br /><br />"There was a time in Jamaica that it (being of a light complexion) was one of the criteria to work in a bank," said Semaj. <br /><br />He added: "It still is (a problem). You can't blatantly come out and say it (because) Jamaica is still a black country (therefore) it is not something they can come out and say but they will find subtle ways." <br /><br />The psychologist explained that many people in Jamaica are still of the opinion that persons with lighter complexion are more attractive. <br /><br />tyrone.reid@gleanerjm.com<br /><br /><br />****************<br /><br /><strong>Women's group cries foul over JLP campaign statements<br />Published: Thursday | December 22, 2011 17 Comments </strong><br />Nadisha Hunter, Staff Reporter<br /><br />In the wake of recent statements made by members of the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), which zeroed in on the party's love for women, a coalition of women is demanding a clear shift in attitude and campaigning leading up to the general election.<br /><br />Recently, West Portland JLP candidate Daryl Vaz said during a mass rally in Junction, St Elizabeth, that the JLP is fielding "13 'boonoonoonus' pretty woman" in the election".<br /><br />Prime Minister Andrew Holness and JLP Deputy Leader Dr Christopher Tufton also weighed in on the love for women at the rally.<br /><br />The 51% Coalition said the JLP platform statements demean and undermine Jamaican women.<br /><br />This is the second time since the start of the week that concerns have been raised about the statements.<br /><br />The People's National Party Women's Movement had condemned the comments, saying the JLP candidates' statements were belittling of the contribution that women could and have made to the political process in Jamaica.<br /><br />The release by the groups was yesterday sent by Marcia Forbes, one-time political aide of former JLP leader and Prime Minister Bruce Golding.<br /><br />Demeaning<br /><br />"The statement coming from the JLP platform suggests that women candidates are not celebrated for their intelligence but only valued for looks, valued primarily as objects of men's love, without a focus on their multiple competencies," the statement read.<br /><br />"This includes our strong management and leadership skills, capacity and commitment to our families."<br /><br />The 51% Coalition, which references the percentage of persons in the population whose gender is female, suggested that women have been selected by the JLP as a result of beauty and body only, and a strategy to pull the female vote to the party.<br /><br />"This we find to be demeaning to female candidates, and to all Jamaican women. We insist that women participating in the political process are not to be seen as competitors in a contest about beauty and sexuality, but as persons seeking to be involved in serious nation building," the statement read.<br /><br />"We want to see respect for women and men of integrity who put themselves forward. We want to see practical proposals that will result in the early implementation of the National Policy on Gender Equality," the group said.<br /><br />"We want to have commitment to implement-ation of quotas that will see all public-sector boards, and the Senate having as members, no less than 40 per cent and no more than 60 per cent of either sex," it further stated.<br /><br />Among the persons who signed the release are the Association of Women's Organisations in Jamaica, Institute for Gender and Development Studies - Mona Unit, Women's Resource and Outreach Centre and Women's Media Watch Jamaica.<br /><br />nadisha.hunter@gleanerjm.comX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-10764029960855807512011-12-20T12:01:00.000-08:002011-12-21T14:13:24.522-08:00Election 2011 Prime Minister Debate12/20/2011 5pm Pre Debate<br /><br /><strong>"Portia vs Andrew tonight!<br />Debates Commission says all set for leadership debate<br /><br />Tuesday, December 20, 2011</strong><br /><br />THE Jamaica Debates Commission (JDC) says all is in place for tonight's leadership debate between Prime Minister Andrew Holness and Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller, the final before the December 29 general election.<br /><br />The debate, which begins at 9:00 pm, will be held at the Faculty of Law at the University of the West Indies, Mona before a studio audience of approximately 200 people made up of guests of the political parties, guests of the commission and the University of the West Indies. <br /><br />"A dress rehearsal for the event was held early on Monday where television production, protocol, security and operational areas were checked and finalised," the JDC said yesterday.<br /><br />For tonight's debate, there will be two questioners — Dionne Jackson-Miller of RJR and Franklin McKnight of IRIE FM/ZIP FM and the Northcoast Times. In place of a third questioner, independent members of the audience will be allowed to pose one in every three questions. The moderator is Dervan Malcolm of Power 106 FM.<br /><strong>The debate will focus on leadership issues which include matters of governance, a vision for the country, tackling corruption and economic development, among other areas.</strong><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Portia-vs-Andrew-tonight_10427205#ixzz1h6bWQ899<br /><br /><br />*********************<br /><br /><br />X-1<br /><br />The final debate is here 12/20/2011 9pm. Portia vs Andrew. Who will win the debate is a significant question, since polls and anecdotal reasoning have made an association/link between the 'undecided voter' and their eventual vote relative to the percieved winner of the debate. <br /><br />The media states that the debate will focus on: leadership issues which include matters of governance, a vision for the country, tackling corruption and economic development.<br /><br /><br />Before I offer an apriori conjecture of who will come out ahead using the stated topic, let me first delve into a couple of variables to support my conjecture:<br /><br /><br /><strong>Variable 1<br /><br />Education vs Experience</strong> <br /><br />Most people will agree that the best employees have both education, training and experience. Are there advantages education has over experience. Absolutely. Experience over education. Absolutely. <br /><br />Education means knowledge and experience means you know what to do with that knowledge. So with both, you’re perfect. However, this is relative. <br /><br />Research as in recent "Center for Creative Leadership study" indicate that only 10 percent of the knowledge is needed to become an effective manager is learned in the classroom, the other 90% comes from elsewhere including experience, personality, support structure, network etc. <br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Variable # 2<br /><br />The Female Factor</strong><br /><br />Obviously this debate will include a male and a female. This dynamic brings into play slippery slope social issue.<br /><br />a) Portia broaches the slippery slope if she comes off as too pushy and demanding<br /><br />b) Andrew broaches the slippery slope if he is percieved as disrespectful or condescending.<br /><br />Any slippage by either party will affect the perception of the winner in the general public's eye.<br /><br />______________<br /><br />Now, I proffer the following results apriori regarding the debate on the following topics using variable 1 and 2 as a basic for my analysis.<br /><br />1. <strong>leadership issues-Winner Portia</strong> <br /><br />As the education variable cancels each other.Andrew is not substantially more educated than Portia. Both possess degrees which validates that they have experienced and achieved the convention of education at the College level. <br /><br />Experience and training will enable Portia to 'outwomanneuver' Andrew in this area and finish a nod ahead of Andrew.<br /><br /><strong>2. Governance-Winner Portia</strong><br /><br />As the education variable cancels each other. Andrew is not substantially more educated than Portia. Both possess degrees which validates that they have experienced and achieved the convention of education at the College level.<br /><br />Experience and training will enable Portia to 'outwomanneuver' Andrew in the area of governance and finish a nod ahead of Andrew.<br /><br /><br /><strong>3. vision for the country-Winner Andrew</strong><br />Andrew will benefit from the youth variable and this is an essential component when discussing vision<br /><br /><strong>4. Tackling corruption-Winner Tie</strong><br /><br />Both are vulnerable in the area, however if Portia is skillful she maybe able to benefit from the newness of JNIP vs Trifuga. However, Andrew should be equally skillful to rebutt.<br /><br /><strong>5. Economic development-Winner Tie</strong><br /><br />Both should be able to regurgitate their Manifesto, which due to debate format contains a certain level of rhetorical reasoning and should facilitate statement which will be left up to party interest interpretation as oppose to real material process discussion.<br /><br /><strong>Overall, Portia should get the nod over Andrew in this debate as experience teaches wisdom and she possesses the greater level of experience.</strong> The question then will be: Does this performance transcend into actual votes?<br /><br />********************<br /><br /><strong>12/21/2011 Post Debate Analysis<br /><br />Nationwide gives debate to Holness but says Portia gave creditable performance<br /><br />Wednesday, December 21, 2011</strong><br /><br />LAST night’s political leadership debate was scored as a win for Prime Minister Andrew Holness by Nationwide Radio journalists Cliff Hughes and Damion Blake, while their colleague Emily Crooks opted to reserve her judgement on a victor until this morning, adding that the debate was anticlimatic.<br /><br />However, all three agreed that Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller gave a creditable performance, even as they pointed to weaknesses in some of her answers to questions on tough issues.<br /><br />“It was a spirited debate,” Hughes said in his post-debate discussion on Nationwide Radio, which broadcast the highly anticipated debate live. However, he said Holness won based on his command of the stage and the issues.<br /><br />“I think the opposition leader more than held her own tonight. She was obviously well prepared. She came there with her notes. But the weaknesses did come through from time to time,” added Hughes, one of Jamaica’s most respected journalists.<br /><br />He gave as an example Simpson Miller’s answer to a question on changing the Westminster system of government, saying that it “was reduced to real puff”.<br /><br />Simpson Miller, in response to the question posed by a member of the audience, said she thought it was time for Jamaica to change the system so that we can have our own Jamaican queen.<br /><br />Hughes, in his analysis, said that Holness lost an opportunity to score points in his rebuttal.<br /><br />Hughes and Blake also said that Simpson Miller showed a lack of understanding of how international agreements really work when she said<br /><br />that a Government led by her would renegotiate the IMF, JPS and JDIP<br /><br />contracts in two weeks. The verdict is still out on whether the much-touted leadership debate between Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller and Prime Minister Andrew Holness lived up to expectations.<br /><br />Already, some commentators, including callers to radio programmes held after the debate and persons who attended the debate at the Faculty of Law at the Mona Campus of the University of the West Indies, are of the view that the showdown did not materialise.<br /><br />Both Holness and Simpson Miller have also been accused of skirting some of the questions raised by journalists Franklin McKnight, Dionne Jackson-Miller, as well as from a select group of audience members.<br /><br />In addition, there were very few instances in which either debater rigorously challenged the other’s position, as happened in the team debate, which featured young politicians from both parties as well as in the economic and financial debate between Finance Minister Audley Shaw.<br /><br />However, all three gave her kudos for her response on the issue of homosexuals serving in the Cabinet.<br /><br />Holness, to whom the question was posed, sought to sidestep it with a long answer. However, Simpson Miller said she would appoint people to her Cabinet based on their ability and would go as far as having the buggery law reviewed.<br /><br />“One of the new things that came out was what I consider to be a substantial advancement of the PNP on the issue of homosexuality,” said Crooks. “For the first time I’ve heard a leader of the PNP saying 'I’m open to having people of whatever orientation depending on ability in my Cabinet and in fact I would have us look at the buggery law and ensure that people vote on their conscience in Parliament'.”<br /><br />All three journalists, however, said they found the structure of the debate restrictive, as it did not allow the leaders enough time to answer questions fully.<br /><br />“I think the Debates Commission is going to take a hit because the 60 minutes was awfully too limited for the leaders to go at it,” said Hughes. “You really needed 90 minutes, if not two hours to see who can stand up under the pressure, who can remain consistent, and to give them more time.”<br /><br />He said that part of the difficulty was that the moderator, who is under instruction, had to keep on interrupting when Holness and Simpson Miller were not finished answering the questions posed to them.<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Nationwide-gives-debate-to-Holness-but-says-Portia-gave-creditable-performance#ixzz1hD0kFntS<br /><br /><br />************<br /><br />X-1<br /><br />The nod in a boring debate went to Ms. Portia Simpson Miller as predicted, mainly due to the experience factor.<br /><br /><strong>1st Place: The Jamaica people for their participation via viewing and attention to this Leadership dabte.<br /><br />2nd Place: Portia Simpson Miller<br /><br />3rd Place: Andrew Holness<br /><br />4th Place: The Debate Commission</strong><br /><br />The Prime Minister appeared timid, rudderless, evasive and contradictory for the 'Big Cat' thats in control. He did not 'tek it to Portia' like he does on the campaign trail.<br /><br />In his opeing statement he declared that he is a post independence leader, but in response to a question he stated that Jamaica is not independent. Which is it Flippy or Floppy?<br /><br />The Prime Minister was not able to slam dunk Ms Miller and could not live up to his hype. The PNP gained points from the debate while the JLP lost points. The bar was set too high for Prime Minister Holness and his inexperience was salient, his handlers did him a disservice. It appeared that over-confidence was a liability.X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-8325497045537332742011-12-15T11:37:00.000-08:002012-01-03T08:18:33.979-08:00The Influence Variable of PollingX-1<br /><br /><strong>Acquiescence bias </strong>is a category of response bias in which respondents to a survey have a tendency to agree with all the questions or to indicate a positive connotation. Acquiescence is sometimes referred to as "yah-saying" and is the tendency of a respondent to agree with a statement when in doubt. This particularly is in the case of surveys or questionnaires that employ truisms, such as: "It is better to give than to receive" or "Never a lender nor a borrower be".<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/acquiescence-bias#ixzz1gdLLln9J<br /><br /><strong>Social desirability bias </strong>is the tendency of respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. It can take the form of over-reporting good behavior or under-reporting bad behavior. The tendency poses a serious problem with conducting research with self-reports, especially questionnaires. This bias interferes with the interpretation of interpreting average tendencies as well as individual differences<br /><br />______________________________________________<br /><br /><br /><strong>1. How does the above relate to the Jamaica 2011 Election.</strong> <br /><br />Recent Polling evidences data congregation around the same points of central tendencies i.e. JLP leads but both party remains in a statistical deadheat. Polls are acquising with their results and polling respondents are acquising based on social desirability bias.<br /><br />Why: The JLP does a very good job as the incumbent with the inherent advantages of forum and media in getting their message out. This message then forms the central 'talking points' of the general populace. Polls then reflect this central tendency.<br /><br /><strong>2. a) Water Melon Effect and b) Self Fulfilling Prophecy polling variable</strong> <br /><br />a) The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side)". <br /><br /><br /><br />b) A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior. <br /><br /><br /> <br />3. Data Gathering and analysis should always be treated with respect regardless of the environment of data gathering or the research known or unknown biases. With respect to the Jamaican election there appears to be three standard polls: Anderson, Boxill and Johnson. All three reflect a central tendency of statistical deadheat with the JLP slightly ahead but the PNP falls within the cone of error.<br /><br />3a. When the observation outlined in item # 3 is associated with the very potent effect of item #2; Self Fulfilling Prophecy and Water Mellon effect, we then arrive at a point of data congregating at the previously mention point of central tendency. This data congregation is statistically significant, regardless of how the data arrived at this juncture.<br /><br />4. It would appear that the "JLP's game changer decision" in replacing PM Golding with new PM Holness along with political PR strategies have made an impact on the 'likely' outcome of the election from a data analysis perspectives. However, this position is not static and with 14 days to go, the PNP could effectuate changes to this scenario. However, the present lack of electioneering PR will need to be changed or modified to be more forceful, precise, purposeful and targeted. <br /><br />5. The PNP precise targeting to reverse the data trend will need to be aimed at the uncommitted and the PNP diehards whom have acquised to the no need to vote as its all over or my vote will not count crowd. These two groups includes some of the data sets on which the Attitudinal analysis is based.<br /><br /><br /><strong>6. With dataset convergence which falls within the cone of sample errors there exist sufficient numbers within the group mentioned in item # 5 which has the potential to make the ultimate difference in the 2011 election result in favour of the PNP, as they would be able to draw numbers from familiar voters or potential voters, but this action needs a strategic and tactical visionary with a budget. </strong><br /><br />Scientifically, both a self-fulling prophecy variable and water mellon effect variable portrays significance in Election 2011. This significance is acknowledged by the morotorium on polling agreement by both parties as documented below.<br /><br /><br />7. Could all three pollsters be wrong in their predictions notwithstanding margin of error variable. Yes, absolutely (Dewey vs Truman: see below) and specifically that is why there is a "cone of margin of error". The PNP lagging numbers falls within this cone and mobilization of voters as discussed in item number 6 could be the difference. In this scenario "Margin of Error" would be a hot topic come post election. <br /><br /><strong>If there was ever a time for the polls to be turned upside down, 2011 Election is that time as all the variables are present in this one, the only 'if' is the strategic and tactical engagement of the PNP to accomplish this.</strong><br /><br /><br />____________________________________________<br /><br /><br />X-1:<br /><br />The Influence of Polls is acknowledge by this historic agreement as documented below.<br /><br />____________________________________________<br /><br /><br /><br />**********************<br /><br /><br /><strong>"Professor Hopeton Dunn<br />by Edmond Campbell, Senior Staff Reporter</strong><br /><br /><br />A HISTORIC pact has been signed among the media, political parties, the Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ) and the Broadcasting Commission to observe a campaign-free period of a full day when no political advertisements will be aired or published by the electronic and print media. <br />As part of the deal, <strong>no opinion-poll results </strong>should be released 24 hours ahead of the December 29 general election.<br />ECJ Chairman Professor Errol Miller hailed the accord as "one small step for the two commissions, one giant step for the country".<br />As part of the voluntary agreement, the political parties have pledged to halt political broadcasts and campaign advertising from midnight on December 27 in the electronic media and to provide no new campaign ads on the Internet.<br />No media ads<br />The print and electronic media have also voluntarily decided to discontinue publishing or airing political broadcasts and media campaign advertisements in a similar time frame just before the start of polling.<br />"This means that all electronic media organisations will stop carrying political campaign ads from midnight on December 27, through to the opening of polls at 7 a.m. on December 29," chairman of the Broadcasting Commission, Professor Hopeton Dunn, disclosed yesterday.<br />Addressing journalists during a press briefing hosted jointly by the ECJ and the Broadcasting Commission at the latter's offices on Knutsford Boulevard in New Kingston, Dunn pointed out that the agreement was also binding on affiliates of the political parties.<br />Giving details, he said the print media was not expected to publish political ads on December 28 and December 29.<br />He also advised that the political parties and their affiliates were not expected to campaign on social-media networks, such as Facebook and Twitter, during the stipulated hiatus.<br />The major political parties have also committed not to release the results of new opinion polls or any unscientific opinion surveys to the public within 48 hours of the start of voting in the general election.<br />No new poll results<br /><strong>"For their part, the media organisations have agreed that the results of such public-opinion polls or unscientific opinion surveys would not be released to the public in the 24-hour period prior to the start of polling in the elections,"</strong> Dunn added.<br />On the question of a breach of the agreement, Dunn made it clear that no sanctions have been attached. "It is an honour agreement and we expect it to be implemented in the spirit in which it is voluntarily agreed."<br />He said the agreement did not include normal editorials and public affairs articles by news organisations.<br />Miller argued that shame could be equally effective as conviction.<br />"When you voluntarily agree to something and sign to it, revelation that you have not honoured your word brings a certain amount of shame," he stressed.<br />edmond.campbell@gleanerjm.com<br /><br /><br /><br />*******************<br /><br /><br /><strong>JLP surges ahead<br />Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 88 Comments </strong> <br />Holness 36%<br />1 2 ><br />by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter<br />The big green machine being ridden by recently crowned champion jockey Andrew Holness has surged into the lead, gaining six percentage points in the past month, as the party most likely to win the December 29 general election.<br />But the heavyweight orange machine, ridden by former champion jockey Portia Simpson Miller, is not yet out of the race and, with two furlongs to go before they hit the finish line, it is still anybody's race.<br />That's the finding of the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson public-opinion poll conducted islandwide on December 10 and 12.<br />Johnson's team found that if the election were held today, 31 per cent of the voters would put their 'X' beside the bell, the symbol of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), while a further five per cent of the voters say they would probably vote JLP. <br /><strong>That gives the Holness-led party a solid 36 per cent support.</strong>For the People's National Party (PNP), 29 per cent of voters say they would definitely put their 'X' beside its symbol, the head. A further three per cent say they would probably vote for the PNP. <strong>That leaves the Simpson Miller-led party with 32 per cent support or four percentage points behind the JLP.</strong>With the poll having a sampling error of plus or minus four per cent, the parties are in a statistical dead heat, but what should worry the PNP is that this is the first time it has trailed the JLP in any Gleaner-Johnson poll since 2007.<br />The PNP's troubles are compounded by the fact that despite its campaigning over the past month, its support has remained at 32 per cent, which the Johnson team found when it tested the pulse of the nation in November.<br />In the meantime, the JLP has seen its support move from 29 to 36 per cent, a seven-percentage point gain since November.<br />The undecided population has made the expected decline as the country gets closer to election day, dropping from 13 per cent in November to nine per cent this time around, with all of those persons moving to the JLP.<br />The persons who say they will not vote also declined by two percentage points in the past month with the JLP again the beneficiary of that switch.<br />For the persons who say they will vote JLP, 34 per cent say that's because of tradition, 19 per cent say Holness deserves a chance, while 18 per cent say the party is better than the PNP.<br />An almost equal number of persons (36 per cent) say they will vote PNP because of tradition, 16 per cent say it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country and 10 per cent say the PNP is better than the JLP.<br />Of the persons who are undecided or will not vote, 24 per cent are not interested in politics, 15 per cent say neither of the two major political parties has helped them as individuals, and a combined 26 per cent say neither the PNP nor the JLP has helped the country and it will make no difference which is running the affairs of the State.<br />For the pollster Johnson, the latest numbers are consistent with the recent constituency polls that were commissioned by The Gleaner. He argued that the numbers should be cause for concern by the PNP.<br />"The last two weeks were good for the PNP and bad for the JLP with the JDIP revelations and the US plane controversy, but still this has not been reflected in more persons saying that they will be voting for the PNP," noted Johnson.<br />The latest poll has a sample size of 1,008 and was conducted in all 63 constituencies across Jamaica.<br />arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com<br />Share | <br /><br /><br />****************<br /><br /><br /><strong>Most Jamaicans want Andrew as PM<br />Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 49 Comments <br />by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter</strong><br /><br />Almost 50 per cent of Jamaicans believe they are worse off today than they were in 2007 when the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) was elected to form the government. <br />But that has not stopped a large plurality of Jamaicans from seeing the JLP as the better party to manage the affairs of state at this time.<br /><br /><br /><strong>A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson has found that 41 per cent of Jamaicans believe the JLP would do the better job of governing the country at this time. Thirty-six per cent of Jamaicans believe the Portia Simpson Miller-led People's National Party (PNP) would do a better job, while 23 per cent are undecided.</strong><br /><br />The majority of the voters (55 per cent) also believe that JLP leader Andrew Holness deserves to be returned as prime minister after the votes are counted come December 29, while 30 per cent say someone else should get the job.<br />Of those who say "stick with Andrew", 27 per cent say they have adopted this position because he deserves a chance, 27 per cent say because he is young and 10 per cent admire him for what they say are his good ideas.<br />The voters who want to see the back of Holness include 24 per cent who say he lacks experience, 12 per cent who say he is too young, 11 per cent who claim he cannot be trusted and 11 per cent who argue that he is the same as former JLP leader Bruce Golding.<br />Holness also continues to lead Simpson Miller as the person voters believe would do a better job as prime minister in today's Jamaica.<br />Forty-four per cent of the respondents told the Gleaner-Johnson team they believe Holness would be the better head of government while 35 per cent said Simpson Miller.<br />The nine percentage point gap between the two is almost unchanged from when the pollster asked a similar question in October.<br />The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was conducted on December 10 and 11 in all 63 constituencies. It has a sampling error of plus of minus three per cent and a sample size of 1,008.<br />Johnson will return to the streets to test the pulse of the nation on one more occasion before the December 29 general election.<br />arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com<br />No media ad campaigns, polls after December 27<br />Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 2 Comments<br /><br />*******<br /><br />http://history1900s.about.com/cs/trumanharry/a/deweytruman_2.htm<br /><br /><strong>Give 'Em Hell Harry vs. The Polls</strong> <br /><br /><strong>The polls, reporters, political writers - they all believed Dewey was going to win by a landslide.</strong> On September 9, 1948, Elmo Roper was so confident of a Dewey win that he announced there would be no further Roper Polls on this election. Roper said, "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things."2 <br />Truman was undaunted. He believed that with a lot of hard work, he could get the votes. Though it is usually the contender and not the incumbent that works hard to win the race, Dewey and the Republicans were so confident they were going to win - barring any major faux pas - that they decided to make an extremely low-key campaign. <br /><strong>Truman's campaign was based on getting out to the people. While Dewey was aloof and stuffy, Truman was open, friendly, and seemed one with the people. In order to talk to the people, Truman got in his special Pullman car, the Ferdinand Magellan, and traveled the country. In six weeks, Truman traveled approximately 32,000 miles and gave 355 speeches.3 </strong>On this "Whistle-Stop Campaign," <strong>Truman would stop at town after town and give a speech, have people ask questions, introduce his family, and shake hands.</strong> From his dedication and strong will to fight as an underdog against the Republicans, Harry Truman acquired the slogan, "Give 'em hell, Harry!"X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-75002212149830551732011-12-08T14:45:00.000-08:002011-12-08T15:19:00.427-08:00Mark Wignall: Is it Possible for a Biased Newspaper Writer to conduct an objective Poll?X-1<br /><br />Mark Wignall would have the 'uninitiated' believe that he is an objective Pollster, nothwithstanding his documented "disgraced polling track record"<br /><br />I describe Mark as a Newspaper Writer, referring to him as a Journalist would be wholly inaccurate. Now consider his 'storied' article below, then review his latest 'polling project' also below. <br /><br />You may then choose to scale <strong>Mark's degree of biasness </strong>on the Likert scale from -10 thru +10. Then you will be in a position to assist Mark in answering the question posed in the title of this blog.<br /><br /><br /><strong>-10______-5_________0________+5_______+10<br /> Bias only Slightly....... Neutral................ Extremely Bias</strong><br /><br />********************************<br /><br />Third parties - comic relief or sideshow?<br /><strong>MARK WIGNALL</strong><br /> <br />Thursday, December 08, 2011<br /><br />To the man and woman at street level, the two main parties that have shared political power since 1944 — the PNP and the JLP — are known more for their warts, boils and unholy alliances with a destructive subculture than they are known for development of the people, the economy and the country's infrastructure.<br /><br />More than the JLP, the PNP, which in its last run occupied the seat of power for 18 1/2 years between February 1989 to September 2007, should at this time be like Wray and Nephew white rum in that its fame should have preceded it and it should not have to advertise. More than the JLP, it should have created precedence in economic growth as it held power at a time when the region and the rest of the world were enjoying record growth rates. The PNP can make no such claims. <br /><br /><br />Peter Towsend like EarL Delisser and Mike Williams cannot reasonably expect to win any seats or score anywhere near 5,000 votes islandwide.<br /> Peter Towsend like EarL Delisser and Mike Williams cannot reasonably expect to win any seats or score anywhere near 5,000 votes islandwide. 1/1 <br /><br /><br />More than the JLP, in its over 18 years when it had time to research the criminal underworld, it should have broken the back of organised crime. The PNP can make no such claim, as during its run Jamaica became the murder capital of the world.<br /><br />During the PNP's run, it engaged in a deliberate swelling of the ranks of the public sector with no commensurate growth in efficiencies. In the area of housing solutions and development of the country's main highways, the PNP stood out. It must be credited with that, but any party which had a run of over 18 years should have had more success stories to its name.<br /><br />In this the period of blame and counter blame, especially where the world is entering a dangerous phase akin to another recession (as if the first one had been solved) and large corporations are laying off workers, the PNP in opposition now has all the answers which eluded it in its over 18 years in power.<br /><br />Both political parties first will be going after the most gullible, that is, their robotic diehards. In the hope that we have a constituency of politically sophisticated people who have never allied themselves to anything but policy successes, both the JLP and the PNP will be hoping to snare those after.<br /><br />Are there legitimate policy solutions to be found in the ranks of the third parties? Betty Ann Blaine's NNC seems to believe that with God all things are possible, so her possibilities are to be found in her exhortation to the people not to vote until a raft of problems are solved. Which is probably her way of saying that her party is nowhere near ready, so the people should wait another 20 years until it is.<br /><br />I congratulate the NDM and the Marcus Garvey People's Political Party (MGPPP) for throwing their hat in the ring and doing what political parties do - participate in elections. Now I do not believe that president of the NDM, Earl deLisser, Chairman Peter Townsend and Gen Sec Mike Williams reasonably expect to win any seats or score anywhere near 5,000 votes islandwide, but it is a political party and it must make more than its mouth available to the people. Meanwhile, Betty Ann Blaine of the New Nation Coalition (NNC) will be going to the mountaintop to meet with God. I wish her well.<br /><br />Had this country reached the educational level and the brand of sophistication needed to examine ccritically all aspects of our polity, third parties would have much better chances at the polls. In fact, were that so, even the third parties would take themselves more seriously than they do now.<br /><br />The leadership of the PNP has been characterised by sound bites and it is rare that Simpson Miller has issued anything other than, "Wi ready" or "Victory, victory". While there are places for that kind of political rant, it ought to come in the back end, after hard policy issues and genuine critiques of the ruling JLP have been made, but she is what she is.<br /><br />In fact, apart from a few glitches from the new PM Andrew Holness, the platform announcements from the JLP leader have been basically sound, riveted and mostly an invitation to the electorate to examine both parties and make a choice. Meanwhile, what we have been hearing from the PNP leader are words to the effect that Holness will be the shortest-serving PM.<br /><br />One of my most faithful readers e-mailed me recently. He wrote, "I see from reading the Observer and Gleaner that the election season is in full swing. I read an article in the Observer, December 7 where Mrs Simpson Miller was attacking the credibility of the PM. More of the same.<br /><br />"How about telling those gathered what the PNP plan is to cure the economic and social ills facing the nation. What is the PNP's solution? But then again, she is from the "old guard" type of politics and clearly is not capable of new political learning.<br /><br />'While the PNP faced scandals when it was in power, it has never faced a scandal like the "Dudus" affair. If the PNP loses the election, that would be two losses for Mrs Simpson Miller as party leader and that if nothing else would be the signal for her to go. Also, if the JLP wins, it would be an amazing comeback from apparent political doom.<br /><br />"Mind you, I am a PNP supporter from the time I was young, the glory days of Manley and the 1970s. But the present PNP leadership, especially Mrs Simpson Miller, through to Mr Davies, Mr Pickersgill and Mr Nicholson seem weak and out of touch too; they do not appeal to me at all and I cannot support them in good conscience. Mr Phillips I admire, but as long as Mrs Simpson Miller a 'run tings' I cannot support the PNP."<br /><br />The prime minister needs to clarify his statement on media bias. Although it is quite clear that the media are mostly PNP friendly, Mr Holness must be aware that during the PNP's long run, it had the time to infiltrate all organisations. Indeed, the PNP even absorbed almost all of the firebrands who were part of Trevor Munroe's now defunct Workers Party of Jamaica (WPJ) in the 1970s and those in the union offshoot of the party, the UAWU.<br /><br />The JLP begins with more garrisons aligned against it and more of those in the media arrayed in favour of the PNP. In any case, the PM is someone I know and he has never struck me as being hostile to the media. He needs to clarify his position.<br /><br />As the season heats up, I am heartened by the friendly one-on-one, candidate vs candidate hosted by Nationwide radio. It is a huge difference to the open hostility which was a feature of the 1970s politics. Maybe there is hope for us, after all.<br /><br />I would love to see Nationwide interview more of those from the third parties so that we can determine if they are anything more than stand-up comedians.<br /><br />observemark@gmail.com<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />POST A COMMENT<br /><br /><br />Mark Forbes<br />12/8/2011<br />Wignall, stop behaving like a pol. Danville Walker is one so he expects to benefit from the people's ignorance. You are a journalist so you should benefit from their education. Ja. never experienced the global economic boom for the same reason that 90% of the pop. didn't benefit from the JLP's much vaunted 60's economic growth, which still left the country in debt in 1972: Our leaders, both pol and business, never saw fit to position the country to fully benefit from FDI. Until it is too late. <br /><br />Mark Forbes<br />12/8/2011<br />Wignall, your bias is so overwhelming that the JLP should see it as cancelling out the bias they see in all other parts of the media. If it wasn't so serious it would be laughable to see you now arguing that the JLP is the lesser evil, when 4 short years ago they were the ideal. Seeing as how you clearly recognise the downward path of the JLP, shouldn't you be grading on a scale? If they win the election you are going to need one in 2016. Lesser will not do then, it will have to be degrees. <br /><br />mango brains<br />12/8/2011<br />Wignall has no credibility whatsoever. Does he try to give a balanced presentation of the gains and setbacks during the PNP's tenure? No. Just rubbish.<br />What about a balanced look at the JLP's four years? Nothing but propaganda.<br />I guess he's towing the line of the newspaper. But he certainly doesn't deserve any respect. The other issue is that his writing isn't funny or entertaining. Nothing is wrong with having your biased perspective, but at least write well. All the quoting of readers is dumb. <br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/Third-parties---comic-relief-or-sideshow_10342828#ixzz1fzBpN4W8<br /><br /><br />********************<br /><br /><strong>Battle for Central Manchester heats up<br />JLP poll suggests Walker making inroads, PNP canvass says Bunting has a clear lead<br />BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor</strong> — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver.com <br /> <br />Sunday, December 04, 2011<br /><br /><br /> <br /><br />NOT three weeks after formally announcing his candidacy as the JLP's man in Central Manchester, Danville Walker is said to be making serious inroads into the constituency which has been held by the PNP's Peter Bunting since 2007.<br />It was a flu-plagued Walker who spoke to the Sunday Observer over a week ago, his illness, a testament, he claimed, to the fact that he hasn't left the constituency since his formal entry to politics and that he had been trodding the hills and valleys of the cool climes of Manchester continuously. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Danville Walker campaigning in Manchester last week.<br /> <br /> 1/2 <br />"My job is to run as hard as I can and don't look back. I just run the race and hope that I win when I reach the finish line," said Walker.<br />That race, according to his party, is paying dividends already.<br />The results of an internal poll conducted early last month by the JLP claim that more persons in key sections of the constituency, including traditional PNP strongholds, are showing strong support for the JLP newcomer compared to the PNP's Bunting.<br />The survey, a copy of which was obtained by the Sunday Observer, was conducted between November 5 and 9 across 22 communities in all four electoral divisions in the constituency, namely:<br />* Bellefield - 5 communities - 86 interviews;<br />* Knockpatrick - 5 communities - 112 interviews;<br />* Royal Flat - 5 communities - 126 interviews; and<br />* Mandeville - 7 communities - 126 interviews<br /><br /><br /><strong><strong>Commissioned pollster, Mark 'Rice & Peas' Wignall</strong>, used a team of five interviewers and interviewed a total of 450 voting age adults in the constituency. Those interviewed (52 per cent male, 48 per cent female) were said to be a close match in terms of the age and occupational profile of voters in the constituency.<br />According to the survey, the sample margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.<br />The survey shows that in Knockpatrick, 42 per cent of voters said they would give their vote to the JLP, while 40 per cent said they would give it to the PNP. Twenty-one per cent refused to say.<br />In Royal Flat, the breakdown, according to the JLP internal poll, was 44 per cent in favour of the JLP and 40 per cent for the PNP, while 16 per cent refused to say.<br />In the capital of Manchester, the PNP appeared to have a slight lead in terms of support, with 41 per cent of voters saying they would give the nod to the Opposition, while 40 per cent said they preferred to vote for the ruling JLP. Nineteen per cent declined to state who their preference was.<br />In Bunting's stronghold of Bellefield, the JLP appeared to have made the least inroads, garnering 32 per cent of voter support there, compared to the PNP's 47 per cent.</strong>Walker admitted during a subsequent interview with the Sunday Observer that his plan for this particular area had not been as successful as he had wished, but nonetheless declared he had significant support even there.<br />"The polls show in the PNP stronghold of Bellefield, they (the PNP) are a little stronger than us, but we don't care, we will work hard in Bellefield also," said Walker. "Support is there too, the support is growing. The trick is to get them to the polls," said the JLP challenger for the Central Manchester seat.<br />"Mr Bunting clearly believes he is the only person with common sense. The electorate are not as dumb as he feels they are," said Walker derisively.<br />He insisted that most of the grave problems facing the electorate in the constituency he seeks to lead failed to improve under Bunting who, he suggested, needs to have his hand held by more experienced PNP officials.<br />"After four years in the seat, you have to go for John Junor... to run for your mama, John Junor, to come hold your hand while you walk through your constituency...," Walker taunted, alluding to claims that the MP has not been a regular sight in some areas; something the JLP internal poll also points to:<br />"His (Bunting) performance ratings are consistent with MPs who fail to visit their constituencies often. His 'good' ratings are 38 per cent while his 'poor' ratings are 49 per cent. It ought to be said that Bunting's good ratings are somewhat better than this researcher has seen in polls in three constituencies," read the JLP survey summary.<br />But Bunting, when contacted for comment, dismissed Walker's statement about needing Junor's help.<br />"That's just petty. John Junor maintains a practice in the constituency, has maintained one for the last four years. He is the parish campaign co-ordinator for the PNP and that's why he is there," said Bunting.<br />"I welcome his participation in the campaign and we work together as a team and that is how the PNP operates."<br />Junor corroborated this in a subsequent call to the Sunday Observer, comparing his role with Bunting to that being played by former JLP general secretary Karl Samuda for Walker in the constituency.<br />Walker also took additional shots at his opponent declaring that Bunting seemed to be in a race to ascend to the leadership of the Opposition party, with the constituents suffering as a result.<br />"Mr Bunting is in a leadership race. I want to make sure he has all the time in the world to concentrate on that leadership race," he said.<br />But Bunting dismissed the assertion. "That is just a shallow attempt to create some division within the PNP and I won't dignify the comment with a further response," he said.<br />However, Walker said the difficulty his opponent has is trying to convince the constituents that another four years with him at the helm will be any different than the previous years. Plus, he said, Bunting is up against a candidate that knows how to work, harkening back to his public sector stints as director of elections and commissioner of customs and his image as a man who gets the job done.<br />The survey also indicated that "35 per cent of respondents see it as a 'good move' for Walker to be running on a JLP ticket. This is supported almost equally by swing voters, the uncommitted, and likely JLP voters. Twenty-four per cent see it as a 'bad move', but expected. That is mostly supported by those likely to vote for the PNP."<br />The survey seems to back Walker up on this with 31 per cent of those polled in the constituency recorded as having a favourable view of him as a former head of the Electoral Office of Jamaica. Overall, 31 per cent of respondents have a favourable view of him. Thirty-six per cent of the uncommitted have a favourable view of him, while 40 per cent of JLP voters have similar views.