X-1
Mark Wignall would have the 'uninitiated' believe that he is an objective Pollster, nothwithstanding his documented "disgraced polling track record"
I describe Mark as a Newspaper Writer, referring to him as a Journalist would be wholly inaccurate. Now consider his 'storied' article below, then review his latest 'polling project' also below.
You may then choose to scale Mark's degree of biasness on the Likert scale from -10 thru +10. Then you will be in a position to assist Mark in answering the question posed in the title of this blog.
-10______-5_________0________+5_______+10
Bias only Slightly....... Neutral................ Extremely Bias
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Third parties - comic relief or sideshow?
MARK WIGNALL
Thursday, December 08, 2011
To the man and woman at street level, the two main parties that have shared political power since 1944 — the PNP and the JLP — are known more for their warts, boils and unholy alliances with a destructive subculture than they are known for development of the people, the economy and the country's infrastructure.
More than the JLP, the PNP, which in its last run occupied the seat of power for 18 1/2 years between February 1989 to September 2007, should at this time be like Wray and Nephew white rum in that its fame should have preceded it and it should not have to advertise. More than the JLP, it should have created precedence in economic growth as it held power at a time when the region and the rest of the world were enjoying record growth rates. The PNP can make no such claims.
Peter Towsend like EarL Delisser and Mike Williams cannot reasonably expect to win any seats or score anywhere near 5,000 votes islandwide.
Peter Towsend like EarL Delisser and Mike Williams cannot reasonably expect to win any seats or score anywhere near 5,000 votes islandwide. 1/1
More than the JLP, in its over 18 years when it had time to research the criminal underworld, it should have broken the back of organised crime. The PNP can make no such claim, as during its run Jamaica became the murder capital of the world.
During the PNP's run, it engaged in a deliberate swelling of the ranks of the public sector with no commensurate growth in efficiencies. In the area of housing solutions and development of the country's main highways, the PNP stood out. It must be credited with that, but any party which had a run of over 18 years should have had more success stories to its name.
In this the period of blame and counter blame, especially where the world is entering a dangerous phase akin to another recession (as if the first one had been solved) and large corporations are laying off workers, the PNP in opposition now has all the answers which eluded it in its over 18 years in power.
Both political parties first will be going after the most gullible, that is, their robotic diehards. In the hope that we have a constituency of politically sophisticated people who have never allied themselves to anything but policy successes, both the JLP and the PNP will be hoping to snare those after.
Are there legitimate policy solutions to be found in the ranks of the third parties? Betty Ann Blaine's NNC seems to believe that with God all things are possible, so her possibilities are to be found in her exhortation to the people not to vote until a raft of problems are solved. Which is probably her way of saying that her party is nowhere near ready, so the people should wait another 20 years until it is.
I congratulate the NDM and the Marcus Garvey People's Political Party (MGPPP) for throwing their hat in the ring and doing what political parties do - participate in elections. Now I do not believe that president of the NDM, Earl deLisser, Chairman Peter Townsend and Gen Sec Mike Williams reasonably expect to win any seats or score anywhere near 5,000 votes islandwide, but it is a political party and it must make more than its mouth available to the people. Meanwhile, Betty Ann Blaine of the New Nation Coalition (NNC) will be going to the mountaintop to meet with God. I wish her well.
Had this country reached the educational level and the brand of sophistication needed to examine ccritically all aspects of our polity, third parties would have much better chances at the polls. In fact, were that so, even the third parties would take themselves more seriously than they do now.
The leadership of the PNP has been characterised by sound bites and it is rare that Simpson Miller has issued anything other than, "Wi ready" or "Victory, victory". While there are places for that kind of political rant, it ought to come in the back end, after hard policy issues and genuine critiques of the ruling JLP have been made, but she is what she is.
In fact, apart from a few glitches from the new PM Andrew Holness, the platform announcements from the JLP leader have been basically sound, riveted and mostly an invitation to the electorate to examine both parties and make a choice. Meanwhile, what we have been hearing from the PNP leader are words to the effect that Holness will be the shortest-serving PM.
One of my most faithful readers e-mailed me recently. He wrote, "I see from reading the Observer and Gleaner that the election season is in full swing. I read an article in the Observer, December 7 where Mrs Simpson Miller was attacking the credibility of the PM. More of the same.
"How about telling those gathered what the PNP plan is to cure the economic and social ills facing the nation. What is the PNP's solution? But then again, she is from the "old guard" type of politics and clearly is not capable of new political learning.
'While the PNP faced scandals when it was in power, it has never faced a scandal like the "Dudus" affair. If the PNP loses the election, that would be two losses for Mrs Simpson Miller as party leader and that if nothing else would be the signal for her to go. Also, if the JLP wins, it would be an amazing comeback from apparent political doom.
"Mind you, I am a PNP supporter from the time I was young, the glory days of Manley and the 1970s. But the present PNP leadership, especially Mrs Simpson Miller, through to Mr Davies, Mr Pickersgill and Mr Nicholson seem weak and out of touch too; they do not appeal to me at all and I cannot support them in good conscience. Mr Phillips I admire, but as long as Mrs Simpson Miller a 'run tings' I cannot support the PNP."
The prime minister needs to clarify his statement on media bias. Although it is quite clear that the media are mostly PNP friendly, Mr Holness must be aware that during the PNP's long run, it had the time to infiltrate all organisations. Indeed, the PNP even absorbed almost all of the firebrands who were part of Trevor Munroe's now defunct Workers Party of Jamaica (WPJ) in the 1970s and those in the union offshoot of the party, the UAWU.
The JLP begins with more garrisons aligned against it and more of those in the media arrayed in favour of the PNP. In any case, the PM is someone I know and he has never struck me as being hostile to the media. He needs to clarify his position.
As the season heats up, I am heartened by the friendly one-on-one, candidate vs candidate hosted by Nationwide radio. It is a huge difference to the open hostility which was a feature of the 1970s politics. Maybe there is hope for us, after all.
I would love to see Nationwide interview more of those from the third parties so that we can determine if they are anything more than stand-up comedians.
observemark@gmail.com
POST A COMMENT
Mark Forbes
12/8/2011
Wignall, stop behaving like a pol. Danville Walker is one so he expects to benefit from the people's ignorance. You are a journalist so you should benefit from their education. Ja. never experienced the global economic boom for the same reason that 90% of the pop. didn't benefit from the JLP's much vaunted 60's economic growth, which still left the country in debt in 1972: Our leaders, both pol and business, never saw fit to position the country to fully benefit from FDI. Until it is too late.
Mark Forbes
12/8/2011
Wignall, your bias is so overwhelming that the JLP should see it as cancelling out the bias they see in all other parts of the media. If it wasn't so serious it would be laughable to see you now arguing that the JLP is the lesser evil, when 4 short years ago they were the ideal. Seeing as how you clearly recognise the downward path of the JLP, shouldn't you be grading on a scale? If they win the election you are going to need one in 2016. Lesser will not do then, it will have to be degrees.
mango brains
12/8/2011
Wignall has no credibility whatsoever. Does he try to give a balanced presentation of the gains and setbacks during the PNP's tenure? No. Just rubbish.
What about a balanced look at the JLP's four years? Nothing but propaganda.
I guess he's towing the line of the newspaper. But he certainly doesn't deserve any respect. The other issue is that his writing isn't funny or entertaining. Nothing is wrong with having your biased perspective, but at least write well. All the quoting of readers is dumb.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/Third-parties---comic-relief-or-sideshow_10342828#ixzz1fzBpN4W8
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Battle for Central Manchester heats up
JLP poll suggests Walker making inroads, PNP canvass says Bunting has a clear lead
BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver.com
Sunday, December 04, 2011
NOT three weeks after formally announcing his candidacy as the JLP's man in Central Manchester, Danville Walker is said to be making serious inroads into the constituency which has been held by the PNP's Peter Bunting since 2007.
It was a flu-plagued Walker who spoke to the Sunday Observer over a week ago, his illness, a testament, he claimed, to the fact that he hasn't left the constituency since his formal entry to politics and that he had been trodding the hills and valleys of the cool climes of Manchester continuously.
Danville Walker campaigning in Manchester last week.
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"My job is to run as hard as I can and don't look back. I just run the race and hope that I win when I reach the finish line," said Walker.
That race, according to his party, is paying dividends already.
The results of an internal poll conducted early last month by the JLP claim that more persons in key sections of the constituency, including traditional PNP strongholds, are showing strong support for the JLP newcomer compared to the PNP's Bunting.
The survey, a copy of which was obtained by the Sunday Observer, was conducted between November 5 and 9 across 22 communities in all four electoral divisions in the constituency, namely:
* Bellefield - 5 communities - 86 interviews;
* Knockpatrick - 5 communities - 112 interviews;
* Royal Flat - 5 communities - 126 interviews; and
* Mandeville - 7 communities - 126 interviews
Commissioned pollster, Mark 'Rice & Peas' Wignall, used a team of five interviewers and interviewed a total of 450 voting age adults in the constituency. Those interviewed (52 per cent male, 48 per cent female) were said to be a close match in terms of the age and occupational profile of voters in the constituency.
According to the survey, the sample margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The survey shows that in Knockpatrick, 42 per cent of voters said they would give their vote to the JLP, while 40 per cent said they would give it to the PNP. Twenty-one per cent refused to say.
In Royal Flat, the breakdown, according to the JLP internal poll, was 44 per cent in favour of the JLP and 40 per cent for the PNP, while 16 per cent refused to say.
In the capital of Manchester, the PNP appeared to have a slight lead in terms of support, with 41 per cent of voters saying they would give the nod to the Opposition, while 40 per cent said they preferred to vote for the ruling JLP. Nineteen per cent declined to state who their preference was.
In Bunting's stronghold of Bellefield, the JLP appeared to have made the least inroads, garnering 32 per cent of voter support there, compared to the PNP's 47 per cent.Walker admitted during a subsequent interview with the Sunday Observer that his plan for this particular area had not been as successful as he had wished, but nonetheless declared he had significant support even there.
"The polls show in the PNP stronghold of Bellefield, they (the PNP) are a little stronger than us, but we don't care, we will work hard in Bellefield also," said Walker. "Support is there too, the support is growing. The trick is to get them to the polls," said the JLP challenger for the Central Manchester seat.
"Mr Bunting clearly believes he is the only person with common sense. The electorate are not as dumb as he feels they are," said Walker derisively.
He insisted that most of the grave problems facing the electorate in the constituency he seeks to lead failed to improve under Bunting who, he suggested, needs to have his hand held by more experienced PNP officials.
"After four years in the seat, you have to go for John Junor... to run for your mama, John Junor, to come hold your hand while you walk through your constituency...," Walker taunted, alluding to claims that the MP has not been a regular sight in some areas; something the JLP internal poll also points to:
"His (Bunting) performance ratings are consistent with MPs who fail to visit their constituencies often. His 'good' ratings are 38 per cent while his 'poor' ratings are 49 per cent. It ought to be said that Bunting's good ratings are somewhat better than this researcher has seen in polls in three constituencies," read the JLP survey summary.
But Bunting, when contacted for comment, dismissed Walker's statement about needing Junor's help.
"That's just petty. John Junor maintains a practice in the constituency, has maintained one for the last four years. He is the parish campaign co-ordinator for the PNP and that's why he is there," said Bunting.
"I welcome his participation in the campaign and we work together as a team and that is how the PNP operates."
Junor corroborated this in a subsequent call to the Sunday Observer, comparing his role with Bunting to that being played by former JLP general secretary Karl Samuda for Walker in the constituency.
Walker also took additional shots at his opponent declaring that Bunting seemed to be in a race to ascend to the leadership of the Opposition party, with the constituents suffering as a result.
"Mr Bunting is in a leadership race. I want to make sure he has all the time in the world to concentrate on that leadership race," he said.
But Bunting dismissed the assertion. "That is just a shallow attempt to create some division within the PNP and I won't dignify the comment with a further response," he said.
