The Influence Variable of Polling

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Acquiescence bias is a category of response bias in which respondents to a survey have a tendency to agree with all the questions or to indicate a positive connotation. Acquiescence is sometimes referred to as "yah-saying" and is the tendency of a respondent to agree with a statement when in doubt. This particularly is in the case of surveys or questionnaires that employ truisms, such as: "It is better to give than to receive" or "Never a lender nor a borrower be".


Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/acquiescence-bias#ixzz1gdLLln9J

Social desirability bias is the tendency of respondents to answer questions in a manner that will be viewed favorably by others. It can take the form of over-reporting good behavior or under-reporting bad behavior. The tendency poses a serious problem with conducting research with self-reports, especially questionnaires. This bias interferes with the interpretation of interpreting average tendencies as well as individual differences

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1. How does the above relate to the Jamaica 2011 Election.

Recent Polling evidences data congregation around the same points of central tendencies i.e. JLP leads but both party remains in a statistical deadheat. Polls are acquising with their results and polling respondents are acquising based on social desirability bias.

Why: The JLP does a very good job as the incumbent with the inherent advantages of forum and media in getting their message out. This message then forms the central 'talking points' of the general populace. Polls then reflect this central tendency.

2. a) Water Melon Effect and b) Self Fulfilling Prophecy polling variable

a) The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side)".



b) A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.



3. Data Gathering and analysis should always be treated with respect regardless of the environment of data gathering or the research known or unknown biases. With respect to the Jamaican election there appears to be three standard polls: Anderson, Boxill and Johnson. All three reflect a central tendency of statistical deadheat with the JLP slightly ahead but the PNP falls within the cone of error.

3a. When the observation outlined in item # 3 is associated with the very potent effect of item #2; Self Fulfilling Prophecy and Water Mellon effect, we then arrive at a point of data congregating at the previously mention point of central tendency. This data congregation is statistically significant, regardless of how the data arrived at this juncture.

4. It would appear that the "JLP's game changer decision" in replacing PM Golding with new PM Holness along with political PR strategies have made an impact on the 'likely' outcome of the election from a data analysis perspectives. However, this position is not static and with 14 days to go, the PNP could effectuate changes to this scenario. However, the present lack of electioneering PR will need to be changed or modified to be more forceful, precise, purposeful and targeted.

5. The PNP precise targeting to reverse the data trend will need to be aimed at the uncommitted and the PNP diehards whom have acquised to the no need to vote as its all over or my vote will not count crowd. These two groups includes some of the data sets on which the Attitudinal analysis is based.


6. With dataset convergence which falls within the cone of sample errors there exist sufficient numbers within the group mentioned in item # 5 which has the potential to make the ultimate difference in the 2011 election result in favour of the PNP, as they would be able to draw numbers from familiar voters or potential voters, but this action needs a strategic and tactical visionary with a budget.

Scientifically, both a self-fulling prophecy variable and water mellon effect variable portrays significance in Election 2011. This significance is acknowledged by the morotorium on polling agreement by both parties as documented below.


7. Could all three pollsters be wrong in their predictions notwithstanding margin of error variable. Yes, absolutely (Dewey vs Truman: see below) and specifically that is why there is a "cone of margin of error". The PNP lagging numbers falls within this cone and mobilization of voters as discussed in item number 6 could be the difference. In this scenario "Margin of Error" would be a hot topic come post election.

If there was ever a time for the polls to be turned upside down, 2011 Election is that time as all the variables are present in this one, the only 'if' is the strategic and tactical engagement of the PNP to accomplish this.


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The Influence of Polls is acknowledge by this historic agreement as documented below.

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"Professor Hopeton Dunn
by Edmond Campbell, Senior Staff Reporter


A HISTORIC pact has been signed among the media, political parties, the Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ) and the Broadcasting Commission to observe a campaign-free period of a full day when no political advertisements will be aired or published by the electronic and print media.
As part of the deal, no opinion-poll results should be released 24 hours ahead of the December 29 general election.
ECJ Chairman Professor Errol Miller hailed the accord as "one small step for the two commissions, one giant step for the country".
As part of the voluntary agreement, the political parties have pledged to halt political broadcasts and campaign advertising from midnight on December 27 in the electronic media and to provide no new campaign ads on the Internet.
No media ads
The print and electronic media have also voluntarily decided to discontinue publishing or airing political broadcasts and media campaign advertisements in a similar time frame just before the start of polling.
"This means that all electronic media organisations will stop carrying political campaign ads from midnight on December 27, through to the opening of polls at 7 a.m. on December 29," chairman of the Broadcasting Commission, Professor Hopeton Dunn, disclosed yesterday.
Addressing journalists during a press briefing hosted jointly by the ECJ and the Broadcasting Commission at the latter's offices on Knutsford Boulevard in New Kingston, Dunn pointed out that the agreement was also binding on affiliates of the political parties.
Giving details, he said the print media was not expected to publish political ads on December 28 and December 29.
He also advised that the political parties and their affiliates were not expected to campaign on social-media networks, such as Facebook and Twitter, during the stipulated hiatus.
The major political parties have also committed not to release the results of new opinion polls or any unscientific opinion surveys to the public within 48 hours of the start of voting in the general election.
No new poll results
"For their part, the media organisations have agreed that the results of such public-opinion polls or unscientific opinion surveys would not be released to the public in the 24-hour period prior to the start of polling in the elections," Dunn added.
On the question of a breach of the agreement, Dunn made it clear that no sanctions have been attached. "It is an honour agreement and we expect it to be implemented in the spirit in which it is voluntarily agreed."
He said the agreement did not include normal editorials and public affairs articles by news organisations.
Miller argued that shame could be equally effective as conviction.
"When you voluntarily agree to something and sign to it, revelation that you have not honoured your word brings a certain amount of shame," he stressed.
edmond.campbell@gleanerjm.com