<br />Although Walker enjoys a high profile nationally, the jury is still out in the constituency in terms of making a definitive judgement of him, the survey said.<br />Those who have expressed an unfavourable view of him (11 per cent) are, in the main, strong PNP voters/supporters who allege that he assisted in stealing the election for the JLP in 2007 and that he is untrustworthy.<br />Bunting was confident that he has every possibility of eradicating any bounce the JLP may have recently seen.<br />"The Labour Party in the constituency would have got their bounce from two things — from the changing of the prime minister and the getting of a candidate which they hadn't had for some time," he said. "Those two things would have given them a bounce in late October, whenever those changes took place. My expectation is that by the time the elections are held that would have dissipated... I don't think there is much more bounce that they are going to get.<br />He sought to pour cold water on the JLP's mass meeting planned for this evening in Mandeville square where Prime Minister Holness is expected to announce the election date.<br />"This meeting is just about the JLP trucking in or busing in a whole heap of people from across the island, so really this is not going to reflect the Central Manchester crowd," he said.<br />In the meantime, Walker has expressed reservations that with his perceived progress, his opponent's supporters might resort to more serious deterrents than before, referring to the vandalism of his billboard within days of its erection in Mandeville.<br />"The one concern I have is their desperation, which, in the past, has led them to do desperate things. They started with my billboard," Walker said.<br />But this elicited a swift retort from Bunting.<br />"When the Labour Party came though on Wednesday and they destroyed Mykael Phillips' billboard in Mile Gully, why didn't he demand that his side replace the billboard? he asked. "I think he is being hypocritical and that he is being irresponsible with his statements about expectation of sabotage, and I can't help wondering if this is the pretext for more to come.<br />"We saw what happened in 2007, where my campaign vehicle was riddled with AK-47 bullets and four of my supporters around me were murdered. So I beg him, please don't start creating the environment for that," said Bunting.<br />The JLP survey, though concluding that the party had great potential to meet its target of digging the incumbent from his seat, also warned the party that it cannot take for granted that the PNP's support in the key constituency has stalled.<br />"While general polling over the last year would tend to support that trend, in the Central Manchester constituency, the high-profile incumbent in Peter Bunting will be pulling out all stops to retain his seat," the survey said.<br />That is something that Bunting himself told the Sunday Observer.<br />"The team that is going to be more effective campaigners between now and the election, and that has the more efficient organisation, will win," he said. "I think we have done our work in terms of building our organisation. Mr Walker has been on the ground now without my being able to be there full time, because I have Parliament, I have the electoral commission, I have committees of Parliament, (plus) all the other responsibilities I have.<br />"But you know, when I get on the ground when the formal campaign has started, I am going to try to ensure that the people get the message — hold those accountable for issues that are important to them, those who have done nothing to create jobs in the country. Those who have mismanaged the spending, why the roads are bad. All the issues that people have pointed out in the poll. My job is to ensure that I communicate to them that this Government is responsible for that and that is who they must pass judgement on," he said.<br />Bunting's successes also cannot be dismissed, the summary offers.<br />"Those who say they intend to vote for him cite 'it's my party', 'tradition' and, to a much lesser extent, Bunting's likeability. In that judgement, he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of his personality's likely influence on the final vote," the survey summarises, noting that organisation and funding will be key, and that these are areas Bunting is noted for.<br />Junor, as the PNP's campaign director for the central region, said the PNP has completed its own internal canvass of the seat, which shows a clear lead for its candidate.<br />"We are now in the stage where the analysis indicates a clear lead for Bunting in the constituency, and I'm not talking a clear lead anywhere near his margin for the last time (2007 elections). I'm talking over 1,000 (votes)," said Junor.<br />"Canvasses done in that constituency have been remarkably accurate," he insisted, asserting that the party has never been as organised in the constituency as it is at this point prior to Nomination Day. He said the PNP had been able to "predict its results within margins of 14-28 per cent".<br />Notwithstanding the PNP canvass, the JLP internal survey concludes that Walker's perceived competence as a public servant, his ability to get the job done, and the need to give the new Prime Minister Holness a 'try', are essentially the factors that the JLP needs to exploit, along with a superior organisational machinery, if it wants to wrest the Central Manchester seat from the PNP.<br />The survey team concludes it is a winnable seat for the JLP.<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Battle-for-Central-Manchester-heats-up_10308804#ixzz1faO96w8h<br /><br /><br />X-1:<br />"Water Mellon Strategy" being used by Mark Wignall. The strategy does have potential, but it maybe unethical considering Mark's position.X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-84763955835871106952011-12-04T09:09:00.000-08:002011-12-04T09:30:07.919-08:00Mark Wignall: The Rice & Peas Pollster enters the RacePublicly disgraced <strong>'Rice and Peas Pollster Mark Wignall' </strong>has made a not so grand and predictable entry into the Political electioneering campaign on behalf of JLP'S Danville Walker in Central Manchester. <br /><br />Mark brings with him the "Mcdonalds polling method". This method is best described as a scientific vote buying methodology. How does this work, see below.<br /><br />Coincidentially, Professor Gayle recently completed a survey on vote buying with elements of swapping food for votes. This may very well explain why Mark stealthly parachuted into the Manchester race, following closely in the footsteps of his boss Mr Walker who entered bearing gifts of cars for the Police. Wow, some people dislike this type of obvious 'buy and sell' transparency.<br /><br /><br />__________________________<br /><br />"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'. <br /><br />As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways: <br /><br />1) channel social agendas in a certain direction <br />2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction <br />3) influence social agendas in a certain direction <br />4) influence public policy <br />5) lead the people in a certain direction or <br /><br />Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design, 'McDonalds polling' with its sole purpose is to yield a certain type of outcome. <br /><br />The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior.<br /><br />__________________________________<br /><br />Battle for Central Manchester heats up<br />JLP poll suggests Walker making inroads, PNP canvass says Bunting has a clear lead<br />BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver.com <br /> <br />Sunday, December 04, 2011<br /><br /><br /> <br /><br />NOT three weeks after formally announcing his candidacy as the JLP's man in Central Manchester, Danville Walker is said to be making serious inroads into the constituency which has been held by the PNP's Peter Bunting since 2007.<br />It was a flu-plagued Walker who spoke to the Sunday Observer over a week ago, his illness, a testament, he claimed, to the fact that he hasn't left the constituency since his formal entry to politics and that he had been trodding the hills and valleys of the cool climes of Manchester continuously. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Danville Walker campaigning in Manchester last week.<br /> <br /> 1/2 <br />"My job is to run as hard as I can and don't look back. I just run the race and hope that I win when I reach the finish line," said Walker.<br />That race, according to his party, is paying dividends already.<br />The results of an internal poll conducted early last month by the JLP claim that more persons in key sections of the constituency, including traditional PNP strongholds, are showing strong support for the JLP newcomer compared to the PNP's Bunting.<br />The survey, a copy of which was obtained by the Sunday Observer, was conducted between November 5 and 9 across 22 communities in all four electoral divisions in the constituency, namely:<br />* Bellefield - 5 communities - 86 interviews;<br />* Knockpatrick - 5 communities - 112 interviews;<br />* Royal Flat - 5 communities - 126 interviews; and<br />* Mandeville - 7 communities - 126 interviews<br /><br /><br /><strong>Commissioned pollster, Mark 'Rice & Peas' Wignall</strong>, used a team of five interviewers and interviewed a total of 450 voting age adults in the constituency. Those interviewed (52 per cent male, 48 per cent female) were said to be a close match in terms of the age and occupational profile of voters in the constituency.<br />According to the survey, the sample margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.<br />The survey shows that in Knockpatrick, 42 per cent of voters said they would give their vote to the JLP, while 40 per cent said they would give it to the PNP. Twenty-one per cent refused to say.<br />In Royal Flat, the breakdown, according to the JLP internal poll, was 44 per cent in favour of the JLP and 40 per cent for the PNP, while 16 per cent refused to say.<br />In the capital of Manchester, the PNP appeared to have a slight lead in terms of support, with 41 per cent of voters saying they would give the nod to the Opposition, while 40 per cent said they preferred to vote for the ruling JLP. Nineteen per cent declined to state who their preference was.<br />In Bunting's stronghold of Bellefield, the JLP appeared to have made the least inroads, garnering 32 per cent of voter support there, compared to the PNP's 47 per cent.<br />Walker admitted during a subsequent interview with the Sunday Observer that his plan for this particular area had not been as successful as he had wished, but nonetheless declared he had significant support even there.<br />"The polls show in the PNP stronghold of Bellefield, they (the PNP) are a little stronger than us, but we don't care, we will work hard in Bellefield also," said Walker. "Support is there too, the support is growing. The trick is to get them to the polls," said the JLP challenger for the Central Manchester seat.<br />"Mr Bunting clearly believes he is the only person with common sense. The electorate are not as dumb as he feels they are," said Walker derisively.<br />He insisted that most of the grave problems facing the electorate in the constituency he seeks to lead failed to improve under Bunting who, he suggested, needs to have his hand held by more experienced PNP officials.<br />"After four years in the seat, you have to go for John Junor... to run for your mama, John Junor, to come hold your hand while you walk through your constituency...," Walker taunted, alluding to claims that the MP has not been a regular sight in some areas; something the JLP internal poll also points to:<br />"His (Bunting) performance ratings are consistent with MPs who fail to visit their constituencies often. His 'good' ratings are 38 per cent while his 'poor' ratings are 49 per cent. It ought to be said that Bunting's good ratings are somewhat better than this researcher has seen in polls in three constituencies," read the JLP survey summary.<br />But Bunting, when contacted for comment, dismissed Walker's statement about needing Junor's help.<br />"That's just petty. John Junor maintains a practice in the constituency, has maintained one for the last four years. He is the parish campaign co-ordinator for the PNP and that's why he is there," said Bunting.<br />"I welcome his participation in the campaign and we work together as a team and that is how the PNP operates."<br />Junor corroborated this in a subsequent call to the Sunday Observer, comparing his role with Bunting to that being played by former JLP general secretary Karl Samuda for Walker in the constituency.<br />Walker also took additional shots at his opponent declaring that Bunting seemed to be in a race to ascend to the leadership of the Opposition party, with the constituents suffering as a result.<br />"Mr Bunting is in a leadership race. I want to make sure he has all the time in the world to concentrate on that leadership race," he said.<br />But Bunting dismissed the assertion. "That is just a shallow attempt to create some division within the PNP and I won't dignify the comment with a further response," he said.<br />However, Walker said the difficulty his opponent has is trying to convince the constituents that another four years with him at the helm will be any different than the previous years. Plus, he said, Bunting is up against a candidate that knows how to work, harkening back to his public sector stints as director of elections and commissioner of customs and his image as a man who gets the job done.<br />The survey also indicated that "35 per cent of respondents see it as a 'good move' for Walker to be running on a JLP ticket. This is supported almost equally by swing voters, the uncommitted, and likely JLP voters. Twenty-four per cent see it as a 'bad move', but expected. That is mostly supported by those likely to vote for the PNP."<br />The survey seems to back Walker up on this with 31 per cent of those polled in the constituency recorded as having a favourable view of him as a former head of the Electoral Office of Jamaica. Overall, 31 per cent of respondents have a favourable view of him. Thirty-six per cent of the uncommitted have a favourable view of him, while 40 per cent of JLP voters have similar views.<br />Although Walker enjoys a high profile nationally, the jury is still out in the constituency in terms of making a definitive judgement of him, the survey said.<br />Those who have expressed an unfavourable view of him (11 per cent) are, in the main, strong PNP voters/supporters who allege that he assisted in stealing the election for the JLP in 2007 and that he is untrustworthy.<br />Bunting was confident that he has every possibility of eradicating any bounce the JLP may have recently seen.<br />"The Labour Party in the constituency would have got their bounce from two things — from the changing of the prime minister and the getting of a candidate which they hadn't had for some time," he said. "Those two things would have given them a bounce in late October, whenever those changes took place. My expectation is that by the time the elections are held that would have dissipated... I don't think there is much more bounce that they are going to get.<br />He sought to pour cold water on the JLP's mass meeting planned for this evening in Mandeville square where Prime Minister Holness is expected to announce the election date.<br />"This meeting is just about the JLP trucking in or busing in a whole heap of people from across the island, so really this is not going to reflect the Central Manchester crowd," he said.<br />In the meantime, Walker has expressed reservations that with his perceived progress, his opponent's supporters might resort to more serious deterrents than before, referring to the vandalism of his billboard within days of its erection in Mandeville.<br />"The one concern I have is their desperation, which, in the past, has led them to do desperate things. They started with my billboard," Walker said.<br />But this elicited a swift retort from Bunting.<br />"When the Labour Party came though on Wednesday and they destroyed Mykael Phillips' billboard in Mile Gully, why didn't he demand that his side replace the billboard? he asked. "I think he is being hypocritical and that he is being irresponsible with his statements about expectation of sabotage, and I can't help wondering if this is the pretext for more to come.<br />"We saw what happened in 2007, where my campaign vehicle was riddled with AK-47 bullets and four of my supporters around me were murdered. So I beg him, please don't start creating the environment for that," said Bunting.<br />The JLP survey, though concluding that the party had great potential to meet its target of digging the incumbent from his seat, also warned the party that it cannot take for granted that the PNP's support in the key constituency has stalled.<br />"While general polling over the last year would tend to support that trend, in the Central Manchester constituency, the high-profile incumbent in Peter Bunting will be pulling out all stops to retain his seat," the survey said.<br />That is something that Bunting himself told the Sunday Observer.<br />"The team that is going to be more effective campaigners between now and the election, and that has the more efficient organisation, will win," he said. "I think we have done our work in terms of building our organisation. Mr Walker has been on the ground now without my being able to be there full time, because I have Parliament, I have the electoral commission, I have committees of Parliament, (plus) all the other responsibilities I have.<br />"But you know, when I get on the ground when the formal campaign has started, I am going to try to ensure that the people get the message — hold those accountable for issues that are important to them, those who have done nothing to create jobs in the country. Those who have mismanaged the spending, why the roads are bad. All the issues that people have pointed out in the poll. My job is to ensure that I communicate to them that this Government is responsible for that and that is who they must pass judgement on," he said.<br />Bunting's successes also cannot be dismissed, the summary offers.<br />"Those who say they intend to vote for him cite 'it's my party', 'tradition' and, to a much lesser extent, Bunting's likeability. In that judgement, he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of his personality's likely influence on the final vote," the survey summarises, noting that organisation and funding will be key, and that these are areas Bunting is noted for.<br />Junor, as the PNP's campaign director for the central region, said the PNP has completed its own internal canvass of the seat, which shows a clear lead for its candidate.<br />"We are now in the stage where the analysis indicates a clear lead for Bunting in the constituency, and I'm not talking a clear lead anywhere near his margin for the last time (2007 elections). I'm talking over 1,000 (votes)," said Junor.<br />"Canvasses done in that constituency have been remarkably accurate," he insisted, asserting that the party has never been as organised in the constituency as it is at this point prior to Nomination Day. He said the PNP had been able to "predict its results within margins of 14-28 per cent".<br />Notwithstanding the PNP canvass, the JLP internal survey concludes that Walker's perceived competence as a public servant, his ability to get the job done, and the need to give the new Prime Minister Holness a 'try', are essentially the factors that the JLP needs to exploit, along with a superior organisational machinery, if it wants to wrest the Central Manchester seat from the PNP.<br />The survey team concludes it is a winnable seat for the JLP.<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Battle-for-Central-Manchester-heats-up_10308804#ixzz1faO96w8h<br /><br /><br />______________<br /><br />Vote-buying intensifies, survey finds<br />Some Jamaicans said selling their franchise for mackerel and rice<br />BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver<br /> <br />Sunday, December 04, 2011<br /><br /><br /> <br /><br />DESPITE a recent wave of rejection of vote-buying by candidates running for seats in the upcoming general election, Jamaicans are still selling their votes; in some cases for as little as $500, a new study has found.<br />University of the West Indies anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle, in a 'snapshot' study done between November 23 and 30, 2011, canvassed the opinions of 240 young men and women in urban and rural Jamaica across 12 parishes, including 27 constituencies. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Supporters of the ruling Jamaica Labour Party at their annual conference this year and supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party at this year’s annual conference.<br /> <br /> 1/2 <br />The respondents were grouped by age and geography with 30 rural males between 18 and 34 years old and 30 rural males over the age of 35 interviewed. Thirty urban males between 18 and 34, and 30 urban males over 35 were also surveyed. The same features distinguished female respondents, ie 30 rural females 18 to 34 years old and 30 rural females over the age of 35 were included in the survey. Also, 30 urban females 18 to 34 years and 30 urban females older than 35 years were surveyed.<br />The surveyors asked the respondents the following questions:<br />1. Have you ever witnessed persons receiving gifts or money from politicians at election time?<br />2. What do they normally receive?<br />3. When was the last time you witnessed such activities?<br />They were also asked to say which of the following applied to them regarding receiving gifts from politicians at election time:<br />* Yes, I have, but it never affected the way I voted.<br />* Yes, I have, and to tell the truth, it affected the way I voted.<br />* Yes, I have, because none of them is any different and so I have voted for the one that pays me.<br />* I would vote for anyone who pays me; why not?<br />* I would take money from a politician, but it would not affect my vote.<br />* No, I have never done so.<br />* No, I have never done so, and never will.<br />The UWI anthropologist declined to reveal which 27 constituencies were surveyed for what he said were ethical reasons. However, of the island's 14 parishes, the study only excluded Hanover and St Elizabeth for reasons of access. It features opinions canvassed from persons in urban (town clusters) of Kingston, St Catherine (Portmore, Spanish Town) and St James (Montego Bay). Persons from rural town clusters in Westmoreland, St Ann, St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Manchester, Clarendon and Trelawny were also polled.<br />The research team, he said, found there was evidence of vote-buying in almost all of the 27 constituencies canvassed.<br />"The shocking finding is that only one of the 27 constituencies provided no evidence of vote-buying... So widespread is the practice that in some constituencies the team interviewed less than 10 persons conveniently, and a third of these persons had experienced vote-buying. Note that more than a third (88 of 240) of the sample has experienced direct face-to-face vote-buying," said Gayle.<br />The data also suggest that the poorer and more desperate the people of the constituency are, the cheaper their votes can be bought.<br />"Several persons in the inner cities received no more than $500, though the two modal receipts were $2,000 and $5,000. The poor were also very likely to be trapped with food. In some cases their package never amounted to more than $1,000. There were a few, however, who received as much as 50 pounds of rice, along with (tinned) mackerel," said the anthropologist.<br />"The poor were also likely to receive phone cards and even mattresses. The rural poor were very likely to be baited with livestock, seeds and fertiliser. In a few cases, both rural and urban near-poor were drawn by construction material. A few received vouchers of $20,000 and $40,000 which they could take to specific hardware stores. These were told to the researchers who called to verify that the data was accurate."<br />Again, Dr Gayle declined to divulge the name of these businesses for what he termed ethical reasons.<br />However, he noted that the data suggest a more deadly practice persists; the exchange of guns for votes, a feature of violent elections in the 1970s and 80s. Some of those surveyed said they had recently witnessed this.<br />"... three young men were seen demanding a gun from the MP and were witnessed collecting them at later dates. It is important to note that two of these guns were distributed only weeks ago, suggesting that politicians are still in the business of distributing guns to inner-city youth. In these latter cases, the respondent explained that they saw the youth begging for the gun and also saw when a car turned up with a package to give the youth. In one case, the youth pulled a 9mm Glock pistol only minutes after the delivery was made and publicly boasted that his MP was for real.<br />"Him a di real big man. Look pon what him send for me. Now mi can go look some food," the young man is reported as saying.<br />The vote-buying has also intensified as campaigning accelerated ahead of the pending poll over the past few months, Gayle said. The number of persons who have witnessed blatant vote-buying has also increased.<br />"If we add the vote-buying activities of the weeks of November 13-19 and the week of November 20-26 with the month of October and month of November (other than those two very active weeks in November that are isolated) we get a sum of 52 cases witnessed," Dr Gayle noted.<br />"This represents 59 per cent of all cases. This period (October and November 2011) represents a period of very aggressive political campaigning. The second most popular period was 2007, the last election. While the data cannot be compared, it tells us a story that vote-buying is current and critical in the campaigning strategy of our political parties. The continuous distribution of guns by a few politicians suggests that politicians will try to gain votes in Jamaica by any means necessary, if no serious sanctions are applied to reduce vote-buying," he said.<br />Dr Gayle's research also showed vote-buyers preyed on the poor. Hence, of the 88 persons who had witnessed vote-buying, 45 per cent were poor. But the anthropologist noted that the near-poor (lower middle classes) and the middle and upper class are not immune.<br />"As one explained, 'I have never seen it in my community, but at my workplace'. Fifty-three per cent (47 of the 88 who witnessed vote-purchasing) were males, suggesting that gender is not important here. The same proportion of persons was between the age of 18 and 34, that means age is also not important in determining if one witnesses the practice. This is because the practice is very widespread," Gayle concluded.<br />According to Gayle, "the practice of vote-buying in Jamaica is so extensive that it has become a part of culture and even entertainment at election times".<br />"In fact, many Jamaicans have even created a rationale for taking bribes at election times. They see it as an act of justice — their chance to get back some of the funds corrupt politicians took from the public purse," he said.<br />He pointed to what one rural respondent told researchers: "We know that they tief our money and pretend that is private sector give it to them. We join the game too. Anybody offer me money I take it, but they are not getting my vote. It is justice and in fact it is part of the entertainment in this community as elections approach".<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Vote-buying-intensifies--survey-finds_10308099#ixzz1faN8fTEUX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-6317190266879412942011-12-02T10:02:00.000-08:002011-12-09T11:50:54.922-08:00JLP's Political Leadership Competitive Vetting(Not)<strong>"Politicians are often thoroughly vetted. Candidates must undergo thorough evaluation by a team of advisers acting on behalf of the nominee. <br /><br />The Vetting Process: the team will examine such items as a prospective candidate's finances, personal conduct, intelligence and previous coverage in the media"</strong><br /><br />X-1:<br /><br /><em><strong>Competitive vetting</strong></em> usually assures in a confident imposing kinda paradigm that the best and most qualified wo/man gets the job. The reality that the JLP circumvented this established process leaves the best wo/man question up for grabs. The process was not engaged, and the alternative amounts to chior chairing and therefore is not an equivalent substitute for the competitive vetting process. So what you get is what you get, which may in the end be little more than special interest of power brokers.<br /><br />Using this analysis to evaluate Prime Minister Elect Andrew Holness, it would appear so far based on his utterings (re: the media and patwa) that he may not have been the most qualified to lead at this time. His uttering appear politically inexperienced and lacks tactical maturity. <br /><br />The Prime Minister's reasoning on "patois" certainly does not reflect scholastic quality and could be intrepreted as disrespectful by linguists.<br /><br /><br />Prime Minister Holness please take some 'political finishing school lessons' from some of the elder politicans. It just may save you from yourself, <strong>THE MEDIA is not your enemy AND SOCIAL MEDIA ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMAICAN REALITY IS NOT AN ALTERNATIVE.</strong> The Media do what they do to sell papers and to be relevant. Continuing on this path will erode your 'polling numbers unnaturally.<br /><br />Cant wait for the debate, I foresee some hiccups along the way.<br /><br />Media comment immaturity e.g. below.<br />____________________________<br /><br /><br />"Holness swipes at media<br />BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com <br /><br /> <br />Friday, December 02, 2011<br /><br /><br />PRIME Minister and leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Andrew Holness has taken Jamaica's media to task over reportage and comments which he claims were unfavourable and laced with agendas.<br /><br />Addressing party supporters at a meeting in Swaby's Hope, Manchester Wednesday night, Holness said that he would be relying less on traditional media such as newspapers, radio and television and will instead be using social media such as Facebook and Twitter to convey the party's message. <br /><br /><br /><br />"Come campaign time much of the information that you will get is not true, some of it will be twisted, some of it will be editorialised, some of it will be twisted for political reasons, but I have some messages to give to you which we can't afford to be twisted. Labourites I want you to understand that this is high-tech time. We not going to depend on one source to carry our message. Labourites as I speak, we are transmitting live on social media, so we communicate directly with the people so that the people can get the message unfiltered, untwisted -- the truth," he said.<br /><br />The prime minister in his broadside made reference to a television report which he felt was inaccurate, and told the gathering that he personally spoke to the entity's management about the story.<br /><br />"You going to hear a lot of things that nuh guh so in the media. You see I point out to one of them (in reference to concerns over the television report) a story designed to pour cold water on our campaign," he said.<br /><br />"We don't need duppy story to frighten the electorate, we don't need rumours to frighten the electorate. Every time they hear something they run to the press and the press tek it. We are a serious party, we have serious business to deal wid, we nuh have time fi Anancy story and foolishness, dem days of politics done," said the party leader to the South Manchester constituents who on election day will be deciding between the JLP's Collin Virgo and the PNP's Michael Peart.<br /><br />"It is about time that there comes in Jamaica, a leader who is able to speak to the mass of the people and tell them the truth, to jump over the media and go straight to the people because you can't depend on them to carry the message of truth to the people," said Holness.<br /><br />The party leader also took a swipe at some members of academia and insisted that the time had come for the media and academia to join with the people to explain the nature of the situation confronting Jamaica and the decisions that are needed as the country goes forward.<br /><br />Despite his claims, Holness emphasised that he doesn't have a problem with media, but wants to hear the truth and also wants the media to put aside "the agendas" and focus on what is in the interest of the people.<br /><br />The prime minister's comments come as the country's media practitioners participate in Journalism Week which is being observed under the theme 'Justice, Truth be ours Forever: Journalism in a Changing World'.<br /><br />At the recent launch, president of the Press Association of Jamaica Jenni Campbell highlighted the challenges faced by the local media and emphasised that journalists should continue to uphold the responsibilities of the profession"<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Holness-swipes-at-media_10296205#ixzz1fP39Xl7m<br /><br />*************<br /><br />The press, politics and politicians<br />BARBARA GLOUDON<br /><br /> <br />Friday, December 09, 2011<br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />IT IS A PITY that someone didn't alert our prime minister to a very necessary piece of knowledge for people in his position: "Avoid confrontation with the media. Your energy could be more usefully occupied on pressing matters of moment."<br /><br />The current kass-kass need not have developed this way. If the PM was convinced that he was not getting a fair deal, then it might have been more effective to have a face-to-face with media heads and let his concern be known. There would be a strong possibility that said media leadership would have listened respectfully then pointed out some basic truths as they see them. "It is not that we don't like you, Sir, but like you, we have to do what we have to do. Our journalists are not required to make you feel good. Where there are errors, we will investigate and correct them and we will try to arrive at a mutual understanding of fairness, for that is the most effective way to achieve our goals. Fair enough?"<br /><br />The PM might or might not have accepted it but at least it might have caused the head of government to think twice before he let himself get carried away by the adulation at two major party gatherings and succumb to the temptation of media-baiting. It is ever so easy to happen. People still talk about how Michael Manley, in 1978 was so incensed at The Gleaner's campaign against him and his government, that he led a crowd of protestors to North Street.<br /><br />Since his popular name was Joshua, it soon became legend that his intention was to march around the walls of the building until they fell, like in the biblical battle of Jericho, where the original Joshua, in demonstrating his displeasure, sent the city's fortifications tumbling down. The Gleaner's walls did not fall but Mr Manley had to bear the cost to his reputation, accused of being against press freedom, one more unfavourable label which his detractors were only too quick to add. Later, I heard him tell how, on reflection, he would not have done it the same way. It doesn't look good on your epitaph that you didn't support freedom of the press.<br /><br />OUR PRESENT PM could be complimented at least for not leading an army of vuvuzuela-blowing supporters to flatten the ramparts of Television Jamaica and RJR, major targets of the current disaffection... but the damage was done. Not everyone, with all due respect, can handle a difference of views without translating it into the tribal violence which afflicts us, especially in times like these. While there is no report of the PM advocating violence of any kind, some supporters "leggo" a few distinctive words. Some media personnel are said to have felt threatened.<br /><br />Whoever decided to tag media workers as guilty of not reporting the facts (the good facts, of course) and guilty also of not revealing the truth — ("our truth"), could have contributed to bodily harm or worse, being inflicted on them. Thankfully it did not go that far. Words did not turn into sticks and stones and anything more lethal, but in the words of one of my numerous ancestral sources, "Yuh nuh fi sorry... yuh nuh fi dweet."<br /><br />The PM might have added a little kerosene to the fire, according to reports from the Portland meeting, but once again it was no more than talk, and mercifully so, that he came to his senses and softened his stance later, in a speech delivered to the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica.<br /><br />THE PRESS ASSOCIATION had the guts to speak out strongly, earlier in the week, against what is reported as having taken place at the Manchester and Portland meetings. The PAJ served warning that if the threat of antagonism against media workers continued, the organisation would have no recourse but to bring it to the attention of international organisations which support press freedom. It was not so much a threat as a call to sanity.<br /><br />When the PM went to speak to the PSOJ Christmas luncheon, he moved to give the assurance that the government was committed to press freedom and the safety of journalists. He proclaimed that his government believes in transparency and balance in reporting and he recommended a pact between government and media. In his view, "transparency and truth could make the current election campaign the best ever since adult suffrage".<br /><br />This message must be passed also to followers who might have misunderstood the original transmission and got mixed signals about the media. Not everyone is convinced that the storm is over, however. There are still political fanatics who insist that some journalists are against their side and as such, must not be tolerated. The word "bias" has been appropriated as the ultimate accusation, deserving abuse.<br /><br />The names and e-mail addresses of people in management at certain media houses are said to have been made public. This is not only irresponsible, but downright dangerous. Fanatics everywhere have been known to develop "avenger complex" and take on the role to right wrongs on behalf of those they admire. That we can do without.<br /><br />As one of the corps of on-air commentators, I can attest to the insecurity of some listeners who, when they feel that there is bias against their point of view or their favourite political idol, can demonstrate serious disrespect and hostility. I'm always reminded at such times that real-real journalism does not reside in sweetie-sweetie media-appreciation events, but in real life where people do not always trust each other.<br /><br />Let's face it, there's nothing politicians love more than adulation. So long as you are making them look good, it is all right. Look at the unprecedented flood of affirmation which the same media, which is distrusted today, showered on the PM when he began his tenure. But that was yesterday.... The worst thing you can do is present the truth as you see it, but then truth comes in different versions. "What is truth?" it has been asked. "The truth shall set you free," we're told, but who can explain "whose truth"?<br /><br />CONGRATULATIONS to Jenni Campbell and the rest of the Press Association of Jamaica for the guts to speak out when it was time to do so. Not everybody will agree but if journalists cannot speak on their own behalf, then who can? The profession, on the other hand, must never fail to live up to the highest standards of professionalism. They don't have to like us but they should respect us.<br /><br />IT IS TIMES like these we recall the high standards set by the late Dr Aggrey Brown who was one of the tireless upholders of professionalism in journalism. The farewell to him at the University Chapel last week Tuesday morning was replete with respect and lessons for learning.<br /><br /><br />gloudonb@yahoo.com<br /><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/The-press--politics-and-politicians_10354069#ixzz1g4F7KASbX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-30440605325224062952011-11-22T10:11:00.001-08:002011-11-23T14:18:59.314-08:00Attitudinal Polling vs Opinion Polling<em><strong>Attitudinal Polling Method</strong></em><br />http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001 <br /><br />"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts. <br /><br />The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute" <br /><br /><br /><br />___________________________________ <br /><br />2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research <br /><br />___________________________________ <br /><br /><br />2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version <br /><br /><br />Feb 6th, 2011 <br /><br />Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project <br /><br />Author X-1 <br /><br />I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved. <br /><br />This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache. <br /><br /><br />Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare) <br /><br /><br />Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature. <br /><br />The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated. <br /><br /><br />The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure <br /><br />The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings. <br /><br />Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology. <br /><br /><br />“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007) <br /><br /><br />Pureness Parameters <br /><br /><br />JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality. <br /><br />PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality. <br /><br />Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes. <br /><br />Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm <br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007 <br /><br />Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior. <br /><br />http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001 <br /><br />Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model. <br /><br />Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’. <br /><br />Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk. <br /><br /><br />Operational Variables: <br /><br />These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings. <br /><br /><br />Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class. <br /><br />Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals. <br /><br />Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy). <br /><br />Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable. <br /><br /><br />Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted. <br /><br />Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change. <br /><br /><br />Scaling/Measurement <br /><br />How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4. <br /><br /><br /><br />Re-inforcement of Theory <br /><br />This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’. <br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Data Inferential Findings <br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1. <br /><br />(Likert Scaling) <br /><br />http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php <br /><br />1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008 <br />Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006. <br />According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html <br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008 <br />Samuda, Shaw <br />On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings. <br />Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html <br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze <br />Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009 <br /><br />Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter <br /><br />Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers. <br />Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing. <br />The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday. <br />"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said. <br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />4. Bartlett defends office revamp <br />Published: Monday | October 12, 2009 <br />Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer <br />Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient. <br />Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br />5. We want and deserve more <br />Published: Monday | December 7, 2009 <br />Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it. <br />The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html <br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />6. Bruce Pays Big <br />Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010 <br />16 Comments <br /><br />After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled. <br />A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request. <br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />7. Erasing The Corruption Stain <br />Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010 <br />7 Commentsampbell <br />Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter <br />From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office. <br />Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />8. Blaine forms new political party <br />New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston <br />BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com <br />Thursday, August 05, 2010 <br /><br />THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc). <br />"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston. <br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />9. Cash Plus Drama <br />Published: Friday | January 14, 2011 <br />18 Comments <br /><br /><br />Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers <br />Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd. <br />"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy. <br />Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal. <br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html <br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br />10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg <br />Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011 <br />9 Comments <br />Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File <br />Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited. <br />In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations. <br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article: <br /><br /><br />Jlp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Pnp <br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br />Nnc <br /><br />-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design <br />Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm <br /><br />Attitudinal Survey Data <br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Total Attitudinal Scale Scores: <br /><br />Jlp = +1 <br /><br />Pnp = +5 <br /><br />Nnc = -1 <br /><br /><br />Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67 <br />Chart 1 <br /><br />-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5 <br />.....................0.............. (1.67) <br />In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ” <br /><br /><br />%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% <br /><br /><br /><br />(Survey using Proxy data) <br /><br /><br />Attitudinal Survey Data continuation… <br /><br /><br />11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll <br />Tuesday, May 03, 2011 <br /><br />Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June. <br />A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips. <br />The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter. <br />The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm. <br />In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people. <br />Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent. <br />The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year. <br />In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent. <br />At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign. <br />The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year. <br />In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent. <br />In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April. <br />Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges. <br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0 <br /><br /><br /><br />11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility <br />(57-26)=-31% <br /><br /><br />.................