However, Walker said the difficulty his opponent has is trying to convince the constituents that another four years with him at the helm will be any different than the previous years. Plus, he said, Bunting is up against a candidate that knows how to work, harkening back to his public sector stints as director of elections and commissioner of customs and his image as a man who gets the job done.
The survey also indicated that "35 per cent of respondents see it as a 'good move' for Walker to be running on a JLP ticket. This is supported almost equally by swing voters, the uncommitted, and likely JLP voters. Twenty-four per cent see it as a 'bad move', but expected. That is mostly supported by those likely to vote for the PNP."
The survey seems to back Walker up on this with 31 per cent of those polled in the constituency recorded as having a favourable view of him as a former head of the Electoral Office of Jamaica. Overall, 31 per cent of respondents have a favourable view of him. Thirty-six per cent of the uncommitted have a favourable view of him, while 40 per cent of JLP voters have similar views.
Although Walker enjoys a high profile nationally, the jury is still out in the constituency in terms of making a definitive judgement of him, the survey said.
Those who have expressed an unfavourable view of him (11 per cent) are, in the main, strong PNP voters/supporters who allege that he assisted in stealing the election for the JLP in 2007 and that he is untrustworthy.
Bunting was confident that he has every possibility of eradicating any bounce the JLP may have recently seen.
"The Labour Party in the constituency would have got their bounce from two things — from the changing of the prime minister and the getting of a candidate which they hadn't had for some time," he said. "Those two things would have given them a bounce in late October, whenever those changes took place. My expectation is that by the time the elections are held that would have dissipated... I don't think there is much more bounce that they are going to get.
He sought to pour cold water on the JLP's mass meeting planned for this evening in Mandeville square where Prime Minister Holness is expected to announce the election date.
"This meeting is just about the JLP trucking in or busing in a whole heap of people from across the island, so really this is not going to reflect the Central Manchester crowd," he said.
In the meantime, Walker has expressed reservations that with his perceived progress, his opponent's supporters might resort to more serious deterrents than before, referring to the vandalism of his billboard within days of its erection in Mandeville.
"The one concern I have is their desperation, which, in the past, has led them to do desperate things. They started with my billboard," Walker said.
But this elicited a swift retort from Bunting.
"When the Labour Party came though on Wednesday and they destroyed Mykael Phillips' billboard in Mile Gully, why didn't he demand that his side replace the billboard? he asked. "I think he is being hypocritical and that he is being irresponsible with his statements about expectation of sabotage, and I can't help wondering if this is the pretext for more to come.
"We saw what happened in 2007, where my campaign vehicle was riddled with AK-47 bullets and four of my supporters around me were murdered. So I beg him, please don't start creating the environment for that," said Bunting.
The JLP survey, though concluding that the party had great potential to meet its target of digging the incumbent from his seat, also warned the party that it cannot take for granted that the PNP's support in the key constituency has stalled.
"While general polling over the last year would tend to support that trend, in the Central Manchester constituency, the high-profile incumbent in Peter Bunting will be pulling out all stops to retain his seat," the survey said.
That is something that Bunting himself told the Sunday Observer.
"The team that is going to be more effective campaigners between now and the election, and that has the more efficient organisation, will win," he said. "I think we have done our work in terms of building our organisation. Mr Walker has been on the ground now without my being able to be there full time, because I have Parliament, I have the electoral commission, I have committees of Parliament, (plus) all the other responsibilities I have.
"But you know, when I get on the ground when the formal campaign has started, I am going to try to ensure that the people get the message — hold those accountable for issues that are important to them, those who have done nothing to create jobs in the country. Those who have mismanaged the spending, why the roads are bad. All the issues that people have pointed out in the poll. My job is to ensure that I communicate to them that this Government is responsible for that and that is who they must pass judgement on," he said.
Bunting's successes also cannot be dismissed, the summary offers.
"Those who say they intend to vote for him cite 'it's my party', 'tradition' and, to a much lesser extent, Bunting's likeability. In that judgement, he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of his personality's likely influence on the final vote," the survey summarises, noting that organisation and funding will be key, and that these are areas Bunting is noted for.
Junor, as the PNP's campaign director for the central region, said the PNP has completed its own internal canvass of the seat, which shows a clear lead for its candidate.
"We are now in the stage where the analysis indicates a clear lead for Bunting in the constituency, and I'm not talking a clear lead anywhere near his margin for the last time (2007 elections). I'm talking over 1,000 (votes)," said Junor.
"Canvasses done in that constituency have been remarkably accurate," he insisted, asserting that the party has never been as organised in the constituency as it is at this point prior to Nomination Day. He said the PNP had been able to "predict its results within margins of 14-28 per cent".
Notwithstanding the PNP canvass, the JLP internal survey concludes that Walker's perceived competence as a public servant, his ability to get the job done, and the need to give the new Prime Minister Holness a 'try', are essentially the factors that the JLP needs to exploit, along with a superior organisational machinery, if it wants to wrest the Central Manchester seat from the PNP.
The survey team concludes it is a winnable seat for the JLP.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Battle-for-Central-Manchester-heats-up_10308804#ixzz1faO96w8h
X-1:
"Water Mellon Strategy" being used by Mark Wignall. The strategy does have potential, but it maybe unethical considering Mark's position.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Mark Wignall: The Rice & Peas Pollster enters the Race
Publicly disgraced 'Rice and Peas Pollster Mark Wignall' has made a not so grand and predictable entry into the Political electioneering campaign on behalf of JLP'S Danville Walker in Central Manchester.
Mark brings with him the "Mcdonalds polling method". This method is best described as a scientific vote buying methodology. How does this work, see below.
Coincidentially, Professor Gayle recently completed a survey on vote buying with elements of swapping food for votes. This may very well explain why Mark stealthly parachuted into the Manchester race, following closely in the footsteps of his boss Mr Walker who entered bearing gifts of cars for the Police. Wow, some people dislike this type of obvious 'buy and sell' transparency.
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"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'.
As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways:
1) channel social agendas in a certain direction
2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction
3) influence social agendas in a certain direction
4) influence public policy
5) lead the people in a certain direction or
Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design, 'McDonalds polling' with its sole purpose is to yield a certain type of outcome.
The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior.
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Battle for Central Manchester heats up
JLP poll suggests Walker making inroads, PNP canvass says Bunting has a clear lead
BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver.com
Sunday, December 04, 2011
NOT three weeks after formally announcing his candidacy as the JLP's man in Central Manchester, Danville Walker is said to be making serious inroads into the constituency which has been held by the PNP's Peter Bunting since 2007.
It was a flu-plagued Walker who spoke to the Sunday Observer over a week ago, his illness, a testament, he claimed, to the fact that he hasn't left the constituency since his formal entry to politics and that he had been trodding the hills and valleys of the cool climes of Manchester continuously.
Danville Walker campaigning in Manchester last week.
1/2
"My job is to run as hard as I can and don't look back. I just run the race and hope that I win when I reach the finish line," said Walker.
That race, according to his party, is paying dividends already.
The results of an internal poll conducted early last month by the JLP claim that more persons in key sections of the constituency, including traditional PNP strongholds, are showing strong support for the JLP newcomer compared to the PNP's Bunting.
The survey, a copy of which was obtained by the Sunday Observer, was conducted between November 5 and 9 across 22 communities in all four electoral divisions in the constituency, namely:
* Bellefield - 5 communities - 86 interviews;
* Knockpatrick - 5 communities - 112 interviews;
* Royal Flat - 5 communities - 126 interviews; and
* Mandeville - 7 communities - 126 interviews
Commissioned pollster, Mark 'Rice & Peas' Wignall, used a team of five interviewers and interviewed a total of 450 voting age adults in the constituency. Those interviewed (52 per cent male, 48 per cent female) were said to be a close match in terms of the age and occupational profile of voters in the constituency.
According to the survey, the sample margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The survey shows that in Knockpatrick, 42 per cent of voters said they would give their vote to the JLP, while 40 per cent said they would give it to the PNP. Twenty-one per cent refused to say.
In Royal Flat, the breakdown, according to the JLP internal poll, was 44 per cent in favour of the JLP and 40 per cent for the PNP, while 16 per cent refused to say.
In the capital of Manchester, the PNP appeared to have a slight lead in terms of support, with 41 per cent of voters saying they would give the nod to the Opposition, while 40 per cent said they preferred to vote for the ruling JLP. Nineteen per cent declined to state who their preference was.
In Bunting's stronghold of Bellefield, the JLP appeared to have made the least inroads, garnering 32 per cent of voter support there, compared to the PNP's 47 per cent.
Walker admitted during a subsequent interview with the Sunday Observer that his plan for this particular area had not been as successful as he had wished, but nonetheless declared he had significant support even there.
"The polls show in the PNP stronghold of Bellefield, they (the PNP) are a little stronger than us, but we don't care, we will work hard in Bellefield also," said Walker. "Support is there too, the support is growing. The trick is to get them to the polls," said the JLP challenger for the Central Manchester seat.
"Mr Bunting clearly believes he is the only person with common sense. The electorate are not as dumb as he feels they are," said Walker derisively.
He insisted that most of the grave problems facing the electorate in the constituency he seeks to lead failed to improve under Bunting who, he suggested, needs to have his hand held by more experienced PNP officials.
"After four years in the seat, you have to go for John Junor... to run for your mama, John Junor, to come hold your hand while you walk through your constituency...," Walker taunted, alluding to claims that the MP has not been a regular sight in some areas; something the JLP internal poll also points to:
"His (Bunting) performance ratings are consistent with MPs who fail to visit their constituencies often. His 'good' ratings are 38 per cent while his 'poor' ratings are 49 per cent. It ought to be said that Bunting's good ratings are somewhat better than this researcher has seen in polls in three constituencies," read the JLP survey summary.
But Bunting, when contacted for comment, dismissed Walker's statement about needing Junor's help.
"That's just petty. John Junor maintains a practice in the constituency, has maintained one for the last four years. He is the parish campaign co-ordinator for the PNP and that's why he is there," said Bunting.
"I welcome his participation in the campaign and we work together as a team and that is how the PNP operates."
Junor corroborated this in a subsequent call to the Sunday Observer, comparing his role with Bunting to that being played by former JLP general secretary Karl Samuda for Walker in the constituency.
Walker also took additional shots at his opponent declaring that Bunting seemed to be in a race to ascend to the leadership of the Opposition party, with the constituents suffering as a result.
"Mr Bunting is in a leadership race. I want to make sure he has all the time in the world to concentrate on that leadership race," he said.
But Bunting dismissed the assertion. "That is just a shallow attempt to create some division within the PNP and I won't dignify the comment with a further response," he said.
However, Walker said the difficulty his opponent has is trying to convince the constituents that another four years with him at the helm will be any different than the previous years. Plus, he said, Bunting is up against a candidate that knows how to work, harkening back to his public sector stints as director of elections and commissioner of customs and his image as a man who gets the job done.
The survey also indicated that "35 per cent of respondents see it as a 'good move' for Walker to be running on a JLP ticket. This is supported almost equally by swing voters, the uncommitted, and likely JLP voters. Twenty-four per cent see it as a 'bad move', but expected. That is mostly supported by those likely to vote for the PNP."
The survey seems to back Walker up on this with 31 per cent of those polled in the constituency recorded as having a favourable view of him as a former head of the Electoral Office of Jamaica. Overall, 31 per cent of respondents have a favourable view of him. Thirty-six per cent of the uncommitted have a favourable view of him, while 40 per cent of JLP voters have similar views.
Although Walker enjoys a high profile nationally, the jury is still out in the constituency in terms of making a definitive judgement of him, the survey said.
Those who have expressed an unfavourable view of him (11 per cent) are, in the main, strong PNP voters/supporters who allege that he assisted in stealing the election for the JLP in 2007 and that he is untrustworthy.
Bunting was confident that he has every possibility of eradicating any bounce the JLP may have recently seen.
"The Labour Party in the constituency would have got their bounce from two things — from the changing of the prime minister and the getting of a candidate which they hadn't had for some time," he said. "Those two things would have given them a bounce in late October, whenever those changes took place. My expectation is that by the time the elections are held that would have dissipated... I don't think there is much more bounce that they are going to get.