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JLP surges ahead
Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 88 Comments
Holness 36%
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by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
The big green machine being ridden by recently crowned champion jockey Andrew Holness has surged into the lead, gaining six percentage points in the past month, as the party most likely to win the December 29 general election.
But the heavyweight orange machine, ridden by former champion jockey Portia Simpson Miller, is not yet out of the race and, with two furlongs to go before they hit the finish line, it is still anybody's race.
That's the finding of the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson public-opinion poll conducted islandwide on December 10 and 12.
Johnson's team found that if the election were held today, 31 per cent of the voters would put their 'X' beside the bell, the symbol of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), while a further five per cent of the voters say they would probably vote JLP.
That gives the Holness-led party a solid 36 per cent support.For the People's National Party (PNP), 29 per cent of voters say they would definitely put their 'X' beside its symbol, the head. A further three per cent say they would probably vote for the PNP. That leaves the Simpson Miller-led party with 32 per cent support or four percentage points behind the JLP.With the poll having a sampling error of plus or minus four per cent, the parties are in a statistical dead heat, but what should worry the PNP is that this is the first time it has trailed the JLP in any Gleaner-Johnson poll since 2007.
The PNP's troubles are compounded by the fact that despite its campaigning over the past month, its support has remained at 32 per cent, which the Johnson team found when it tested the pulse of the nation in November.
In the meantime, the JLP has seen its support move from 29 to 36 per cent, a seven-percentage point gain since November.
The undecided population has made the expected decline as the country gets closer to election day, dropping from 13 per cent in November to nine per cent this time around, with all of those persons moving to the JLP.
The persons who say they will not vote also declined by two percentage points in the past month with the JLP again the beneficiary of that switch.
For the persons who say they will vote JLP, 34 per cent say that's because of tradition, 19 per cent say Holness deserves a chance, while 18 per cent say the party is better than the PNP.
An almost equal number of persons (36 per cent) say they will vote PNP because of tradition, 16 per cent say it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country and 10 per cent say the PNP is better than the JLP.
Of the persons who are undecided or will not vote, 24 per cent are not interested in politics, 15 per cent say neither of the two major political parties has helped them as individuals, and a combined 26 per cent say neither the PNP nor the JLP has helped the country and it will make no difference which is running the affairs of the State.
For the pollster Johnson, the latest numbers are consistent with the recent constituency polls that were commissioned by The Gleaner. He argued that the numbers should be cause for concern by the PNP.
"The last two weeks were good for the PNP and bad for the JLP with the JDIP revelations and the US plane controversy, but still this has not been reflected in more persons saying that they will be voting for the PNP," noted Johnson.
The latest poll has a sample size of 1,008 and was conducted in all 63 constituencies across Jamaica.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
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Most Jamaicans want Andrew as PM
Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 49 Comments
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter

Almost 50 per cent of Jamaicans believe they are worse off today than they were in 2007 when the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) was elected to form the government.
But that has not stopped a large plurality of Jamaicans from seeing the JLP as the better party to manage the affairs of state at this time.


A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson has found that 41 per cent of Jamaicans believe the JLP would do the better job of governing the country at this time. Thirty-six per cent of Jamaicans believe the Portia Simpson Miller-led People's National Party (PNP) would do a better job, while 23 per cent are undecided.

The majority of the voters (55 per cent) also believe that JLP leader Andrew Holness deserves to be returned as prime minister after the votes are counted come December 29, while 30 per cent say someone else should get the job.
Of those who say "stick with Andrew", 27 per cent say they have adopted this position because he deserves a chance, 27 per cent say because he is young and 10 per cent admire him for what they say are his good ideas.
The voters who want to see the back of Holness include 24 per cent who say he lacks experience, 12 per cent who say he is too young, 11 per cent who claim he cannot be trusted and 11 per cent who argue that he is the same as former JLP leader Bruce Golding.
Holness also continues to lead Simpson Miller as the person voters believe would do a better job as prime minister in today's Jamaica.
Forty-four per cent of the respondents told the Gleaner-Johnson team they believe Holness would be the better head of government while 35 per cent said Simpson Miller.
The nine percentage point gap between the two is almost unchanged from when the pollster asked a similar question in October.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was conducted on December 10 and 11 in all 63 constituencies. It has a sampling error of plus of minus three per cent and a sample size of 1,008.
Johnson will return to the streets to test the pulse of the nation on one more occasion before the December 29 general election.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
No media ad campaigns, polls after December 27
Published: Thursday | December 15, 2011 2 Comments

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http://history1900s.about.com/cs/trumanharry/a/deweytruman_2.htm

Give 'Em Hell Harry vs. The Polls

The polls, reporters, political writers - they all believed Dewey was going to win by a landslide. On September 9, 1948, Elmo Roper was so confident of a Dewey win that he announced there would be no further Roper Polls on this election. Roper said, "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things."2
Truman was undaunted. He believed that with a lot of hard work, he could get the votes. Though it is usually the contender and not the incumbent that works hard to win the race, Dewey and the Republicans were so confident they were going to win - barring any major faux pas - that they decided to make an extremely low-key campaign.
Truman's campaign was based on getting out to the people. While Dewey was aloof and stuffy, Truman was open, friendly, and seemed one with the people. In order to talk to the people, Truman got in his special Pullman car, the Ferdinand Magellan, and traveled the country. In six weeks, Truman traveled approximately 32,000 miles and gave 355 speeches.3 On this "Whistle-Stop Campaign," Truman would stop at town after town and give a speech, have people ask questions, introduce his family, and shake hands. From his dedication and strong will to fight as an underdog against the Republicans, Harry Truman acquired the slogan, "Give 'em hell, Harry!"