* <br />-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10 <br /><br /><br /><br />11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation <br />(49-38)=-11% <br /><br />.....................................* <br />-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10 <br /><br /><br /><br />Chart # 2Scale 10=100 <br /><br />..................... (-21%) [-31-11] <br />-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10 <br /><br /><br /><br />• <strong>Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister. <br />• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern. <br />• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend. <br />• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern. <br />• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions. <br />• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter. </strong><br /><br />_______________________________<br /><br /><br /><em><strong>Opinion Polling Method</strong></em><br /><br />"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls<br />BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com <br /><br /><br />Thursday, November 10, 2011<br /><br /><br />ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.<br /><br />The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP. <br /><br /><br /><br />The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.<br /><br />Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.<br /><br />The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.<br /><br />The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.<br /><br />The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.<br /><br />In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.<br /><br />In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.<br /><br />When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.<br /><br />The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.<br /><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv<br /><br />Comments:<br /><br />"Rick Edwards<br />11/10/2011<br />This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home" <br /><br />***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***<br /><br /><br />British Deportee<br />11/10/2011<br />I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace! <br /><br />***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN<br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa<br /><br />__________________________________<br /><br />STILL OFF COURSE<br />Published: Tuesday | November 22, 2011 12 Comments <br /><br />Job hunters sit a test at a government agency. FILE<br /><br />Jamaicans stay wary as jobs remain most troubling concern<br /><br />Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter<br />Just under half of the people who voted for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the 2007 general election believe the Government has steered the ship of state in the wrong direction.<br /><br />The vast majority of people have formed this opinion based on the rising unemployment level.<br /><br />In the meantime, a whopping 80 per cent of the people who voted for the People's National Party (PNP) agree that the country needs to change economic course fast, with the shortage of jobs also being cited as their main reason for concern.<br /><br />But over the past month, since the swearing in of Andrew Holness as prime minister, there has been a slight decrease in the number of people who believe the country is headed downhill fast.<br /><br />The latest Gleaner-commiss-ioned Bill Johnson poll has found that little more than six in every 10 Jamaicans (63 per cent) think the country is moving in the wrong direction.<br /><br />That is a slight improvement from the 66 per cent recorded in October but within the poll's statistical margin of error, which is plus or minus four per cent.<br /><br />Meanwhile, more than half of the country believes the shortage of jobs is the most pressing problem facing Jamaica at this time.<br /><br />That represents a jump of 17 per cent in the number of people who see unemployment as the major problem facing the country when the poll was conducted early October.<br /><br />The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll - conducted among 1,008 respondents from November 5 to 6 and November 12 in 84 communities across the island - found that only 18 per cent of Jamaicans believe the country is moving in the right direction, while 19 per cent said they did not know.<br /><br />Crime second-major concern<br /><br />Concerns about crime have long dominated local opinion polls when people were asked about the most pressing problem facing the country. Those concerns reached a high of 74 per cent of Jamaicans who saw this as the country's major problem in June 2008.<br /><br />But that started to change in June of this year when the worldwide recession and the subsequent cuts in thousands of jobs moved unemployment to the top of the list.<br /><br />Since then, with major crimes on the decline, unemployment has topped the last three Gleaner-commissioned Johnson polls to the point where, this time around, twice as many people see the shortage of jobs as the most pressing problem facing the country in comparison to those who place crime in that position.<br /><br />"We still have some way to go, but I am feeling particularly vindicated and satisfied that the populace is recognising and acknowledging the efforts of the Ministry of National Security in taking back Jamaica from the clutches of the criminals," said Senator Dwight Nelson, minister of national security, in reaction to news that unemployment has overtaken crime as the country's number-one concern.<br /><br />"The Government had inherited a runaway crime rate when it assumed office just over four years ago. This had resulted in polls over the years highlighting crime as the most serious concern among Jamaicans; but this is no longer so according to the findings of recent polls … ," added Nelson.<br /><br />Even when the numbers are moved from the national level to the individual communities, eight in every 10 Jamaicans see unemployment as the major problem in their area.<br /><br />The Government and the Opposition have been at loggerheads for some time over the number of Jamaicans to have lost their jobs since the global recession started.<br /><br />The Opposition claims that, by its figures, just under 100,000 people have lost their jobs, while the Government says that figure is highly inflated.<br /><br />The Statistical Institute of Jamaica, which is the official agency to publish unemployment numbers, has delayed the publication because it said it was working on the national censusX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-54042252810785288102011-11-05T10:37:00.000-07:002011-11-20T10:40:01.253-08:002011/12 Jamaica Election Polling Gameology<strong>Election Polling Gameology</strong><br /><br />The ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid pollsters and respective news media will produce surveys and customer friendly stories consistent with ‘gameological’ theory such as: <br /><br />“The Water Melon or Horse pon Track Polling Effect”<br /><br />Scholars and the polling organization have denied the allegations, but some people label polls as tools of <em><strong>political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon or horse pon track effect </strong></em>" (this refers to the expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side, or punters/betting public gravitate to horse hyperbility)". <br /><br />This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007 and will be employed in the 2011/12 general election.<br /><br />In short order (<em><strong>post today's date of November 5, 2011</strong></em>), one will see Pollsters and media houses(not scientific researchers) like Don Anderson, Mark 'Wiggy' Wignal? etal with Polling and 'respective political pursuation' Headlines which may include political user friendly alliance sentiments such as: <br /><br /><blockquote>"JLP erases PNP lead in the polls", </blockquote>or <br /><br /><blockquote>“Holness the most preferred leader” </blockquote>or <br /><br /><blockquote>"Holness Leads Portia in Election Nod"</blockquote> or<br /><br /><blockquote>“JLP takes lead over PNP by 4 points in the Election Polls”. </blockquote> or<br /><br /><blockquote>"JLP and PNP in statistical deadheat"</blockquote><br /><br />Etc, etc…..<br /><br />The strategy works like this: <br /><br /><strong>Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 2% Third and others Parties equals 77%. Dat leaves 23% of which 12% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 12 percentage points.</strong> <br /><br /><br />So the game is played like this:<br />_____________________________<br /><br /><br />One horse dey pon de track sou im consider that im hav home field advantage, but coz im pop dun inna previous races, opposition horse jump out to a early lead before the race begins. <br /><br />Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shut an company. <br /><br />So because this ya race so crucial teamie use all kinda different method/bandooloo fe win de race. For example, some a juck wit battery(expediency/resignation etc), some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo-Grand Master. However, because the lead so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Don Anderson High power Opinion Survey PR team, <strong>not Scientific Reseachers</strong>). <br /><br />Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite <strong>Horse #1 (PNP)</strong>, but <strong>Horse # 2 (JLP)</strong> figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Don Anderson Polls come in. <br /><br />(Opinion survey) will try and convince 'proportional' 12% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘gameology theory of momentum and game change bounce'. <br />______________________________<br /><br /><br />Admittedly, a very good mass behavioral progamming strategy; wherein, the method of <strong>"he who controls the circumference of knowledge controls the scope of behavior" is employed as an electioneering tactic. </strong><br /><br />This stretegy has been successful in various places and if executed competently it could very well work here against the natural trends.<br /><br />However, scientific research indicate that if the opposition PNP brings a remotely competent and offsetting electioneering strategy using the general population natural Attitudinal variable, then this will ensure their return to power.<br /><br /><br />Start your engines or horse...the race is on....<br /><br /><br />__________________________________<br /><br />X-1<br /><br />Ah bwoy, what did I just say.....<br /><br />__________________________________<br /><br /><strong>"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls<br />BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com <br /><br /> <br />Thursday, November 10, 2011<br /><br /><br />ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.<br /><br />The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP. <br /><br /><br /><br />The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.<br /><br />Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.<br /><br />The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.<br /><br />The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.<br /><br />The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.<br /><br />In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.<br /><br />In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.<br /><br />When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.<br /><br />The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.<br /><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv</strong><br /><br />Comments:<br /><br /><strong>"Rick Edwards<br />11/10/2011<br />This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home" </strong> <br /><br />***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***<br /><br /><br />British Deportee<br />11/10/2011<br />I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace! <br /><br /><strong>***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .</strong><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN<br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa<br />_____________<br /><br /><strong>Cost of living pressure to ease<br /><br />Thursday, November 10, 2011</strong><br />THE cost of living pressure is likely to continue to ease during the December 2011 quarter, with inflation projected to be in the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent, while economic growth could accelerate during the period.<br /><br />Presenting the latest Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, for the period ending September 30, Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter, said that this forecast is “predicated on low imported inflation, a continued decline in inflation expectations and stable domestic capacity conditions.”<br /><br />He stated that, given this forecast, the bank expects that for the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2012, inflation will be within the target range of 6.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent.<br /><br />“The outlook for inflation for both the December quarter and the fiscal year has incorporated a projection for the seasonal increase in demand pressure in the foreign exchange market. This should mainly reflect the usual lower net private capital inflows,” he explained.<br /><br />He further noted that the demand for foreign exchange to facilitate current account transactions should abate given the expected moderation in commodity price increases and the seasonal increase in tourism flows.<br /><br />“In this context, the bank will intervene, as necessary, to smooth supplies in the market and ensure orderly movement in the exchange rate. However, gross reserves will remain comfortably above the international benchmark of 12 weeks coverage of projected imports of goods and services,” he said.<br /><br />With respect to the country’s economic performance during the review quarter, Wynter stated that the bank’s estimates indicate that there was continued real economic growth in the review quarter, “albeit at a slower pace than the two previous quarters”.<br /><br />He said that the economy is estimated to have grown 0.0 per cent to 1.0 per cent, relative to average quarterly growth of 1.8 per cent for the first half of the calendar year.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Cost-of-living-pressure-to-ease#ixzz1dJwDv73U<br /><br />_________________<br /><br /><br /><strong>The jobs are coming, says Tufton<br />BY LUKE DOUGLAS Observer senior reporter douglasl@jamaicaobserver.com </strong> <br />Thursday, November 10, 2011<br /><br /><br />INTERNATIONAL finance, information and communications technology (ICT), tourism and limestone mining are four of the areas in which jobs will be created in Jamaica over the next few years, according to Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce Dr Christopher Tufton.<br /><br />Dr Tufton, speaking at a forum staged by the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) young professional group Generation 2000 at the University of the West Indies on Tuesday evening, repeated an earlier announcement that 11,000 jobs in the ICT sector could be doubled over the next three years. <br /><br /><br />TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with<br /> TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with 1/1 <br /><br /><br />He said that he is expected to announce in a few weeks that a company with a 'big, big name' will be investing in Jamaica which will create 'quite a few thousand jobs', but did not say if it is involved in ICT sector.<br /><br />The minister, meanwhile, defended the Government's record of managing the economy throughout the global recession and creating the environment for businesses to succeed.<br /><br />"Tourism is going to continue to be a major player," Dr Tufton said, noting that the sector needed an additional 20,000 rooms over the next few years to bring the number of rooms in the sector to 50,000.<br /><br />"Limestone is going to replace bauxite as the next big mining operation in Jamaica because we have so much of it," the minister said, noting that Jamaica has 98 per cent pure limestone which is in high demand.<br /><br />On international finance, Dr Tufton said a board was recently appointed to manage the sector and that laws were being modernised to position Jamaica to compete with countries such as the Cayman Islands and The Bahamas in providing services for large companies at more competitive rates.<br /><br />The minister also lauded the performance of the Government led by former Prime Minister Bruce Golding in bringing down inflation and interest rates, stabilising the Jamaican dollar, and managing the economy throughout the global recession.<br /><br />He urged the students to reject the Opposition People's National Party in the next election, saying they had no plans for job creation.<br /><br />"My plans are not a puss in a bag; we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with," he said.<br /><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/The-jobs-are-coming--says-Tufton_10132998#ixzz1dJwYS3GB<br /><br /><br />-----------------<br /><br />Heat is on - <strong>Even-steven </strong>as to which party would do the better job of running the country<br />Published: Saturday | November 19, 2011 0 Comments <br /><br /><br /><br />Nomination day 2007. - File1 2 ><br /><br />Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter<br /><br /><strong>JAMAICANS RATE the two major political parties evenly when it comes to which one would do the better job of governing the country at this time. </strong>With the youthful Andrew Holness leading a team which includes the veteran Pearnel Charles, Mike Henry and Dr Ken Baugh, and the veteran Portia Simpson Miller leading a team which includes the young Lisa Hanna, Peter Bunting and Mark Golding, it appears the electorate is not sold on either of the two parties. <br /><br />Approaching the general election finish line, the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) and the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are in a dead heat as they try to convince voters that either would be better at solving the myriad problems facing the country. <br /><br />The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson national public opinion poll has found that the JLP and the PNP captured 39 per cent each when Jamaicans were asked which of the two major political parties would do a better job of running the country. Twenty-two per cent of the respondents were undecided. <br /><br />The poll was conducted between November 5 and 6 and November 12 with 1,008 respondents in 84 communities islandwide with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. <br /><br />Good news for JLP <br /><br />While the parties are deadlocked in the latest poll, the numbers reflect better news for the JLP which is making up ground while the PNP is slipping. At 39 per cent, the JLP is recording its highest endorsement since just before the 2007 general election when 41 per cent of Jamaicans said it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country. Since then, in four polls, the governing party has consistently trailed the PNP as the party most Jamaicans think would be the better manager of the affairs of the State. <br /><br />When Jamaicans were asked this question by the Johnson researchers in June 2011, 32 per cent of Jamaicans said the JLP would do the better job while 43 per cent said the PNP. <br /><br />This means that the JLP has gained seven percentage points in the past five months while the PNP has lost four percentage points. <br /><br />The improved performance of the JLP comes despite the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, high unemployment and rising poverty. But the inflation rate has been moderate, the foreign-exchange market stable and interest rates at their lowest levels for some time. <br /><br />But whichever party forms the next government, it must deal with the IMF muddle, address the debt problem which stood at more than J$1.6 trillion at the end of August, reform the public sector and reduce its drag on the country's purse, overhaul the tax system and address the civil-service pension issue. <br /><br />Cutting spending and increasing the country's earnings will be non-negotiable for the next government and either party will have the unenviable task of imposing unpopular measures or risk watching the economy collapse<br /><br />-------<br /><br />Holness for captain<br />Published: Friday | November 18, 2011 0 Comments <br /><br />Andrew Holness<br /><br />by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter<br />More Jamaicans believe Andrew would do better than Simpson Miller in heading Government<br /><br /><strong>Prime Minister Andrew Holness has an eight percentage point lead over Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans believe would do a better job of leading the Government at this time.</strong>But with 22 per cent of Jamaicans undecided about which of the two leaders would do the better job, a mouth-watering contest is in the making as the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People's National Party (PNP) attempt to sell the virtues of their respective leaders in the run-up to the next general election.<br /><br />The expected national leadership debate, if it can be agreed, could also be pivotal in helping the undecided to come to a position.<br />-------------<br /><br />X-1:<br /><br />When mi lok inna mi Crystal Blog, I see the blogs results apriopri. Bwoys this polling thing is very predictable.....<br /><br />----------<br /><br />Too close to call - JLP continues to close gap on PNP but Holness bounce begins to taper off<br />Published: Sunday | November 20, 2011 0 Comments <br /><br /><br /><br />Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter<br /><br />The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is continuing to close the gap on the People's National Party (PNP) in the race to form the next government, but Labourites celebrating at the National Arena today should keep the champagne on ice as the electoral victory expected with the change in leadership of the party might prove elusive. <br /><br />While the PNP's lead over the JLP has narrowed to four percentage points from 10 six months ago, the Labourites' forward march, which started in October with news that Andrew Holness would be replacing Bruce Golding, has stalled, and instead, the party has lost some ground over the past month. <br /><br />But the PNP has also lost ground, leaving the two parties in a statistical dead heat as to which will get the nod to form the Government after Jamaicans next vote in a general election. <br /><br />The JLP enjoyed a huge boost in popularity just over one month ago when young Holness was selected to replace the politically toxic Golding, who announced that he was stepping down as prime minister and party leader. <br /><br />The coronation of 'Prince Andrew' is scheduled for today when he will be elected unopposed to replace Golding as the JLP leader, and with the bounce in the polls from his selection, Labourites have been talking about winning as many as 43 of the 63 seats which will be up for grabs in the next general election. <br /><br />The confidence of the JLP supporters was boosted last month when a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll found that the party had narrowed the gap on the PNP from 18 percentage points in April 2010 to six percentage points in October. But when the Johnson team returned to the streets on November 5, 6 and 12, the Holness bounce had flattened out, even though the party continues to close the gap on the PNP. <br /><br />latest findings <br /><br />The latest poll has found that if the general election is called now, despite the candidates in place, 29 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP while 32 per cent would vote for the PNP. With the poll having a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, either Holness or Portia Simpson Miller could be asked to form the Government when the dust settles after the election. <br /><br />To ensure victory, both parties will have to go after the 13 per cent of respondents who say they are undecided, or the 23 per cent, who, despite the anticipated election, still say they will not vote. <br /><br />With Holness expected to announce the election date anytime now - possibly today - the latest Johnson poll, though still good news for the JLP, could put the brakes on the exuberance of the Labourites, who had all but started victory celebrations since the October Johnson poll. <br /><br />In October, the poll found that with the Holness bounce, 31 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP if elections were called then, while 37 per cent said they would vote for the PNP. While still behind the PNP, the JLP had gained six percentage points since June while the PNP had gained two, and the gap had closed from 10 percentage points to six. <br /><br />This time around, in just over one month, the JLP has lost two percentage points (31 per cent to 29 per cent), while the PNP has lost five percentage points (37 per cent to 32 per cent). <br /><br />The ranks of the undecided moved up from 10 per cent to 13 per cent in the past month, while Jamaicans who say they will not vote remained almost unchanged, at 22 per cent. <br /><br />arthur.hall@gleanerjm.comX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-29487262865351775162011-10-30T13:37:00.000-07:002011-11-02T15:50:33.467-07:00(2012 Jamaican Election) Socio-Political 'Natural' Laws<strong><br />****************</strong><br /><br />X-1:<br />Newly elected Jamaican <strong>Prime Minister Andrew Holness </strong>is firmly in control of the Jamaican government and is psychologically tempted daily to chart his own mandate consistent with human nature. <strong>The operative question is: When will he call the next election?</strong> Before one dives head first into the related timeliness of election debates, one should consider the following socio-psycho-political observable laws as documented by some very smart people, as follows: <br /><br /><strong>*******************</strong><br /><br /><strong>Parkinson's law</strong><br /><br />Parkinson's law is the adage first articulated by Cyril Northcote Parkinson as the first sentence of a humorous essay published in The Economist in 1955:[1][2]<br /><br />"<strong>Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion</strong>"<br /><br />It was later reprinted together with other essays in the book Parkinson's Law: The Pursuit of Progress (London, John Murray, 1958). He derived the dictum from his extensive experience in the British Civil Service.<br /><br />The current form of the law is not that which Parkinson refers to by that name in the article. Rather, he assigns to the term a mathematical equation describing the rate at which bureaucracies expand over time. Much of the essay is dedicated to a summary of purportedly scientific observations supporting his law, such as the increase in the number of employees at the Colonial Office while Great Britain's overseas empire declined (indeed, he shows that the Colonial Office had its greatest number of staff at the point when it was folded into the Foreign Office because of a lack of colonies to administer). He explains this growth by two forces: (1) "An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals" and (2) "Officials make work for each other." He notes in particular that the total of those employed inside a bureaucracy rose by 5-7% per year "irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done."<br /><br />In 1986, Alessandro Natta complained about the swelling bureaucracy in Italy. Mikhail Gorbachev responded that "<strong>Parkinson's Law works everywhere</strong>."[<br /><br />In time, however, the first-referenced meaning of the phrase has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries: for example, the derivative relating to computers:<br /><br />Data expands to fill the space available for storage. <br />or<br />Storage requirements will increase to meet storage capacity. <br />or<br />Nature abhors a vacuum. <br />Some define Parkinson's Law in regard to time as:<br />The amount of time which one has to perform a task is the amount of time it will take to complete the task.<br /><br />__________________________________________________________<br /><strong>***********</strong><strong><br />X-1:<br />If one subscribes to this logic, then you may conclude that the Jamaican Election will not occur within the next 6 months and may even occur just a few months prior to the alotted deadline date. However, if you do not subscribe to this logic or view it as N/A, then the conclusion maybe that the election will occur within weeks or months. If that occurs then by association other 'natural' laws may be magnified.</strong><br /><strong>**************</strong><br />___________________________<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Hofstadter's law</strong><br /><br />Hofstadter's Law is a self-referencing time-related adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter and named after himself.<br /><br />Hofstadter's Law: <br /><br /><strong>It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.</strong><br /><br />Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid[1]<br />Hofstadter's Law was a part of Douglas Hofstadter's 1979 book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. The law is a statement regarding the difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of any substantial complexity.[2] It is often cited amongst programmers, especially in discussions of techniques to improve productivity, such as The Mythical Man-Month or extreme programming.[3] The recursive nature of the law is a reflection of the universal experience of difficulty experienced in estimating complex tasks despite all best efforts, including knowing that the task is complex.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Optimism bias</strong><br /><br />Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with the illusion of control and illusory superiority, it is one of the positive illusions to which people are generally susceptible. Excessive optimism can result in cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and delays when plans are implemented or expensive projects are built.<br /><br /><br />_____________________________________________<br />X-1<br /><br /><strong>If the election occurs within weeks or months, Hofstadter's Law and Optimism Bias will become magnified variables. How will these variables relate to the eventual election results. This question can only be addressed accurately in an election post mortem.<br /><br />It has been said and documented that the most consistent predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Bruce Golding had a history of quitting and so he was true to form in resigning. <br /><br />The JLP has a history of calling early elections and they have motivation for doing so again, as in 'game changer' and trying to capitalize on the New Leadership bounce before the next 'negative story' breaks. <br /><br />One may conclude that calling an early election, maybe like trying to beat "the galawasp to the water". This is politics at its best, as both sides jockey for the moment(s) of advantage. All these various moves and counter moves are emotionally based, and attitudes are more stationary; hence, the methodology employed in X-1's research as summarized below. </strong><br />_____________________________________________<br /><br />X-1<br /><br /><strong>"It appears that X-1 is spot-on in reference to his research data's inferential analysis in regards to the JLP''s Bruce Golding negative trending pattern. Will this move or pending move to be materialized be a "Game Changer"? Yes and No, Why?<br /><br />There exists a thousand words between the verbal and written. Scientifically, this move (Golding Resignation) will not have a general election material effect, but rather a "spot in the pond effect" A bounce will occur, but the trending negative pattern will hold true. "Game Changer" will be "Regime Changer" in the end, as the Central Tendency illustrated in Chart 1 and 2 were not predicated solely on any politicians individual value, but rather attitudinal value of the masses seen through the lens of scientific methodology.</strong><br /><br /><br />“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design <br />Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm <br /><br /><strong>Attitudinal Survey Data <br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Total Attitudinal Scale Scores: <br /><br />Jlp = +1 <br /><br />Pnp = +5 <br /><br />Nnc = -1 <br /><br /><br />Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67 <br />Chart 1 <br /><br />-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5 <br />..................0....... (1.67) <br />In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”.......</strong><br /><br />******************<br /><br />"11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility <br />(57-26)=-31% <br /><br /><br />.............* <br />-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10 <br /><br /><br /><br />11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation <br />(49-38)=-11% <br /><br />............................* <br />-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10 <br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Chart # 2</strong><br />Scale 10=100 <br /><br />................. (-21%) [-31-11] <br />-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10 <br /><br /><br /><br />• <strong>Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister. <br />• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern. <br />• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend. <br />• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern. <br />• <em>Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions. </em><br />• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter."</strong><br />__________________________X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-12611442424373095642011-09-27T16:10:00.000-07:002011-10-10T16:11:11.718-07:00PM Golding ResignsGolding's resignation announcement goes viral<br />Published: Tuesday | September 27, 2011 12 Comments <br /><br />News of Bruce Golding's pending resignation as Jamaica Labour Party leader and prime minister of Jamaica has resonated across the world like wildfire.<br /><br />Media networks in every part of the world have been broadcasting the news ever since it broke Sunday morning.<br /><br />A search of the World Wide Web showed international media sites like BBC, The Washington Post, The Voice of America, Bloomberg, Stabroek News, The Guardian, The New York Times, Forbes, Huffington Post, Caribbean Media Corporation, Word Press, Bahamas Press, The Voice, Fox News, Al Jazeera, Globe and Mail, Taiwan News, Virgin Islands News, MSNBC, ABC, Miami Herald, Jerusalem Post, CBS, among others, highlighting the surprising announcement.<br /><br />Many have linked the move to the Christopher 'Dudus' Coke extradition saga.<br /><br />"Veteran leader damaged Labour Party's standing by opposing extradition of drug lord Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to the US," The Guardian states.<br /><br />The Washington Post reports, "Jamaica's governing party announced Sunday that Prime Minister Bruce Golding will step down as leader in the coming weeks, possibly averting a rebellion from ruling party members that could have led to his ouster."<br /><br />'Jamaica's beleaguered leader to step down' headlines The New York Times.<br /><br />"Bruce Golding to step down amid criticism of his role in extradition to the US of drug lord Christopher 'Dudus' Coke," reads Al Jazeera.<br /><br />________________<br /><br /><br /><strong>It appears that X-1 is spot-on in reference to his research data's inferential analysis in regards to the JLP''s Bruce Golding negative trending pattern. Will this move or pending move to be materialized be a "Game Changer"? Yes and No, Why?<br /><br />There exists a thousand words between the verbal and written. Scientifically, this move (Golding Resignation) will not have a general election material effect, but rather a "spot in the pond effect" A bounce will occur, but the trending negative pattern will hold true. "Game Changer" will be "Regime Changer" in the end, as the Central Tendency illustrated in Chart 1 and 2 were not predicated solely on any politicians individual value, but rather attitudinal value of the masses seen through the lens of scientific methodology.</strong><br /><br />*******************<br /><br />“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design <br />Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm <br /><br /><strong>Attitudinal Survey Data <br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Total Attitudinal Scale Scores: <br /><br />Jlp = +1 <br /><br />Pnp = +5 <br /><br />Nnc = -1 <br /><br /><br />Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67 <br />Chart 1 <br /><br />-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5 <br />..................0....... (1.67) <br />In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”.......</strong><br /><br />******************<br /><br />11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility <br />(57-26)=-31% <br /><br /><br />.............* <br />-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10 <br /><br /><br /><br />11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation <br />(49-38)=-11% <br /><br />............................* <br />-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10 <br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Chart # 2</strong><br />Scale 10=100 <br /><br />................. (-21%) [-31-11] <br />-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10 <br /><br /><br /><br />• <strong>Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister. <br />• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern. <br />• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend. <br />• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern. <br />• <em>Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions. </em><br />• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.</strong><br /><br />--------------<br /><br /><br />The challenges facing 'Prince Andrew'<br />Claude Robinson<br /><br /> <br />Sunday, October 09, 2011<br /><br />http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/The-challenges-facing--Prince-Andrew-_9861496<br /><br /><br />Pollsters Don Anderson for CVM-TV and Bill Johnson for the Gleaner surveyed the political preferences and voting intentions of the electorate between September 30 and October 1 just after Mr Golding announced he would resign as JLP leader and prime minister.<br /><br /><br /><strong>The Anderson-CVM poll found that 39 per cent would vote PNP under Mrs Simpson Miller and 35 per cent would vote for the JLP under Mr Holness.</strong><br /><br /><br />This is a huge turnaround from the Anderson July 2011 poll which saw the PNP president with a virtually unassailable 23-point lead over Mr Golding, polling 38 per cent support compared to 15 per cent for the prime minister, mortally wounded by his mishandling of the US request for the extradition of Christopher 'Dudus' Coke, the reputed leader of the deadly Shower Posse.<br /><br />The Johnson-Gleaner poll found that 44 per cent of Jamaicans would select the PNP president as prime minister while 40 per cent would choose the JLP leader-designate.<br /><br />The previous Gleaner-commissioned poll in May and June of this year reported that 42 per cent of Jamaicans said Mrs Simpson Miller would do a better job as prime minister while 31 per cent of the respondents favoured Mr Golding; hence Mr Holness has cut an 11 per cent lead to just four.<br /><br />Mrs Simpson Miller and the PNP can be expected to learn from the strong bump that Mr Holness has given the JLP and we await their reaction.<br /><br />The data indicate that the decision of deputy leaders Audley Shaw and Dr Christopher Tufton, deputy chairman Bobby Montague and former chairman Dr Ken Baugh to scuttle their prime ministerial ambitions and coalesce around Mr Holness was in keeping with popular sentiment and spares the party a potentially nasty and divisive fight on the floor of annual conference, given the JLP's history of splitting into 'gangs' over leadership disagreements.<br /><br />But while the consensus around Mr Holness was a necessary condition for party unity, the jury is still out as to whether it will be sufficient to secure a second term for the JLP.<br /><br />For starters, the Johnson poll has found that almost seven in every 10 Jamaicans (66 per cent) believe the Golding administration was headed in the wrong direction with the economy.<br /><br />As the Gleaner reported, this is almost unchanged from the 68 per cent who said the country was on the wrong path when Johnson posed the same question in June; but it is much better than the record 82 per cent disapproval captured in April 2010 at the height of the 'Dudus' controversy.<br /><br />So the question that voters will have to decide is whether the JLP under Mr Holness's leadership will be sufficiently different from Mr Golding's to get the country back on track, or whether to give back the reins of power to Mrs Simpson Miller and the PNP.<br /><br />The challenges are enormous: On the economic side, the biggest one is uncertainty surrounding the International Monetary Fund agreement.<br /><br />For nearly a year the country has no clear idea about the status of the performance targets and the implications for the Government's ability to get access to funds under the agreement. Government spokesmen only say that the two sides are talking and that the situation is delicate.<br /><br />Further, the JLP administration has failed to create jobs to compensate for those lost in the 2008-2009 recession; the number of people living in poverty is on the rise; the trade deficit is unsustainable; and government revenue is much lower than projected.<br /><br />Signals from the IMF and global markets point to more weakening of the global economy; this will have adverse consequences for remittances, tourism, alumina exports and foreign direct investments.<br /><br />Mr Holness seems to understand the challenge: "Whatever we draw as lines of separation, we want to stay together as we are in this boat together... and we can't rock this boat too much... Capsizing is not a very far-off possibility, and we must put that in this mix, and we must recognise that," he said at the press conference when he was endorsed by his parliamentary colleagues.<br /><br />He promised sobriety, equity, efficiency and continuity as the main themes of his leadership. The first three are excellent values that should be pursued as he seeks to build on the consensus around his remarkable achievement at such a tender age. Clearly, the people and his colleagues believe he possesses attributes they are seeking at this time.<br /><br />But Mr Holness may want to re-think continuity. The same voters who say they like him also say they do not like the policies that have been pursued by the administration that he helped to shape over the past four years.<br /><br />The poll numbers and just the demands of good governance say there should be discontinuity from the politics that led to the 'Dudus-Manatt' debacle which cost the country much in terms of human lives (at least 73 in Tivoli), economic and social dislocation and international reputation.<br /><br />As he waits for Mr Golding to hand over, Mr Holness would be well advised to demonstrate to the country that he has the temperament and the political savvy to do more than maintain party unity around a group of men and women notorious for squabbling.<br /><br />More importantly, he must forge consensus around the national challenges and he must do so at a time when he will be under unrelenting scrutiny: Will he retain as JLP candidates persons who are under major investigation? James Robertson and Joseph Hibbert come to mind. Will he seek to work with independent and opposition sectors or spend the time shoring up the JLP base?<br /><br />These signals, over the next few weeks, could establish new markers for the next election which, I believe, will be sooner rather than later.<br /><br />kcr@cwjamaica.com<br /><br />--------------------<br /><br /><br /><strong>"The Anderson-CVM poll found that 39 per cent would vote PNP under Mrs Simpson Miller and 35 per cent would vote for the JLP under Mr Holness"</strong><br /><br /><strong>X-1 research continues to enjoy a level of validation by the recognised opinion polling community. Again, the most important indicator is where the JLP falls in reference to the point of Central Tendency (CT). Holness ascension provide a bounce, but the necessary or critical processes to achieve a reversal in the negative trending pattern relative to CT is beyond Holness or his Party's level of commitment or available strategic initiatives available between now and General Election. Time and Strategy is not on his side.</strong><br /><br />------------<br /><br />"Portia vs Andrew — the non-surprise of the decade<br />CHRIS BURNS<br /><br />Monday, October 10, 2011<br /><br />In politics, as in life, we should be careful what we wish for, because we might just get it. The preceding caveat is important because sometimes not only do we end up with more than we bargained for, but we could also find ourselves in a bigger predicament trying to determine what exactly to do with the very thing we wished for………"<br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/Portia-vs-Andrew---the-non-surprise-of-the-decade_9862007#ixzz1aQFAHeZ5<br />-----------------<br /><br /><strong>Prime Minister Elect Mr. Holness will be caught between a rock and a very hard place. <br /><br />1. <em>Rock:</em> Call election early and capitalize on bounce euphoria (very risky). X-1's observation: Emotions cannot overcome Attitudinal. Its a process and time and experience does not allow for the development of that process. <br /><br />2. <strong><em>Very Hard Place</em>:</strong> Wait a year + and the Prime Minister Elect Holness inexperience will become so obvious that implosion will occur and the oppostion will exploit continuously.</strong><br /><br /><strong>Prepare yourself to validate X-1 Attitudinal Research Findings in Chart 3. Game Changer will be Regime Changer.</strong>X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-53431902238784695942011-09-01T16:26:00.000-07:002011-10-09T13:53:05.771-07:00Jamaica Election 2012 Attitudinal Polling<em><em>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
<br />
<br />"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.