He sought to pour cold water on the JLP's mass meeting planned for this evening in Mandeville square where Prime Minister Holness is expected to announce the election date.
"This meeting is just about the JLP trucking in or busing in a whole heap of people from across the island, so really this is not going to reflect the Central Manchester crowd," he said.
In the meantime, Walker has expressed reservations that with his perceived progress, his opponent's supporters might resort to more serious deterrents than before, referring to the vandalism of his billboard within days of its erection in Mandeville.
"The one concern I have is their desperation, which, in the past, has led them to do desperate things. They started with my billboard," Walker said.
But this elicited a swift retort from Bunting.
"When the Labour Party came though on Wednesday and they destroyed Mykael Phillips' billboard in Mile Gully, why didn't he demand that his side replace the billboard? he asked. "I think he is being hypocritical and that he is being irresponsible with his statements about expectation of sabotage, and I can't help wondering if this is the pretext for more to come.
"We saw what happened in 2007, where my campaign vehicle was riddled with AK-47 bullets and four of my supporters around me were murdered. So I beg him, please don't start creating the environment for that," said Bunting.
The JLP survey, though concluding that the party had great potential to meet its target of digging the incumbent from his seat, also warned the party that it cannot take for granted that the PNP's support in the key constituency has stalled.
"While general polling over the last year would tend to support that trend, in the Central Manchester constituency, the high-profile incumbent in Peter Bunting will be pulling out all stops to retain his seat," the survey said.
That is something that Bunting himself told the Sunday Observer.
"The team that is going to be more effective campaigners between now and the election, and that has the more efficient organisation, will win," he said. "I think we have done our work in terms of building our organisation. Mr Walker has been on the ground now without my being able to be there full time, because I have Parliament, I have the electoral commission, I have committees of Parliament, (plus) all the other responsibilities I have.
"But you know, when I get on the ground when the formal campaign has started, I am going to try to ensure that the people get the message — hold those accountable for issues that are important to them, those who have done nothing to create jobs in the country. Those who have mismanaged the spending, why the roads are bad. All the issues that people have pointed out in the poll. My job is to ensure that I communicate to them that this Government is responsible for that and that is who they must pass judgement on," he said.
Bunting's successes also cannot be dismissed, the summary offers.
"Those who say they intend to vote for him cite 'it's my party', 'tradition' and, to a much lesser extent, Bunting's likeability. In that judgement, he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of his personality's likely influence on the final vote," the survey summarises, noting that organisation and funding will be key, and that these are areas Bunting is noted for.
Junor, as the PNP's campaign director for the central region, said the PNP has completed its own internal canvass of the seat, which shows a clear lead for its candidate.
"We are now in the stage where the analysis indicates a clear lead for Bunting in the constituency, and I'm not talking a clear lead anywhere near his margin for the last time (2007 elections). I'm talking over 1,000 (votes)," said Junor.
"Canvasses done in that constituency have been remarkably accurate," he insisted, asserting that the party has never been as organised in the constituency as it is at this point prior to Nomination Day. He said the PNP had been able to "predict its results within margins of 14-28 per cent".
Notwithstanding the PNP canvass, the JLP internal survey concludes that Walker's perceived competence as a public servant, his ability to get the job done, and the need to give the new Prime Minister Holness a 'try', are essentially the factors that the JLP needs to exploit, along with a superior organisational machinery, if it wants to wrest the Central Manchester seat from the PNP.
The survey team concludes it is a winnable seat for the JLP.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Battle-for-Central-Manchester-heats-up_10308804#ixzz1faO96w8h
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Vote-buying intensifies, survey finds
Some Jamaicans said selling their franchise for mackerel and rice
BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver
Sunday, December 04, 2011
DESPITE a recent wave of rejection of vote-buying by candidates running for seats in the upcoming general election, Jamaicans are still selling their votes; in some cases for as little as $500, a new study has found.
University of the West Indies anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle, in a 'snapshot' study done between November 23 and 30, 2011, canvassed the opinions of 240 young men and women in urban and rural Jamaica across 12 parishes, including 27 constituencies.
Supporters of the ruling Jamaica Labour Party at their annual conference this year and supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party at this year’s annual conference.
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The respondents were grouped by age and geography with 30 rural males between 18 and 34 years old and 30 rural males over the age of 35 interviewed. Thirty urban males between 18 and 34, and 30 urban males over 35 were also surveyed. The same features distinguished female respondents, ie 30 rural females 18 to 34 years old and 30 rural females over the age of 35 were included in the survey. Also, 30 urban females 18 to 34 years and 30 urban females older than 35 years were surveyed.
The surveyors asked the respondents the following questions:
1. Have you ever witnessed persons receiving gifts or money from politicians at election time?
2. What do they normally receive?
3. When was the last time you witnessed such activities?
They were also asked to say which of the following applied to them regarding receiving gifts from politicians at election time:
* Yes, I have, but it never affected the way I voted.
* Yes, I have, and to tell the truth, it affected the way I voted.
* Yes, I have, because none of them is any different and so I have voted for the one that pays me.
* I would vote for anyone who pays me; why not?
* I would take money from a politician, but it would not affect my vote.
* No, I have never done so.
* No, I have never done so, and never will.
The UWI anthropologist declined to reveal which 27 constituencies were surveyed for what he said were ethical reasons. However, of the island's 14 parishes, the study only excluded Hanover and St Elizabeth for reasons of access. It features opinions canvassed from persons in urban (town clusters) of Kingston, St Catherine (Portmore, Spanish Town) and St James (Montego Bay). Persons from rural town clusters in Westmoreland, St Ann, St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Manchester, Clarendon and Trelawny were also polled.
The research team, he said, found there was evidence of vote-buying in almost all of the 27 constituencies canvassed.
"The shocking finding is that only one of the 27 constituencies provided no evidence of vote-buying... So widespread is the practice that in some constituencies the team interviewed less than 10 persons conveniently, and a third of these persons had experienced vote-buying. Note that more than a third (88 of 240) of the sample has experienced direct face-to-face vote-buying," said Gayle.
The data also suggest that the poorer and more desperate the people of the constituency are, the cheaper their votes can be bought.
"Several persons in the inner cities received no more than $500, though the two modal receipts were $2,000 and $5,000. The poor were also very likely to be trapped with food. In some cases their package never amounted to more than $1,000. There were a few, however, who received as much as 50 pounds of rice, along with (tinned) mackerel," said the anthropologist.
"The poor were also likely to receive phone cards and even mattresses. The rural poor were very likely to be baited with livestock, seeds and fertiliser. In a few cases, both rural and urban near-poor were drawn by construction material. A few received vouchers of $20,000 and $40,000 which they could take to specific hardware stores. These were told to the researchers who called to verify that the data was accurate."
Again, Dr Gayle declined to divulge the name of these businesses for what he termed ethical reasons.
However, he noted that the data suggest a more deadly practice persists; the exchange of guns for votes, a feature of violent elections in the 1970s and 80s. Some of those surveyed said they had recently witnessed this.
"... three young men were seen demanding a gun from the MP and were witnessed collecting them at later dates. It is important to note that two of these guns were distributed only weeks ago, suggesting that politicians are still in the business of distributing guns to inner-city youth. In these latter cases, the respondent explained that they saw the youth begging for the gun and also saw when a car turned up with a package to give the youth. In one case, the youth pulled a 9mm Glock pistol only minutes after the delivery was made and publicly boasted that his MP was for real.
"Him a di real big man. Look pon what him send for me. Now mi can go look some food," the young man is reported as saying.
The vote-buying has also intensified as campaigning accelerated ahead of the pending poll over the past few months, Gayle said. The number of persons who have witnessed blatant vote-buying has also increased.
"If we add the vote-buying activities of the weeks of November 13-19 and the week of November 20-26 with the month of October and month of November (other than those two very active weeks in November that are isolated) we get a sum of 52 cases witnessed," Dr Gayle noted.
"This represents 59 per cent of all cases. This period (October and November 2011) represents a period of very aggressive political campaigning. The second most popular period was 2007, the last election. While the data cannot be compared, it tells us a story that vote-buying is current and critical in the campaigning strategy of our political parties. The continuous distribution of guns by a few politicians suggests that politicians will try to gain votes in Jamaica by any means necessary, if no serious sanctions are applied to reduce vote-buying," he said.
Dr Gayle's research also showed vote-buyers preyed on the poor. Hence, of the 88 persons who had witnessed vote-buying, 45 per cent were poor. But the anthropologist noted that the near-poor (lower middle classes) and the middle and upper class are not immune.
"As one explained, 'I have never seen it in my community, but at my workplace'. Fifty-three per cent (47 of the 88 who witnessed vote-purchasing) were males, suggesting that gender is not important here. The same proportion of persons was between the age of 18 and 34, that means age is also not important in determining if one witnesses the practice. This is because the practice is very widespread," Gayle concluded.
According to Gayle, "the practice of vote-buying in Jamaica is so extensive that it has become a part of culture and even entertainment at election times".
"In fact, many Jamaicans have even created a rationale for taking bribes at election times. They see it as an act of justice — their chance to get back some of the funds corrupt politicians took from the public purse," he said.
He pointed to what one rural respondent told researchers: "We know that they tief our money and pretend that is private sector give it to them. We join the game too. Anybody offer me money I take it, but they are not getting my vote. It is justice and in fact it is part of the entertainment in this community as elections approach".
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Vote-buying-intensifies--survey-finds_10308099#ixzz1faN8fTEU
Mark brings with him the "Mcdonalds polling method". This method is best described as a scientific vote buying methodology. How does this work, see below.
Coincidentially, Professor Gayle recently completed a survey on vote buying with elements of swapping food for votes. This may very well explain why Mark stealthly parachuted into the Manchester race, following closely in the footsteps of his boss Mr Walker who entered bearing gifts of cars for the Police. Wow, some people dislike this type of obvious 'buy and sell' transparency.
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"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'.
As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways:
1) channel social agendas in a certain direction
2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction
3) influence social agendas in a certain direction
4) influence public policy
5) lead the people in a certain direction or
Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design, 'McDonalds polling' with its sole purpose is to yield a certain type of outcome.
The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior.
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Battle for Central Manchester heats up
JLP poll suggests Walker making inroads, PNP canvass says Bunting has a clear lead
BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver.com
Sunday, December 04, 2011
NOT three weeks after formally announcing his candidacy as the JLP's man in Central Manchester, Danville Walker is said to be making serious inroads into the constituency which has been held by the PNP's Peter Bunting since 2007.
It was a flu-plagued Walker who spoke to the Sunday Observer over a week ago, his illness, a testament, he claimed, to the fact that he hasn't left the constituency since his formal entry to politics and that he had been trodding the hills and valleys of the cool climes of Manchester continuously.
Danville Walker campaigning in Manchester last week.
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"My job is to run as hard as I can and don't look back. I just run the race and hope that I win when I reach the finish line," said Walker.
That race, according to his party, is paying dividends already.
The results of an internal poll conducted early last month by the JLP claim that more persons in key sections of the constituency, including traditional PNP strongholds, are showing strong support for the JLP newcomer compared to the PNP's Bunting.
The survey, a copy of which was obtained by the Sunday Observer, was conducted between November 5 and 9 across 22 communities in all four electoral divisions in the constituency, namely:
* Bellefield - 5 communities - 86 interviews;
* Knockpatrick - 5 communities - 112 interviews;
* Royal Flat - 5 communities - 126 interviews; and
* Mandeville - 7 communities - 126 interviews
Commissioned pollster, Mark 'Rice & Peas' Wignall, used a team of five interviewers and interviewed a total of 450 voting age adults in the constituency. Those interviewed (52 per cent male, 48 per cent female) were said to be a close match in terms of the age and occupational profile of voters in the constituency.
According to the survey, the sample margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The survey shows that in Knockpatrick, 42 per cent of voters said they would give their vote to the JLP, while 40 per cent said they would give it to the PNP. Twenty-one per cent refused to say.
