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Congratulations to both the Peoples National Party and the Jamaica Labour Party.
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X-1
Consistent with the results of the Phantom Researcher (X-1's) predictive scientific research findings posted in this blog on Febuary 6, 2011 and July 9, 2011, the Peoples National Party (PNP) has exacted a decisive election victory in Jamaica's 2011 General Election over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
Post Election data analysis will conclude that, when X-1's research findings are compared with the three standard Pollsters (Johnson, Anderson and Boxill) only one (X-1) can claim valid and reliable SPOT-ON-NESS.
X-1 stated in July of 2011 that their (Standard Pollsters) findings/results will be measured on how close (convergence) their tabular Dionysian methodology comes to the very reliable Apollonian methodology used by X-1. See quote below.
"Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’" (Phantom Researcher X-1, July 9, 2011 Source: http://opinionpollingjamstyle.blogspot.com/2011/07/jamaica-election-2012-stone-methodology.html)
Chart # 3 Validity and Reliability Pyramid
................/ \
............./.X-1. \1st
........../ ...........\
......./..................\
..../........anderson......\ 2nd
../ .........johnson..........\ 3rd
/ ............ boxill .............\ 4th
_______________________________
X-1 Original Research Conclusion:
"Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
...................0....... (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
X-1
"11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter." Source: http://opinionpollingjamstyle.blogspot.com/2011_11_01_archive.html
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BLOWOUT: PNP 41 - JLP 22
Published: Friday | December 30, 2011 41 Comments
Portia Simpson-Miller
People's National Party supporters in ecstasy at the party's Old Hope Road, St Andrew, headquarters on learning of their victory in the polls last night. - Ian Allen/Photographer
Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader, outgoing Prime Minister Andrew Holness (centre), and (from right) his wife Juliet, party General Secretary Aundré Franklin, former Senator Arthur Williams and MP designate for West Kingston, Desmond McKenzie, face the media at the JLP's Belmont Road headquarters last night. - Gladstone Taylor/Photographer1 2 3 >
by Daraine Luton, Senior Staff Reporter
Defying opinion polls that suggested yesterday's general election was too close to call, the People's National Party (PNP) secured a stunning victory, winning 41 of the 63 seats in the House of Representatives.
The party gained 53 per cent of the popular vote.
The result will propel the PNP's president, Portia Simpson Miller, back to the premiership, a job she held for 18 months and lost a mere four years ago when her party was prised from government after more than 18 years in office.
In fact, the defeat of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) meant the first time since the advent of universal adult suffrage, nearly seven decades ago, that an administration has been chucked out after a single term - an outcome that will likely lead to much soul-searching within the organisation.
Indeed, in yesterday's election, several leading JLP figures, including Cabinet ministers Robert Montague and Clive Mullings, spectacularly lost their parliamentary seats
"I want to thank the prime minister who called earlier to congratulate me, and he was very gracious," Simpson Miller said.
"I am humbled by the support of the Jamaican people and I ask you to ensure that you greet JLP supporters with love."
Shaping future together
Simpson Miller said her team would be working with all Jamaicans as one Jamaican family "as we shape the future together".
She had special commendation for Arnaldo Brown, Julian Robinson, Damion Crawford, André Hylton and Raymond Pryce - first-time candidates who secured victories.
She also commended candidates who came close to victory, saying "you are winners".
In conceding the election, outgoing prime minister and JLP leader, Andrew Holness, accepted the result as the will of the people and said the party would listen to the voice of the people.
"It is a time of reflection and introspection for the Jamaica Labour Party. We see it as an opportunity to rebuild and, starting tomorrow, we will be rebuilding," a sombre Holness said.
"It is apparent that the people of Jamaica still have concerns about the JLP and we will reflect on that. I wish the new Government well. They will face several challenges, but I hope for the benefit of the country they will do a good job."
He added: "I was privileged to have served in a short time. I really did not have much room. I had to make the decision that we made. I feel good that I have executed the duties of prime minister over the short time to the best of my ability, and I look forward to another opportunity."
Holness was prime minister for just over two months, having been catapulted to the job after the surprise resignation of his predecessor, Bruce Golding, who accepted that the JLP would have little chance of victory with him at the helm.
Confidence lost
Golding lost public confidence over his administration's resistance of the United States' request for the extradition of now-convicted gangster Christopher 'Dudus' Coke, and the hiring of lobbyists to encourage Washington to go soft on the matter.
In its election manifesto, the PNP promised to renegotiate the country's agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), implement a Jamaica Emergency Employment Programme (JEEP) to arrest the problem of unemployment; and renegotiate the contract of the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) to allow for competition in the transmission and distribution of electricity, among others.
It was also the first time that persons were vying for 63 seats in the House of Representatives.
The JLP won the 2007 general election by a razor-thin majority, securing 32 of the 60 seats in the House. The PNP won the other 28.
The PNP had greeted Holness' announcement of election and nomination day, saying the symbolism of the dates meant a lot to leaders of the party. Simpson Miller celebrated her 66th birthday on nomination day, December 12.
"I want to thank Mr Andrew Holness for giving me the best birthday possible that anyone could ever have. And an excellent Christmas gift for the Jamaican people, and a wonderful and beautiful new year," Simpson Miller said after the election date was announced by Holness in Mandeville.
Nomination day was also special for the PNP's campaign director, Dr Peter Phillips, as it marked the 24th anniversary of his marriage to Sandra Minott Phillips while the eve of yesterday's election was his 62nd birthday.
The PNP has been on the election trail for more than a year. It had blasted the JLP government for the handling of the economy and said it had brought shame on Jamaica with its handling of the extradition request for Coke.
All-island tour
In its bid for leadership of the country, the PNP embarked on an all-island tour during which party officials, led by Simpson Miller and 'Star Boy' K.D. Knight, told the country that Bruce Golding was not suitable to continue as prime minister and that the country needed to go to the polls in a general election.
According to Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls, 21 per cent of Jamaicans lined up behind the JLP in June with that number increasing to 26 per cent by November with Holness at the helm.
The last Gleaner-Johnson poll before the election, done on December 17 and 18, found 38 per cent of Jamaicans were prepared to cast their ballot for the PNP, while 36 per cent would vote JLP.
Heading into the election, the PNP was confident that Jamaicans had accepted its message that it was capable of leading a return to sustained economic growth for the country.
The PNP also claimed the turnout at its mass meetings was "overwhelming, demonstrating the fact that the people are ready for a change of Government."
Yesterday's victory added to general election success secured by the PNP in 1955, 1959, 1972, 1976, 1989, 1993, 1997 and 2002.
The JLP won the elections in 1944, 1949, 1962, 1967, 1980, 1983 and 2007.
daraine.luton@gleanerjm.com
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X-1
"2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
Feb 6th, 2011
Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project
I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.
Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
Pureness Parameters
JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 31.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
Operational Variables:
These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
Scaling/Measurement
How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b
published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
2. Absenteeism in Parliament
published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5
4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments
After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010
THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments
Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm
Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.................0....... (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2 Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter."
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