<br />
<br />The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"</em>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />___________________________________
<br />
<br /><strong>2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research</strong>
<br />
<br />___________________________________
<br />
<br />
<br /><strong>2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
<br />
<br />
<br />Feb 6th, 2011
<br />
<br /><em>Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project</strong>
<br />
<br /><strong>Author X-1</strong>
<br />
<br /><strong><strong>I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
<br />
<br />This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.</em>
<br />
<br />
<br />Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
<br />
<br />
<br />Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
<br />
<br />The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
<br />
<br />
<br />The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
<br />
<br />The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
<br />
<br />Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
<br />
<br />
<br />“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
<br />
<br />
<br />Pureness Parameters
<br />
<br />
<br />JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
<br />
<br />PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
<br />
<br />Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
<br />
<br />Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
<br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
<br />
<br />Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
<br />
<br />http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
<br />
<br />Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
<br />
<br />Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
<br />
<br />Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
<br />
<br />
<br /> Operational Variables:
<br />
<br />These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
<br />
<br />
<br />Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
<br />
<br />Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
<br />
<br />Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
<br />
<br />Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
<br />
<br />
<br />Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
<br />
<br />Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
<br />
<br />
<br />Scaling/Measurement
<br />
<br />How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Re-inforcement of Theory
<br />
<br />This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using <strong>SPSS program</strong>, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Data Inferential Findings
<br />
<br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.</strong></strong>
<br />
<br /><strong>(Likert Scaling)</strong>
<br />
<br />http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php
<br />
<br />1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008
<br />Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
<br />According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
<br />
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__<strong><em>5</em></strong>
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___<strong><em>3</em></strong>__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1___2___3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
<br />Samuda, Shaw
<br />On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
<br />Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
<br />
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4___-3___-2<strong>_-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1___2___3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5__-4___-3___-2<strong>__-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1___2___3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1___2___3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
<br />Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
<br />
<br />Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
<br />
<br />Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
<br />Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
<br />The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
<br />"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__<strong><em>5</em></strong>
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__<strong><em><em>4</em></em></strong>__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2___3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />4. Bartlett defends office revamp
<br />Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
<br />Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
<br />Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
<br />Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
<br />
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3<strong>_-<em>2</em></strong>__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__<strong><em>2</em></strong>__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />5. We want and deserve more
<br />Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
<br />Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
<br />The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
<br />
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2<strong>__-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2<strong>__-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />6. Bruce Pays Big
<br />Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
<br />16 Comments
<br />
<br />After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
<br />A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3<strong>_-<em>2</em></strong>__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
<br />Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
<br />7 Commentsampbell
<br />Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
<br />From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
<br />Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
<br />
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3<strong>_-<em>2</em></strong>__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5<strong>__-<em>4</em></strong>__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />8. Blaine forms new political party
<br />New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
<br />BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
<br />Thursday, August 05, 2010
<br />
<br />THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
<br />"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
<br />
<br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />9. Cash Plus Drama
<br />Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
<br />18 Comments
<br />
<br />
<br />Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
<br />Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
<br />"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
<br />Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
<br />
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-<strong><em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5_-4__-3_-2<strong>_-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
<br />Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
<br />9 Comments
<br />Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
<br />Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
<br />In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
<br />
<br />
<br />Jlp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2<strong>_-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Pnp
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3__-2<strong>__-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />Nnc
<br />
<br />-5__-4__-3<strong>_-<em>2</em></strong>__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />“<strong> Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
<br />Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm </strong>
<br />
<br /><strong>Attitudinal Survey Data</strong>
<br />
<br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
<br />
<br />Jlp = +1
<br />
<br />Pnp = +5
<br />
<br />Nnc = -1
<br />
<br />
<br />Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
<br /><strong>Chart 1</strong>
<br />
<br /> -5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
<br /> .....................0.............. <strong>(1.67)</strong>
<br /> In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
<br />
<br />
<br />%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />(Survey using Proxy data)
<br />
<br />
<br />Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
<br />
<br />
<br />11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
<br />Tuesday, May 03, 2011
<br />
<br />Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
<br />A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
<br />The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
<br />The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
<br />In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
<br />Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
<br />The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
<br />In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
<br />At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
<br />The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
<br />In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
<br />In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
<br />Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
<br />
<br />
<br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
<br /> (57-26)=-31%
<br />
<br />
<br /> .................*
<br />-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
<br /> (49-38)=-11%
<br />
<br /> .....................................*
<br />-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /><strong>Chart # 2</strong>Scale 10=100
<br />
<br /> ..................... <strong>(-21%)</strong> [-31-11]
<br />-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative <strong>(-)21 </strong>for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
<br />• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is <strong>.67 </strong>to the left of <strong>1.67</strong>, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
<br />• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
<br />• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
<br />• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
<br />• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /><strong>Polling Gameology</strong>
<br />Now, here comes the ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid for pollsters will produce surveys consistent with ‘gameological’ theory.
<br />
<br />Poll Gameology Sample:
<br />
<br />"<strong>JLP bounces back - PNP lead cut in half over past 12 months</strong>Published: Thursday | July 7, 2011 33 Comments
<br />Bruce Golding addresses supporters at a 2007 party conference before the general election that brought his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to power. - File
<br />Jubilant Labourites show their support at a 2009 JLP annual conference.
<br />1 2 >
<br />
<br />The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has gained a momentum that has seen it drastically reduce the lead which the People's National Party (PNP) holds as the party more Jamaicans would vote for if an election is called today.
<br />More Jamaicans also believe the PNP would do a better job of governing the country at this time but, again, the JLP's tide is rising ominously.
<br />The JLP has made big moves in the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, while the PNP has lost support or remained stable.
<br />The latest poll, conducted islandwide from May 28 to 29 and June 4 to 5, shows that 35 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP candidate if an election is called today, while 25 per cent would vote for the JLP candidate, regardless of who is nominated to represent the two parties.
<br />Eleven per cent of the respondents said they were undecided, while 27 per cent said they would not vote.
<br />However, despite trailing the PNP by 10 percentage points, the poll provides encouraging news for the JLP, which is enjoying an upswing, while the PNP has lost some ground.
<br />When Johnson last tested the pulse of the nation in April 2010, the PNP with 38 per cent support had doubled the JLP, which had only 19 per cent of the respondents, saying they would vote for the candidates of the governing party.
<br />But in this latest poll, with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, the PNP has lost three percentage points while the JLP has gained six percentage points.
<br />"This is one case where a political party cannot be sanguine with a 10-point lead," Johnson explained.
<br />"The JLP has cut the PNP's 19 per cent lead in almost half in one year and it could be tough for the PNP unless it start giving people a reason to vote for its candidates," added Johnson.
<br />The pollster noted that the story was similar when respondents were asked which party would do a better job of governing Jamaica at this time.
<br />Forty-three per cent of Jamaicans said the PNP would do a better job in managing the affairs of the state at this time while 32 per cent made the JLP their choice.
<br />But even as the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP continues to enjoy the lead that it has held since June 2008, that poll also showed encouraging signs for the JLP.
<br />When Johnson posed the same question to Jamaicans just over one year ago, the PNP polled 43 per cent, while the JLP, with 26 per cent, was at its lowest level since 2007 and 17 percentage points behind Simpson Miller and her team.
<br />Now one year later, the PNP has not moved and the JLP has gained six percentage points, closing that gap to 11 percentage points.
<br />Even more encouraging for the JLP is the fact that its upswing has come from persons who were undecided about which party would do a better job of running the country.
<br />Last April, 30 per cent of those polled declared that they were undecided about which party would be better at directing the affairs of the state. That number is now down to 25 which is about consistent with the polling numbers for non-election years and two of the island's leading political analysts believe it spells bad news for the PNP.
<br />Troy Caine and Tony Myers agree that the signs are moving in the right direction for the JLP.
<br />"The PNP doesn't have a lot of things going in its favour as it approaches the next general election," Caine told The Gleaner.
<br />"The PNP was pushing for something to go in its favour from the Manatt-Dudus commission of enquiry and that did not work. Now, it is looking for other so-called scandals to try to discredit the JLP," Caine added.
<br />He charged that the PNP has not made efforts to woo voters. Instead, it has sat expecting Jamaicans to boot out the Bruce Golding-led government.
<br />That view is shared by Myers who is unimpressed by the actions of the PNP's Secretariat.
<br />"The PNP seems to be saying that the people will get rid of the JLP rather than telling the country how the party would deal with issues such as crime and the economy. The leadership of the PNP needs to wake up," Myers said.
<br />"The poll numbers have a lot to do with the lack of readiness of the PNP and the lack of inspiration of its Secretariat which is at a new low, below the floor," Myers added.
<br />According to Caine: "The main problem that the PNP has why it is not gaining is that it is the same old team with the same old story and Simpson Miller's lame attempt at a recent reshuffle of her shadow Cabinet has found no favour with Jamaicans."
<br />With elections constitutionally due next year, the PNP still has time to get back into gear but with the poll showing the momentum with the JLP, it will be hard work for the Opposition to change the status quo.
<br />But Caine does not believe that is impossible.
<br />"I do not hold much candle for the polls. Elections are all won at the constituency level and not on national issues."
<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110707/lead/lead1.html"
<br />
<br />
<br /><strong>“REAL VS FAKE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH </strong>
<br />Scientific Investigation
<br />
<br />The construction of testable theory, which is accomplished by scientific research methods that are conducted in a designed stimulus neutral environment for the collection of data.
<br />
<br />A research design or schematic is used to channel data into sterile and unbiased data pools from which valid and reliable inferences and deductions can be concluded.
<br />
<br />Checks and balances are utilized via randomness to neutralize contaminated data, which if not neutralized will render your research invalid and not reliable with the ultimate effect of making your findings erroneous.
<br />
<br />"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'.
<br />
<br />As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways:
<br />
<br />1) channel social agendas in a certain direction
<br />2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction
<br />3) influence social agendas in a certain direction
<br />4) influence public policy
<br />5) lead the people in a certain direction or
<br />6) Valid and reliable Social Science Research
<br />
<br />Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design that is only related to legitimate scientific investigation and the overall goal is to yield a certain type of outcome.
<br />
<br />The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior.
<br />
<br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties account for 75% of the electorate (party die hearts) 37½% each, the third party <5%. The target electorate then becomes the swing voters’ appx. 20%; of this number one only needs 11% to win. So the % of people being targeted in McPolling is comprised of 20% of the electorate with a targeted goal of 11%.
<br />
<br />
<br />Gameology Polling Method
<br />
<br />Reply #6 - Sep 16th, 2006, 6:52pm
<br />Agengi etal, visualize/imagine a three (3) way horse race. One horse dey pon de track so long that im consider it him yaad ground, and because him a favorite him always start with a 9 lengths jump start before the race even begin. (Poll: 9 points lead by the PNP over the JLP)
<br />
<br />Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/method/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shirt.
<br />
<br />So because this ya race so important teamie use all kinda different method/strategy/bandooloo fe win de race.For example, some a juck wit battery, some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo. However, because the 9 lenghts so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Stone high power Opinion survey Team). Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1, but Horse # 2 figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Stone Polls come in.
<br />
<br />Stone Team recognize de 9 point lead but dem draw fe de high power battery, tonic an oil (Opinion survey) and try and convince 11% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘theory’/game of momentum. Now if dem can sweet talk (Psychology)….
<br />
<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy
<br />
<br />…enuff people (strategically conducted Stone Polling surveys) then the goal is dat through some combination of: some people not betting and some switching dem can achieve dat 11 %. But in reality it’s a game of smoking mirrors, but if de high power battery, tonic an oil strong enuff, den dem can mek up de 9 lengths. Really its entirely possible if de 3 way guzzu (high power battery, tonic an oil) get mixed well and delivered by a master 3 card man- Stone Team. However, highly improbably because of the general voters attitude will mitigate/(work against) the reversal of the PNP’s early lead.
<br />
<br />Why 11%. Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 5% Third and others Parties equals 80%. Now dat leaves 20% of which 11% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 11 points.
<br />
<br />
<br /> The below ‘watermelon’ effect is the intended result of the Gameology method/tactic.
<br />
<br />“Although the scholars and the polling organization in question have denied the allegations, some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon effect" (this refers to the Taiwanese expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side," i.e., people tend to jump on the bandwagon).
<br />
<br />
<br /><strong>This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007. In 2012 Attitudinal under current will determine the results and X has completed a predictive model 18 months in advance using Affect Control Theory to measure attitudes of potential voters. The results of which are contained herein. Prepare yourself accordingly as X’s predictive model indicates that the government will change from JLP to PNP.</strong>
<br />
<br />-------------
<br />
<br />A poll conducted by the Jamaica Sunday Herald also confirms the negative trending pattern occuring with the government, further validating X-1 Attitudinal Research.
<br />
<br />"Should this government be given a second term?
<br />Select Poll Select a poll from the listDo you have any regrets about the amounts you have spent so far this Christmas season?Do you think the government is handling the tax on liquor properly?Which minister should be dropped from the Cabinet?Should this government be given a second term?
<br />Number of Voters:901
<br />First Vote:Sunday, 27 February 2011 18:11
<br />Last Vote:Friday, 08 July 2011 21:09Should this government be given a second term?
<br />Hits Percent Graph
<br />No
<br />587 65.1%
<br />Yes
<br />314 34.9% "
<br />
<br />___________________
<br />
<br /><strong>Gameology Polling Method Cont</strong>
<br />
<br /><strong>Well Pollster Bill Johnson has established himself as the new Mark Wignall of Polling. His Watermelon strategy to lead the JLP into the General Election is trending with Gameology sitting in the Drivers seat.</strong>
<br />
<br />
<br />Green surge - JLP slices into PNP's lead in the polls even before Holness' selection
<br />Published: Sunday | October 9, 2011 22 Comments
<br />
<br />
<br />Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
<br />
<br />THE BIG green object looming in the rear-view mirror of the People's National Party's (PNP) orange election jeep is closer than it appears.
<br />
<br />The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has started to close the gap on the PNP, even before Labourities get the expected bounce from their decision to select Andrew Holness to replace the tarnished Bruce Golding.
<br />
<br />The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, which was conducted between October 1 and 2 in 84 communities across the island, found the JLP only six percentage points behind the PNP as the party most Jamaicans would vote for if the election is called now.
<br />
<br />
<br />That represents a big forward move for the JLP, which trailed the PNP by 10 percentage points when a similar question was asked by Johnson and his team of researchers in June.
<br />This is the closest the JLP has come to the PNP since August 2009, when a similar six points separated the two parties.
<br />
<br />The opposition PNP has led the governing JLP in all the Gleaner-commissioned Johnson polls conducted after the Bruce Golding-led party won the 2007 general election.
<br />
<br />"But the PNP has not moved from between 35 and 38 per cent for that entire period. It has been at 36 points, plus or minus two points, over 40 months," Johnson noted.
<br />
<br />"Even when persons were shying away from the JLP and saying that the party was messing up, the PNP was not gaining. It has been dead in the water and that is not the way you win an election," declared Johnson.
<br />
<br />He noted that at the height of the Government's messy handling of the extradition request for confessed gangster Christopher 'Dudus' Coke, the PNP's lead over the JLP was two-to-one at a staggering 19 per cent.
<br />
<br />"The JLP obviously dipped significantly in April 2010 but in the 18 months following, the party has gained 13 points - that is almost one point each month and shows that the JLP is alive while the PNP's numbers have been dead," the pollster told The Sunday Gleaner.
<br />
<br />In the latest poll, the JLP's support moved up from 25 per cent in June to 31 per cent. The PNP's support climbed marginally from 35 per cent in June to 37 per cent this time around.
<br />
<br />The poll was conducted days after Golding announced that he was quitting come November and while the issue of who would replace him was still up in the air, even though Holness appeared the frontrunner.
<br />
<br />JLP's ratings could improve
<br />
<br />With Holness now seeming certain to get the nod, political analysts expect the JLP's popularity rating to improve.
<br />
<br />"I think that Holness will get a bounce in the polls for the JLP as he replaces Golding, who became unpopular over his handling of the Manatt-Dudus affair," sociologist Dr Orville Taylor told The Sunday Gleaner.
<br />
<br />"Outside of his handling of the Manatt issue, most people can't think of five other things that Golding did to make him so unpopular to the point where he was dragging the party down," added Taylor.
<br />
<br />The university lecturer and talk-show host argued that Holness is similar to PNP President Portia Simpson Miller, who, even if not the best person to lead their parties, are believed to be the best to ensure electoral victory.
<br />
<br />"I actually see some sharp parallels between Simpson Miller and Holness so he could enjoy a bounce in the polls similar to what we saw when she was elected to lead the PNP."
<br />
<br />The PNP's popularity climbed sharply on the back of record approval ratings for Simpson Miller in the immediate aftermath of her 2006 victory in the race to replace P.J. Patterson as president of the party and prime minister.
<br />
<br />Simpson Miller remains one of Jamaica's most popular politicians, but a decline in her approval rating going into the 2007 general election, and an even greater decline in the support for the PNP, saw her presiding over the party's first general election defeat in 18 years.
<br />
<br />She is expected to lead her party into another election contest some time within the next 11 months against a JLP led by the 39-year-old Holness, with the poll showing the momentum is now with the governing party.
<br />
<br />With a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, the latest poll suggests that the country could be in for another exciting election contest.
<br />
<br />arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
<br />
<br />PNP - 37%
<br />JLP - 31%
<br />
<br />X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-59616377654876923292011-09-01T16:18:00.000-07:002011-09-01T16:22:24.854-07:00Brain Reading Devicehttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
<br />
<br />The QWERTY keyboard has dominated computer typing for more than 40 years, but a new breakthrough that translates human thought into digital text may spell the beginning of the end for manual word processing. A first step toward such mind-reading has come from using brain scans to identify certain thoughts with certain words.
<br />
<br />The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.
<br />
<br /><strong>"The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute. </strong>Brain-reading devices would likely first help paralyzed people such as physicist Stephen Hawking, but still won't happen for years, Botvinick cautioned. There is also the problem of making brain scan technologies more portable, if ordinary people hope to get a shot at freeing up their hands from typing.
<br />
<br />Yet Botvinick envisioned a future where such technology could translate any mental content about not just objects, but also people, actions, abstract concepts and relationships.
<br />
<br />One existing technology allows patients suffering from complete paralysis — known as locked-in syndrome — to use their eyes to select one letter at a time to form words. Another lab prototype allows patients to make synthesized voices by using their thoughts to create certain vowel sounds, even if they can't yet form coherent words. But truly direct thought-to-word translation remains out of reach.
<br />
<br />That's where the current work comes into play. Botvinick had first worked with Francisco Pereira, a Princeton postdoctoral researcher, and Greg Detre, a researcher who obtained his Ph.D. from Princeton, on using brain-activity patterns to reconstruct images that volunteers viewed during a brain scan. But the research soon inspired them to try expressing certain elements in words rather than pictures.
<br />
<br />First, they used a Princeton-developed computer program to come up with 40 possible topics based on Wikipedia articles that contained words associated with such topics. They then created a color-coded system to identify probability of certain words being related to an object that a volunteer thought about while reading a Wikipedia article during a brain scan.
<br />
<br />In one case, a more red word showed that a person was more likely to associate it with "cow." A bright blue word suggested a strong connection to "carrot," and black or gray words had no specific association.
<br />
<br />There are still limits. The researchers can tell if participants had thoughts of vegetables, but can't distinguish between "carrot" versus "celery." They hope to make their method more sensitive to such details in the future.