In Royal Flat, the breakdown, according to the JLP internal poll, was 44 per cent in favour of the JLP and 40 per cent for the PNP, while 16 per cent refused to say.
In the capital of Manchester, the PNP appeared to have a slight lead in terms of support, with 41 per cent of voters saying they would give the nod to the Opposition, while 40 per cent said they preferred to vote for the ruling JLP. Nineteen per cent declined to state who their preference was.
In Bunting's stronghold of Bellefield, the JLP appeared to have made the least inroads, garnering 32 per cent of voter support there, compared to the PNP's 47 per cent.
Walker admitted during a subsequent interview with the Sunday Observer that his plan for this particular area had not been as successful as he had wished, but nonetheless declared he had significant support even there.
"The polls show in the PNP stronghold of Bellefield, they (the PNP) are a little stronger than us, but we don't care, we will work hard in Bellefield also," said Walker. "Support is there too, the support is growing. The trick is to get them to the polls," said the JLP challenger for the Central Manchester seat.
"Mr Bunting clearly believes he is the only person with common sense. The electorate are not as dumb as he feels they are," said Walker derisively.
He insisted that most of the grave problems facing the electorate in the constituency he seeks to lead failed to improve under Bunting who, he suggested, needs to have his hand held by more experienced PNP officials.
"After four years in the seat, you have to go for John Junor... to run for your mama, John Junor, to come hold your hand while you walk through your constituency...," Walker taunted, alluding to claims that the MP has not been a regular sight in some areas; something the JLP internal poll also points to:
"His (Bunting) performance ratings are consistent with MPs who fail to visit their constituencies often. His 'good' ratings are 38 per cent while his 'poor' ratings are 49 per cent. It ought to be said that Bunting's good ratings are somewhat better than this researcher has seen in polls in three constituencies," read the JLP survey summary.
But Bunting, when contacted for comment, dismissed Walker's statement about needing Junor's help.
"That's just petty. John Junor maintains a practice in the constituency, has maintained one for the last four years. He is the parish campaign co-ordinator for the PNP and that's why he is there," said Bunting.
"I welcome his participation in the campaign and we work together as a team and that is how the PNP operates."
Junor corroborated this in a subsequent call to the Sunday Observer, comparing his role with Bunting to that being played by former JLP general secretary Karl Samuda for Walker in the constituency.
Walker also took additional shots at his opponent declaring that Bunting seemed to be in a race to ascend to the leadership of the Opposition party, with the constituents suffering as a result.
"Mr Bunting is in a leadership race. I want to make sure he has all the time in the world to concentrate on that leadership race," he said.
But Bunting dismissed the assertion. "That is just a shallow attempt to create some division within the PNP and I won't dignify the comment with a further response," he said.
However, Walker said the difficulty his opponent has is trying to convince the constituents that another four years with him at the helm will be any different than the previous years. Plus, he said, Bunting is up against a candidate that knows how to work, harkening back to his public sector stints as director of elections and commissioner of customs and his image as a man who gets the job done.
The survey also indicated that "35 per cent of respondents see it as a 'good move' for Walker to be running on a JLP ticket. This is supported almost equally by swing voters, the uncommitted, and likely JLP voters. Twenty-four per cent see it as a 'bad move', but expected. That is mostly supported by those likely to vote for the PNP."
The survey seems to back Walker up on this with 31 per cent of those polled in the constituency recorded as having a favourable view of him as a former head of the Electoral Office of Jamaica. Overall, 31 per cent of respondents have a favourable view of him. Thirty-six per cent of the uncommitted have a favourable view of him, while 40 per cent of JLP voters have similar views.
Although Walker enjoys a high profile nationally, the jury is still out in the constituency in terms of making a definitive judgement of him, the survey said.
Those who have expressed an unfavourable view of him (11 per cent) are, in the main, strong PNP voters/supporters who allege that he assisted in stealing the election for the JLP in 2007 and that he is untrustworthy.
Bunting was confident that he has every possibility of eradicating any bounce the JLP may have recently seen.
"The Labour Party in the constituency would have got their bounce from two things — from the changing of the prime minister and the getting of a candidate which they hadn't had for some time," he said. "Those two things would have given them a bounce in late October, whenever those changes took place. My expectation is that by the time the elections are held that would have dissipated... I don't think there is much more bounce that they are going to get.
He sought to pour cold water on the JLP's mass meeting planned for this evening in Mandeville square where Prime Minister Holness is expected to announce the election date.
"This meeting is just about the JLP trucking in or busing in a whole heap of people from across the island, so really this is not going to reflect the Central Manchester crowd," he said.
In the meantime, Walker has expressed reservations that with his perceived progress, his opponent's supporters might resort to more serious deterrents than before, referring to the vandalism of his billboard within days of its erection in Mandeville.
"The one concern I have is their desperation, which, in the past, has led them to do desperate things. They started with my billboard," Walker said.
But this elicited a swift retort from Bunting.
"When the Labour Party came though on Wednesday and they destroyed Mykael Phillips' billboard in Mile Gully, why didn't he demand that his side replace the billboard? he asked. "I think he is being hypocritical and that he is being irresponsible with his statements about expectation of sabotage, and I can't help wondering if this is the pretext for more to come.
"We saw what happened in 2007, where my campaign vehicle was riddled with AK-47 bullets and four of my supporters around me were murdered. So I beg him, please don't start creating the environment for that," said Bunting.
The JLP survey, though concluding that the party had great potential to meet its target of digging the incumbent from his seat, also warned the party that it cannot take for granted that the PNP's support in the key constituency has stalled.
"While general polling over the last year would tend to support that trend, in the Central Manchester constituency, the high-profile incumbent in Peter Bunting will be pulling out all stops to retain his seat," the survey said.
That is something that Bunting himself told the Sunday Observer.
"The team that is going to be more effective campaigners between now and the election, and that has the more efficient organisation, will win," he said. "I think we have done our work in terms of building our organisation. Mr Walker has been on the ground now without my being able to be there full time, because I have Parliament, I have the electoral commission, I have committees of Parliament, (plus) all the other responsibilities I have.
"But you know, when I get on the ground when the formal campaign has started, I am going to try to ensure that the people get the message — hold those accountable for issues that are important to them, those who have done nothing to create jobs in the country. Those who have mismanaged the spending, why the roads are bad. All the issues that people have pointed out in the poll. My job is to ensure that I communicate to them that this Government is responsible for that and that is who they must pass judgement on," he said.
Bunting's successes also cannot be dismissed, the summary offers.
"Those who say they intend to vote for him cite 'it's my party', 'tradition' and, to a much lesser extent, Bunting's likeability. In that judgement, he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of his personality's likely influence on the final vote," the survey summarises, noting that organisation and funding will be key, and that these are areas Bunting is noted for.
Junor, as the PNP's campaign director for the central region, said the PNP has completed its own internal canvass of the seat, which shows a clear lead for its candidate.
"We are now in the stage where the analysis indicates a clear lead for Bunting in the constituency, and I'm not talking a clear lead anywhere near his margin for the last time (2007 elections). I'm talking over 1,000 (votes)," said Junor.
"Canvasses done in that constituency have been remarkably accurate," he insisted, asserting that the party has never been as organised in the constituency as it is at this point prior to Nomination Day. He said the PNP had been able to "predict its results within margins of 14-28 per cent".
Notwithstanding the PNP canvass, the JLP internal survey concludes that Walker's perceived competence as a public servant, his ability to get the job done, and the need to give the new Prime Minister Holness a 'try', are essentially the factors that the JLP needs to exploit, along with a superior organisational machinery, if it wants to wrest the Central Manchester seat from the PNP.
The survey team concludes it is a winnable seat for the JLP.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Battle-for-Central-Manchester-heats-up_10308804#ixzz1faO96w8h
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Vote-buying intensifies, survey finds
Some Jamaicans said selling their franchise for mackerel and rice
BY JANICE BUDD Associate Editor — Sunday buddj@jamaicaobserver
Sunday, December 04, 2011
DESPITE a recent wave of rejection of vote-buying by candidates running for seats in the upcoming general election, Jamaicans are still selling their votes; in some cases for as little as $500, a new study has found.
University of the West Indies anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle, in a 'snapshot' study done between November 23 and 30, 2011, canvassed the opinions of 240 young men and women in urban and rural Jamaica across 12 parishes, including 27 constituencies.
Supporters of the ruling Jamaica Labour Party at their annual conference this year and supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party at this year’s annual conference.
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The respondents were grouped by age and geography with 30 rural males between 18 and 34 years old and 30 rural males over the age of 35 interviewed. Thirty urban males between 18 and 34, and 30 urban males over 35 were also surveyed. The same features distinguished female respondents, ie 30 rural females 18 to 34 years old and 30 rural females over the age of 35 were included in the survey. Also, 30 urban females 18 to 34 years and 30 urban females older than 35 years were surveyed.
The surveyors asked the respondents the following questions:
1. Have you ever witnessed persons receiving gifts or money from politicians at election time?
2. What do they normally receive?
3. When was the last time you witnessed such activities?
They were also asked to say which of the following applied to them regarding receiving gifts from politicians at election time:
* Yes, I have, but it never affected the way I voted.
* Yes, I have, and to tell the truth, it affected the way I voted.
* Yes, I have, because none of them is any different and so I have voted for the one that pays me.
* I would vote for anyone who pays me; why not?
* I would take money from a politician, but it would not affect my vote.
* No, I have never done so.
* No, I have never done so, and never will.
The UWI anthropologist declined to reveal which 27 constituencies were surveyed for what he said were ethical reasons. However, of the island's 14 parishes, the study only excluded Hanover and St Elizabeth for reasons of access. It features opinions canvassed from persons in urban (town clusters) of Kingston, St Catherine (Portmore, Spanish Town) and St James (Montego Bay). Persons from rural town clusters in Westmoreland, St Ann, St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Manchester, Clarendon and Trelawny were also polled.
The research team, he said, found there was evidence of vote-buying in almost all of the 27 constituencies canvassed.
"The shocking finding is that only one of the 27 constituencies provided no evidence of vote-buying... So widespread is the practice that in some constituencies the team interviewed less than 10 persons conveniently, and a third of these persons had experienced vote-buying. Note that more than a third (88 of 240) of the sample has experienced direct face-to-face vote-buying," said Gayle.
The data also suggest that the poorer and more desperate the people of the constituency are, the cheaper their votes can be bought.
"Several persons in the inner cities received no more than $500, though the two modal receipts were $2,000 and $5,000. The poor were also very likely to be trapped with food. In some cases their package never amounted to more than $1,000. There were a few, however, who received as much as 50 pounds of rice, along with (tinned) mackerel," said the anthropologist.
"The poor were also likely to receive phone cards and even mattresses. The rural poor were very likely to be baited with livestock, seeds and fertiliser. In a few cases, both rural and urban near-poor were drawn by construction material. A few received vouchers of $20,000 and $40,000 which they could take to specific hardware stores. These were told to the researchers who called to verify that the data was accurate."
Again, Dr Gayle declined to divulge the name of these businesses for what he termed ethical reasons.
However, he noted that the data suggest a more deadly practice persists; the exchange of guns for votes, a feature of violent elections in the 1970s and 80s. Some of those surveyed said they had recently witnessed this.
"... three young men were seen demanding a gun from the MP and were witnessed collecting them at later dates. It is important to note that two of these guns were distributed only weeks ago, suggesting that politicians are still in the business of distributing guns to inner-city youth. In these latter cases, the respondent explained that they saw the youth begging for the gun and also saw when a car turned up with a package to give the youth. In one case, the youth pulled a 9mm Glock pistol only minutes after the delivery was made and publicly boasted that his MP was for real.
"Him a di real big man. Look pon what him send for me. Now mi can go look some food," the young man is reported as saying.
The vote-buying has also intensified as campaigning accelerated ahead of the pending poll over the past few months, Gayle said. The number of persons who have witnessed blatant vote-buying has also increased.
"If we add the vote-buying activities of the weeks of November 13-19 and the week of November 20-26 with the month of October and month of November (other than those two very active weeks in November that are isolated) we get a sum of 52 cases witnessed," Dr Gayle noted.
"This represents 59 per cent of all cases. This period (October and November 2011) represents a period of very aggressive political campaigning. The second most popular period was 2007, the last election. While the data cannot be compared, it tells us a story that vote-buying is current and critical in the campaigning strategy of our political parties. The continuous distribution of guns by a few politicians suggests that politicians will try to gain votes in Jamaica by any means necessary, if no serious sanctions are applied to reduce vote-buying," he said.
Dr Gayle's research also showed vote-buyers preyed on the poor. Hence, of the 88 persons who had witnessed vote-buying, 45 per cent were poor. But the anthropologist noted that the near-poor (lower middle classes) and the middle and upper class are not immune.
"As one explained, 'I have never seen it in my community, but at my workplace'. Fifty-three per cent (47 of the 88 who witnessed vote-purchasing) were males, suggesting that gender is not important here. The same proportion of persons was between the age of 18 and 34, that means age is also not important in determining if one witnesses the practice. This is because the practice is very widespread," Gayle concluded.
According to Gayle, "the practice of vote-buying in Jamaica is so extensive that it has become a part of culture and even entertainment at election times".
"In fact, many Jamaicans have even created a rationale for taking bribes at election times. They see it as an act of justice — their chance to get back some of the funds corrupt politicians took from the public purse," he said.
He pointed to what one rural respondent told researchers: "We know that they tief our money and pretend that is private sector give it to them. We join the game too. Anybody offer me money I take it, but they are not getting my vote. It is justice and in fact it is part of the entertainment in this community as elections approach".
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Vote-buying-intensifies--survey-finds_10308099#ixzz1faN8fTEU
Friday, December 2, 2011
JLP's Political Leadership Competitive Vetting(Not)
"Politicians are often thoroughly vetted. Candidates must undergo thorough evaluation by a team of advisers acting on behalf of the nominee.
The Vetting Process: the team will examine such items as a prospective candidate's finances, personal conduct, intelligence and previous coverage in the media"
X-1:
Competitive vetting usually assures in a confident imposing kinda paradigm that the best and most qualified wo/man gets the job. The reality that the JLP circumvented this established process leaves the best wo/man question up for grabs. The process was not engaged, and the alternative amounts to chior chairing and therefore is not an equivalent substitute for the competitive vetting process. So what you get is what you get, which may in the end be little more than special interest of power brokers.
Using this analysis to evaluate Prime Minister Elect Andrew Holness, it would appear so far based on his utterings (re: the media and patwa) that he may not have been the most qualified to lead at this time. His uttering appear politically inexperienced and lacks tactical maturity.
The Prime Minister's reasoning on "patois" certainly does not reflect scholastic quality and could be intrepreted as disrespectful by linguists.
Prime Minister Holness please take some 'political finishing school lessons' from some of the elder politicans. It just may save you from yourself, THE MEDIA is not your enemy AND SOCIAL MEDIA ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMAICAN REALITY IS NOT AN ALTERNATIVE. The Media do what they do to sell papers and to be relevant. Continuing on this path will erode your 'polling numbers unnaturally.
Cant wait for the debate, I foresee some hiccups along the way.
Media comment immaturity e.g. below.
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"Holness swipes at media
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Friday, December 02, 2011
PRIME Minister and leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Andrew Holness has taken Jamaica's media to task over reportage and comments which he claims were unfavourable and laced with agendas.
Addressing party supporters at a meeting in Swaby's Hope, Manchester Wednesday night, Holness said that he would be relying less on traditional media such as newspapers, radio and television and will instead be using social media such as Facebook and Twitter to convey the party's message.
"Come campaign time much of the information that you will get is not true, some of it will be twisted, some of it will be editorialised, some of it will be twisted for political reasons, but I have some messages to give to you which we can't afford to be twisted. Labourites I want you to understand that this is high-tech time. We not going to depend on one source to carry our message. Labourites as I speak, we are transmitting live on social media, so we communicate directly with the people so that the people can get the message unfiltered, untwisted -- the truth," he said.
The prime minister in his broadside made reference to a television report which he felt was inaccurate, and told the gathering that he personally spoke to the entity's management about the story.
"You going to hear a lot of things that nuh guh so in the media. You see I point out to one of them (in reference to concerns over the television report) a story designed to pour cold water on our campaign," he said.
"We don't need duppy story to frighten the electorate, we don't need rumours to frighten the electorate. Every time they hear something they run to the press and the press tek it. We are a serious party, we have serious business to deal wid, we nuh have time fi Anancy story and foolishness, dem days of politics done," said the party leader to the South Manchester constituents who on election day will be deciding between the JLP's Collin Virgo and the PNP's Michael Peart.
"It is about time that there comes in Jamaica, a leader who is able to speak to the mass of the people and tell them the truth, to jump over the media and go straight to the people because you can't depend on them to carry the message of truth to the people," said Holness.
The party leader also took a swipe at some members of academia and insisted that the time had come for the media and academia to join with the people to explain the nature of the situation confronting Jamaica and the decisions that are needed as the country goes forward.
Despite his claims, Holness emphasised that he doesn't have a problem with media, but wants to hear the truth and also wants the media to put aside "the agendas" and focus on what is in the interest of the people.
The prime minister's comments come as the country's media practitioners participate in Journalism Week which is being observed under the theme 'Justice, Truth be ours Forever: Journalism in a Changing World'.
At the recent launch, president of the Press Association of Jamaica Jenni Campbell highlighted the challenges faced by the local media and emphasised that journalists should continue to uphold the responsibilities of the profession"
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Holness-swipes-at-media_10296205#ixzz1fP39Xl7m
*************
The press, politics and politicians
BARBARA GLOUDON
Friday, December 09, 2011
IT IS A PITY that someone didn't alert our prime minister to a very necessary piece of knowledge for people in his position: "Avoid confrontation with the media. Your energy could be more usefully occupied on pressing matters of moment."
The current kass-kass need not have developed this way. If the PM was convinced that he was not getting a fair deal, then it might have been more effective to have a face-to-face with media heads and let his concern be known. There would be a strong possibility that said media leadership would have listened respectfully then pointed out some basic truths as they see them. "It is not that we don't like you, Sir, but like you, we have to do what we have to do. Our journalists are not required to make you feel good. Where there are errors, we will investigate and correct them and we will try to arrive at a mutual understanding of fairness, for that is the most effective way to achieve our goals. Fair enough?"
The PM might or might not have accepted it but at least it might have caused the head of government to think twice before he let himself get carried away by the adulation at two major party gatherings and succumb to the temptation of media-baiting. It is ever so easy to happen. People still talk about how Michael Manley, in 1978 was so incensed at The Gleaner's campaign against him and his government, that he led a crowd of protestors to North Street.
Since his popular name was Joshua, it soon became legend that his intention was to march around the walls of the building until they fell, like in the biblical battle of Jericho, where the original Joshua, in demonstrating his displeasure, sent the city's fortifications tumbling down. The Gleaner's walls did not fall but Mr Manley had to bear the cost to his reputation, accused of being against press freedom, one more unfavourable label which his detractors were only too quick to add. Later, I heard him tell how, on reflection, he would not have done it the same way. It doesn't look good on your epitaph that you didn't support freedom of the press.
OUR PRESENT PM could be complimented at least for not leading an army of vuvuzuela-blowing supporters to flatten the ramparts of Television Jamaica and RJR, major targets of the current disaffection... but the damage was done. Not everyone, with all due respect, can handle a difference of views without translating it into the tribal violence which afflicts us, especially in times like these. While there is no report of the PM advocating violence of any kind, some supporters "leggo" a few distinctive words. Some media personnel are said to have felt threatened.
Whoever decided to tag media workers as guilty of not reporting the facts (the good facts, of course) and guilty also of not revealing the truth — ("our truth"), could have contributed to bodily harm or worse, being inflicted on them. Thankfully it did not go that far. Words did not turn into sticks and stones and anything more lethal, but in the words of one of my numerous ancestral sources, "Yuh nuh fi sorry... yuh nuh fi dweet."
The PM might have added a little kerosene to the fire, according to reports from the Portland meeting, but once again it was no more than talk, and mercifully so, that he came to his senses and softened his stance later, in a speech delivered to the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica.
THE PRESS ASSOCIATION had the guts to speak out strongly, earlier in the week, against what is reported as having taken place at the Manchester and Portland meetings. The PAJ served warning that if the threat of antagonism against media workers continued, the organisation would have no recourse but to bring it to the attention of international organisations which support press freedom. It was not so much a threat as a call to sanity.
When the PM went to speak to the PSOJ Christmas luncheon, he moved to give the assurance that the government was committed to press freedom and the safety of journalists. He proclaimed that his government believes in transparency and balance in reporting and he recommended a pact between government and media. In his view, "transparency and truth could make the current election campaign the best ever since adult suffrage".
This message must be passed also to followers who might have misunderstood the original transmission and got mixed signals about the media. Not everyone is convinced that the storm is over, however. There are still political fanatics who insist that some journalists are against their side and as such, must not be tolerated. The word "bias" has been appropriated as the ultimate accusation, deserving abuse.
The names and e-mail addresses of people in management at certain media houses are said to have been made public. This is not only irresponsible, but downright dangerous. Fanatics everywhere have been known to develop "avenger complex" and take on the role to right wrongs on behalf of those they admire. That we can do without.
As one of the corps of on-air commentators, I can attest to the insecurity of some listeners who, when they feel that there is bias against their point of view or their favourite political idol, can demonstrate serious disrespect and hostility. I'm always reminded at such times that real-real journalism does not reside in sweetie-sweetie media-appreciation events, but in real life where people do not always trust each other.
Let's face it, there's nothing politicians love more than adulation. So long as you are making them look good, it is all right. Look at the unprecedented flood of affirmation which the same media, which is distrusted today, showered on the PM when he began his tenure. But that was yesterday.... The worst thing you can do is present the truth as you see it, but then truth comes in different versions. "What is truth?" it has been asked. "The truth shall set you free," we're told, but who can explain "whose truth"?
CONGRATULATIONS to Jenni Campbell and the rest of the Press Association of Jamaica for the guts to speak out when it was time to do so. Not everybody will agree but if journalists cannot speak on their own behalf, then who can? The profession, on the other hand, must never fail to live up to the highest standards of professionalism. They don't have to like us but they should respect us.
IT IS TIMES like these we recall the high standards set by the late Dr Aggrey Brown who was one of the tireless upholders of professionalism in journalism. The farewell to him at the University Chapel last week Tuesday morning was replete with respect and lessons for learning.
gloudonb@yahoo.com
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/The-press--politics-and-politicians_10354069#ixzz1g4F7KASb
The Vetting Process: the team will examine such items as a prospective candidate's finances, personal conduct, intelligence and previous coverage in the media"
X-1:
Competitive vetting usually assures in a confident imposing kinda paradigm that the best and most qualified wo/man gets the job. The reality that the JLP circumvented this established process leaves the best wo/man question up for grabs. The process was not engaged, and the alternative amounts to chior chairing and therefore is not an equivalent substitute for the competitive vetting process. So what you get is what you get, which may in the end be little more than special interest of power brokers.
Using this analysis to evaluate Prime Minister Elect Andrew Holness, it would appear so far based on his utterings (re: the media and patwa) that he may not have been the most qualified to lead at this time. His uttering appear politically inexperienced and lacks tactical maturity.
The Prime Minister's reasoning on "patois" certainly does not reflect scholastic quality and could be intrepreted as disrespectful by linguists.
Prime Minister Holness please take some 'political finishing school lessons' from some of the elder politicans. It just may save you from yourself, THE MEDIA is not your enemy AND SOCIAL MEDIA ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMAICAN REALITY IS NOT AN ALTERNATIVE. The Media do what they do to sell papers and to be relevant. Continuing on this path will erode your 'polling numbers unnaturally.
Cant wait for the debate, I foresee some hiccups along the way.
Media comment immaturity e.g. below.