<br />
<br />X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-17787624432244803342011-07-09T10:39:00.000-07:002011-07-23T10:00:15.692-07:00Jamaica Election 2012 Stone MethodologyThe following quote “” was my opening post in the Jamaica Gleaner Newspaper Discussion Forum when I started the most recent version of X’s Stone Methodology Research Blog. Coincidentally, in June 2011 the Gleaner Discussion Forum disappeared. I re-created the Stone Methodology Blog topic in the Jamaica Star Newspaper Discussion Forum in July 2011, one (1) day later, the Star Discussion Forum disappeared. As this is cyber world with multiple uncontrollable variables I am under no illusion that my blogs contributed to the disappearances; however, during the height of my 2007 version I was blocked from accessing my blog and hence the name change from Xx to X-1. Is this censorship? I can speculate, but cannot validate; so I will call these occurrences ‘coincidental’.<br /><br />“This project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache” (2/2011, Jamaica Gleaner Discussion Forum, X-1)<br /><br /><strong>2007 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version</strong><br /> “Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design<br />Sep 14th, 2006, 8:12pm <br />The tradition lives on <br />Carl Stone protégé Ian Boxill is the new pollster <br />BY DESMOND ALLEN Executive Editor - Operations <br />Sunday, September 10, 2006 <br /> <br />WITHIN a day of the publication of the last in the series of opinion survey results in the latest Stone Polls, Dr Ian Boxill's telephone was ringing off the hook. <br />Many of the calls, predictably, originated from the talk shows. Everybody wanted a piece of Boxill, who had just been publishing his first polls as head of the Stone Polling Team that conducted the August 2006 survey. <br /> <br /> <br />The team (from left clockwise) Dr Ian Boxill, Arlene Bailey, Roy Russell, Dr Lloyd Waller, and Dr Lawrence Alfred Powell <br />It was at the end of an excruciating week for the politicians... on both sides. <br /> <br />For the first six days of the polls, Portia Simpson Miller was creaming Bruce Golding. The Labourites winced with each day's results and cursed Boxill and his team under their breaths, while the Comrades celebrated. <br />Then on the seventh day, the polls turned on its own head and showed Golding's Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) within striking distance of Simpson Miller's People's National Party (PNP), reversing what might have been seen as the PNP gone clear. It was the Comrades' time to curse the pollsters. <br /> <br />Jamaicans are notorious for loving the polls when the numbers favour their sides and, conversely, hating them when they favour the other side. Still, Boxill was taken off guard by the overwhelming response to the latest results..... <br /> <br /> <br />"The faculty has a strong tradition of research. The Department of Government where Carl Stone was, is where it all started. We are especially happy to be involved in the polls because Carl Stone started it. We are continuing the tradition and we will endeavour to maintain the reputation of the Stone Polls," he pledged. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #1 - Sep 14th, 2006, 8:13pm <br />With the political season upon us again the 'Polling' Scientists are starting to fine tune their Polling Research strategies disguised as "Scientific 'Representative' Research" <br /> <br />So here goes the launching of the mirror to reveal the triangulation imagery behind the 'strategies' of the Stone Team. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />REAL VS FAKE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH <br /> <br />Scientific Investigation <br /> <br />The construction of testable theory, which is accomplished by scientific research methods that are conducted in a designed stimulus neutral environment for the collection of data. <br /> <br />A research design or schematic is used to channel data into sterile and unbiased data pools from which valid and reliable inferences and deductions can be concluded. <br /> <br />Checks and balances are utilized via randomness to neutralize contaminated data, which if not neutralized will render your research invalid and not reliable with the ultimate effect of making your findings erroneous. <br /> <br />"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'. <br /> <br />As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways: <br /> <br />1) channel social agendas in a certain direction <br />2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction <br />3) influence social agendas in a certain direction <br />4) influence public policy <br />5) lead the people in a certain direction or <br />6) Valid and reliable Social Science Research <br /> <br />Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design that is only related to legitimate scientific investigation and the overall goal is to yield a certain type of outcome. <br /> <br />The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior. <br /> <br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties account for 75% of the electorate (party die hearts) 37½% each, the third party <5%. The target electorate then becomes the swing voters’ appx. 20%; of this number one only needs 11% to win. So the % of people being targeted in McPolling is comprised of 20% of the electorate with a targeted goal of 11%. <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #2 - Sep 15th, 2006, 3:33am <br />Preliminary flaws within the Stone Research Design <br /> <br />The supposedly pre-eminent Opinion Poll Researcher “was taken off guard” by the overwhelming response on his team’s first set of opinion poll findings. <br /> <br />"Jamaicans are notorious for loving the polls when the numbers favour their sides and, conversely, hating them when they favour the other side. Still, Boxill was taken off guard by the overwhelming response to the latest results…" <br /> <br />That’s like Ms. Cleo not 'seeing' her downfall coming as a renowned psychic. One would think that a pre-eminent pollster would not be overwhelmed by the initial reactions due to: <br /> <br />1.The controversial meltdown that the Stone Poll Team experienced in the last election Polling season <br /> <br />2.The reputation of the Carl Stone <br /> <br />3.The importance of Elections in Jamaica <br /> <br />4. The grand entry of his 'famous' team without defining the scope of each team member. <br /> <br />An accomplished Social Research Scientist worth his or her salt would not be "taken off guard" by the initial reactions. <br /> <br />This apparent Prima Facie social science 'participant knowledge cultural ineptitude' ultimately affects the methodological approach and quality of the opinion polling research construction design by: the enhancement of ‘false positives’, less than accurate question design construction because of a subtle lack knowledge of the subjects/participants, and a subtle misread of the ‘general universe’ terrain from which the Scientist is trying to extract representative opinions. <br /> <br />Other fundamental flaws in the Stone research design model include, the nexus between the gross intended scope of the Opinion Polling (predicting the winner of the next general election) and the Working Universe (participants) from which the opinions are being obtained and then literally LEAPING OVER MOUNTAINS to make representative inferences in a election landscape that includes individual voting constituencies which possess their own unique and relative cultural and election behaviors variables. <br /> <br />The above represents formidable obstacles for the Stone Team and if not dealt with in a genuine scientific way through a more adequate and operational research design and execution of their polling methodology/strategy, then this illustrious group may fall on the same credibility piercing pen that was left behind in the Stone Polling Office by Mr. Wignal. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #3 - Sep 16th, 2006, 5:52am <br />Yes Mr. X shine de light. <br /> <br /> <br />"The Jamaica Gleaner <br />BY PETER ESPEUT <br /> <br />POLITICAL POLLS <br />The only quarrel I ever had with the late Professor Carl Stone was when I suggested that his polls did not just reflect public opinion, but actually helped to form it. My suggestion was that the publication of polls indicating victory for one side could discourage supporters of the other side from voting making the poll a self-fulfilling prophecy. It could even demoralise the runner-up party and cause them to reduce their efforts, thus favouring the poll-leader. To this day, I can't understand why Carl took such strong umbrage at my suggestion. He raised his voice and was adamant that his polls only reflected opinion, and did not create it. <br /> <br />Many believe that polls create public opinion in even more substantial ways, especially in the Jamaican context of tribalism and patronage. If supporting the winner means that I become a candidate for scarce benefits and spoils, then if the polls declare which party will win and I want political favours, then I might get on the bandwagon and vote for the sure winner. And even without the patronage, humans are social animals and like to follow crowds. It is for this reason that political polling has itself become political. In 1980 when Stone's poll foretold a JLP victory, another poll was commissioned which predicted a PNP victory. Today, much more subtle tactics are at work. Why if there are two political opinion polls declaring that the PNP is winning, does the PNP have to employ their own pollster - a foreigner? Don't they trust the local pollsters? Should we? <br /> <br />The methods that Carl Stone used (as he explained them to me) were not "scientific" in the strict sense of the word. He did not use "random sampling" or "stratified random sampling" or "scientific sampling" to determine who he interviewed. He analysed how each and every polling division has voted since the first General Election of 1944, and identified the PDs which showed a swing to the winning party. However, those PDs voted, the whole constituencies voted, and he only surveyed these swing PDs. This method worked for him, and he always got it more-or-less right, and he thumbed his nose at the purist critics of his "unscientific" methods. <br /> <br />How the margin of error (always said to be plus or minus three per cent) can be reliably calculated using this idiosyncratic method, I have never been able to discover. With internal migration and the growing garrisonisation of Jamaica, the number of these swing PDs must be shrinking. But if publication of the polls influences public opinion, we may never know how reliable this method of polling really is." <br /> <br /> <br />A triumph for democracy <br />Changing Times Kevin O'Brien Chang <br />Monday, October 21, 2002 <br />”This campaign's biggest loser was the Stone polls, whose inexplicable fluctuations destroyed their credibility. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #4 - Sep 16th, 2006, 6:20am <br />Yes, bredrin the Polling season is upon us again and the Polling Witch Doctors are off with a bang, but dont fear a mirror is here. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />"B.F. Skinner (radical behaviorism) <br /> <br />The central explanation Skinner offers for all behavior is the form of learning called operant conditioning. <br />Operant conditioning occurs when a response produces positive reinforcement, or reward. According to Skinner, positive reinforced responses will be repeated, while those that go unrewarded will not be repeated. Skinner argued that any complex behavior maybe analyzed into chains of simply operant responses. He does not believe in the importance of, or even the existence of , internal processes and structures. He argued that all changes we observe in human behavior are a matter of accumulated learning. <br /> <br />Ivan Pavlov (respondent conditioning) <br /> <br />“Respondent conditioning occurs when a neutral stimulus (e.g., a bell-{no pun intended}) is repeatedly presented in association with an unconditioned stimulus (for e.g. food). An unconditioned stimulus is an event that reliably produces an unconditioned response (as food evokes salivation). After a number of trials in which the neutral and unconditioned stimuli are paired, the neutral stimulus will begin to evoke the unconditioned response even when it is presented alone (e.g the bell evokes salivation even before the food appears). Pavlov believes that language and thought control behavior as a product of respondent conditioning. e.g. If the word ‘bad’ is paired with a slap on the hand, hand withdrawal will eventually occur when a parent shouts ‘bad’ . Later in life, the phrase ‘Tom is a bad man’ will produce the withdrawal responses and the emotional responses associated with the word ‘bad’." <br /> <br /> <br />Just in case anyone thinks this Political strategy that is being employed by the Funder and Stakeholders is a joke read the above again and conduct your own "google" research on the subject of behavioral conditioning and then make the connections. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #5 - Sep 16th, 2006, 11:27am <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 14th, 2006, 8:12pm:<br />Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design <br /><br />Can the semi-illiterates among us get a summary; would love to know what is going on with the poll and politics thingy? <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #6 - Sep 16th, 2006, 6:52pm <br />Agengi etal, visualize/imagine a three (3) way horse race. One horse dey pon de track so long that im consider it him yaad ground, and because him a favorite him always start with a 9 lengths jump start before the race even begin. (Poll: 9 points lead by the PNP over the JLP) <br /> <br />Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/method/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shirt. <br /> <br />So because this ya race so important teamie use all kinda different method/strategy/bandooloo fe win de race.For example, some a juck wit battery, some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo. However, because the 9 lenghts so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Stone high power Opinion survey Team). Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1, but Horse # 2 figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Stone Polls come in. <br /> <br />Stone Team recognize de 9 point lead but dem draw fe de high power battery, tonic an oil (Opinion survey) and try and convince 11% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘theory’/game of momentum. Now if dem can sweet talk (Psychology)…. <br /> <br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy <br /> <br />…enuff people (strategically conducted Stone Polling surveys) then the goal is dat through some combination of: some people not betting and some switching dem can achieve dat 11 %. But in reality it’s a game of smoking mirrors, but if de high power battery, tonic an oil strong enuff, den dem can mek up de 9 lengths. Really its entirely possible if de 3 way guzzu (high power battery, tonic an oil) get mixed well and delivered by a master 3 card man- Stone Team. However, highly improbably because of numerous other factors such as: Age, Race and Gender that will mitigate/(work against) the reversal of the 9 % lead. <br /> <br />Why 11%. Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 5% Third and others Parties equals 80%. Now dat leaves 20% of which 11% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 11 points. <br /> <br />Dats de game in a nut shell. <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br />« Last Edit: Sep 17th, 2006, 5:37am by Xx » <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #7 - Sep 16th, 2006, 7:31pm <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 16th, 2006, 6:52pm:<br />Dats de game in a nut shell. <br /><br />Dat nut is too big still. <br />Dat nut is a big as some a di Pacific coconuts. <br /> <br />As far as the elections are concerned, we need to be more alert at the machinations of the 'regime changers' and their dollars influencing Jahmaican elections. <br /> <br />I'd be more concerned about them than with stone dead polls; unless of course their dollars are funding the shenanigans there; because the ‘regime changers’ will use unscientific polls to give the illusion that the JLP has a chance. This will set up the conditions for tampering with the Jahmaican election and cause a victory by the JLP to not look so surprising. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #8 - Sep 17th, 2006, 8:00am <br />Its a Big High Stakes game, access to Billions of dollars, power and influence over a nation of people that ultimately includes you. <br /> <br />No dis, but you must challenge yourself to understand the game, which means venturing outside of your comfort zone to over some of the tactics being used to manipulate 'our' community. If not, you will remain in the 'manipulation' zone. But it looks like you understand more than you are admitting from your comments so far. <br /> <br />The Stone Team are hired guns and are not necessarily friendly to the government so their approach will ultimately show an opposition friendly bias in their general under tones and tactics, even at the risk of damaging their reputation. Thats what money can buy. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #9 - Sep 17th, 2006, 2:26pm <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 17th, 2006, 8:00am:<br /><br />The Stone Team are hired guns and are not necessarily friendly to the government so their approach will ultimately show an opposition friendly bias in their general under tones and tactics, even at the risk of damaging their reputation. Thats what money can buy. <br /><br />The question is, 'who is paying' the stone head? <br />And what 'reputation'? <br />Also there is a well known saying, 'every body has his price'. <br /> <br />Playing around with polls by itself is not that big a deal. I don't think Jahmaican voters for the most part could care less. <br /> <br />The problem is when the playing with polls is a means to cover more sinister moves by the stoogies of 'regime changers' who haave an almost inexhaustable amount of money to do 'regime changes' around the world. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #10 - Sep 17th, 2006, 7:34pm <br />Agengi, 'your' fight with Uncle Sam is not really what this thread is about, I am sure Mr. X would agree if I understand his theory correctly. <br /> <br />I am sure a person of your knowledge can decipher the focus of this thread and respond accordingly. Your argument maybe secondarily related where common interest is present between the funder Gorstew, from Observer newspaper background and business/economic/political geographic powers such as your Uncle Sam example. <br /> <br />Try and concentrate on the primary focus, that way you will be able to clearly see the trees that make up the forest of globalization of which you are so interested. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #11 - Sep 18th, 2006, 7:38am <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 17th, 2006, 7:34pm:<br />Agengi, 'your' fight with Uncle Sam is not really what this thread is about, I am sure Mr. X would agree if I understand his theory correctly. <br /><br />..... <br /><br />Try and concentrate on the primary focus, that way you will be able to clearly see the trees that make up the forest of globalization of which you are so interested. <br /><br />Look, some of people can’t 'walk and chew gum at the same time'. <br />They may not be able to deal with interrelated issues at one and the same time. That's understandable. <br /> <br />However, their lack of broad vision/deliberate efforts at distraction does not mean that Ajengi will neglect to 'focus' on what is significant to Jahmaica's self-determination, but which will be missed if we are distracted more superficial shenanigans and machinations of those who do not have the nation‘s best interest at heart. <br /> <br />If Stone polls are being used for propaganda purposes in order to distract and dissuade Jahmaicans from a more truthful perception of the actual state of affairs, it makes good sense to inquire about who is funding the Stone Poll propaganda efforts. <br /> <br />We know from their history that the 'regime changers', because of their imperial delusions, have their hands in EVERY national election on the planet. Jahmaican national election will be no exception! <br /> <br />The use of polls and things of that nature to influence public opinion, is only one evil effort used by the 'regime changers', but only as a first resort. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #12 - Sep 21st, 2006, 7:24pm <br />In general, opinion polls are inherently prone to errors. They represent a cross between scientific research and public relations advocacy. Consequently, its fundamental design is flawed. This can be further complicated by researchers trying to operationalize genuine social science research tool to fit into their political conceptual paradigm. <br /> <br />The Stone Team being sponsored and designed in an advocacy and special interest environment is operating within 'no win' boundaries similar to Wignal's methodology. They will not be able to deliver on the "momentum" strategy being employed and in the end will exhibit eratic findings that will reflect the "election winning reality" to save face, just like Wignal. <br /> <br />__________________________ <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />http://www.ncpp.org/qajsa.htm <br /> <br /> <br />"What is the sampling error for the poll results? <br />Interviews with a scientific sample of 1,000 adults can accurately reflect the opinions of nearly 210 million American adults. That means interviews attempted with all 210 million adults – if such were possible – would give approximately the same results as a well-conducted survey based on 1,000 interviews. <br /> <br />What happens if another carefully done poll of 1,000 adults gives slightly different results from the first survey? Neither of the polls is "wrong." This range of possible results is called the error due to sampling, often called the margin of error. <br /> <br />This is not an "error" in the sense of making a mistake. Rather, it is a measure of the possible range of approximation in the results because a sample was used. <br /> <br />Pollsters express the degree of the certainty of results based on a sample as a "confidence level." This means a sample is likely to be within so many points of the results one would have gotten if an interview were attempted with the entire target population. Most polls are usually reported using the 95% confidence level. <br /> <br />Thus, for example, a "3 percentage point margin of error" in a national poll means that if the attempt were made to interview every adult in the nation with the same questions in the same way at the same time as the poll was taken, the poll's answers would fall within plus or minus 3 percentage points of the complete count’s results 95% of the time. <br /> <br />This does not address the issue of whether people cooperate with the survey, or if the questions are understood, or if any other methodological issue exists. The sampling error is only the portion of the potential error in a survey introduced by using a sample rather than interviewing the entire population. Sampling error tells us nothing about the refusals or those consistently unavailable for interview; it also tells us nothing about the biasing effects of a particular question wording or the bias a particular interviewer may inject into the interview situation. It also applies only to scientific surveys. <br /> <br />Remember that the sampling error margin applies to each figure in the results – it is at least 3 percentage points plus or minus for each one in our example. Thus, in a poll question matching two candidates for President, both figures are subject to sampling error. <br /> <br />What other kinds of factors can skew poll results? <br />The margin of sampling error is just one possible source of inaccuracy in a poll. It is not necessarily the source of the greatest possible error; we use it because it's the only one that can be quantified. And, other things being equal, it is useful for evaluating whether differences between poll results are meaningful in a statistical sense. <br /> <br />Question phrasing and question order are also likely sources of flaws. Inadequate interviewer training and supervision, data processing errors and other operational problems can also introduce errors. Professional polling operations are less subject to these problems than volunteer-conducted polls, which are usually less trustworthy. Be particularly careful of polls conducted by untrained and unsupervised college students. There have been several cases where the results were at least in part reported by the students without conducting any survey at all. <br /> <br />You should always ask if the poll results have been "weighted." This process is usually used to account for unequal probabilities of selection and to adjust slightly the demographics in the sample. You should be aware that a poll could be manipulated unduly by weighting the numbers to produce a desired result. While some weighting may be appropriate, other weighting is not. Weighting a scientific poll is only appropriate to reflect unequal probabilities or to adjust to independent values that are mostly constant" <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #13 - Sep 21st, 2006, 11:10pm <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 21st, 2006, 7:24pm:<br />The Stone Team being sponsored and designed in an advocacy and special interest environment is operating within 'no win' boundaries similar to Wignal's methodology. They will not be able to deliver on the "momentum" strategy being employed and in the end will exhibit eratic findings that will reflect the "election winning reality" to save face, just like Wignal. <br /><br />Any politician who is worth his salt is going to do his own polling, and will try to do it as objectively as possible. <br /> <br />Where power or wealth is involved outsiders can't be trusted to not be using their polling to their own special interest ends. <br /> <br />As long as we can't have any confidence that the people of the Stone Poll are not being bought off, the wiser minds are going to dismiss their poll. <br />Figures may not lie; but liars will figure a way to slant their polls to their desired end. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #14 - Sep 22nd, 2006, 5:00am <br />JLP leaving poll commentary to 'armchair' politicians, pundits <br /> <br />BY ERICA VIRTUE Observer writer <br />Friday, September 22, 2006 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />THE Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) said yesterday that it was not its policy to comment on poll findings as this was a job reserved for 'armchair' politicians experts and pundits. <br /> <br />"We don't enter into discussion on polls. We leave that to the 'armchair' politicians," JLP general secretary Karl Samuda told the Observer yesterday, in response to the latest Don Anderson/CVM polls that showed a dead heat for party support between the Opposition and the ruling People's National Party (PNP). <br /> <br />Said Samuda: "All the experts we hear every day and the pundits who are talking, we leave it [commentary] to them." Instead, Samuda said the party was "focussed" on a campaign "designed around a work programme". <br /> <br />Unlike Samuda, PNP general secretary Colin Campbell had a lot to say about the recent poll findings, which came two weeks after the completion of poll results published by the Observer and done by the Stone Organisation. The results showed the PNP as the party preferred to form the next government, and the preferred choice among the undecided voters. <br /> <br />"The poll results [Anderson/CVM] are consistent with other polls that have been done," Campbell told the Observer yesterday. <br />He added: "The results show four things. One, the JLP has been on the road for two months and have gotten no movement; two, the PNP support has declined; three, the uncommitted is swelling and, four, the uncommitted prefers the PNP." <br /> <br />The Anderson/CVM poll showed that among registered voters, 48.5 per cent of respondents would like to see the PNP form the next government, while 44.1 per cent said they would like to see the JLP. Six per cent said they did not know, and 1.3 per cent said none of the parties. <br /> <br />Again, among registered voters, 37.2 per cent said they were likely to vote for the PNP in September 2006, while 36.8 said the JLP. <br />The figure represents a 2.2 per cent increase over findings in October 2005, when 35 per cent of respondents said they would likely vote PNP and 34 per cent JLP. <br />But despite the JLP's official position on poll commentary, it uses the results to guide the party. <br /> <br />"Polls are not something that you can ignore," Samuda conceded. <br />"So, we use them as a guide. Sufficient to say that we are quite confident that the direction in which we are going, we will overtake the PNP and go on to form the next government," Samuda added. <br />But Campbell suggested that the figures would swing after the PNP's campaign hit the road" <br />_________________________ <br /> <br /> <br />All polling being conducted are faced with the same inherent errors because its a design/discipline flaw fundamental to its core concept. In essence, its not science but cross bred. However, layered on top of those <br />fundamental flaws are 'man made ones' which reflect special interest/political leanings and funder biases. <br /> <br />There are polls and researchers and then there are "polls and researchers". There are researchers in search of samples, and then there are samples in search or researchers. <br /> <br />However, Xx will focus on the Stone Team because calculated correlations based on legimate social scientific theories embedded in relative stable variables such as: Race, gender, age, demographics and cultural mores indicate that the Stone Team possesses a higher risk of not being successful if they continue to follow the obvious method and strategy previously utilized by the Wignal team. <br /> <br />The rival poll(s) may benefit from lesser risks and chance just because they may be on the winning side in the end. Hence, my constructive criticism/critiques will fall on deaf ears and appear impotent if focused on the winner as opposed to the one that eventually comes in second. The Stone Team just happens to be a better guniea pig under the relative circumstances, however there are risks involved. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #15 - Sep 22nd, 2006, 2:29pm <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 22nd, 2006, 5:00am:<br />JLP leaving poll commentary to 'armchair' politicians, pundits <br /><br />That position unwittingly makes sense; since the 'onlooker sees more of the game.' <br /> <br />Methinks that Xx is taking these political polls too seriously? <br /> <br />The thing is; polling is more of an art than a science. <br />The most that the 'best polling' available can do is to give some hint of a particular outcome. If done rigorously enough, these political polling is at most an intelligent guess. <br /> <br />The bigger issue with political polling is its propaganda effect. <br />When the poll seems to favor one side, then that side will milk its pro-outcome for all its worth to a gullible and unscientific public. <br /> <br />When the poll seems to favor the opponent, then the reverse spin is applied; such as "leaving poll commentary to 'armchair' politicians, pundits". <br /> <br />In other words, polling is all a superstitious game. <br />It's like reading tarot cards. <br />The propaganda effect of polling is the real deal, which will vary with the relative sophistication of the populace. <br /> <br />And when we have a relatively undereducated population, we have to be concerned about who is funding the pollsters, who is trying to accomplish a particular propaganda effect. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #16 - Sep 22nd, 2006, 9:39pm <br />Quote from Ajengi on Sep 22nd, 2006, 2:29pm:<br /><br /><br />The propaganda effect of polling is the real deal, which will vary with the relative sophistication of the populace. <br />And when we have a relatively undereducated population, we have to be concerned about who is funding the pollsters, who is trying to accomplish a particular propaganda effect. <br /><br /> <br />Aj, what would be the "propaganda effect" intent? Maybe to manipulate the 11% of an 'unsophistocated' electorate to ultimately obtain a certain desired result? <br /> <br />Just asking, because 11% of any general electorate maybe unaware of the potential of the potent mix of psychological behaviorism and vox populi, and just may acquiese to a certain level of inducement. This maybe more prominent if voter turnout is low and consequently proportionally lowers that 11%. A man of your reasoning should be very concerned with this type of possibility as your feared regime change could be a reality. <br /> <br />Based on your statement above it looks like you may fall within that 11%, because on one hand you appear to be very concerned with manipulation, regime change and beneficiaries, but on the other you dismiss polling behavioral inducement as intelligent guess. <br /> <br />You have made your own argument of why you should take this election season polling seriously, if for nothing else the strong dollars being invested, as PhD are not cheap and the potential of opinions to be more than just an intelligent guess if designed and executed by master puppeteers, and the Stone team possesses such a potential. <br /> <br />My interest lies primarily within the "purist" nexus of scientific research and the bastard relative of opinion polling that lends itself to advocacy and manipulation. I have no dogs in race. <br /> <br />Anyway, you are entitled to your opinion and I support your right 100%. <br /> <br />I do not agree with your assertion that the general population is "undereducated", because there are degrees of intelligence different from "education" and 'Farmer George' was one of the most intelligent people(s) I've met. May not be "educated" but highly intelligent and in this case if exposed to the arguments of psychological behaviorism and vox populi they will be able to comprehend the concept and thwart the advances of the Stone team's "momentum rope-a- dope" strategy. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #17 - Sep 23rd, 2006, 7:53am <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 22nd, 2006, 9:39pm:<br /><br />Aj, what would be the "propaganda effect" intent? Maybe to manipulate the 11% of an 'unsophistocated' electorate to ultimately obtain a certain desired result? <br /> <br />You are warm. <br />However, I was thinking more in terms of the manipulation of the more than 89% of the population who are not mathematically sophisticated enough to understand the variables involved/chosen in polling and how they are weighed/used to determine the pollsters' final conclusions. <br /> <br />That is why I'm suggesting that the most important effect of the polls is the propaganda effect, how the final conclusion (accurate or inaccurate, reasonable or unreasonable) are used on the minds of the potential voters. <br />Even decided people are so influenced. <br /> <br />If the poll is pro-party A, like a 'good' rumor it will instill at least psychic confidence, and energize party members. <br />A pro-poll can also make some party members so lax that they are not even inclined to turn out on election day. <br />That is why prior to the election date, the alert party hacks will keep reminding voters to 'go out and vote' and not feel too confident about a positive poll result. <br /> <br />If the poll is anti-party A, then it will likely deflate party members and discourage them from proceeding with much vigor. Sure a negative polling result may make some party members redouble their efforts. <br /> <br />However, considering all of the above effects, the favorable polling results are going to have the edge because of its positive propaganda effect. <br /> <br />Quote:<br />Based on your statement above it looks like you may fall within that 11%, because on one hand you appear to be very concerned with manipulation, regime change and beneficiaries, but on the other you dismiss polling behavioral inducement as intelligent guess. <br /><br />I am suggesting that the polling itself is an intelligent guess; because the variables and their interactions asumed to be involved in voter decision-making aren't scientific. It's all guess work done by intelligent people. <br /> <br />And no, I wouldn't fall in your 11%. I'm siding with the lesser evil. <br /> <br />Quote:<br />You have made your own argument of why you should take this election season polling seriously, if for nothing else the strong dollars being invested, as PhD are not cheap and the potential of opinions to be more than just an intelligent guess if designed and executed by master puppeteers, and the Stone team possesses such a potential. <br /><br />Exactly! <br />Quote:<br />My interest lies primarily within the "purist" nexus of scientific research and the bastard relative of opinion polling that lends itself to advocacy and manipulation. I have no dogs in race. <br /><br />I gather as much from your posts. <br />However, we shouldn't be unmindful of the fact that 'scientific research' is best done in a cohesive society, and that the chances are one side will better contribute to societal cohesion. <br />I would suggest that you get your dam dog in the 'race'. After all, that's what those expendable creatures are for, to go where you wouldn't want to bother going yourself. <br />Truth be told, all I have in the race is a 'dog'. <br /> <br /> <br />Quote:<br />I do not agree with your assertion that the general population is "undereducated", because there are degrees of intelligence different from "education" and 'Farmer George' was one of the most intelligent people(s) I've met. May not be "educated" but highly intelligent and in this case if exposed to the arguments of psychological behaviorism and vox populi they will be able to comprehend the concept and thwart the advances of the Stone team's "momentum rope-a- dope" strategy. <br /><br />You don't need to 'agree' if you find it uncomfortable. <br />All you need to do is examine the level of education necessary to appreciate the intricacies of polling; and then ask yourself what percentage of Jahmaicans can appreciate the intricacies involved. What level of education is normally required to delve meaningfully into the kind of thinking that goes into polling. <br />I can asure you that your ordinary high school level of thinking need not apply. <br />And of the higher-education minds that may understand, they are going to come from the relatively fewer mathematical minded. <br /> <br />So all this poll talk is more propaganda that practical, more rumor mongering than reality. <br />Polling is essentially rumor mongering of the intelligentsia, high clas.s rumor. <br /> <br />And we know how Jahmaica is the ready dry bush for the rumor fires. <br />That is why I for one am more concerned about who may be trying to pull Jahmaican strings via polling, and to what end. <br /> <br />If the whole game was solely among Jahmaicans, I wouldn't mind too much; but I know for sure that the evil 'regime changers' do not just low an election in any country. They are into planet-wide influence. They will use an propaganda means necessary; but only as a first resort. <br />It would be better for Jahmaicans to not join devils to eventually fall into the abyss of evil. <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #18 - Sep 23rd, 2006, 8:11pm <br />Agenji, the methodology of opinion polling is much more sophistocated than your analysis, I think Mr. X would agree if I read his reasoning right. <br /> <br />You use the term "intelligent guess". My question is intelligent guess of what. Three sides to every story 1) your 2) mine 3) the truth. Which version is the intelligent gues you are referring to? Poll conclusions are relative if samples are not baselined and methodologies standardised. <br /> <br />We do agree though on your propanganda argument. Lastly I think you are underestimating the intellect of the Jamaican public. It a simple matter of exposing them to polling mechanics, and they will figure it out. Thats why Mr. X is here and this is not the first time he has been to this rodeo. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #19 - Sep 24th, 2006, 4:45am <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 23rd, 2006, 8:11pm:<br />Agenji, the methodology of opinion polling is much more sophistocated than your analysis, I think Mr. X would agree if I read his reasoning right. <br /><br />You use the term "intelligent guess". My question is intelligent guess of what. Three sides to every story 1) your 2) mine 3) the truth. Which version is the intelligent gues you are referring to? Poll conclusions are relative if samples are not baselined and methodologies standardised. <br /><br />We do agree though on your propanganda argument. Lastly I think you are underestimating the intellect of the Jamaican public. It a simple matter of exposing them to polling mechanics, and they will figure it out. Thats why Mr. X is here and this is not the first time he has been to this rodeo. <br /><br />First you would claim that "the methodology of opinion polling is much more sophisticated". <br /> <br />Then you go on to suggest that Ajengi "underestimates the intellect of Jahmaica public". <br /> <br />Have you not notice the amount of hand wringing at the last set of exam results of our students? <br />And good many of these students are more intelligent than their parents who are being seduced into paying attention to the opinion poll propaganda. <br /> <br />What we both wished the intellect of Jahmaican public to be and where it is relative to the 'sophistication of opinion polls' are a chasm apart. <br /> <br />Opinion polling is at best an intelligent guess because polling is essentially about trying to predict the future. <br />And there is no intellectual means to actually determine the future. So what we are left with is a 'guesstimate'. <br /> <br />As every investor (who needs to know about the future than most people) is warned, "Past performances are no guarantee of future outcome." <br /> <br />Without a keen intuition to know the future, the best we can do is an intelligent guess about future outcome. That is what a 'good' opinion poll is going to do, guess! <br /> <br />Those who don't realize this of their polling (that they are guessing the future) are either like spiders who are caught up in their own web, or are propagandists desperate to delude others with their intelligent rumor, or both. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #20 - Sep 24th, 2006, 7:28am <br />Ajengi <br /> <br />First you would claim that "the methodology of opinion polling is much more sophisticated". <br /> <br />Have you not notice the amount of hand wringing at the last set of exam results of our students? <br />And good many of these students are more intelligent than their parents who are being seduced into paying attention to the opinion poll propaganda. <br /> <br />What we both wished the intellect of Jahmaican public to be and where it is relative to the 'sophistication of opinion polls' are a chasm apart. <br /> <br />Opinion polling is at best an intelligent guess because polling is essentially about trying to predict the future. <br />And there is no intellectual means to actually determine the future. So what we are left with is a 'guesstimate'. <br /> <br />__________________ <br /> <br />Aj, its not about intelligent guessing per se. Its about deductive reasoning, validity and reliability. Not about predicting the future but creating the future. Far more sophistocated levels than a simple guesstimation analysis. <br /> <br />On a more pointed note from your reasoning looks like you should really summons your emergency team because with the mix of your assessment of the lack of intelligence of the Jamaican electorate and the competency of the Stone team 'your dog' may be on the verge of getting a dog gone whipping. <br /> <br />Your intuition wishes that your assessment is flawed based on your reasoning because then your greatest fear would materialize=regime change. <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #21 - Sep 24th, 2006, 10:27am <br />Ajengi, the Stone strategy is not primarily focused on guessing, its about providing enough propaganda strategy through polling to induce a certain response or non response from the electorate to occilate in concert with the overall opposition election strategy. From my own opinion I dont think it will be enough to offset the government own strategy and the chrasima and gender of the PM-Simpson, however it will make the race very interesting and precarious. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />"The media, opinion polls, and the election <br />Published: February 24, 2000 <br />By David W.F. Huang <br />Special to the TAIWAN HEADLINES <br /> <br />With the approach of the presidential election, Taiwan's media have been hotly competing to put out campaign-related news. At the same time, the results of public opinion polls have been released with dramatically increasing frequency. <br /> <br />What roles are the media and polls playing in the 2000 presidential elections? What influence do they really have? Are they beneficial to the development of democratic politics in Taiwan? <br /> <br />Although intellectual authority has been abused by a small minority, more outrageous still is the use of various survey statistics to mislead voters. Originally, public opinion polls were a scientific method used by positivists who employed rigorous questionnaire design, random sampling and appropriate statistical methodology to determine the opinions of the populace. But in terms of practical implementation, all the aforementioned aspects may have a degree of bias in Taiwan. <br /> <br />Even more vexing is that people who refuse to be interviewed tend to be those that are either relatively conservative, or are in the habit of answering "no opinion." If the scope of sampling is expanded, the ratio of those with "no opinion" or "socially expected answers" (e.g., "I expect Lien Chan to win") will increase in overall survey results. We can conclude that the methods of sampling and distribution greatly influence survey results. <br /> <br />Secondly, the design of a questionnaire can serve to induce certain answers. For example, if the beginning of the questionnaire contains a series of questions focusing primarily on a specific candidate, when the questionnaire later asks which candidate the voter supports, respondents will find it difficult not to say they support the candidate that has been "leading the charge the whole way." <br /> <br />Even if public opinion polls are meticulous in their procedures and random sampling, and strive to design their questionnaires to achieve the highest efficacy level and confidence level, academic experts seem prone to read too much into the statistical figures of survey results. <br /> <br />Few people pay attention to the actual margin of error. Consequently, many experts who research elections cannot help but develop a superstitious faith in "scientific precision," and infer far too much political significance from figures. <br /> <br />For example, one scholar in the past noted that a certain candidate's level of support had risen by 1.7% from one week to the next, and interpreted this to mean that the candidate had lured about 200,000 more voters into his camp. But if we consider that as a rule surveys only have a 95% confidence level and a 3% margin of error, it would be impossible to know whether that candidate's support had risen or fallen among eligible voters. Much less could we conclude the political significance of any increase in support. <br /> <br />Poll figures possess a persuasive scientific feel, yet errors generally occur in the process of executing the survey and interpreting the results. It is no wonder that in December 1999, Chen Shui-bian's camp alleged that their opponents had plotted to buy survey results, to create an election atmosphere in their favor. <br /> <br />Although the scholars and the polling organization in question have denied the allegations, the incident has led some people to label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon effect" (this refers to the Taiwanese expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side," i.e., people tend to jump on the bandwagon). <br /> <br />But in terms of quality of information, Taiwan's media and polling professionals still have a long way to go. In particular, they should make greater efforts to seek out accurate data and correct information, so that politicians do not drag them along by the nose. As it stands, it is very unlikely that Taiwan's media could achieve what American reporters did in the Watergate case. <br /> <br />Because the media broadcast all manner of rumors, most voters, who are limited in their time and their capacity to judge, half trust and half mistrust media reports. <br /> <br />In particular, when the people bestow high expectations on the mechanisms of democracy, but discover that in practice all politicians - regardless of their partisan affiliation - say one thing but do another, it is very likely that only politicians with personal charisma will have a chance to win. This is the lurking danger that must be guarded against in Taiwan's democratic political development" <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />I find the above to be consistent with both your estimate angle and Mr. X's overall reasoning of unscientific polls and political manipulation. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #22 - Sep 24th, 2006, 3:36pm <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 24th, 2006, 10:27am:<br />Ajengi, the Stone strategy is not primarily focused on guessing, its about providing enough propaganda strategy through polling to induce a certain response or non response from the electorate to occilate in concert with the overall opposition election strategy. From my own opinion I dont think it will be enough to offset the government own strategy and the chrasima and gender of the PM-Simpson, however it will make the race very interesting and precarious. <br /><br />See, that's what I was afraid that you guys were hinting at: Stone poll being used on behalf of the opposition/sell outs. <br />The question is why; and who is funding it cold Stone? <br /> <br />And you are right; polls alone isn't going to do too much of a damage. <br />The problem is that the JLP is allied with the kind of forces that are willing to go beyond mere polling propaganda to achieve their 'regime change'. <br />And that is why it would be good to shed more light on the cold Stone propagandists. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #23 - Sep 24th, 2006, 4:07pm <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 24th, 2006, 7:28am:<br />Aj, its not about intelligent guessing per se. Its about deductive reasoning, validity and reliability. Not about predicting the future but creating the future. Far more sophistocated levels than a simple guesstimation analysis. <br /><br />I like the part about 'creating the future'; because that is exactly the aim of too many polling propagandists. <br />That is why I don't not trust pollsters: They usually have their own axes to grind. <br /> <br />Now, we can use all of the 'deductive reasoning' we like; but if we are dealing with polling variables (subjective opinions) that are neither reliable nor quantifiable, then any polling conclusion cannot be scientific. And what is not science is art, or pseudo science at best. <br /> <br />Pollsters can only use the phrase 'scientific polling' to seem important or feign credibility. <br />As we must know, the scientific method cannot be applied to every kind of event. <br />When the variables are 'known' only to one person and cannot be quantified by available means of measurements, then we are not going to have a science. <br /> <br />Just calling an activity scientific does not make it so. There are rigorous criteria to be met before we have science. <br />Quote:<br />On a more pointed note from your reasoning looks like you should really summons your emergency team because with the mix of your a**essment of the lack of intelligence of the Jamaican electorate and the competency of the Stone team 'your dog' may be on the verge of getting a dog gone whipping. <br /><br />Come on. I only refer to the 'lack of adequate Jahmaican intelligence' with reference only to intricacies of polling, and how it is can be used (and probably is being used) by the intelligentsia as propaganda tools to spread rumors for particular ends. <br /> <br />In choosing leaders, we not only rely on the intellect (those who have any); we also use the heart -- everybody has one of those. <br />So in the end, I'm expecting that Jahmaicans are going to do the right thing again, and chose the lesser among evils. <br /> <br />Many Jahmaicans have their heart in the right place. That is why their present leader reflect the Jahmaican collective so well. <br /> <br />It's just that it is disquieting to know that the vultures are constantly circling and so many Jahmaicans are not seeing them for what they really are -- no good for Jahmaicans either in the short run or in the long run. <br /> <br />We had a 'regime change' in Haiti and Venezuela; and very few people even recognize them as be so, because of media manipulation and propaganda. <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #24 - Sep 25th, 2006, 6:34am <br />Quote from Ajengi on Sep 24th, 2006, 4:07pm:<br /><br />Come on. I only refer to the 'lack of adequate Jahmaican intelligence' with reference only to intricacies of polling, and how it is can be used (and probably is being used) by the intelligentsia as propaganda tools to spread rumors for particular ends. <br /><br /> <br /> <br />Based on your statements it appears that you need to get on the horn and start spreading the word that Mr. X is teaching "Stone unscientific polling nuances 101" in Jamaica Gleaner Go Local section. <br /> <br />With your concerns Mr. X must be very timely, you think? <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #25 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:22pm <br /><br />Current Affairs Bulletin, 1975, 52, 24-30. <br /> <br />PUBLIC OPINION POLLS AND ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT: Social science or a form of journalism? <br /> <br /> <br />By John Ray <br />Psephology - or in lay terms public opinion polling - has been described as failing between social science and journalism. <br /> <br />Of course it is argued, and rightly, that polls serve to indicate public opinion at the time of their being taken. How accurate are they in terms of prediction? In this area there have been notable instances of error: for examples - on the outcome of the Whitlam government's price and wage control referendum; in America of the Truman defeat of Dewey; and in Great Britain the 1970 defeat of Wilson by Heath when Labour supporters were lulled by the polls into such a sense of victory that large numbers stayed away from the polling booths. <br /> <br />One of the disconcerting aspects of the public opinion polls is that very few people appear to know very much about the methods employed in polling, about the techniques of sampling, and the numbers of views canvassed. How serious is sampling error and are question-framing and interviewer bias important? <br /> <br />Methods of questioning <br /> <br />Finding out what people really think is a problem as old as the human race. Social scientists have not solved it. In their years of working on it, however, they have come up with some ways of going about the task that offer some improvement on the simple formula: "Just ask people". <br /> <br />In asking people directly about their attitudes, however, there are still two major alternative ways of going about. it: the closed-ended and the open-ended methods. In the open-ended method we simply ask a person (for example): "What do you think about Aborigines?" and take down whatever he says. In the closed-ended method we ask: "Do you think Aborigines are in general hard workers?" and the person is given the option only of replying "Yes", "No" or "Not sure". <br /> <br />Con't..... <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #26 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:23pm <br />Open or closed? <br /> <br />Opinion research organisations use both closed- and open-ended methods. The closed-ended is the method most used for political polls and the like, whereas the open-ended method tends to be used in some market-research applications. The closed-ended method is sometimes criticised as imposing an artificial choice upon the respondent, while the open-ended method enables people to put things in their own words. The catch, however, is that once you enable people to put things in their own words, you have no objective or immediately quantifiable way of comparing people. In many cases you cannot even set up such simple categories as "percentage for" and "percentage against". To overcome this, open-ended surveys are almost always followed by a stage of "coding" the answers given - i.e., putting them into categories. This involves a lot of work and contains an inevitable element of arbitrariness. For this reason many researchers feel that it is better to give the respondents themselves the categories to start with and let them make their own choice between them. <br /> <br />It follows then that the best procedure in opinion measurement is an initial pilot survey of the open-ended type to decide the response categories to be used, followed by the major survey in closed-ended format. This comes near to getting the best of all possible worlds, in that the categories of opinion people are given to choose between are not artificial constructions but rather the type of words that people have been shown empirically to use most. At the same time the results are completely objective and beyond dispute - to the point where they can even be machine-scored. <br /> <br />Public opinion polls, however, often fail to carry out this full procedure. In so many surveys the statements given to people to respond to are composed not by the people themselves but by self-styled "experts" in a field where expertise is very much a matter of opinion. This is not, of course, true of routine political surveys where the questions to be asked are well-tried and the product of long sifting. <br /> <br />Balance against direction of wording <br /> <br />All questionnaire research seems to be plagued by the "acquiescence" problem. This is the tendency of people when answering survey questions to reply "yes" without really considering the questions at all. The phenomenon arises for a number of reasons. The most common is probably indifference. People reply "yes" believing that to be the easiest way to get rid of the interviewer. Another reason is that the question may be in some way obscure or complex and, rather than think it out, the person again simply says "yes" as the earliest answer. <br /> <br />There is, of course, no way in which we can force people to stop being indifferent. One thing we can do, however, is ensure that the effect of indifference is evenly spread over all possible answers, so that one answer does not have the numbers choosing it artificially inflated at the expense of the others. <br /> <br />The way we do this is by the technique of "split plots". We divide our sample of people into two halves. To one half we give a negative form of the question and to the other half we give a positive form. <br /> <br />Pollsters do not of course ignore this problem altogether. Questions are often worded to require a more substantive answer than either "yes" or "no" - for instance by giving a list of options (such as political parties) from which to choose. This however may simply make the problem more intractable. One exchanges the acquiescence problem for the "donkey vote" problem - i.e., people simply number their preferences straight down the page as 1, 2, 3, 4. The proper "split plots" control technique is seen as too laborious and is seldom used. Other available control techniques, such as "balancing", are usable only on multi-item "scales" - which, as we have seen, polls seldom use. <br /> <br />Con't..... <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #27 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:24pm <br />Reliability and validity <br /> <br />Psychometricians use the words "reliability" and "validity" in a technical sense to refer to two indispensable characteristics that any form of attitude measurement must have if it is to be regarded as accurate: it must be repeatable and still give the same answer (reliability) and the answer given must be one that does in fact reflect what it purports to reflect (validity). There are standard procedures for ascertaining both of these but one could be forgiven the impression that all these procedures are totally unknown to most pollsters. <br /> <br />The simple test for reliability is to give a question or scale to a group of people twice and see how highly the answers on the two occasions correlate. As a short-cut, however, one can (only where scales are used) use the "split-half" procedure mentioned earlier. Use the correlation between any two halves of the scale to estimate the correlation between two occasions of administering the whole scale. Many scales and many single questions prove not to be reliable when a test is done and there generally in fact needs to be considerable trial and error item selection before reliable measurement can be achieved. When pollsters omit such considerations, therefore, they seriously reduce the value of their results. <br /> <br />Validity is a much more involved question. When we examine the validity of a conservatism index or scale, for instance, we ask ourselves: "Do the people who give the conservative answer on these questions actually act in the conservative way?" As has often been shown, attitude indexes very often do not predict behaviour. Perhaps the most generally satisfactory way of assessing such a correlation is to get independent ratings of each person's behaviour from others who know him and see whether what others say about him and what he says about himself actually do go together. Some sets of questions do produce a high correlation in such circumstances while others do not. Pollsters often seem to assume a high correlation without any prior proof whatsoever. <br /> <br /> <br />Another factor that should be looked for in sample surveys is some statement about how likely it is that the result given will actually represent what the population as a whole would say. The results obtained from a sample do differ in variable ways from the results one would find by surveying the population as a whole. In a properly drawn sample, however, these variations are both small and their likely magnitude something that can be estimated. This estimate (or "standard error") is a simple and routine computation carried out by almost any computer program that polling organisations use to process their results. Practically never however does this statistic find its way into press reports of polling results. It is therefore of some importance not to take seriously reports that two groups (of, say, voters) show small differences in their preferences for various things. A very small difference may in fact lie within the range of variation that the "standard error" would tell us could occur by chance sampling variations alone. When there is doubt about whether this explanation for any difference should be entertained, there is no alternative but to seek from the polling organisation directly fuller details than they release to the press. Unless one is either lucky or persuasive, this can cost money. Until their results have become outdated, polling organisations must - in order to support themselves - charge for what information they provide. <br /> <br />Con't.... <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #28 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:26pm <br />Polling error <br /> <br />There have been some notable errors in poll predictions. The worst one so far by Australian polls was the prediction of the outcome of the Whitlam government's price and wage control referendum. From the polls that were published (particularly McNair's "Gallup" poll), no one expected the price control proposal to be defeated. It seems that what went wrong on that occasion was a last-minute mood of caution on the part of voters when actually confronted with the voting decision. They were not sure enough that they understood all the complicated arguments and divisions of opinion surrounding referendum proposals to give the government the go-ahead it sought. Last-minute changes of mood in the voters are of course something that no poll can allow for. The best one can ask is that they do truly report opinion that is consistently held. <br /> <br />A more important sort of polling error is the so-called "seldep" (self-defeating prophecy) and "selfup" (self-fulfilling prophecy). The most notable example of a "seldep" was probably the unexpected triumph of Mr Edward Heath in the 1970 British elections. What appears to have happened on that occasion was that the widespread predictions of Mr Heath's defeat led far too many Labour voters to stay at home and not bother to vote - confident that their man was in. Unlike Australia, Britain does not have compulsory voting. The Heath episode, then, leads to the ironical conclusion that polls will predict best when people have no confidence in them. This is at least a self-correcting system - melancholy a prospect though it may be to the pollster himself. <br /> <br /> <br />A final, rather paradoxical, point about polling error is that a poll can be accurate even when it appears to fail to predict the right winner. To the general public, a poll that picks the right political party to win an election but gets the margin of victory quite wrong is good enough. Logically, however, such results indicate good luck more than scientifically accurate polling. A more commendable achievement is to get the percentage vote very close to the actual one, even if the slight margin of error does lead to picking the wrong candidate in a close contest. Nowadays polls, almost always do this. Whether they pick the right winner or not, their margin of error is normally very small. This is a strong indication of the adequacy of their sampling methods. <br /> <br />Finally, it seems appropriate to revert now to the question raised at the beginning of this article: what is the role of polls in creating opinions? As well as influencing voter turnout do they also influence opinion? It would certainly seem that they do influence politicians' opinions. <br /> <br />The influence of polling on public opinion as such however is much more contentious. There is a possible "bandwagon" effect of people wanting to be on what they are told is the winning side and there is also the possibility of an opposite "underdog" effect of people wanting to give support to someone whom they feel sorry for because he is said to have little chance of winning. <br /> <br />A more serious charge against polls as serving a political cause is that the pollster can word his questions in such a way as to produce a particular desired result. Does this mean that polls are "meaningless"? Not necessarily, but it does serve as a warning against reliance on one question only, or questions that are worded in one direction only. " <br /> <br />Con't.....Conclusion <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #29 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:27pm <br />Conclusion <br /> <br />To sum up, polls are in general no better than their market demands. This means a generally fairly low standard except so far as the sampling itself is concerned. More use of "lie" scales, less arbitrary judgment about the wording of questions, less reliance on single questions, balance against acquiescence, proof of reliability and validity and fuller descriptive statistics are all areas in considerable need of improvement. Greater sophistication in the academic discipline known as "psychometrics" Would appear to be what most pollsters need. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #30 - Sep 26th, 2006, 11:36pm <br />Ultimately election polling in Jamaica is essentially a high stakes 3 card game. The most important elements are: Who is paying, perceived benefits and alliances. Its not about science, or validity and reliability of the opinion of the Jamaican electorate. If this was so, then there would be other competing important events in the general society that could use opinion polling to influence public policy and improve the overall quality of the peoples livity. <br /> <br />The polling game itself will contour interesting back and forth in the general relative arena and make for interesting conversations. However, behind the strategies, methodologies and tactics are deadly serious games of: inducing self fulfilling prophecies in the form of the Stone-rope-a-dope, i.e. water melon effect/bangwaggonism to enhance the chances of special interest, in essence, PR. <br /> <br />This type of gaming is glaringly different from genuine "scientific inquiry" and should not be confused as such. <br /> <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #31 - Sep 27th, 2006, 12:39am <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 26th, 2006, 10:22pm:<br />One of the disconcerting aspects of the public opinion polls is that very few people appear to know very much about the methods employed in polling, about the techniques of sampling, and the numbers of views canva**ed. How serious is sampling error and are question-framing and interviewer bias important? <br /><br />Exactly my point vis-à-vis the relative undereducation of average Jahmaican voters and these propaganda polls of the intelligentsia rumormongers and political propagandists. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #32 - Sep 27th, 2006, 6:17am <br />Aj, Jamaica is no different from any other country generally when it comes to the mechanics of polling. The lack of knowledge statistically is consistent proportionally relative to population size across borders. And, a significant amount of those that possess some familarity with the topic lack the real technical understanding and end up in the same boat. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #33 - Sep 27th, 2006, 8:12am <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 27th, 2006, 6:17am:<br />Aj, Jamaica is no different from any other country generally when it comes to the mechanics of polling. The lack of knowledge statistically is consistent proportionally relative to population size across borders. And, a significant amount of those that possess some familarity with the topic lack the real technical understanding and end up in the same boat. <br /><br />I think that it is common sense that the impact of the use of polling as a propaganda tool is going to depend on the relative level of education/literacy within the populations, yes? <br /> <br />The more educationally sophisticated the population, the more likely it is that the voters are either going to understand polling mechanics and not be fooled by propaganda; or, voters recognizing that because they lack the necessary intellectual skills for polling, then the more likely they are of becoming victims of polling propagandists and their intellectual rumor mongering. <br />Therefore the more educated the population, the more likely it is going to be able to see political polling for what it really is, mainly a propaganda ploy. <br /> <br />Don‘t get me wrong. I do recognize that there will be some researchers, without an axe to grind, who will try to be as objective as they possible can in their efforts to make their polling jive with reality. <br /> <br />However, when it comes to the quest for political power/wealth in this yuga, greed rather than objectivity is a monster that will most likely raise its ugly head. <br />We should want to cut that head for the greater good. <br />Back to top <br /> <br />« Last Edit: Sep 28th, 2006, 7:23pm by Neo_Anderson » <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #34 - Sep 27th, 2006, 8:18pm <br />Quote from Ajengi on Sep 27th, 2006, 8:12am:<br /><br />I think that it is common sense that the impact of the use of polling as a propaganda tool is going to depend on the relative level of education/literacy within the populations, yes? <br /><br />The more educationally sophisticated the population, the more likely it is that the voters are either going to understand polling mechanics and not be fooled by propaganda; or, voters recognizing that because they lack the necessary intellectual skills for polling, then the more likely they are of becoming victims of polling propagandists and their intellectual rumor mongering. <br />Therefore the more educated the population, the more likely it is going to be able to see political polling for what it really is, mainly a propaganda ploy. <br />b] <br /><br /> <br />I dont necessarily agree with your statement (I see you choose your words carefully). I dont see a direct linear relationship that lends itself to such a broad general statement. If you have empirical validation then provide citation. <br /> <br />Most elder 'Farmer George' may not know how to read or write but do understand the logics of plant genetics, chemistry, numbers, economic, environmental science etc. etc. There is more to understanding than just reading, writing and CXC. <br /> <br />The minds of such individuals are more than capable of understanding the opinion polling game and propaganda. Your theory maybe common sense but its not supported by scalable measurements. <br /> <br />The inverse may also be valid, consequently confounding your theory even more. See link #1. <br /> <br />http://www.willamette.edu/cla/math/articles/marilyn.htm <br /> <br />The ultimate difference to me is not education level perse, but how well folks in the know that possess access to media and public outlets present a balancing of information regarding opinion polling fallacy. You never know how information germinates, the key is planting the seed and if a person does not possess some level of mental retardation and is relatively 'socialized' within their culture, then they possess the necessary prerequisites of understanding polling fallacy. <br /> <br /> <br />----------------------- <br /> <br /> <br />All you need to know about opinion polling: See kink below <br /> <br />http://whyfiles.org/009poll/index.html <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #35 - Sep 27th, 2006, 9:53pm <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 27th, 2006, 8:18pm:<br />The ultimate difference to me is not education level perse, but how well folks in the know that possess access to media and public outlets present a balancing of information regarding opinion polling fallacy. You never know how information germinates, the key is planting the seed and if a person does not possess some level of mental retardation and is relatively 'socialized' within their culture, then they possess the necessary prerequisites of understanding polling fallacy. <br /><br />If that is how you think, then you are helping to make my point by default; because it is bordering on naivety to expect 'balancing of information' via the media. <br /> <br />While it would be nice if the media were an educational source to effect the end you imagine, the reality is something else. <br />The media are business enterprises whose primary goal is to make a profit. And they are willing to sell propaganda from themselves or from 'advertisers' if that is what the media think the populace will buy at a particular point in time. <br /> <br />And you keep mentioning the mental skills of your "Farmer George". His mental capacity is no doubt fine and dandy; and I am not about to question it. <br />However, it is going to take effective education to structure rigorously the thinking of "Farmer George" so as to make his mind capable of handling subjects of some intellectual sophistication as opinion polling is. <br /> <br />If that weren't the case, then what would be the use of years of deliberate and structured mental practices during formal schooling, if not to enable the ‘farmer Georges’ of Jahmaica to maximize whatever mental potential they may bring to the table to begin with? <br /> <br />One can consider your "Farmer Georges'" mental abilities as one would a 'diamonds in the rough': There would be so much more value to those abilities in appreciating the media tricksters, if only they were polished with effective educational practices. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #36 - Sep 27th, 2006, 11:42pm <br />Quote from Ajengi on Sep 27th, 2006, 9:53pm:<br /><br />If that is how you think, then you are helping to make my point by default; because it is bordering on naivety to expect 'balancing of information' via the media. <br /><br />While it would be nice if the media were an educational source to effect the end you imagine, the reality is something else. <br /><br /><br />And you keep mentioning the mental skills of your "Farmer George". His mental capacity is no doubt fine and dandy; and I am not about to question it. <br />However, it is going to take effective education to structure rigorously the thinking of "Farmer George" so as to make his mind capable of handling subjects of some intellectual sophistication as opinion polling is. <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />Aj, your intepretations are too narrow e.g. the word media. Where we are here is media, and my reasonings are not being censored. With the internet and a proliferation of interactive web sites, chat rooms, talk back forums etc. we have new media outlets that presents a whole new reality and potential. Yes the avenue is there to provide balance, if one & one could only see it. <br /> <br /> <br />Your statements on Farmer George is a diss. First and foremost the basic elements of Opinion Polling is not intellectually sophistocated, again it is not science. If you can understand the 3 card samfye then you can understand the basic elements of Opinion Polling, its that simple. If you cannot conceptualize that then you are buying into the same hype that you are running from, and completely missing the point. Maybe too much 'middle class' structured book learning without a pragmatic balance? <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #37 - Sep 28th, 2006, 11:41am <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 27th, 2006, 11:42pm:<br /><br />Aj, your intepretations are too narrow e.g. the word media. Where we are here is media, and my reasonings are not being censored. With the internet and a proliferation of interactive web sites, chat rooms, talk back forums etc. we have new media outlets that presents a whole new reality and potential. Yes the avenue is there to provide balance, if one & one could only see it. <br /><br />Take it easy there, Malcolm Xx. <br /> <br />Usually when people say 'media' in the context you presented it, they usually mean 'mas.s media'. <br /> <br />There were other additional/low-tech means of disseminating information (word-a-mouth, say) that existed along with 'mas.s media'; but we didn't consider these additional means 'the media'. <br /> <br />Now if you want to include additional means of information dissemination as 'media' because they are now hi-tech, then you just have to let me know; because these new additions still do not blanket the 'information space' the way that traditional mas.s media continue to do. <br /> <br />Quote:<br />Your statements on Farmer George is a diss. First and foremost the basic elements of Opinion Polling is not intellectually sophistocated, again it is not science. If you can understand the 3 card samfye then you can understand the basic elements of Opinion Polling, its that simple. If you cannot conceptualize that then you are buying into the same hype that you are running from, and completely missing the point. Maybe too much 'middle class' structured book learning without a pragmatic balance? <br /><br />You know I never understand your '3 card samfye'? <br />There we just somethings I never bother to learn. Did I miss much? <br /> <br />Anyway, there was never any intention to diss your 'farmer george'. After all, without him we'd starve, right? <br /> <br />Only, we wanted to leave no doubt about the importance of the 'farmer georges' of Jahmaica (and those who may emulate them if they are placed on a semi-false pedestal) that maximizing whatever mental talent they have to begin with is of vital importance. <br /> <br />Culturing the mind in a deliberate and structured way within an organized and effective educatinal environment will make farmer george's mental potential yield a lot more output than if it were just allowed to grow 'wild' like his weeds. <br /> <br />Because opinion polling is not a science, it means that it is going to be more challenging to the untrained mind. <br />And because it is touted by intellectuals, it is very likely that 'farmer george' will suffer from a complex and be inclined to believe that he would be in way over his head should he try to deal with the actual mental gymnastics of polling that is promoted by intellectuals. <br /> <br />All the intellectuals would have to do to your 'farmer george' (should he have any objections to the polling) is to tell him that he is in way over his head intellectually. That would effectively shut down farmer george along with his unproved objections. <br /> <br />You see, Mr Xx, I'm of two minds with the polling. <br /> <br />Even though I realize that opinion polls can and are used wittingly/unwittingly as political propaganda tools, I also recognize that polling can have practical value if it is approached as objectively as possible by researchers with no axe to grind. <br /> <br />So while 'farmer george' can be made alert to the propaganda value of opinion polls, without formal training of the mind to understand how pollsters are able to dupe him, farmer george is not going to be able to satisfying himself as to how and when he's being tricked by pollsters, that is if he is tricked at all. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #38 - Sep 28th, 2006, 7:13pm <br />Ajengi, to ease your fumbling pain of trying to explain away Mr X's correction of your faux pas here is the definition of media: <br /> <br />Media <br />1. Plural of medium. <br /> <br />2. Channels of communication that serve many diverse functions, such as offering a variety of entertainment with either mass or specialized appeal, communicating news and information, or displaying advertising messages. <br /> <br />I concur with two points regarding your post: narrow and middle class rebel. But its all good. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #39 - Sep 28th, 2006, 7:16pm <br /><br />U.S. military seeks to deploy new weapon: polls, PR <br /> <br />By Walter Pincus <br />The Washington Post <br />Posted September 28 2006 <br /> <br />WASHINGTON • As violence continues in Iraq, the military is looking for additional ways to fight, using opinion polls and public relations. <br />The Multi-National Command in Baghdad wants to hire a private firm to conduct polling and focus groups in Iraq "to assess the effectiveness of operations as they relate to gaining and maintaining popular support," according to a notice the Department of the Army posted Wednesday. <br /> <br /> <br />"Since the end of major combat operations in Operation Iraqi Freedom, Coalition Forces have sought to build robust and positive relations with the people of Iraq and to assist the Iraqi people in forming a new government," the notice says, posted on the government contracting Web site FBODaily.com. <br /> <br />Polling and focus groups are being sought as "important tools for assessing changes in the level of a population's support for various groups," according to the posting. <br /> <br />Polling in Iraq is so sensitive that the contract proposal states that the winning firm must ensure that those being questioned "are not aware of the survey sponsor's identity." One member of a firm that has conducted polling for the Baghdad command said Wednesday that "if someone out there believes the client is the U.S. government, the persons doing the polling could get killed." The official insisted on anonymity for fear of putting his company's employees at risk. <br /> <br />Word of the proposed new contract comes a day after release of a State Department poll that found that majorities in all regions of Iraq, except the Kurdish areas, want U.S. and allied troops to withdraw immediately and that their departure would make people feel safer. It also follows release of an April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism that found that U.S. military action has become a "cause celebre" in the Arab world and has fueled anti-American feelings in Iraq and the Middle East. <br /> <br />Also Wednesday: The Baghdad command confirmed that it has awarded a two-year, $12.4 million contact to handle strategic communications management to the Lincoln Group, the same Washington-based public relations company that was found late last year to have been paying money to place favorable articles in the Iraqi media. <br /> <br />William Dixon, a spokesman for Lincoln, said Wednesday he could not comment on the details of particular contracts and deferred to the Baghdad command for any statement. <br /> <br />Lincoln was the lowest of seven bidders on what was viewed as a $20 million contract to aid the military commanders in Baghdad in getting what they considered the positive side of their operations in the media, according to one of the bidders who was briefed on the contract. The contract calls for providing media strategy such as setting up news conferences and public speeches, media training to military commanders as well as Iraqi government officials, and monitoring of Middle East and some U.S. media including The Washington Post, The New York Times and major networks. The monitoring would also include creating a database of stories graded as favorable or unfavorable. <br /> <br />Lincoln's practices have attracted controversy, most recently because of a story in the current issue of Harper's Magazine. In it, Willem Marx, an Oxford University student, described working for Lincoln in Baghdad last summer and using a spreadsheet listing amounts charged by Iraqi newspapers to run stories written by Army personnel, at costs that ran from $50 to $1,500. <br /> <br />At least one of the bidders who lost out to Lincoln is considering a challenge to the award based on Lincoln's past record. <br /> <br />Lincoln's spokesman dismissed the article's claims. "The former intern's exaggerated and misleading account does not accurately depict the firm's activities in the emerging markets and challenging environments," Dixon said. <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #40 - Sep 28th, 2006, 7:27pm <br />Quote from Ajengi on Sep 28th, 2006, 11:41am:<br /><br /><br />You know I never understand your '3 card samfye'? <br />There we just somethings I never bother to learn. Did I miss much? <br /><br /> <br /> <br />You better find a Farmer George and ask him, you may learn a thing or two. <br /> <br />How would you classify that one within your echelons of educational/intellectual continuum. Farmer George, an unsophistocated unlearnt individual teaching a man of your levels intellectually? Interesting is'nt it. I think thats a classic example of what Mr. X is trying to point out to you. Are you picking up?? <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Neo_Anderson<br />Go-Local Moderator<br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br />Posts: 8438<br />Gender: Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #41 - Sep 28th, 2006, 7:35pm <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 28th, 2006, 7:13pm:<br />Ajengi, to ease your fumbling pain of trying to explain away Mr X's correction of your faux pas here is the definition of media: <br /><br />Media <br />1. Plural of medium. <br /><br />2. Channels of communication that serve many diverse functions, such as offering a variety of entertainment with either mass or specialized appeal, communicating news and information, or displaying advertising messages. <br /><br />I'm not very familiar with Stone Poll-ology. From reading your comments I have a question. <br /> <br />Is polling a function of a media house? <br /> <br />X - yu said this (Go Local) is media ... as per the above defintion it is, but it doesnt account for "reach" <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br />________________________________________<br /> <br /> IP Logged <br /><br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #42 - Sep 29th, 2006, 7:01am <br />Quote from Bwoy1der on Sep 28th, 2006, 7:35pm:<br /><br />I'm not very familiar with Stone Poll-ology. From reading your comments I have a question. <br /><br />Is polling a function of a media house? <br /><br />X - yu said this (Go Local) is media ... as per the above defintion it is, but it doesnt account for "reach" <br /><br /> <br /> <br />Bwoywonder, polling in some respects have evolved into a media house function, it appears to be a match made in Journalism heaven. However, it is still used extensively in academic circle also; but intent, design and ethics may vary. <br /> <br />I agree with you on the madia reach comment, however my reasoning was based on 'media' not media reach or mass media. <br /> <br />Aj, no not Malcolm. "Xx" denotes scientific symbolism. I understand your 'pun' though, but I thought I should clear that up. <br /> <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br />« Last Edit: Sep 29th, 2006, 5:59pm by Xx » <br /> IP Logged <br />Neo_Anderson<br />Go-Local Moderator<br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br />Posts: 8438<br />Gender: Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #43 - Sep 29th, 2006, 8:31am <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 29th, 2006, 7:01am:<br /><br /><br /><br />Bwoywonder, polling in some respects have evolved into a media house function, it appears to be a match made in Journalism heaven. However, it is still used extensively in academic circle also; but intent, design and ethics may vary. <br /><br />I agree with you on the madia reach comment, however my reasoning was based on 'media' not media reach or mass media. <br /><br />Aj, no not Malcolm. "Xx" denotes scientific symbolism. I understand your 'pun' though, but I thought I should clear that up. <br /><br /><br />Does anyone know what the following access denial syntax means: I hope its routine and not an attempt to censor Xx reasoning because in cyber there are always option relative to public media websites access. <br /><br />Usage: {path}/adloger.php?adid={adid} <br />eg: htp://ww.jamaica-gleaner.com/tools/adlogger.php?adid=236 <br /><br /> <br /> the only people capable are Sirr, myself and a hacker.. ....wasnt me, doubt it was Sirr........or a hacker. .. <br /> <br />...and since you posted it, essentially turning it into a link, I'm disabling it ... 8) <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br />________________________________________<br /> <br /> IP Logged <br /><br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #44 - Sep 29th, 2006, 9:01am <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 28th, 2006, 7:13pm:<br />Ajengi, to ease your fumbling pain of trying to explain away Mr X's correction of your faux pas here is the definition of media: <br /><br />Media <br />1. Plural of medium. <br /><br />2. Channels of communication that serve many diverse functions, such as offering a variety of entertainment with either mass or specialized appeal, communicating news and information, or displaying advertising messages. <br /><br />I concur with two points regarding your post: narrow and middle class rebel. But its all good. <br /><br />Better to invest the time in understanding how words derive/take on their meanings due to popular usage than engaging in the infantile act of cutting and pasting 'dictionary' entries. <br />Did you by chance ask permission from Mr Xx before you seek to misrepresent him? <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #45 - Sep 29th, 2006, 9:07am <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 29th, 2006, 7:01am:<br /><br /><br />Bwoywonder, polling in some respects have evolved into a media house function, it appears to be a match made in Journalism heaven. However, it is still used extensively in academic circle also; but intent, design and ethics may vary. <br /><br />nuff said! <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #46 - Sep 29th, 2006, 6:04pm <br />Quote from Bwoy1der on Sep 29th, 2006, 8:31am:<br /><br /><br /> the only people capable are Sirr, myself and a hacker.. ....wasnt me, doubt it was Sirr........or a hacker. .. <br /><br />...and since you posted it, essentially turning it into a link, I'm disabling it ... 8) <br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /> <br />Bwoywonder Respect. <br /> <br />Aj dont watch Supporter he means well and understands the topic at hand on certain levels. But we all have our styles lets keep shining the light. <br /> <br />Aj comment on the Iraq opinion polling article and relate to Stone strategy. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #47 - Sep 29th, 2006, 7:17pm <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 29th, 2006, 6:04pm:<br /><br /><br /><br />Bwoywonder Respect. <br /><br />Aj dont watch Supporter he means well and understands the topic at hand on certain levels. But we all have our styles lets keep shining the light. <br /><br />Aj comment on the Iraq opinion polling article and relate to Stone strategy. <br /><br />It's not an "Iraq opinion polling". <br />It's the invading regime changers' efforts to gather the kinds of information that can be used to 'better' subjugate the population deliver a good dose of propaganda all over the place. <br /> <br />When I first read about US polling in the news, the thing that grabbed my attention most was the commitment of many Iraqi patriots to destroy traitors who would foolishly/insanely go out of their way help the invaders gather their devilish data. <br /> <br />The 'good' parts of the polling will be used 'in house' to give the invaders useful information about just where they stand, and the 'bad' part will be spun into lies for public consumption to paint a rosier picture than the world knows exist. <br /> <br />Now, because I understand fully well how the divisive 'divide and rule' regime changers operate, and because I also realize that there are some among our treasonous and traitorous so-called leaders who are more than eager to lie like shameless hos underneath the regime changers, I'm concerned that they will take their dollars and do propaganda polling on Jahmaicans to influence regime change contrary to what the average Jahmaicans may aspire after. <br /> <br />You may know a lot more than you are letting on about just where the loyalties of the Stone people lie? <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />X_Supporter<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #48 - Oct 1st, 2006, 6:06am <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 28th, 2006, 7:13pm:<br />Ajengi, to ease your fumbling pain of trying to explain away Mr X's correction of your faux pas here is the definition of media: <br /><br />Media <br />1. Plural of medium. <br /><br />2. Channels of communication that serve many diverse functions, such as offering a variety of entertainment with either mass or specialized appeal, communicating news and information, or displaying advertising messages. <br /><br /> <br />If the discussion was focused on word origination then my response would have been angled in that direction. Sorry I mash the man corn. <br /> <br />Bwoy1der, obviously Mr. X is ahead of the curve or have some serious connections. The following article validates his reasoning directly. <br /> <br />***** <br /> <br />A world of new media opening up in Jamaica <br />published: Sunday | October 1, 2006 <br /> <br />Ross Sheil, Staff Reporter <br /> <br />Established media in Jamaica is still playing catch up with overseas companies in developing online content, but a number of young and energetic Jamaicans have been using the platform to develop their own careers ... and are making money. <br /> <br />Internationally large players such as the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and the Washington Post have made significant adjustments to their content to compete in a market where the 'dead tree' product of newspapers, and even television and radio, cannot keep pace with the Internet. <br /> <br />Regularly equipped <br /> <br />For instance, Post reporters are regularly equipped with cameras to record video, stills and audio, while the BBC is increasingly benefiting from so-called 'citizen journalism' - people submitting their own content, typically photographs, often taken with cellular phone cameras; as well as text-messaging their thoughts and ideas. <br /> <br />Local photographer Peter Dean Rickards, 37, started small with his own website, www.afflictedyard.com, providing a relatively uncensored insight into Jamaican culture, but instead of a cellphone camera, he had an even more basic one megapixel digital camera. <br /> <br />This, he said, "accidentally" led to him becoming a professional photographer with the website functioning as an online portfolio attracting clients from here and abroad, ranging from corporate clients to style magazines. <br /> <br />Huge potential <br /> <br />"I think the potential is huge and perhaps over time, these alternative media sources - and I don't just means blogs - will put pressure on the established media to create better products," said Rickards. <br /> <br />"I see it happening already in television but there's plenty of room for growth. If established media houses don't respond to the increased challenges made by independents, it's my opinion that the public will simply begin to overlook them." <br /> <br />Claude Mills, 29, and photographer Carlington Wilmot, 26, who at one time both worked with Jamaica's most established newspaper, The Gleaner, have started www.yardflex.net, a simple online blog with daily entries covering the local entertainment scene. <br /> <br />Within a year, they expanded into newspaper format and after four bi-monthly issues and realising that most of their traffic came from expatriate Jamaican communities in the United States, their fifth issue has now been printed in South Florida, with distribution also in New York, Chicago and Toronto. <br /> <br />"It's not been easy," said Mills, a former reporter. "However, from something small we've developed a following which we're only just beginning to serve and we'll see how much that might grow." <br /> <br />Growth <br /> <br />"All of these are growing at an average rate of 2,000 new members per day," said Frazer. <br /> <br />He now employs two others, and given the massive success of the likes of MySpace and Hi5, Frazer believes he has a solid business model. <br /> <br /> <br />"There are so many niche markets to go after, which is why I have started to launch different sites," said Frazer. <br /> <br />"These people tend to be online for much of the day, either at home or at work, and we are talking about the 24 to 35-year-old demographic that advertisers want." <br /> <br />Jamaica's foremost communication school, the Caribbean Institute for Media and Communication (CARIMAC) at the University of the West Indies, is now fund-raising to expand so it can offer more courses. There are plans to include online distance learning courses and online journalism for those already in the profession..... <br /> <br />According to CARIMAC director, Drs. Marjan deBruin, the media locally are still at a stage of merger rather than convergence, combining different media platforms. But with the level of convergence in the international media, it would be nonsensical she believes, for graduates to leave her department having learned to operate in only one platform. <br /> <br />"The challenge for all of us in the industry, and I am including CARIMAC in this, is that we need to keep up," said deBruin. <br /> <br />"However, there is the issue of resources and of course finding people who have the experience to teach the courses. Furthermore, you have to consider that with technological changes, as with these, it takes young people to bridge the gaps, but this is not the demographic of people who are the decision makers within the newsroom," she said. <br /> <br />The Gleaner, which has over 120 million hits per month, its online arm Go-Jamaica (www.go-jamaica.com) 'Discussion Forum' will launch a new suite of online content today, October 1. <br /> <br /> <br />- ross.sheil@gleanerjm.com <br /> <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #49 - Oct 1st, 2006, 5:41pm <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Oct 1st, 2006, 6:06am:<br />"I think the potential is huge and perhaps over time, these alternative media sources - and I don't just means blogs - will put pressure on the established media to create better products," said Rickards. <br /><br />"I see it happening already in television but there's plenty of room for growth. If established media houses don't respond to the increased challenges made by independents, it's my opinion that the public will simply begin to overlook them." <br /><br />Moreover, most Jahmaicans still rely on the "established media" for most of their information. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Neo_Anderson<br />Go-Local Moderator<br /> <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br />Posts: 8438<br />Gender: Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #50 - Oct 2nd, 2006, 9:58am <br />Quote from X_Supporter on Oct 1st, 2006, 6:06am:<br /><br /><br />If the discussion was focused on word origination then my response would have been angled in that direction. Sorry I mash the man corn. <br /><br />Bwoy1der, obviously Mr. X is ahead of the curve or have some serious connections. The following article validates his reasoning directly. <br /><br />***** <br /><br />A world of new media opening up in Jamaica <br />published: Sunday | October 1, 2006 <br /><br />Ross Sheil, Staff Reporter <br /><br />Established media in Jamaica is still playing catch up with overseas companies in developing online content, but a number of young and energetic Jamaicans have been using the platform to develop their own careers ... and are making money. <br /><br />Internationally large players such as the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and the Washington Post have made significant adjustments to their content to compete in a market where the 'dead tree' product of newspapers, and even television and radio, cannot keep pace with the Internet. <br /><br />Regularly equipped <br /><br />For instance, Post reporters are regularly equipped with cameras to record video, stills and audio, while the BBC is increasingly benefiting from so-called 'citizen journalism' - people submitting their own content, typically photographs, often taken with cellular phone cameras; as well as text-messaging their thoughts and ideas. <br /><br />Local photographer Peter Dean Rickards, 37, started small with his own website, www.afflictedyard.com, providing a relatively uncensored insight into Jamaican culture, but instead of a cellphone camera, he had an even more basic one megapixel digital camera. <br /><br />This, he said, "accidentally" led to him becoming a professional photographer with the website functioning as an online portfolio attracting clients from here and abroad, ranging from corporate clients to style magazines. <br /><br />Huge potential <br /><br />"I think the potential is huge and perhaps over time, these alternative media sources - and I don't just means blogs - will put pressure on the established media to create better products," said Rickards. <br /><br />"I see it happening already in television but there's plenty of room for growth. If established media houses don't respond to the increased challenges made by independents, it's my opinion that the public will simply begin to overlook them." <br /><br />Claude Mills, 29, and photographer Carlington Wilmot, 26, who at one time both worked with Jamaica's most established newspaper, The Gleaner, have started www.yardflex.net, a simple online blog with daily entries covering the local entertainment scene. <br /><br />Within a year, they expanded into newspaper format and after four bi-monthly issues and realising that most of their traffic came from expatriate Jamaican communities in the United States, their fifth issue has now been printed in South Florida, with distribution also in New York, Chicago and Toronto. <br /><br />"It's not been easy," said Mills, a former reporter. "However, from something small we've developed a following which we're only just beginning to serve and we'll see how much that might grow." <br /><br />Growth <br /><br />"All of these are growing at an average rate of 2,000 new members per day," said Frazer. <br /><br />He now employs two others, and given the massive success of the likes of MySpace and Hi5, Frazer believes he has a solid business model. <br /><br /><br />"There are so many niche markets to go after, which is why I have started to launch different sites," said Frazer. <br /><br />"These people tend to be online for much of the day, either at home or at work, and we are talking about the 24 to 35-year-old demographic that advertisers want." <br /><br />Jamaica's foremost communication school, the Caribbean Institute for Media and Communication (CARIMAC) at the University of the West Indies, is now fund-raising to expand so it can offer more courses. There are plans to include online distance learning courses and online journalism for those already in the profession..... <br /><br />According to CARIMAC director, Drs. Marjan deBruin, the media locally are still at a stage of merger rather than convergence, combining different media platforms. But with the level of convergence in the international media, it would be nonsensical she believes, for graduates to leave her department having learned to operate in only one platform. <br /><br />"The challenge for all of us in the industry, and I am including CARIMAC in this, is that we need to keep up," said deBruin. <br /><br />"However, there is the issue of resources and of course finding people who have the experience to teach the courses. Furthermore, you have to consider that with technological changes, as with these, it takes young people to bridge the gaps, but this is not the demographic of people who are the decision makers within the newsroom," she said. <br /><br />The Gleaner, which has over 120 million hits per month, its online arm Go-Jamaica (www.go-jamaica.com) 'Discussion Forum' will launch a new suite of online content today, October 1. <br /><br /><br />- ross.sheil@gleanerjm.com <br /><br /><br /> <br />nice article... <br /> <br />but have you ever visited those sites? <br />pure entertaintment...most dont go to them for hard news... <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br />________________________________________<br /> <br /> IP Logged <br /><br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #51 - Oct 5th, 2006, 5:01am <br /><br /> <br />Looks like someone taking notes. Is it coincidential or a copy cat? <br /> <br /> <br />Quote from Xx on Sep 14th, 2006, 8:13pm:<br /><br /><br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties account for 75% of the electorate (party die hearts) 37½% each, the third party <5%. The target electorate then becomes the swing voters’ appx. 20%; of this number one only needs 11% to win. So the % of people being targeted in McPolling is comprised of 20% of the electorate with a targeted goal of 11%. <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br />Any real difference between PNP and JLP? <br />Mark Wignall <br />Thursday, October 05, 2006 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Mark Wignall <br /> <br />The vast majority of those who voted for the PNP in 2002 are more likely to resist voting, or vote PNP with a "heavy heart" (if they have been turned off from the PNP) rather than give their vote to the JLP. The tough job facing the JLP right now is in mobilising about 20 per cent of approximately 260,000 likely voters/"lukewarm" uncommitted, many of whom don't know a JLP government. Even 40,000 of these voters in addition to the JLP's "sure stock" of voters could win the elections handsomely for the JLP. <br /> <br />Interesting Wiggi!! <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Ajengi<br />Dongorgon<br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br />I'm to females as <br />they are to me<br /><br />Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #52 - Oct 5th, 2006, 7:11am <br />'Interesting' you say; but on what basis does he make his observation? <br />Is he pulling his numbers from thin air. <br /> <br />Witless Wiggi is ignoring the Miss P factor, which is going to be huge. <br /> <br />For the sake of politics, all Miss P need do is to not blame the males so much for any past shortcomings; but she can say that a woman will be more sensitive to the needs of Jahmaicans, which is a fact. <br /> <br />I cannot imagine the Jahmaican women (a huge percentage of the electorate) not supporting a Portia government. <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #53 - Nov 13th, 2006, 8:02pm <br />Bruce outshines Portia <br />Voters say Golding doing better job than Simpson Miller <br /> <br />Sunday, November 12, 2006 <br /> <br />Opposition Leader Bruce Golding enjoys a higher job approval rating than Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller whose performance as head of the Government has seen continued slippage since August, the latest Stone Polls have shown. <br /> <br />According to the poll, conducted October 21-25 among 1,473 voters, when asked to say whether they approve or disapprove of the way in which both leaders were handling their jobs, 39.7 per cent said they approved of how Golding was functioning as opposition leader, while 34.4 per cent gave the nod to Simpson Miller. <br /> <br /> <br />Among those who disapproved, Golding scored 34.9 per cent to Simpson Miller's 40.5 per cent. <br /> <br />"In general, therefore, Mr Golding has a higher approval rating than Mrs Simpson Miller in regard to how he is perceived to be performing at his job," said Stone. <br /> <br />The pollsters said they used two different measures of job performance for the survey. The first measure, which was published in last Friday's Observer and which asked voters to rate Simpson Miller's performance as prime minister so far, showed a decline in overall favourable response (that is people saying that she is either doing a good, very good or fair job) from 66.2 per cent in August to 55 per cent in October. <br /> <br />Among respondents who said that Simpson Miller was doing a bad or very bad job, the prime minister's ratings climbed from 19.1 per cent in August to 25.1 per cent in October. The no response/don't know category came out at 14.7 per cent in August and 19.9 per cent in October. <br /> <br />The pollsters could not provide a similar comparison for Golding because they did not seek a rating of his performance in August. <br /> <br />In the October poll, 30.7 per cent of respondents said they thought Golding was doing a good or very good job as opposition leader so far; 22.1 per cent felt he was doing a fair job; 23.6 per cent said he was doing a bad or very bad job; while 23.6 per cent either did not respond or said they didn't know. <br /> <br />Since succeeding Edward Seaga as leader of the JLP last year, Golding has been credited with uniting the often fractious party and has been frontally taking on the Government on a range of issues, particularly in the Parliament. <br /> <br />Simpson Miller, who took over the reins of the ruling People's National Party (PNP) from P J Patterson in March this year, has been having a bit of a rough ride. <br /> <br />The PNP presidential race, from which she emerged victorious in February, has left deep divisions in the party and her attempts to heal the rift have borne little fruit so far. <br /> <br />The party has also been engaged in a quarrelsome candidate selection. But last week it announced that it has chosen 58 of the 60 candidates it will present to contest the next general elections. <br /> <br />______________________ <br /> <br /> <br />I bet he does, especially if the Stone/Observer conducts the polling. <br /> <br />Well, what exactly are the commonalities of their jobs that is/are comparable. Is this an Apples to Jackfruit comparison? <br /> <br />One runs a government with all the obvious responsibilities, while the others runs his mouth. Yeah he outperforms, but of course. <br /> <br />Now this is just one example of which I oulined in my example of 3 card samfye game employed by the Stone Team in the execution of their rope-a-dope momentum strategy. Disconnected from reality but long on PR. Above that there is little of scientific value. <br /> <br />More to come from Stone with this same theme just like Wignal; but the real deal will be those final erratic fluctuations that will reflect the will of the electorate And again, stable variables such as Race, Age, Cultural Norms and Gender exhibit more reliable inference qualities on which to predict the winner of the next general election. The other stuff is just pure politricks in polling motion. <br /> <br />Without 'erratic fluctuations' in the Stone polling results, the stone team will be "totally discredited" and the Jamaican public will witness a valuable lesson that not all that glitters is gold, as in the Stone Team gold membership. Also, the "informed Journalist and Intellectuals" in the society will start to question the polling game scientific methodology as outlined by Xx <br />Back to top <br /> <br /> <br /> IP Logged <br />Xx<br />Jus' Reach<br /> <br /><br /> <br />I love YaBB 1G - <br />SP1!<br /><br />Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig<br />Reply #54 - Nov 13th, 2006, 8:05pm <br />Portia, Bruce in dead heat <br /> <br /> <br />Monday, November 13, 2006 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Opposition Leader Bruce Golding are locked in a statistical dead heat in regard to voters' choice as to who is best to run the country, according to the latest opinion survey conducted in October by the Stone polling organisation. <br /> <br />Interestingly, the tie - 34 per cent for Simpson Miller and 31.2 per cent for Golding - arises from the prime minister's slippage since August when 40.2 per cent of voters polled felt that she was the best person to run the country compared to 32 per cent in favour of Golding. <br /> <br />Significantly too, the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, and which was conducted October 12-25 among 1,473 voters, also shows a near six per cent increase in persons who said that neither leader was best for the country. <br /> <br />In August when Stone asked the question 'who would do a better job of running the country?', 11.9 per cent of respondents said neither Simpson Miller nor Golding. In October when the same question was asked, the figure increased to 17.8 per cent. <br />That, combined with the dead heat led the pollsters to the conclusion that "there is growing disillusionment with both political leaders, as Mrs Simpson Miller's loss was not Mr Golding's gain". <br /> <br />_______________ <br /> <br />As we observe the bought and paid for political 'social scientist' disguised as researchers conducting so called scientific polling, we notice their obvious biases in executing the rope-a-dope momentum strategy. <br /> <br />Evidence: <br /> <br />Headline <br /> <br />Portia, Bruce in dead heat <br /> <br />Not really, the most logical description (and thats reaching, because the advantage points in another direction) would be a statistical deadheat, but thats left up to the fine print, Why?? <br /> <br />To infer a statistical deadheat as oppose to Portia leading, reflects the pollsters biases, because the margin of error 'MOE" is +/- 3%, meaning it cuts both ways and the most logical interpretation would be Portia leading, because 34% - 31.2% =2.8 Bruce's 3% bye. However, Portia's 3% could put her as high as 37% on the high end and 31% on the low end still higher proportionally than Bruce. <br /> <br />So in reality, Portia statistically should reflect the advantage; however the pollsters decided to give all the advantage to Bruce (one sided application of MOE)in a totally and unexplained conclusion citing a deadheat, again Why?? Espeically since Bruce's numbers also slipped from 32 to 31.2, it would make sense statistically to apply the MOE proportionally, but that would be science not politricts and bought and paid for researchers as in the Stone Team. <br /> <br />"the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent arises from the prime minister's slippage since August when 40.2 per cent of voters polled felt that she was the best person to run the country compared to 32 per cent in favour of Golding" <br /> <br /> <br />"That, combined with the dead heat led the pollsters to the conclusion that "there is growing disillusionment with both political leaders, as Mrs Simpson Miller's loss was not Mr Golding's gain". <br /> <br />This last statement is the equivalent of a scientific oxymoron based on this article/survey as it relates to this polling being a deadheat. How did Bruce gain? if as you state "Mrs Simpson Miller's loss was not Mr Golding's gain". <br /> <br />Stone momentum rope-a-dope be on the lookout for more its only an illusion have little relevance to scientific surveys”. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Nonsense!<br />Claims Stone Polls results dumped for political reasons self-serving, says Gorstew<br />by Desmond Allen Executive Editor - Operations<br />Monday, June 18, 2007<br /><br />Gorstew, Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's holding company which owns the Stone Polling Organisation, yesterday described as "self-serving" and "nonsensical", claims that the recent poll results were being dumped for political reasons.<br />In a statement responding to the claims, Gorstew said the poll results had been leaked to the street and the media, even before it had reached the owners who commissioned it.<br />"It is our belief that the poll results are now of no news value to us, since the entire country is now aware of them," the statement said, and expressed regret that "the private circumstances surrounding the operation and future direction of the Stone Polling organisation are now being politicised".<br />"We take strong objection to this and reject any comments made which seek to discredit our intentions as owners of the Stone Polls and we caution members of any political party against the dangers of politicising private business matters," Gorstew said. <br />That comment was in apparent reference to suggestions by some PNP officials that politics was behind Gorstew's decision to reject the Stone Poll results.<br />The statement also confirmed that lead consultant on the Stone team, Wyvolyn Gager had resigned over the Observer's decision to commission another pollster, Don Anderson.<br />Anderson was first hired to carry out market surveys for the Observer and then asked to do political polls as well, after a decision by the newspaper to establish itself as the leading publishers of poll in Jamaica.<br />Gager, a former Gleaner editor-in-chief, saw the move to bring in Anderson as a lack of confidence in the Stone team and sent in her resignation. But Gorstew emphasised that she was was held the highest regard and "we were confident in her leadership of the Stone Team".<br />In the statement, Gorstew also insisted that given the fact that the Anderson poll had shown the ruling People's National Party (PNP) ahead of the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), it was non-sensical to argue that the Stone polls were being held back, because they showed the PNP ahead of the JLP.<br />The Don Anderson Polls published over three days last week, showed the PNP ahead of the JLP by four percentage points and the PNP leader, Portia Simpson Miller getting more favourable rating over Opposition Leader, Bruce Golding.<br />"It is our position that with the breach of confidentiality and the resignation of Ms Gager, the Stone Organisation is in need of a complete review and restructuring, and this was communicated to Dr Ian Boxill on June 12, 2007," Gorstew said.<br />"At that time, it was also communicated to Dr Boxill that given this need for restructuring, we would no longer be requiring his services or those of his team." See full text of Gorstew statement on this page<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version<br /><br /><br />Feb 6th, 2011 <br /><br />Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project</strong><br /><br />I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved. <br /><br />This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.<br /><br /><br /><br />Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)<br /><br /><br />Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.<br /><br />The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.<br /><br /><br />The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure<br /><br />The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.<br /><br />Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.<br /><br /><br />“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)<br /><br /><br />Pureness Parameters<br /><br /><br />JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.<br /><br />PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.<br /><br />Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.<br /><br />Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm<br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 31.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007<br /><br />Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior. <br /><br />Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model. <br /><br />Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.<br /><br />Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.<br /><br /><br /> Operational Variables:<br /><br />These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.<br /><br /><br />Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.<br /><br />Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.<br /><br />Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).<br /><br />Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.<br /><br /><br />Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.<br /><br />Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change. <br /><br /><br />Scaling/Measurement<br /><br />How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.<br /><br /><br /><br />Re-inforcement of Theory<br /><br />This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using <strong>SPSS program</strong>, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.<br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Data<br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.<br /><br /><br />1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008<br />Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.<br />According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html<br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__<strong><em>5</em></strong><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___<strong><em>3</em></strong>__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008<br />Samuda, Shaw<br />On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.<br />Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html<br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2<strong>_-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2<strong>__-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1___2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze<br />Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009<br /><br />Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter<br /> <br />Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.<br />Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.<br />The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.<br />"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__<strong><em>5</em></strong><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__<strong><em><em>4</em></em></strong>__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2___3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />4. Bartlett defends office revamp<br />Published: Monday | October 12, 2009<br />Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer<br />Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.<br />Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3<strong>_-<em>2</em></strong>__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__<strong><em>2</em></strong>__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br />5. We want and deserve more<br />Published: Monday | December 7, 2009<br />Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.<br />The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html<br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2<strong>__-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2<strong>__-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br />6. Bruce Pays Big<br />Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010<br />16 Comments<br /><br />After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.<br />A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3<strong>_-<em>2</em></strong>__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />7. Erasing The Corruption Stain<br />Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010<br />7 Commentsampbell<br />Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter<br />From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.<br />Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3<strong>_-<em>2</em></strong>__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5<strong>__-<em>4</em></strong>__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__<strong><em>0</em></strong>__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />8. Blaine forms new political party<br />New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston<br />BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com<br />Thursday, August 05, 2010<br /><br />THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).<br />"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.<br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />9. Cash Plus Drama<br />Published: Friday | January 14, 2011<br />18 Comments<br /><br /> <br />Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers<br />Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.<br />"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.<br />Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.<br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html<br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-<strong><em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__<strong><em>1</em></strong>__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5_-4__-3_-2<strong>_-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br />10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg<br />Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011<br />9 Comments<br />Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File<br />Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.<br />In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:<br /><br /><br />Jlp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2<strong>_-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Pnp<br /><br />-5__-4__-3__-2<strong>__-<em>1</em></strong>__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br />Nnc<br /><br />-5__-4__-3<strong>_-<em>2</em></strong>__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />“<strong> Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design<br />Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm </strong><br /><br /><strong>Attitudinal Survey Data</strong><br /><br />This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:<br /><br />Jlp = +1<br /><br />Pnp = +5<br /><br />Nnc = -1<br /><br /><br />Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67<br /><strong>Chart 1</strong><br /> <br /> -5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5<br /> .....................0.............. <strong>(1.67)</strong><br /> In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”<br /><br /><br />%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%<br /><br /><br /><br />(Survey using Proxy data) <br /><br /><br />Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…<br /><br /><br />11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll<br />Tuesday, May 03, 2011<br /><br />Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June. <br />A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.<br />The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.<br />The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.<br />In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.<br />Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.<br />The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.<br />In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.<br />At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.<br />The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.<br />In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.<br />In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.<br />Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.<br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0<br /><br /><br /><br />11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility<br /> (57-26)=-31%<br /><br /> <br /> .................*<br />-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10<br /><br /> <br /><br />11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation<br /> (49-38)=-11%<br /><br /> .....................................* <br />-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Chart # 2</strong>Scale 10=100<br /> <br /> ..................... <strong>(-21%)</strong> [-31-11] <br />-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10<br /> <br /> <br /><br />• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative <strong>(-)21 </strong>for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.<br />• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is <strong>.67 </strong>to the left of <strong>1.67</strong>, which indicates a negative trending pattern.<br />• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend. <br />• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.<br />• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.<br />• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Polling Gameology</strong><br />Now, here comes the ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid for pollsters will produce surveys consistent with ‘gameological’ theory. <br /><br />Poll Gameology Sample:<br /><br />"<strong>JLP bounces back - PNP lead cut in half over past 12 months</strong>Published: Thursday | July 7, 2011 33 Comments <br />Bruce Golding addresses supporters at a 2007 party conference before the general election that brought his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to power. - File<br />Jubilant Labourites show their support at a 2009 JLP annual conference.<br />1 2 ><br /> <br />The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has gained a momentum that has seen it drastically reduce the lead which the People's National Party (PNP) holds as the party more Jamaicans would vote for if an election is called today.<br />More Jamaicans also believe the PNP would do a better job of governing the country at this time but, again, the JLP's tide is rising ominously.<br />The JLP has made big moves in the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, while the PNP has lost support or remained stable.<br />The latest poll, conducted islandwide from May 28 to 29 and June 4 to 5, shows that 35 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP candidate if an election is called today, while 25 per cent would vote for the JLP candidate, regardless of who is nominated to represent the two parties.<br />Eleven per cent of the respondents said they were undecided, while 27 per cent said they would not vote.<br />However, despite trailing the PNP by 10 percentage points, the poll provides encouraging news for the JLP, which is enjoying an upswing, while the PNP has lost some ground.<br />When Johnson last tested the pulse of the nation in April 2010, the PNP with 38 per cent support had doubled the JLP, which had only 19 per cent of the respondents, saying they would vote for the candidates of the governing party.<br />But in this latest poll, with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, the PNP has lost three percentage points while the JLP has gained six percentage points.<br />"This is one case where a political party cannot be sanguine with a 10-point lead," Johnson explained.<br />"The JLP has cut the PNP's 19 per cent lead in almost half in one year and it could be tough for the PNP unless it start giving people a reason to vote for its candidates," added Johnson.<br />The pollster noted that the story was similar when respondents were asked which party would do a better job of governing Jamaica at this time.<br />Forty-three per cent of Jamaicans said the PNP would do a better job in managing the affairs of the state at this time while 32 per cent made the JLP their choice.<br />But even as the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP continues to enjoy the lead that it has held since June 2008, that poll also showed encouraging signs for the JLP.<br />When Johnson posed the same question to Jamaicans just over one year ago, the PNP polled 43 per cent, while the JLP, with 26 per cent, was at its lowest level since 2007 and 17 percentage points behind Simpson Miller and her team.<br />Now one year later, the PNP has not moved and the JLP has gained six percentage points, closing that gap to 11 percentage points.<br />Even more encouraging for the JLP is the fact that its upswing has come from persons who were undecided about which party would do a better job of running the country.<br />Last April, 30 per cent of those polled declared that they were undecided about which party would be better at directing the affairs of the state. That number is now down to 25 which is about consistent with the polling numbers for non-election years and two of the island's leading political analysts believe it spells bad news for the PNP.<br />Troy Caine and Tony Myers agree that the signs are moving in the right direction for the JLP.<br />"The PNP doesn't have a lot of things going in its favour as it approaches the next general election," Caine told The Gleaner.<br />"The PNP was pushing for something to go in its favour from the Manatt-Dudus commission of enquiry and that did not work. Now, it is looking for other so-called scandals to try to discredit the JLP," Caine added.<br />He charged that the PNP has not made efforts to woo voters. Instead, it has sat expecting Jamaicans to boot out the Bruce Golding-led government.<br />That view is shared by Myers who is unimpressed by the actions of the PNP's Secretariat.<br />"The PNP seems to be saying that the people will get rid of the JLP rather than telling the country how the party would deal with issues such as crime and the economy. The leadership of the PNP needs to wake up," Myers said.<br />"The poll numbers have a lot to do with the lack of readiness of the PNP and the lack of inspiration of its Secretariat which is at a new low, below the floor," Myers added.<br />According to Caine: "The main problem that the PNP has why it is not gaining is that it is the same old team with the same old story and Simpson Miller's lame attempt at a recent reshuffle of her shadow Cabinet has found no favour with Jamaicans."<br />With elections constitutionally due next year, the PNP still has time to get back into gear but with the poll showing the momentum with the JLP, it will be hard work for the Opposition to change the status quo.<br />But Caine does not believe that is impossible.<br />"I do not hold much candle for the polls. Elections are all won at the constituency level and not on national issues."<br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110707/lead/lead1.html"<br /><br /><br /><strong>“REAL VS FAKE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH </strong> <br />Scientific Investigation <br /> <br />The construction of testable theory, which is accomplished by scientific research methods that are conducted in a designed stimulus neutral environment for the collection of data. <br /> <br />A research design or schematic is used to channel data into sterile and unbiased data pools from which valid and reliable inferences and deductions can be concluded. <br /> <br />Checks and balances are utilized via randomness to neutralize contaminated data, which if not neutralized will render your research invalid and not reliable with the ultimate effect of making your findings erroneous. <br /> <br />"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'. <br /> <br />As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways: <br /> <br />1) channel social agendas in a certain direction <br />2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction <br />3) influence social agendas in a certain direction <br />4) influence public policy <br />5) lead the people in a certain direction or <br />6) Valid and reliable Social Science Research <br /> <br />Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design that is only related to legitimate scientific investigation and the overall goal is to yield a certain type of outcome. <br /> <br />The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior. <br /> <br />Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties account for 75% of the electorate (party die hearts) 37½% each, the third party <5%. The target electorate then becomes the swing voters’ appx. 20%; of this number one only needs 11% to win. So the % of people being targeted in McPolling is comprised of 20% of the electorate with a targeted goal of 11%. <br /> <br /><br />Gameology Polling Method <br /><br />Reply #6 - Sep 16th, 2006, 6:52pm <br />Agengi etal, visualize/imagine a three (3) way horse race. One horse dey pon de track so long that im consider it him yaad ground, and because him a favorite him always start with a 9 lengths jump start before the race even begin. (Poll: 9 points lead by the PNP over the JLP) <br /> <br />Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/method/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shirt. <br /> <br />So because this ya race so important teamie use all kinda different method/strategy/bandooloo fe win de race.For example, some a juck wit battery, some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo. However, because the 9 lenghts so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Stone high power Opinion survey Team). Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1, but Horse # 2 figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Stone Polls come in. <br /> <br />Stone Team recognize de 9 point lead but dem draw fe de high power battery, tonic an oil (Opinion survey) and try and convince 11% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘theory’/game of momentum. Now if dem can sweet talk (Psychology)…. <br /> <br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy <br /> <br />…enuff people (strategically conducted Stone Polling surveys) then the goal is dat through some combination of: some people not betting and some switching dem can achieve dat 11 %. But in reality it’s a game of smoking mirrors, but if de high power battery, tonic an oil strong enuff, den dem can mek up de 9 lengths. Really its entirely possible if de 3 way guzzu (high power battery, tonic an oil) get mixed well and delivered by a master 3 card man- Stone Team. However, highly improbably because of the general voters attitude will mitigate/(work against) the reversal of the PNP’s early lead. <br /> <br />Why 11%. Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 5% Third and others Parties equals 80%. Now dat leaves 20% of which 11% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 11 points. <br /> <br /><br /> The below ‘watermelon’ effect is the intended result of the Gameology method/tactic.<br /><br />“Although the scholars and the polling organization in question have denied the allegations, some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon effect" (this refers to the Taiwanese expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side," i.e., people tend to jump on the bandwagon). <br /><br /><br />This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007. In 2012 Attitudinal under current will determine the results and X has completed a predictive model 18 months in advance using Affect Control Theory to measure attitudes of potential voters. The results of which are contained herein. Prepare yourself accordingly as X’s predictive model indicates that the government will change from JLP to PNP.<br /><br /><br />-------------<br /><br />A poll conducted by the Jamaica Sunday Herald also confirms the negative trending pattern occuring with the government, further validating X-1 Attitudinal Research.<br /><br />"Should this government be given a second term?<br />Select Poll Select a poll from the listDo you have any regrets about the amounts you have spent so far this Christmas season?Do you think the government is handling the tax on liquor properly?Which minister should be dropped from the Cabinet?Should this government be given a second term? <br />Number of Voters:901<br />First Vote:Sunday, 27 February 2011 18:11<br />Last Vote:Friday, 08 July 2011 21:09Should this government be given a second term?