____________________________
"Holness swipes at media
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Friday, December 02, 2011
PRIME Minister and leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Andrew Holness has taken Jamaica's media to task over reportage and comments which he claims were unfavourable and laced with agendas.
Addressing party supporters at a meeting in Swaby's Hope, Manchester Wednesday night, Holness said that he would be relying less on traditional media such as newspapers, radio and television and will instead be using social media such as Facebook and Twitter to convey the party's message.
"Come campaign time much of the information that you will get is not true, some of it will be twisted, some of it will be editorialised, some of it will be twisted for political reasons, but I have some messages to give to you which we can't afford to be twisted. Labourites I want you to understand that this is high-tech time. We not going to depend on one source to carry our message. Labourites as I speak, we are transmitting live on social media, so we communicate directly with the people so that the people can get the message unfiltered, untwisted -- the truth," he said.
The prime minister in his broadside made reference to a television report which he felt was inaccurate, and told the gathering that he personally spoke to the entity's management about the story.
"You going to hear a lot of things that nuh guh so in the media. You see I point out to one of them (in reference to concerns over the television report) a story designed to pour cold water on our campaign," he said.
"We don't need duppy story to frighten the electorate, we don't need rumours to frighten the electorate. Every time they hear something they run to the press and the press tek it. We are a serious party, we have serious business to deal wid, we nuh have time fi Anancy story and foolishness, dem days of politics done," said the party leader to the South Manchester constituents who on election day will be deciding between the JLP's Collin Virgo and the PNP's Michael Peart.
"It is about time that there comes in Jamaica, a leader who is able to speak to the mass of the people and tell them the truth, to jump over the media and go straight to the people because you can't depend on them to carry the message of truth to the people," said Holness.
The party leader also took a swipe at some members of academia and insisted that the time had come for the media and academia to join with the people to explain the nature of the situation confronting Jamaica and the decisions that are needed as the country goes forward.
Despite his claims, Holness emphasised that he doesn't have a problem with media, but wants to hear the truth and also wants the media to put aside "the agendas" and focus on what is in the interest of the people.
The prime minister's comments come as the country's media practitioners participate in Journalism Week which is being observed under the theme 'Justice, Truth be ours Forever: Journalism in a Changing World'.
At the recent launch, president of the Press Association of Jamaica Jenni Campbell highlighted the challenges faced by the local media and emphasised that journalists should continue to uphold the responsibilities of the profession"
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Holness-swipes-at-media_10296205#ixzz1fP39Xl7m
*************
The press, politics and politicians
BARBARA GLOUDON
Friday, December 09, 2011
IT IS A PITY that someone didn't alert our prime minister to a very necessary piece of knowledge for people in his position: "Avoid confrontation with the media. Your energy could be more usefully occupied on pressing matters of moment."
The current kass-kass need not have developed this way. If the PM was convinced that he was not getting a fair deal, then it might have been more effective to have a face-to-face with media heads and let his concern be known. There would be a strong possibility that said media leadership would have listened respectfully then pointed out some basic truths as they see them. "It is not that we don't like you, Sir, but like you, we have to do what we have to do. Our journalists are not required to make you feel good. Where there are errors, we will investigate and correct them and we will try to arrive at a mutual understanding of fairness, for that is the most effective way to achieve our goals. Fair enough?"
The PM might or might not have accepted it but at least it might have caused the head of government to think twice before he let himself get carried away by the adulation at two major party gatherings and succumb to the temptation of media-baiting. It is ever so easy to happen. People still talk about how Michael Manley, in 1978 was so incensed at The Gleaner's campaign against him and his government, that he led a crowd of protestors to North Street.
Since his popular name was Joshua, it soon became legend that his intention was to march around the walls of the building until they fell, like in the biblical battle of Jericho, where the original Joshua, in demonstrating his displeasure, sent the city's fortifications tumbling down. The Gleaner's walls did not fall but Mr Manley had to bear the cost to his reputation, accused of being against press freedom, one more unfavourable label which his detractors were only too quick to add. Later, I heard him tell how, on reflection, he would not have done it the same way. It doesn't look good on your epitaph that you didn't support freedom of the press.
OUR PRESENT PM could be complimented at least for not leading an army of vuvuzuela-blowing supporters to flatten the ramparts of Television Jamaica and RJR, major targets of the current disaffection... but the damage was done. Not everyone, with all due respect, can handle a difference of views without translating it into the tribal violence which afflicts us, especially in times like these. While there is no report of the PM advocating violence of any kind, some supporters "leggo" a few distinctive words. Some media personnel are said to have felt threatened.
Whoever decided to tag media workers as guilty of not reporting the facts (the good facts, of course) and guilty also of not revealing the truth — ("our truth"), could have contributed to bodily harm or worse, being inflicted on them. Thankfully it did not go that far. Words did not turn into sticks and stones and anything more lethal, but in the words of one of my numerous ancestral sources, "Yuh nuh fi sorry... yuh nuh fi dweet."
The PM might have added a little kerosene to the fire, according to reports from the Portland meeting, but once again it was no more than talk, and mercifully so, that he came to his senses and softened his stance later, in a speech delivered to the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica.
THE PRESS ASSOCIATION had the guts to speak out strongly, earlier in the week, against what is reported as having taken place at the Manchester and Portland meetings. The PAJ served warning that if the threat of antagonism against media workers continued, the organisation would have no recourse but to bring it to the attention of international organisations which support press freedom. It was not so much a threat as a call to sanity.
When the PM went to speak to the PSOJ Christmas luncheon, he moved to give the assurance that the government was committed to press freedom and the safety of journalists. He proclaimed that his government believes in transparency and balance in reporting and he recommended a pact between government and media. In his view, "transparency and truth could make the current election campaign the best ever since adult suffrage".
This message must be passed also to followers who might have misunderstood the original transmission and got mixed signals about the media. Not everyone is convinced that the storm is over, however. There are still political fanatics who insist that some journalists are against their side and as such, must not be tolerated. The word "bias" has been appropriated as the ultimate accusation, deserving abuse.
The names and e-mail addresses of people in management at certain media houses are said to have been made public. This is not only irresponsible, but downright dangerous. Fanatics everywhere have been known to develop "avenger complex" and take on the role to right wrongs on behalf of those they admire. That we can do without.
As one of the corps of on-air commentators, I can attest to the insecurity of some listeners who, when they feel that there is bias against their point of view or their favourite political idol, can demonstrate serious disrespect and hostility. I'm always reminded at such times that real-real journalism does not reside in sweetie-sweetie media-appreciation events, but in real life where people do not always trust each other.
Let's face it, there's nothing politicians love more than adulation. So long as you are making them look good, it is all right. Look at the unprecedented flood of affirmation which the same media, which is distrusted today, showered on the PM when he began his tenure. But that was yesterday.... The worst thing you can do is present the truth as you see it, but then truth comes in different versions. "What is truth?" it has been asked. "The truth shall set you free," we're told, but who can explain "whose truth"?
CONGRATULATIONS to Jenni Campbell and the rest of the Press Association of Jamaica for the guts to speak out when it was time to do so. Not everybody will agree but if journalists cannot speak on their own behalf, then who can? The profession, on the other hand, must never fail to live up to the highest standards of professionalism. They don't have to like us but they should respect us.
IT IS TIMES like these we recall the high standards set by the late Dr Aggrey Brown who was one of the tireless upholders of professionalism in journalism. The farewell to him at the University Chapel last week Tuesday morning was replete with respect and lessons for learning.
gloudonb@yahoo.com
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/The-press--politics-and-politicians_10354069#ixzz1g4F7KASb
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Attitudinal Polling vs Opinion Polling
Attitudinal Polling Method
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.
The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"
___________________________________
2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research
___________________________________
2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
Feb 6th, 2011
Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project
Author X-1
I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.
Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
Pureness Parameters
JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
Operational Variables:
These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
Scaling/Measurement
How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
Survey Data Inferential Findings
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
(Likert Scaling)
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php
1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5
4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments
After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010
THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments
Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm
Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.
_______________________________
Opinion Polling Method
"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv
Comments:
"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"
***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***
British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!
***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa
__________________________________
STILL OFF COURSE
Published: Tuesday | November 22, 2011 12 Comments
Job hunters sit a test at a government agency. FILE
Jamaicans stay wary as jobs remain most troubling concern
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
Just under half of the people who voted for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the 2007 general election believe the Government has steered the ship of state in the wrong direction.
The vast majority of people have formed this opinion based on the rising unemployment level.
In the meantime, a whopping 80 per cent of the people who voted for the People's National Party (PNP) agree that the country needs to change economic course fast, with the shortage of jobs also being cited as their main reason for concern.
But over the past month, since the swearing in of Andrew Holness as prime minister, there has been a slight decrease in the number of people who believe the country is headed downhill fast.
The latest Gleaner-commiss-ioned Bill Johnson poll has found that little more than six in every 10 Jamaicans (63 per cent) think the country is moving in the wrong direction.
That is a slight improvement from the 66 per cent recorded in October but within the poll's statistical margin of error, which is plus or minus four per cent.
Meanwhile, more than half of the country believes the shortage of jobs is the most pressing problem facing Jamaica at this time.
That represents a jump of 17 per cent in the number of people who see unemployment as the major problem facing the country when the poll was conducted early October.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll - conducted among 1,008 respondents from November 5 to 6 and November 12 in 84 communities across the island - found that only 18 per cent of Jamaicans believe the country is moving in the right direction, while 19 per cent said they did not know.
Crime second-major concern
Concerns about crime have long dominated local opinion polls when people were asked about the most pressing problem facing the country. Those concerns reached a high of 74 per cent of Jamaicans who saw this as the country's major problem in June 2008.
But that started to change in June of this year when the worldwide recession and the subsequent cuts in thousands of jobs moved unemployment to the top of the list.
Since then, with major crimes on the decline, unemployment has topped the last three Gleaner-commissioned Johnson polls to the point where, this time around, twice as many people see the shortage of jobs as the most pressing problem facing the country in comparison to those who place crime in that position.
"We still have some way to go, but I am feeling particularly vindicated and satisfied that the populace is recognising and acknowledging the efforts of the Ministry of National Security in taking back Jamaica from the clutches of the criminals," said Senator Dwight Nelson, minister of national security, in reaction to news that unemployment has overtaken crime as the country's number-one concern.
"The Government had inherited a runaway crime rate when it assumed office just over four years ago. This had resulted in polls over the years highlighting crime as the most serious concern among Jamaicans; but this is no longer so according to the findings of recent polls … ," added Nelson.
Even when the numbers are moved from the national level to the individual communities, eight in every 10 Jamaicans see unemployment as the major problem in their area.
The Government and the Opposition have been at loggerheads for some time over the number of Jamaicans to have lost their jobs since the global recession started.
The Opposition claims that, by its figures, just under 100,000 people have lost their jobs, while the Government says that figure is highly inflated.
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica, which is the official agency to publish unemployment numbers, has delayed the publication because it said it was working on the national census
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.
The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"
___________________________________
2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research
___________________________________
2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
Feb 6th, 2011
Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project
Author X-1
I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.
Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
Pureness Parameters
JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
Operational Variables:
These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
Scaling/Measurement
How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
Survey Data Inferential Findings
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
(Likert Scaling)
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php
1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5
4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments
After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010
THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments
Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm
Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.
_______________________________
Opinion Polling Method
"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv
Comments:
"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"
***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***
British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!
***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa
__________________________________
STILL OFF COURSE
Published: Tuesday | November 22, 2011 12 Comments
Job hunters sit a test at a government agency. FILE
Jamaicans stay wary as jobs remain most troubling concern
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
Just under half of the people who voted for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the 2007 general election believe the Government has steered the ship of state in the wrong direction.
The vast majority of people have formed this opinion based on the rising unemployment level.
In the meantime, a whopping 80 per cent of the people who voted for the People's National Party (PNP) agree that the country needs to change economic course fast, with the shortage of jobs also being cited as their main reason for concern.
But over the past month, since the swearing in of Andrew Holness as prime minister, there has been a slight decrease in the number of people who believe the country is headed downhill fast.
The latest Gleaner-commiss-ioned Bill Johnson poll has found that little more than six in every 10 Jamaicans (63 per cent) think the country is moving in the wrong direction.
That is a slight improvement from the 66 per cent recorded in October but within the poll's statistical margin of error, which is plus or minus four per cent.
Meanwhile, more than half of the country believes the shortage of jobs is the most pressing problem facing Jamaica at this time.
That represents a jump of 17 per cent in the number of people who see unemployment as the major problem facing the country when the poll was conducted early October.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll - conducted among 1,008 respondents from November 5 to 6 and November 12 in 84 communities across the island - found that only 18 per cent of Jamaicans believe the country is moving in the right direction, while 19 per cent said they did not know.
Crime second-major concern
Concerns about crime have long dominated local opinion polls when people were asked about the most pressing problem facing the country. Those concerns reached a high of 74 per cent of Jamaicans who saw this as the country's major problem in June 2008.
But that started to change in June of this year when the worldwide recession and the subsequent cuts in thousands of jobs moved unemployment to the top of the list.
Since then, with major crimes on the decline, unemployment has topped the last three Gleaner-commissioned Johnson polls to the point where, this time around, twice as many people see the shortage of jobs as the most pressing problem facing the country in comparison to those who place crime in that position.
"We still have some way to go, but I am feeling particularly vindicated and satisfied that the populace is recognising and acknowledging the efforts of the Ministry of National Security in taking back Jamaica from the clutches of the criminals," said Senator Dwight Nelson, minister of national security, in reaction to news that unemployment has overtaken crime as the country's number-one concern.
"The Government had inherited a runaway crime rate when it assumed office just over four years ago. This had resulted in polls over the years highlighting crime as the most serious concern among Jamaicans; but this is no longer so according to the findings of recent polls … ," added Nelson.
Even when the numbers are moved from the national level to the individual communities, eight in every 10 Jamaicans see unemployment as the major problem in their area.
The Government and the Opposition have been at loggerheads for some time over the number of Jamaicans to have lost their jobs since the global recession started.
The Opposition claims that, by its figures, just under 100,000 people have lost their jobs, while the Government says that figure is highly inflated.
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica, which is the official agency to publish unemployment numbers, has delayed the publication because it said it was working on the national census
Saturday, November 5, 2011
2011/12 Jamaica Election Polling Gameology
Election Polling Gameology
The ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid pollsters and respective news media will produce surveys and customer friendly stories consistent with ‘gameological’ theory such as:
“The Water Melon or Horse pon Track Polling Effect”
Scholars and the polling organization have denied the allegations, but some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon or horse pon track effect " (this refers to the expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side, or punters/betting public gravitate to horse hyperbility)".
This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007 and will be employed in the 2011/12 general election.
In short order (post today's date of November 5, 2011), one will see Pollsters and media houses(not scientific researchers) like Don Anderson, Mark 'Wiggy' Wignal? etal with Polling and 'respective political pursuation' Headlines which may include political user friendly alliance sentiments such as:
Etc, etc…..
The strategy works like this:
Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 2% Third and others Parties equals 77%. Dat leaves 23% of which 12% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 12 percentage points.
So the game is played like this:
_____________________________
One horse dey pon de track sou im consider that im hav home field advantage, but coz im pop dun inna previous races, opposition horse jump out to a early lead before the race begins.
Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shut an company.
So because this ya race so crucial teamie use all kinda different method/bandooloo fe win de race. For example, some a juck wit battery(expediency/resignation etc), some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo-Grand Master. However, because the lead so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Don Anderson High power Opinion Survey PR team, not Scientific Reseachers).
Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1 (PNP), but Horse # 2 (JLP) figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Don Anderson Polls come in.
(Opinion survey) will try and convince 'proportional' 12% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘gameology theory of momentum and game change bounce'.
______________________________
Admittedly, a very good mass behavioral progamming strategy; wherein, the method of "he who controls the circumference of knowledge controls the scope of behavior" is employed as an electioneering tactic.
This stretegy has been successful in various places and if executed competently it could very well work here against the natural trends.
However, scientific research indicate that if the opposition PNP brings a remotely competent and offsetting electioneering strategy using the general population natural Attitudinal variable, then this will ensure their return to power.
Start your engines or horse...the race is on....
__________________________________
X-1
Ah bwoy, what did I just say.....
__________________________________
"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv
Comments:
"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"
***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***
British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!
***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa
_____________
Cost of living pressure to ease
Thursday, November 10, 2011
THE cost of living pressure is likely to continue to ease during the December 2011 quarter, with inflation projected to be in the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent, while economic growth could accelerate during the period.
Presenting the latest Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, for the period ending September 30, Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter, said that this forecast is “predicated on low imported inflation, a continued decline in inflation expectations and stable domestic capacity conditions.”
He stated that, given this forecast, the bank expects that for the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2012, inflation will be within the target range of 6.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent.
“The outlook for inflation for both the December quarter and the fiscal year has incorporated a projection for the seasonal increase in demand pressure in the foreign exchange market. This should mainly reflect the usual lower net private capital inflows,” he explained.
He further noted that the demand for foreign exchange to facilitate current account transactions should abate given the expected moderation in commodity price increases and the seasonal increase in tourism flows.
“In this context, the bank will intervene, as necessary, to smooth supplies in the market and ensure orderly movement in the exchange rate. However, gross reserves will remain comfortably above the international benchmark of 12 weeks coverage of projected imports of goods and services,” he said.
With respect to the country’s economic performance during the review quarter, Wynter stated that the bank’s estimates indicate that there was continued real economic growth in the review quarter, “albeit at a slower pace than the two previous quarters”.
He said that the economy is estimated to have grown 0.0 per cent to 1.0 per cent, relative to average quarterly growth of 1.8 per cent for the first half of the calendar year.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Cost-of-living-pressure-to-ease#ixzz1dJwDv73U
_________________
The jobs are coming, says Tufton
BY LUKE DOUGLAS Observer senior reporter douglasl@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
INTERNATIONAL finance, information and communications technology (ICT), tourism and limestone mining are four of the areas in which jobs will be created in Jamaica over the next few years, according to Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce Dr Christopher Tufton.
Dr Tufton, speaking at a forum staged by the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) young professional group Generation 2000 at the University of the West Indies on Tuesday evening, repeated an earlier announcement that 11,000 jobs in the ICT sector could be doubled over the next three years.
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with 1/1
He said that he is expected to announce in a few weeks that a company with a 'big, big name' will be investing in Jamaica which will create 'quite a few thousand jobs', but did not say if it is involved in ICT sector.
The minister, meanwhile, defended the Government's record of managing the economy throughout the global recession and creating the environment for businesses to succeed.
"Tourism is going to continue to be a major player," Dr Tufton said, noting that the sector needed an additional 20,000 rooms over the next few years to bring the number of rooms in the sector to 50,000.
"Limestone is going to replace bauxite as the next big mining operation in Jamaica because we have so much of it," the minister said, noting that Jamaica has 98 per cent pure limestone which is in high demand.
On international finance, Dr Tufton said a board was recently appointed to manage the sector and that laws were being modernised to position Jamaica to compete with countries such as the Cayman Islands and The Bahamas in providing services for large companies at more competitive rates.
The minister also lauded the performance of the Government led by former Prime Minister Bruce Golding in bringing down inflation and interest rates, stabilising the Jamaican dollar, and managing the economy throughout the global recession.
He urged the students to reject the Opposition People's National Party in the next election, saying they had no plans for job creation.
"My plans are not a puss in a bag; we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with," he said.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/The-jobs-are-coming--says-Tufton_10132998#ixzz1dJwYS3GB
-----------------
Heat is on - Even-steven as to which party would do the better job of running the country
Published: Saturday | November 19, 2011 0 Comments
Nomination day 2007. - File1 2 >
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
JAMAICANS RATE the two major political parties evenly when it comes to which one would do the better job of governing the country at this time. With the youthful Andrew Holness leading a team which includes the veteran Pearnel Charles, Mike Henry and Dr Ken Baugh, and the veteran Portia Simpson Miller leading a team which includes the young Lisa Hanna, Peter Bunting and Mark Golding, it appears the electorate is not sold on either of the two parties.
Approaching the general election finish line, the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) and the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are in a dead heat as they try to convince voters that either would be better at solving the myriad problems facing the country.
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson national public opinion poll has found that the JLP and the PNP captured 39 per cent each when Jamaicans were asked which of the two major political parties would do a better job of running the country. Twenty-two per cent of the respondents were undecided.
The poll was conducted between November 5 and 6 and November 12 with 1,008 respondents in 84 communities islandwide with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
Good news for JLP
While the parties are deadlocked in the latest poll, the numbers reflect better news for the JLP which is making up ground while the PNP is slipping. At 39 per cent, the JLP is recording its highest endorsement since just before the 2007 general election when 41 per cent of Jamaicans said it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country. Since then, in four polls, the governing party has consistently trailed the PNP as the party most Jamaicans think would be the better manager of the affairs of the State.
When Jamaicans were asked this question by the Johnson researchers in June 2011, 32 per cent of Jamaicans said the JLP would do the better job while 43 per cent said the PNP.
This means that the JLP has gained seven percentage points in the past five months while the PNP has lost four percentage points.
The improved performance of the JLP comes despite the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, high unemployment and rising poverty. But the inflation rate has been moderate, the foreign-exchange market stable and interest rates at their lowest levels for some time.
But whichever party forms the next government, it must deal with the IMF muddle, address the debt problem which stood at more than J$1.6 trillion at the end of August, reform the public sector and reduce its drag on the country's purse, overhaul the tax system and address the civil-service pension issue.
Cutting spending and increasing the country's earnings will be non-negotiable for the next government and either party will have the unenviable task of imposing unpopular measures or risk watching the economy collapse
-------
Holness for captain
Published: Friday | November 18, 2011 0 Comments
Andrew Holness
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
More Jamaicans believe Andrew would do better than Simpson Miller in heading Government
Prime Minister Andrew Holness has an eight percentage point lead over Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans believe would do a better job of leading the Government at this time.But with 22 per cent of Jamaicans undecided about which of the two leaders would do the better job, a mouth-watering contest is in the making as the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People's National Party (PNP) attempt to sell the virtues of their respective leaders in the run-up to the next general election.
The expected national leadership debate, if it can be agreed, could also be pivotal in helping the undecided to come to a position.
-------------
X-1:
When mi lok inna mi Crystal Blog, I see the blogs results apriopri. Bwoys this polling thing is very predictable.....
----------
Too close to call - JLP continues to close gap on PNP but Holness bounce begins to taper off
Published: Sunday | November 20, 2011 0 Comments
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is continuing to close the gap on the People's National Party (PNP) in the race to form the next government, but Labourites celebrating at the National Arena today should keep the champagne on ice as the electoral victory expected with the change in leadership of the party might prove elusive.
While the PNP's lead over the JLP has narrowed to four percentage points from 10 six months ago, the Labourites' forward march, which started in October with news that Andrew Holness would be replacing Bruce Golding, has stalled, and instead, the party has lost some ground over the past month.
But the PNP has also lost ground, leaving the two parties in a statistical dead heat as to which will get the nod to form the Government after Jamaicans next vote in a general election.
The JLP enjoyed a huge boost in popularity just over one month ago when young Holness was selected to replace the politically toxic Golding, who announced that he was stepping down as prime minister and party leader.
The coronation of 'Prince Andrew' is scheduled for today when he will be elected unopposed to replace Golding as the JLP leader, and with the bounce in the polls from his selection, Labourites have been talking about winning as many as 43 of the 63 seats which will be up for grabs in the next general election.
The confidence of the JLP supporters was boosted last month when a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll found that the party had narrowed the gap on the PNP from 18 percentage points in April 2010 to six percentage points in October. But when the Johnson team returned to the streets on November 5, 6 and 12, the Holness bounce had flattened out, even though the party continues to close the gap on the PNP.
latest findings
The latest poll has found that if the general election is called now, despite the candidates in place, 29 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP while 32 per cent would vote for the PNP. With the poll having a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, either Holness or Portia Simpson Miller could be asked to form the Government when the dust settles after the election.