<br />Hits Percent Graph <br />No <br />587 65.1% <br />Yes <br />314 34.9% "X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-84549820753927858662011-07-07T16:35:00.000-07:002011-07-16T14:24:01.229-07:00BANNED? Jamaica Gleaner News Forum Stone Polling MethodologyWell, well an interesting development is occuring with the Jamaica Gleaner's Newspaper Discussion Forum.. i.e it disappeared....I am thinking its coincidental, but an X to Y linear correlation is indicating something else. <br /><br />Why? a day after I introduced elements of the Jamaican Gleaner Newspaper Discussion Forum topic in the Jamaican Star Newspaper Discussion Forum stating my intent to replicate original posting, that forum also has disappeared,.....looks like censor is the order of the day. However, I will introduce the topic here and replicate the original Stone Polling Methodology Election Thread.<br /><br />Stay tuned....X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-25449418977172370562011-05-09T14:22:00.001-07:002011-07-19T15:58:52.219-07:00Experimentation "Hole in The Head"http://www.youtube.com/smithleonardprodX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-55738313691420894762011-03-02T16:49:00.000-08:002012-01-03T11:17:30.305-08:00Working Book Title: The Reseach Methodology??????????Book Title and Chapters are subject to change<br /><br /><br /><br />Working chapter titles: <br /><br />1. Pythagoras/Aristotle (initial drafting phase)<br /><br />2. Opinion and Attitudinal Polling (Advance drafting phase)<br /><br />3. The Jamaican Election 2002 (Completed)<br /><br />4, The Jamaican Election 2007 (Advance phase)<br /><br />5. The Jamaica Election 2011 (Advance phase)<br /><br />6. Decoding the Jamaican Motto (Completed)?<br /><br />7. Medical Research<br /><br />8. Housing and Economic Development Blueprint (Advance phase)?<br /><br />10. ??X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-15201527616298760032010-12-15T16:10:00.000-08:002010-12-15T16:18:54.510-08:00Prostate Drug Development and Clinical Trials<strong>Caveat Emptor. <em>If you have been following this blog you will not be surprised by the following development. Educate yourself and dont allow yourself to become a victim because of lack of information, in the information age</em>.</strong> <br /><br />------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br /><br /><strong>Cancer drug now ready for clinical stage<br /><br />BY ALICIA DUNKLEY Observer senior reporter dunkleya@jamaicaobserver.com <br /><br />Wednesday, December 15, 2010</strong><br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br />JAMAICAN scientist Dr Henry Lowe says financing will be his next hurdle with another two to three years left in his work to break through with a formula to reduce and eliminate prostate cancer.<br /><br />Lowe last week said he and his research partners were on the last leg of work to develop the drug which will take millions of US dollars.<br /><br />In the meantime, however, he said the formula will be locally produced, first as a nutraceutical.<br /><br />Speaking at the Observer weekly Monday Exchange at the newspaper's Beechwood Avenue offices in Kingston on Monday, Dr Lowe, who for the most part has funded his work, said the clinical tests which are to follow will be the most expensive part of the quest but said the signs so far are positive.<br /><br />"I don't think financing will be an issue; I left a meeting where a major broker sat down with us this morning (Monday) for nearly two hours and they are going to be working with us to raise local and international financing because they have done all the research and they are satisfied that it is doable and should be supported," he told Observer editors and reporters.<br /><br />Dr Lowe said when his first announcement about the potential of his research with the Jamaican ball moss was made some three years ago when the then People's National Party government had committed to putting up some US$3 million towards his research at that point. However, the administration changed in 2007 without this being carried out. The present government he said has not given any similar commitments.<br /><br />Monday, Dr Lowe, who last week also launched the Bio-Tech Research and Development Institute — a linkage of the University of the West Indies, University of Technology, Northern Caribbean University and the Scientific Research Council — to further develop pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals from indigenous Jamaican plants said this collaborative approach was the private sector mode of his endeavour.<br /><br />"It was always something I felt was necessary. I submitted recommendations when Dr Carlton Davis was in the Office of the Prime Minister but you get nothing out of government, you make recommendations and nothing happens, this is why the institute is the private sector mode of making it happen," he said.<br /><br />In the meantime, head of Public Health and Health Technology at the University of Technology and scientific pioneer in his own right, Professor Winston Davidson, said there was no question of abandoning Jamaica and taking the research abroad where the interest and funding was far more. He said the product will have to be seen as a global product, with a marriage of both the local and the global, noting that Jamaica would be wise to invest in developing the less traditional sectors given declines in areas it is heavily dependent, such as bauxite.<br /><br /><br /><br />Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Cancer-drug-now-ready-for-clinical-stage_8232258#ixzz18EF2TWOF<br /><br />-------------------------------<br /><br />Questions for Dr Henry Lowe<br />Published: Tuesday | December 14, 2010 9 Comments and 0 Reactions <br /><br />William Aiken, Contributor<br /><br />The intention of this letter is not to respond to the personal attacks by Dr Henry Lowe, but is designed to inform the public of the questions they should ask of any new bioactive product being brought to market, whether produced by a local or foreign scientist, with the intention of preventing, treating or ameliorating any disease - whether it is a pharmaceutical or neutra-ceutical agent.<br /><br />The questions posed are especially important in this particular instance because the Jamaican moss ball or 'old man's beard' (Tillandsia Recurvata) from which Dr Lowe's product is derived does not enjoy a tradition of human consumption and, therefore, does not have a historical track record of safety in humans, unlike other neutraceutical products which, by definition, are derived from food sources and therefore require less regulatory oversight.<br /><br />Insufficient information<br /><br />On hearing of the launch of Dr Lowe's formula, I sought the information listed below but could not find it anywhere. Instead, what I found was a patent application outlining the molecule's ability to kill cancer cells in the lab. While this is good, it is far from sufficient information in the scientific and public domain to guide one on the safety and efficacy of the product in question in humans, hence my deliberate use of the words "overstated and premature" which I continue to stand by. I could not, in good conscience, recommend or prescribe a product which I myself would not be willing to take because of a lack of the requisite safety information.<br /><br />The minimum numbers of questions that every responsible and ethical doctor will ask, and that discerning members of the public should also ask before deciding on the safety of a new bioactive compound derived from a plant not traditionally ingested by humans, are as follows:<br /><br />1. Do in-vitro and in-vivo toxicological studies unequivocally demonstrate that the compound is safe and in which medical/scientific journal are these results published?<br /><br />2. What is the effect of the bioactive molecule on the liver and kidneys, the two organs primarily involved in the detoxification and excretion of most drugs, and where are the published data to be found?<br /><br />3. What, if any, are the acute toxicological effects of the bioactive molecule on the cardiovascular system, central nervous system and gastrointestinal system and in what journal is this information to be found?<br /><br />4. What is the effect on the skin and mucous membranes and where is this information to be found?<br /><br />5. What is the effect of this compound on the function of the male reproductive system of the rat and its offspring? Where is the information to be found?<br /><br />6. Is this compound secreted in semen and what is its effect on the reproductive function of the female partner?<br /><br />7. What, if any, are its long-term genetic and oncogenic (potential to cause cancer) effects?<br /><br />8. Where are the published reports of the preliminary studies carried out in a limited number of human volunteers to demonstrate the compound's safety and handling by the human body?<br /><br />9. We know that there are thousands of molecules that are biologically active against cancer cells in the lab which do not translate into a net benefit when tried in humans. In which scientific journal can we find even limited evidence of the efficacy of this product?<br /><br />Beyond the question of efficacy, the onus is on Dr Lowe to provide unequivocal and incontrovertible scientific evidence that this is first and foremost a safe product. Members of the medical fraternity in general, and the urological community in particular, eagerly await the answers to these questions by the provision of objective and validly obtained published evidence.<br /><br />Dr William D. Aiken is head of urology, University Hospital of the West Indies. <br /><br /><br />http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20101214/cleisure/cleisure4.htmlX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-59296465065509202682010-10-16T03:28:00.000-07:002010-10-16T03:41:41.393-07:00Invega Sustenna-Medical Ad on the Jamaican Gleaner Web PageAfter reading this advertisement on the Jamaican Gleaner Webpage I wonder how the clinical trial subjects turned out? Does anyone really knows or do they just die from 'Obeah' with an unknown Cause of Death? <br /><br />CAVEAT EMPTOR BUYER BEWARE<br /><br /><br />http://www.invegasustenna.com/invegasustenna/index.html?utm_source=Google&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=Numbers<br />IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION FOR INVEGA® SUSTENNA®<br /><br />INVEGA® SUSTENNA® (paliperidone palmitate) is used for the treatment of schizophrenia.<br /><br />INVEGA® SUSTENNA® is not approved for the treatment of dementia-related psychosis in elderly patients. Elderly patients who were given oral antipsychotics like INVEGA® SUSTENNA® in clinical studies for psychosis caused by dementia (memory problems) had a higher risk of death.<br /><br />Neuroleptic Malignant Syndrome (NMS) is a rare, but serious side effect that could be fatal and has been reported with INVEGA® SUSTENNA® and similar medicines. Call the doctor right away if you develop symptoms such as a high fever, rigid muscles, shaking, confusion, sweating more than usual, increased heart rate or blood pressure, or muscle pain or weakness. Treatment should be stopped if you are being treated for NMS.<br /><br />Tardive Dyskinesia (TD) is a rare, but serious and sometimes permanent side effect reported with INVEGA® SUSTENNA® and similar medicines. Call your doctor right away if you start to develop twitching or jerking movements that you cannot control in your face, tongue, or other parts of your body. The risk of developing TD and the chance that it will become permanent is thought to increase with the length of therapy and the total dose received. This condition can also develop after a short period of treatment at low doses but this is less common. There is no known treatment for TD but it may go away partially or completely if the medicine is stopped.<br /><br />One risk of INVEGA® SUSTENNA® is that it may change your heart rhythm. This effect is potentially serious. You should talk to your doctor about any current or past heart problems. Because these problems could mean you're having a heart rhythm abnormality, contact your doctor IMMEDIATELY if you feel faint or feel a change in the way that your heart beats (palpitations).<br /><br />High blood sugar and diabetes have been reported with INVEGA® SUSTENNA® and similar medicines. If you already have diabetes or have risk factors such as being overweight or a family history of diabetes, blood sugar testing should be done at the beginning and during the treatment. The complications of diabetes can be serious and even life-threatening. Call your doctor if you develop signs of high blood sugar or diabetes, such as being thirsty all the time, having to urinate or "pass urine" more often than usual, or feeling weak or hungry.<br /><br />Weight gain has been observed with INVEGA® SUSTENNA® and other atypical antipsychotic medications. If you notice that you are gaining weight, please notify your doctor. <br /><br />Some people may feel faint, dizzy, or may pass out when they stand up or sit up suddenly. Be careful not to get up too quickly. It may help if you get up slowly and sit on the edge of the bed or chair for a few minutes before you stand up. These symptoms may decrease or go away after your body becomes used to the medicine.<br /><br />INVEGA® SUSTENNA® and similar medicines have been associated with decreases in the counts of white cells in circulating blood. If you have a history of low white blood cell counts or have unexplained fever or infection, then please contact your doctor right away.<br /><br />INVEGA® SUSTENNA® and similar medicines can raise the blood levels of a hormone called prolactin and blood levels of prolactin remain high with continued use. This may result in some side effects including missed menstrual periods, leakage of milk from the breasts, development of breasts in men, or problems with erection. <br /><br />If you have a prolonged or painful erection lasting more than 4 hours, seek immediate medical help to avoid long-term injury.<br /><br />Call your doctor right away if you start thinking about suicide or wanting to hurt yourself.<br /><br />INVEGA® SUSTENNA® can make some people feel dizzy, sleepy, or less alert. Until you know how you are going to respond to INVEGA® SUSTENNA®, be careful driving a car, operating machines, or doing things that require you to be alert.<br /><br />This medicine may make you more sensitive to heat. You may have trouble cooling off or be more likely to become dehydrated. Be careful when you exercise or spend time doing things that make you warm.<br /><br />Some medications interact with INVEGA® SUSTENNA®. Please inform your healthcare professional of any medications or supplements that you are taking.<br /><br />INVEGA® SUSTENNA® should be used cautiously in people with a seizure disorder, who have had seizures in the past, or who have conditions that increase their risk for seizures.<br /><br />Inform your healthcare professional if you become pregnant or intend to become pregnant during therapy with INVEGA® SUSTENNA®.<br /><br />Do not drink alcohol while you are taking INVEGA® SUSTENNA®.<br /><br />In a study of people taking INVEGA® SUSTENNA®, common side effects in the treatment of schizophrenia were reactions at the injection site, sleepiness, dizziness, feeling of inner restlessness, and abnormal muscle movements, including tremor (shaking), shuffling, uncontrolled involuntary movements, and abnormal movements of the eyes.<br /><br />This is not a complete list of all possible side effects. Ask your doctor or treatment team if you have any questions or want more information.<br /><br />If you have any questions about INVEGA® SUSTENNA® or your therapy, talk with your doctor.<br /><br />You are encouraged to report negative side effects of prescription drugs to the FDA. Visit www.fda.gov/medwatch, or call 1-800-FDA-1088X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-5344659101025292272010-10-16T02:39:00.000-07:002010-10-16T02:41:17.243-07:00Drug Trial Guinea PigsJuly 11, 2010<br /><br />Inside the Risky World of Drug-Trial 'Guinea Pigs<br /><br />Human volunteers in university research may not realize the dangers they face, an anthropologist has found<br /><br />Sarah Bones for The Chronicle<br />Roberto Abadie, an anthropologist who studies human volunteers in drug research, at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, in Philadelphia, where some of his subjects volunteer.<br /><br />By David Glenn<br /><br />http://chronicle.com/article/Inside-the-Risky-World-of/66225/<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />New York<br /><br />Frank Little (not his real name) is a 33-year-old political activist in Philadelphia. To help subsidize an itinerant life of rallies, food cooperatives, and independent publishing, Mr. Little volunteers a few times a year to participate in safety trials of new drugs. In exchange for two weeks of blood draws, boredom, and occasional side effects during these "Phase 1" trials, Mr. Little can pocket $3,000 or more.<br /><br />"I try to mix it up," Mr. Little says. "I sometimes do MRI studies and other psychology experiments, which only pay a hundred dollars or so. But two or three times a year I'll do a Phase 1 trial, and there the payments are much higher." (Mr. Little insisted on a pseudonym because he worries about compromising his ability to volunteer for future trials.)<br /><br />Since 1980, when Phase 1 drug tests on prisoners were banned in the United States, university medical schools and pharmaceutical companies have depended on volunteers like Mr. Little to test the safety of new drugs. Bioethicists have devoted thousands of pages to debates about the system. Some fear that high payments for volunteers are an "undue inducement" that might tempt them to take risks against their better judgment. Others say that people like Mr. Little are consenting adults who are reasonably capable of assessing danger.<br /><br />Enlarge Image Getty Images<br /> Getty Images<br />Most of those debates have been conducted in the abstract. But now an anthropologist has produced a study of several dozen medical volunteers, including Mr. Little. Roberto L. Abadie, a visiting scholar in the health-sciences program at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, spent a year living in youth hostels and group houses in Philadelphia, trying to get a sense of why volunteers do what they do and how they understand their risks.<br /><br />He offers his findings in The Professional Guinea Pig: Big Pharma and the Risky World of Human Subjects (Duke University Press, August). The book's primary purpose is to offer a detailed description of medical volunteering and its contexts, not to weigh in on the ethics of clinical trials. But after his year in the field, Mr. Abadie does have opinions about policy: Volunteers underestimate their long-term risks, he says, and universities should do more to protect them.<br /><br />"Philosophers and bioethicists are very logical, and they can construct strong arguments," Mr. Abadie says. "But what they can't do is to go in there and do what I did—to do an in-depth ethnographic analysis, spending weeks and months with volunteers. Knowing who they are, what their neighborhoods look like, how they go through the trials, how they think and talk about the risks they're taking."<br /><br />A Mix of Motives<br />Mr. Abadie spent time with anarchist activists who are attracted to guinea-pigging because of the flexibility it offers. Between 1996 and 2002, that milieu was documented in Guinea Pig Zero, a Philadelphia zine published by and for activist medical volunteers.<br /><br />But Mr. Abadie's book also examines two other types of medical volunteer. First, he describes transient, economically struggling people who travel from place to place in search of lucrative trials. These volunteers are often less educated and more socially isolated than the anarchists.<br /><br />Second, Mr. Abadie spent months at an HIV clinic where patients were participating in long-term trials to determine the effectiveness of new drug combinations. That environment is very different from the Phase 1 trials described elsewhere in the book. At the clinic, the HIV patients knew they had a personal stake in the development of new drugs, and the financial compensation they received was much smaller. Even though they were taking risks by participating in the drug studies, Mr. Abadie says, those volunteers seemed to reap psychological gains.<br /><br />"They see the trials as an opportunity to empower themselves in their fight against the disease, a way to take control of their bodies and their lives," he writes.<br /><br />Mr. Abadie is more ambivalent about the wisdom of participating in Phase 1 trials. Most of the volunteers he spent time with tend to say—naïvely, in his view—that the drugs will "wash out" of their systems within a week after the experiments. That may be true in most cases, but some drugs can accumulate in the liver. There may also be unknown risks associated with participating in many trials over a lifetime.<br /><br />"Almost my entire time there, volunteers said to me, 'No, risk isn't a problem,'" Mr. Abadie says. "It wasn't until the end of the year that someone finally said, 'OK, we don't like to talk about it. Maybe it's a coping mechanism.'"<br /><br />A New Angle on Risk<br />People who use drugs are familiar territory to Mr. Abadie. He was born and raised in Uruguay, and he spent several years there working with heroin users at an HIV clinic before moving to Canada to study anthropology. "Throughout my life, I had been studying drug users and how they understand risk," he says. "That's what I thought I would do as a medical anthropologist."<br /><br />But when he entered the doctoral program at CUNY in 2001, Mr. Abadie became fascinated by the story of Ellen Roche, a staff member at the Johns Hopkins University who died while volunteering for a trial of a new asthma medication.<br /><br />"When I first found this topic, I was so engaged with it that I couldn't sleep," he says.<br /><br />Through an extended network of friends, Mr. Abadie made contact with Robert P. Helms, a self-taught historian and serial medical volunteer who was the editor of Guinea Pig Zero.<br /><br />"When Roberto first came to Philadelphia, it was clear that he didn't know very much," Mr. Helms says. "But he's a quick learner. He hung around, and he asked the right questions."<br /><br />Mr. Abadie would like to see Phase 1 volunteers be recognized legally as workers, bringing them under the umbrella of labor law. (Mr. Helms, an anarchist and a former labor organizer, is skeptical. "Roberto hasn't had the horrible experiences I've had with American labor law," he says.)<br /><br />Mr. Abadie would also like to see the creation of a national registry of Phase 1-trial participants. A central database, he says, would prevent people from participating in too many trials, and might also help researchers identify long-term adverse effects associated with certain experiments.<br /><br />Glen N. Gaulton, executive vice dean for research at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, says he is open to such an idea, if it can be done efficiently and with enough privacy protections.<br /><br />"Conceptually, it's absolutely the right thing to do," Mr. Gaulton says. "Especially in a city like Philadelphia, where there are so many medical centers. We ask subjects to disclose if they're participating in other trials—but if someone wants to lie, I won't necessarily know if they're simultaneously doing a trial across town."<br /><br />But Mr. Gaulton disputes any suggestion that his university does a poor job of protecting research participants. After the death of Jesse Gelsinger, an 18-year-old patient who died during a gene-therapy experiment at Penn in 1999, the university created new systems for auditing clinical trials. "Our auditing office randomly visits trials to make sure that protocols are being followed," he says. "Any institution that doesn't do that is asking for trouble. The single biggest risk associated with clinical trials does not have to do with payments or volunteer recruitment, but with making sure that the experiment is actually being carried out in the way that the IRB was told it would be carried out."<br /><br />Is that really the single biggest risk? Mr. Abadie is not so sure. "I think the biggest way to reduce risks is to look at financial conflicts of interest," he says. "When researchers have financial stakes in the outcome of a trial, that compromises safety, ethics, and the legitimacy of the entire thing."X-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-30684848813706355392010-10-09T10:59:00.000-07:002010-10-09T11:00:02.244-07:00Medical ApartheidMedical Apartheid<br />From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia<br />Jump to: navigation, search <br /> This article is written like an advertisement. Please help rewrite this article from a neutral point of view. For blatant advertising that would require a fundamental rewrite to become encyclopedic, use {{db-spam}} to mark for speedy deletion. <br /><br />Medical Apartheid: The Dark History of Medical Experimentation on Black Americans from Colonial Times to the Present is a 2007 book by Harriet A. Washington. It is a comprehensive history of medical experimentation on African Americans. From the era of slavery to the present day, this book presents the first full account of black America's mistreatment as unwitting subjects of medical experimentation. Medical Apartheid won the 2007 National Book Critics Circle Award for Nonfiction.[1][2]<br /><br />[edit] See alsoX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-90452599265707989342010-10-09T10:54:00.000-07:002010-10-09T10:57:01.875-07:00Abbott to withdraw diet drug MeridiaAbbott to withdraw diet drug Meridia<br /><br /><br />By Bruce Japsen and Andrew Zajac<br /> <br />5:22 p.m. EDT, October 8, 2010<br />E-mail Print Share Text Size la-fi-1009-meridia-20101008 <br />Abbott Laboratories said Friday that it would withdraw the diet drug Meridia at the request of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, less than a month after it failed to win over one of the federal agency's safety advisory panels.<br /><br />The FDA confirmed the Chicago drug giant's decision, saying Abbott withdrew the drug because of "clinical trial data indicating an increased risk of heart attack and stroke."<br /><br />The withdrawal of Meridia, also known by its scientific name sibutramine, leaves just one U.S.-approved diet drug on the market: the prescription Xenical.<br /><br />"Meridia's continued availability is not justified when you compare the very modest weight loss that people achieve on this drug to their risk of heart attack or stroke," said Dr. John Jenkins, director of the FDA's Office of New Drugs in the agency's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. "Physicians are advised to stop prescribing Meridia to their patients, and patients should stop taking this medication. Patients should talk to their healthcare provider about alternative weight loss and weight loss maintenance programs."<br /><br />Drug safety has been the subject of intense criticism from consumer groups and mounting scrutiny by the Obama administration and members of Congress from both political parties. Though Meridia remains available in 40 other countries around the world, regulatory agencies abroad have the drug under scrutiny as well.<br /><br />Last month, eight of 16 members of an FDA advisory panel said Meridia should be withdrawn from the U.S. market. Six of the panelists said the drug should be prescribed only by "specially trained physicians" and should include a strict FDA black box warning noting the new limits.<br /><br />The other two panelists said a new boxed warning should be added to alert consumers of increased risks of heart attacks and a need for closer monitoring of patients by clinicians. None of the members of the Endocrinologic and Metabolic Drugs Advisory Committee panel said the drug should remain on the market with the labeling in its current form.<br /><br />Sidney Wolfe — head of Public Citizen, a not-for-profit health research group — criticized the FDA for waiting too long to pressure Abbott to pull the drug. Wolfe noted that in January, the European Medicines Agency recommended halting the use of Meridia based on the same evidence cited by the FDA.<br /><br />"The FDA's decision to ask Abbott to withdraw the drug is commendable but dangerously too late for all of the victims of its unacceptable risks," said Wolfe, whose group asked the agency to ban Meridia in 2002.<br /><br />In a statement, Abbott said it "believes [Meridia] has a positive risk/benefit profile in the approved patient population but will comply with the FDA's request."<br /><br />Meridia was approved by the FDA in November 1997 for "weight loss and maintenance of weight loss in obese people, as well as in certain overweight people with other risks for heart disease," the FDA said. At the time, the agency said the approval "was based on clinical data showing that more people receiving sibutramine lost at least 5% of their body weight than people on placebo who relied on diet and exercise alone."<br /><br />Meridia has not been a big seller. Revenue from the pill has deteriorated amid criticism of its heart risks. Abbott has said it no longer promotes the drug in the U.S., where its sales are projected this year to be $30 million.<br /><br />Prescription diet pills have had trouble winning respect with consumers and doctors because of safety issues and side effects. In 1997, a diet drug combination known as fen-phen was yanked from pharmacy shelves after it was linked to heart valve damage.<br /><br />Late last month, the FDA sharply limited the use of the diabetes drug Avandia because it was associated with an increased risk of heart problems. In that case, the FDA decided there was a possible benefit to patients for whom no other treatment worked, so it permitted the drug to remain on the market subject to numerous restrictions.<br /><br />With Meridia, regulators thought weight loss would lead to cardiovascular benefits that would outweigh worrisome, but readily monitored, side effects such as spikes in blood pressure and heart rate. But instead, studies showed an increased risk of heart attacks and strokes.<br /><br />FDA officials estimated that about 100,000 people use Meridia and said they were not aware of any risks associated with halting use of the drug.<br /><br />Also on Friday, the FDA warned consumers against using Slimming Beauty Bitter Orange Slimming Capsules because they contain sibutramine — which is the active ingredient in Meridia.<br /><br />bjapsen@tribune.com<br /><br />azajac@tribune.comX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2697647927506425750.post-6477699652755880362010-10-02T09:43:00.000-07:002010-10-02T19:06:14.849-07:00STD's Clinical Research-US apologisehttp://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/10/01/us.guatemala.apology/index.html?hpt=T2<br /><br /><br />US apologizes for infecting Guatemalans with STDs in the 1940sBy the CNN Wire Staff<br />October 1, 2010 10:18 p.m. EDT<br /> <br />President Obama offers "profound apologies" to the Guatemalan president for the tests.STORY HIGHLIGHTS<br />Obama offers "profound apologies"<br />Guatemala accepts the apology, the presidential spokesman said<br />The United States is launching an investigation<br />The research was "reprehensible," the U.S. statement said<br />Washington (CNN) -- The United States apologized Friday for a 1946-1948 research study in which people in Guatemala were intentionally infected with sexually transmitted diseases.<br /><br />A statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius called the action "reprehensible."<br /><br />"We deeply regret that it happened, and we apologize to all the individuals who were affected by such abhorrent research practices," the joint statement said. "The conduct exhibited during the study does not represent the values of the United States, or our commitment to human dignity and great respect for the people of Guatemala."<br /><br />President Barack Obama called his Guatemalan counterpart Friday "offering profound apologies and asking pardon for the deeds of the 1940s," President Alvaro Colom told CNN en Espanol in a telephone interview from Guatemala City.<br /><br />"Though it happened 64 years ago, it really is a profound violation of human rights," said Colom, who said the report took him by surprise.<br /><br />Clinton called him on Thursday, he said. "She too offered her apologies," he said, adding that she told him she was ashamed the United States had been involved in the matter.<br /><br /><br /><br />Video: U.S. gave STDs to Guatemalans <br />RELATED TOPICS <br />Guatemala <br />Sexually Transmitted Diseases <br />Contagious and Infectious Diseases <br />Asked whether Guatemala was planning to take legal action, Colom said, "That's part of the work of the commission."<br /><br />"We reject these types of actions, obviously," said Guatemala presidential spokesman Ronaldo Robles. "We know that this took place some time ago, but this is unacceptable and we recognize the apology from Secretary Clinton."<br /><br />The scientific investigation, called the U.S. Public Health Service Sexually Transmitted Disease Inoculation Study of 1946-1948, aimed at determining the effectiveness of penicillin in treating or preventing syphilis after subjects were exposed to the disease. Gonorrhea and chancres were also studied. Penicillin was a relatively new drug at the time.<br /><br />The tests were carried out on female commercial sex workers, prisoners in the national penitentiary, patients in the national mental hospital and soldiers. According to the study, more than 1,600 people were infected: 696 with syphilis, 772 with gonorrhea and 142 with chancres.<br /><br />The study came to light recently when Wellesley College researcher Susan Reverby found the archived but unpublished notes from the project as she was researching a similar study that was conducted between 1932 and 1972 in Tuskegee, Alabama. That study included nearly 400 poor African-American men with preexisting syphilis whose disease was allowed to progress without treatment. Researchers did not infect the subjects, but they did not tell them they had the disease either.<br /><br />The Tuskegee study was done under the direction of Dr. John C. Cutler, a U.S. Public Health Service medical officer who died in 2003.<br /><br />"I was doing what historians do," said Reverby, a professor of the history of ideas and women and gender issues, who has written a book on the Tuskegee study. She went to the University of Pittsburgh, where Cutler had taught, and searched through an archive of his papers.<br /><br />"There was nothing on Tuskeegee in the papers, but there was this report of the Guatemala study," she told CNN in a telephone interview. "I started to read, and I almost fell off my chair." <br /><br />She found that Cutler also led the research in Guatemala. It was carried out there, in part, she said, because prostitution was legal and prisoners were allowed to bring prostitutes in for sex.<br /><br />Dr. Francis Collins, director of the U.S. National Institutes for Health, told reporters that the Guatemala study represented "a dark chapter in the history of medicine."<br /><br />The study "appears to have been funded" by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, he said, citing four primary ethical violations: 1) study subjects "were members of one or more vulnerable populations;" 2) there is no evidence they gave informed consent; 3) they were often deceived about what was being done to them; 4) they were intentionally infected with pathogens that could cause serious illness without their understanding or consent.<br /><br />U.S. officials said Friday that ethical safeguards would prevent such abuses from occurring today.<br /><br />An Institute of Medicine task force will look at what happened in the study, and a group of ethics experts will convene to review the matter and report on how best to ensure such abuses do not recur, Collins said.<br /><br />"The study is a sad reminder that adequate human subject safeguards did not exist a half-century ago," the U.S. statement said. "Today, the regulations that govern U.S.-funded human medical research prohibit these kinds of appalling violations."<br /><br />Collins said the published literature contains more than 40 other U.S.-based studies "where intentional infection was carried out with what we could now consider to be completely inadequate consent in the United States."<br /><br />Many of those studies were funded by the Public Health Service, he said.<br /><br />But at least some people believed at the time that the experiment was flawed, according to Wellesley's Reverby, who cited this reaction to Cutler's work from his supervisor, PHS physician R.C. Arnold: "I am a bit, in fact more than a bit, leery of the experiment with insane people," Arnold said. "They can not give consent, do not know what is going on, and if some good organization got wind of the work, they would raise a lot of smoke. I think the soldiers would be best or the prisoners for they can give consent. Maybe I'm too conservative ... In the report, I see no reason to say where the work was done and the type of volunteer."<br /><br />"The vast majority" of study subjects were adequately treated for their illness, Collins said. One subject died during an epileptic seizure, though it was not clear that the death was related to the study, he added.<br /><br />Cutler's work helped refine testing procedures and suggested a better means of prevention, but "made little impact on syphilis research," Reverby concluded.<br /><br />Clinton and Sebelius said the United States is launching an investigation and also convening a group of international experts to review and report on the most effective methods to make sure all human medical research worldwide meets rigorous ethical standards.<br /><br />"As we move forward to better understand this appalling event, we reaffirm the importance of our relationship with Guatemala, and our respect for the Guatemalan people, as well as our commitment to the highest standards of ethics in medical research," the U.S. statement said.<br /><br />CNN's Arthur Brice, Nick Valencia and Tom Watkins and CNNRadio's Shelby Lin Erdman contributed to this report.<br /><br />_______________<br /><br />Studies show 'dark chapter' of medical researchBy Elizabeth Landau, CNN<br />October 1, 2010 6:08 p.m. EDT<br />The Public Health Service took photographs during the Tuskegee syphilis study, but no captions remain. This is one of them.STORY HIGHLIGHTS<br />The Tuskegee study, which began in the early 1930s, consisted of 399 African-American men<br />The Guatemala-based research involved 696 subjects <br />Both studies were sponsored by U.S. government health agencies <br />(CNN) -- The Tuskegee syphilis experiment of the 20th century is often cited as the most famous example of unethical medical research. Now, evidence has emerged that it overlapped with a shorter study, also sponsored by U.S. government health agencies, in which human subjects were unknowingly being harmed by participating in an experiment.<br /><br />Research from Wellesley College professor Susan Reverby has uncovered evidence of an experiment in Guatemala that infected people with sexually transmitted diseases in an effort to explore treatments. <br /><br />The U.S. government apologized for the research project on Friday, more than 60 years after the experiments ended. Officials said an investigation will be launched into the matter. <br /><br />The Tuskegee and the Guatemala studies show what National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins called a "a dark chapter in the history of medicine." <br /><br />As unethical as the methods were, the basic research questions behind both studies were highly relevant at the time, said Peter Brown, medical anthropologist at Emory University. Research in Guatemala focused on the powers of penicillin; in Tuskegee, researchers wanted to know the natural history of syphilis.<br /><br />"In a racist context, they thought [syphilis] might be different in African-Americans; the real unethical part in my mind had to do with denial of treatment and, most importantly, the denial of information about the study to the men involved," he said.<br /><br />In 1926, syphilis was seen as a major health problem, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; in 1928, about 25 percent of black employees at the Delta Pine and Land Company of Mississippi had tested positive for syphilis, according to Tuskegee University. A charity called the Julius Rosenwald Fund came to the U.S. Public Health Service to start a project to improve the health of African-Americans in the South. <br /><br />But in 1929, the Great Depression began, and the Rosenwald Fund had to cut its funds for the treatment program. <br /><br />The director of the U.S. Public Health Service, Dr. Taliaferro Clark, proposed salvaging the project by investigating the course of untreated syphilis. <br /><br />Getting African-Americans to participate was not a challenge; most African-Americans did not have access to medical care at that time and the study provided free health exams, food and transportation, according to Tuskegee University. <br /><br /><br /><br />Video: U.S. gave STDs to Guatemalans <br />RELATED TOPICS <br />African-American Issues <br />Centers for Disease Control and Prevention <br />Sexually Transmitted Diseases <br />Tuskegee <br />But none of the patients who had syphilis was told that he carried the condition, and doctors did not give the patients sufficient treatment. Instead they were told they would get treatment for "bad blood," a phrase that connoted a variety of illnesses including syphilis, anemia and fatigue, the CDC said. <br /><br />The Tuskegee study, which began in the early 1930s, consisted of 399 African-American men with syphilis and 201 without, according to the CDC. The Tuskegee Institute partnered with the Public Health Service for an experiment that was supposed to last 6 months. Instead it lasted about 40 years. <br /><br />While the Tuskegee study was still going in the 1940s, other efforts that would never meet today's medical ethics standards were going on elsewhere. The Public Health Service did research at a U.S. prison in 1944 that involved injecting inmates with gonorrhea, Reverby said. That project was abandoned, and the Public Health Service turned to Guatemala to more closely examine syphilis and in what ways penicillin could treat or prevent it, Reverby said in documents posted on her website.<br /><br />"The whole fact that the Public Health Service was very aware about the ethical problems is very characteristic of American international health policy at the time, which was very condescending to other countries," Brown said. <br /><br />It turns out that a physician at the Public Health Service, Dr. John C. Cutler, participated in both the Guatemala and the Tuskegee experiments. Cutler came to the Tuskegee project in the 1960s, according to Reverby, and continued to defend it even in the 1990s, long after it ended. Cutler died in 2003 at age 87.<br /><br />The Guatemala syphilis research involved 696 subjects who came from the Guatemala National Penitentiary, army barracks and the National Mental Health Hospital, according to Reverby's research. These subjects did not give direct permission to participate. Instead, the authorities signed them up. There were also 772 patients exposed to gonorrhea and 142 subjects exposed to chancres, according to a CDC report. <br /><br />Unlike the Tuskegee project, these participants were given the diseases as part of the experiment. <br /><br />"The doctors used prostitutes with the disease to pass it to the prisoners (sexual visits were allowed by law in Guatemalan prisons) and then did direct inoculations made from syphilis bacteria poured onto the men's penises or on forearms and faces that were slightly abraded when the 'normal exposure' produced little disease, or in a few cases through spinal punctures," Reverby wrote. <br /><br />Many people wrongly believe that the Tuskegee study involved injecting subjects with syphilis, according to a 2008 study led by Ralph Katz of the NYU College of Dentistry. His survey found that more than 60 percent of both whites and blacks said they believed study subjects were injected with syphilis. <br /><br />Another important difference between the studies is that the subjects in Guatemala received penicillin after getting the sexually transmitted disease, Reverby wrote, although it's not clear whether everyone was cured. <br /><br />In Tuskegee, on the other hand, the Public Health Service made sure that the subjects with syphilis did not get treatment from elsewhere. During World War II, draft boards agreed to lift the requirement of syphilis treatment for study participants, according to Tuskegee University. <br /><br />Tuskegee study subjects continued to be excluded when the Public Health Service began giving other patients penicillin to treat syphilis in 1943. The agency set up Rapid Treatment Centers to treat the disease in 1947, helping to lower the overall syphilis rate; study subjects were still not treated, according to the CDC.<br /><br />The Guatemalan study ended when "it proved difficult to transfer the disease and other priorities at home seemed more important," according to Reverby's paper. Cutler was told go back to the United States, she said. There he went on to work on an inoculation study at Sing Sing Prison in Ossining, New York, from 1953 to 1956, and later to Tuskegee. As for the participants in the Guatemalan study, there was some follow-up laboratory testing and observation until the early 1950s, the CDC said. <br /><br />Tuskegee experiments stopped on a more dramatic note: in 1972 when Peter Buxton, who also worked for the Public Health Service, relayed information about the experiment to a reporter. By that time, 28 men had died of syphilis and 100 others had died of related complications. As a result of the experiment, at least 40 wives contracted syphilis and 19 children had it from birth. <br /><br />The exposure of the study sparked congressional hearings in 1973 that led to a total overhaul of the Health, Education and Welfare rules concerning work with human subjects. A class-action lawsuit resulted in an out-of-court settlement of $10 million, with the U.S. government promising lifetime medical benefits and burial services to all study subjects still living. This program later expanded to include wives, widows and children.<br /><br />President Bill Clinton publicly apologized to the victims of the Tuskegee experiments in an emotional speech in 1997, in which he said the study was shameful and racist.<br /><br />"The people who ran the study at Tuskegee diminished the stature of man by abandoning the most basic ethical precepts. They forgot their pledge to heal and repair. They had the power to heal the survivors and all the others and they did not. Today, all we can do is apologize," he said at a ceremony at the White House.<br /><br />Because of the ethical guidelines that all research institutions must follow, these kinds of studies would not happen in the United States today, Brown said. <br /><br />http://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/10/01/guatemala.syphilis.tuskegee/index.html?hpt=SbinX-1http://www.blogger.com/profile/14053054277290085475noreply@blogger.com