To ensure victory, both parties will have to go after the 13 per cent of respondents who say they are undecided, or the 23 per cent, who, despite the anticipated election, still say they will not vote.
With Holness expected to announce the election date anytime now - possibly today - the latest Johnson poll, though still good news for the JLP, could put the brakes on the exuberance of the Labourites, who had all but started victory celebrations since the October Johnson poll.
In October, the poll found that with the Holness bounce, 31 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP if elections were called then, while 37 per cent said they would vote for the PNP. While still behind the PNP, the JLP had gained six percentage points since June while the PNP had gained two, and the gap had closed from 10 percentage points to six.
This time around, in just over one month, the JLP has lost two percentage points (31 per cent to 29 per cent), while the PNP has lost five percentage points (37 per cent to 32 per cent).
The ranks of the undecided moved up from 10 per cent to 13 per cent in the past month, while Jamaicans who say they will not vote remained almost unchanged, at 22 per cent.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
The ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid pollsters and respective news media will produce surveys and customer friendly stories consistent with ‘gameological’ theory such as:
“The Water Melon or Horse pon Track Polling Effect”
Scholars and the polling organization have denied the allegations, but some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon or horse pon track effect " (this refers to the expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side, or punters/betting public gravitate to horse hyperbility)".
This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007 and will be employed in the 2011/12 general election.
In short order (post today's date of November 5, 2011), one will see Pollsters and media houses(not scientific researchers) like Don Anderson, Mark 'Wiggy' Wignal? etal with Polling and 'respective political pursuation' Headlines which may include political user friendly alliance sentiments such as:
"JLP erases PNP lead in the polls",or
“Holness the most preferred leader”or
"Holness Leads Portia in Election Nod"or
“JLP takes lead over PNP by 4 points in the Election Polls”.or
"JLP and PNP in statistical deadheat"
Etc, etc…..
The strategy works like this:
Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 2% Third and others Parties equals 77%. Dat leaves 23% of which 12% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 12 percentage points.
So the game is played like this:
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One horse dey pon de track sou im consider that im hav home field advantage, but coz im pop dun inna previous races, opposition horse jump out to a early lead before the race begins.
Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shut an company.
So because this ya race so crucial teamie use all kinda different method/bandooloo fe win de race. For example, some a juck wit battery(expediency/resignation etc), some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo-Grand Master. However, because the lead so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Don Anderson High power Opinion Survey PR team, not Scientific Reseachers).
Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1 (PNP), but Horse # 2 (JLP) figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Don Anderson Polls come in.
(Opinion survey) will try and convince 'proportional' 12% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘gameology theory of momentum and game change bounce'.
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Admittedly, a very good mass behavioral progamming strategy; wherein, the method of "he who controls the circumference of knowledge controls the scope of behavior" is employed as an electioneering tactic.
This stretegy has been successful in various places and if executed competently it could very well work here against the natural trends.
However, scientific research indicate that if the opposition PNP brings a remotely competent and offsetting electioneering strategy using the general population natural Attitudinal variable, then this will ensure their return to power.
Start your engines or horse...the race is on....
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X-1
Ah bwoy, what did I just say.....
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"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv
Comments:
"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"
***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***
British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!
***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa
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Cost of living pressure to ease
Thursday, November 10, 2011
THE cost of living pressure is likely to continue to ease during the December 2011 quarter, with inflation projected to be in the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent, while economic growth could accelerate during the period.
Presenting the latest Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, for the period ending September 30, Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter, said that this forecast is “predicated on low imported inflation, a continued decline in inflation expectations and stable domestic capacity conditions.”
He stated that, given this forecast, the bank expects that for the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2012, inflation will be within the target range of 6.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent.
“The outlook for inflation for both the December quarter and the fiscal year has incorporated a projection for the seasonal increase in demand pressure in the foreign exchange market. This should mainly reflect the usual lower net private capital inflows,” he explained.
He further noted that the demand for foreign exchange to facilitate current account transactions should abate given the expected moderation in commodity price increases and the seasonal increase in tourism flows.
“In this context, the bank will intervene, as necessary, to smooth supplies in the market and ensure orderly movement in the exchange rate. However, gross reserves will remain comfortably above the international benchmark of 12 weeks coverage of projected imports of goods and services,” he said.
With respect to the country’s economic performance during the review quarter, Wynter stated that the bank’s estimates indicate that there was continued real economic growth in the review quarter, “albeit at a slower pace than the two previous quarters”.
He said that the economy is estimated to have grown 0.0 per cent to 1.0 per cent, relative to average quarterly growth of 1.8 per cent for the first half of the calendar year.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Cost-of-living-pressure-to-ease#ixzz1dJwDv73U
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The jobs are coming, says Tufton
BY LUKE DOUGLAS Observer senior reporter douglasl@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
INTERNATIONAL finance, information and communications technology (ICT), tourism and limestone mining are four of the areas in which jobs will be created in Jamaica over the next few years, according to Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce Dr Christopher Tufton.
Dr Tufton, speaking at a forum staged by the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) young professional group Generation 2000 at the University of the West Indies on Tuesday evening, repeated an earlier announcement that 11,000 jobs in the ICT sector could be doubled over the next three years.
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with 1/1
He said that he is expected to announce in a few weeks that a company with a 'big, big name' will be investing in Jamaica which will create 'quite a few thousand jobs', but did not say if it is involved in ICT sector.
The minister, meanwhile, defended the Government's record of managing the economy throughout the global recession and creating the environment for businesses to succeed.
"Tourism is going to continue to be a major player," Dr Tufton said, noting that the sector needed an additional 20,000 rooms over the next few years to bring the number of rooms in the sector to 50,000.
"Limestone is going to replace bauxite as the next big mining operation in Jamaica because we have so much of it," the minister said, noting that Jamaica has 98 per cent pure limestone which is in high demand.
On international finance, Dr Tufton said a board was recently appointed to manage the sector and that laws were being modernised to position Jamaica to compete with countries such as the Cayman Islands and The Bahamas in providing services for large companies at more competitive rates.
The minister also lauded the performance of the Government led by former Prime Minister Bruce Golding in bringing down inflation and interest rates, stabilising the Jamaican dollar, and managing the economy throughout the global recession.
He urged the students to reject the Opposition People's National Party in the next election, saying they had no plans for job creation.
"My plans are not a puss in a bag; we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with," he said.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/The-jobs-are-coming--says-Tufton_10132998#ixzz1dJwYS3GB
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Heat is on - Even-steven as to which party would do the better job of running the country
Published: Saturday | November 19, 2011 0 Comments
Nomination day 2007. - File1 2 >
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
JAMAICANS RATE the two major political parties evenly when it comes to which one would do the better job of governing the country at this time. With the youthful Andrew Holness leading a team which includes the veteran Pearnel Charles, Mike Henry and Dr Ken Baugh, and the veteran Portia Simpson Miller leading a team which includes the young Lisa Hanna, Peter Bunting and Mark Golding, it appears the electorate is not sold on either of the two parties.
Approaching the general election finish line, the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) and the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are in a dead heat as they try to convince voters that either would be better at solving the myriad problems facing the country.
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson national public opinion poll has found that the JLP and the PNP captured 39 per cent each when Jamaicans were asked which of the two major political parties would do a better job of running the country. Twenty-two per cent of the respondents were undecided.
The poll was conducted between November 5 and 6 and November 12 with 1,008 respondents in 84 communities islandwide with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
Good news for JLP
While the parties are deadlocked in the latest poll, the numbers reflect better news for the JLP which is making up ground while the PNP is slipping. At 39 per cent, the JLP is recording its highest endorsement since just before the 2007 general election when 41 per cent of Jamaicans said it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country. Since then, in four polls, the governing party has consistently trailed the PNP as the party most Jamaicans think would be the better manager of the affairs of the State.
When Jamaicans were asked this question by the Johnson researchers in June 2011, 32 per cent of Jamaicans said the JLP would do the better job while 43 per cent said the PNP.
This means that the JLP has gained seven percentage points in the past five months while the PNP has lost four percentage points.
The improved performance of the JLP comes despite the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, high unemployment and rising poverty. But the inflation rate has been moderate, the foreign-exchange market stable and interest rates at their lowest levels for some time.
But whichever party forms the next government, it must deal with the IMF muddle, address the debt problem which stood at more than J$1.6 trillion at the end of August, reform the public sector and reduce its drag on the country's purse, overhaul the tax system and address the civil-service pension issue.
Cutting spending and increasing the country's earnings will be non-negotiable for the next government and either party will have the unenviable task of imposing unpopular measures or risk watching the economy collapse
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Holness for captain
Published: Friday | November 18, 2011 0 Comments
Andrew Holness
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
More Jamaicans believe Andrew would do better than Simpson Miller in heading Government
Prime Minister Andrew Holness has an eight percentage point lead over Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans believe would do a better job of leading the Government at this time.But with 22 per cent of Jamaicans undecided about which of the two leaders would do the better job, a mouth-watering contest is in the making as the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People's National Party (PNP) attempt to sell the virtues of their respective leaders in the run-up to the next general election.
The expected national leadership debate, if it can be agreed, could also be pivotal in helping the undecided to come to a position.
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X-1:
When mi lok inna mi Crystal Blog, I see the blogs results apriopri. Bwoys this polling thing is very predictable.....
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Too close to call - JLP continues to close gap on PNP but Holness bounce begins to taper off
Published: Sunday | November 20, 2011 0 Comments
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is continuing to close the gap on the People's National Party (PNP) in the race to form the next government, but Labourites celebrating at the National Arena today should keep the champagne on ice as the electoral victory expected with the change in leadership of the party might prove elusive.
While the PNP's lead over the JLP has narrowed to four percentage points from 10 six months ago, the Labourites' forward march, which started in October with news that Andrew Holness would be replacing Bruce Golding, has stalled, and instead, the party has lost some ground over the past month.
But the PNP has also lost ground, leaving the two parties in a statistical dead heat as to which will get the nod to form the Government after Jamaicans next vote in a general election.
The JLP enjoyed a huge boost in popularity just over one month ago when young Holness was selected to replace the politically toxic Golding, who announced that he was stepping down as prime minister and party leader.
The coronation of 'Prince Andrew' is scheduled for today when he will be elected unopposed to replace Golding as the JLP leader, and with the bounce in the polls from his selection, Labourites have been talking about winning as many as 43 of the 63 seats which will be up for grabs in the next general election.
The confidence of the JLP supporters was boosted last month when a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll found that the party had narrowed the gap on the PNP from 18 percentage points in April 2010 to six percentage points in October. But when the Johnson team returned to the streets on November 5, 6 and 12, the Holness bounce had flattened out, even though the party continues to close the gap on the PNP.
latest findings
The latest poll has found that if the general election is called now, despite the candidates in place, 29 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP while 32 per cent would vote for the PNP. With the poll having a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, either Holness or Portia Simpson Miller could be asked to form the Government when the dust settles after the election.
To ensure victory, both parties will have to go after the 13 per cent of respondents who say they are undecided, or the 23 per cent, who, despite the anticipated election, still say they will not vote.
With Holness expected to announce the election date anytime now - possibly today - the latest Johnson poll, though still good news for the JLP, could put the brakes on the exuberance of the Labourites, who had all but started victory celebrations since the October Johnson poll.
In October, the poll found that with the Holness bounce, 31 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP if elections were called then, while 37 per cent said they would vote for the PNP. While still behind the PNP, the JLP had gained six percentage points since June while the PNP had gained two, and the gap had closed from 10 percentage points to six.
This time around, in just over one month, the JLP has lost two percentage points (31 per cent to 29 per cent), while the PNP has lost five percentage points (37 per cent to 32 per cent).
The ranks of the undecided moved up from 10 per cent to 13 per cent in the past month, while Jamaicans who say they will not vote remained almost unchanged, at 22 per cent.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
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