Attitudinal Polling Method
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.
The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"
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2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research
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2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
Feb 6th, 2011
Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project
Author X-1
I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.
Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
Pureness Parameters
JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
Operational Variables:
These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
Scaling/Measurement
How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
Survey Data Inferential Findings
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
(Likert Scaling)
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php
1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b
published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
2. Absenteeism in Parliament
published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5
4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments
After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010
THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments
Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm
Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.
_______________________________
Opinion Polling Method
"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv
Comments:
"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"
***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***
British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!
***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa
__________________________________
STILL OFF COURSE
Published: Tuesday | November 22, 2011 12 Comments
Job hunters sit a test at a government agency. FILE
Jamaicans stay wary as jobs remain most troubling concern
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
Just under half of the people who voted for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the 2007 general election believe the Government has steered the ship of state in the wrong direction.
The vast majority of people have formed this opinion based on the rising unemployment level.
In the meantime, a whopping 80 per cent of the people who voted for the People's National Party (PNP) agree that the country needs to change economic course fast, with the shortage of jobs also being cited as their main reason for concern.
But over the past month, since the swearing in of Andrew Holness as prime minister, there has been a slight decrease in the number of people who believe the country is headed downhill fast.
The latest Gleaner-commiss-ioned Bill Johnson poll has found that little more than six in every 10 Jamaicans (63 per cent) think the country is moving in the wrong direction.
That is a slight improvement from the 66 per cent recorded in October but within the poll's statistical margin of error, which is plus or minus four per cent.
Meanwhile, more than half of the country believes the shortage of jobs is the most pressing problem facing Jamaica at this time.
That represents a jump of 17 per cent in the number of people who see unemployment as the major problem facing the country when the poll was conducted early October.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll - conducted among 1,008 respondents from November 5 to 6 and November 12 in 84 communities across the island - found that only 18 per cent of Jamaicans believe the country is moving in the right direction, while 19 per cent said they did not know.
Crime second-major concern
Concerns about crime have long dominated local opinion polls when people were asked about the most pressing problem facing the country. Those concerns reached a high of 74 per cent of Jamaicans who saw this as the country's major problem in June 2008.
But that started to change in June of this year when the worldwide recession and the subsequent cuts in thousands of jobs moved unemployment to the top of the list.
Since then, with major crimes on the decline, unemployment has topped the last three Gleaner-commissioned Johnson polls to the point where, this time around, twice as many people see the shortage of jobs as the most pressing problem facing the country in comparison to those who place crime in that position.
"We still have some way to go, but I am feeling particularly vindicated and satisfied that the populace is recognising and acknowledging the efforts of the Ministry of National Security in taking back Jamaica from the clutches of the criminals," said Senator Dwight Nelson, minister of national security, in reaction to news that unemployment has overtaken crime as the country's number-one concern.
"The Government had inherited a runaway crime rate when it assumed office just over four years ago. This had resulted in polls over the years highlighting crime as the most serious concern among Jamaicans; but this is no longer so according to the findings of recent polls … ," added Nelson.
Even when the numbers are moved from the national level to the individual communities, eight in every 10 Jamaicans see unemployment as the major problem in their area.
The Government and the Opposition have been at loggerheads for some time over the number of Jamaicans to have lost their jobs since the global recession started.
The Opposition claims that, by its figures, just under 100,000 people have lost their jobs, while the Government says that figure is highly inflated.
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica, which is the official agency to publish unemployment numbers, has delayed the publication because it said it was working on the national census
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Saturday, November 5, 2011
2011/12 Jamaica Election Polling Gameology
Election Polling Gameology
The ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid pollsters and respective news media will produce surveys and customer friendly stories consistent with ‘gameological’ theory such as:
“The Water Melon or Horse pon Track Polling Effect”
Scholars and the polling organization have denied the allegations, but some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon or horse pon track effect " (this refers to the expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side, or punters/betting public gravitate to horse hyperbility)".
This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007 and will be employed in the 2011/12 general election.
In short order (post today's date of November 5, 2011), one will see Pollsters and media houses(not scientific researchers) like Don Anderson, Mark 'Wiggy' Wignal? etal with Polling and 'respective political pursuation' Headlines which may include political user friendly alliance sentiments such as:
Etc, etc…..
The strategy works like this:
Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 2% Third and others Parties equals 77%. Dat leaves 23% of which 12% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 12 percentage points.
So the game is played like this:
_____________________________
One horse dey pon de track sou im consider that im hav home field advantage, but coz im pop dun inna previous races, opposition horse jump out to a early lead before the race begins.
Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shut an company.
So because this ya race so crucial teamie use all kinda different method/bandooloo fe win de race. For example, some a juck wit battery(expediency/resignation etc), some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo-Grand Master. However, because the lead so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Don Anderson High power Opinion Survey PR team, not Scientific Reseachers).
Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1 (PNP), but Horse # 2 (JLP) figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Don Anderson Polls come in.
(Opinion survey) will try and convince 'proportional' 12% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘gameology theory of momentum and game change bounce'.
______________________________
Admittedly, a very good mass behavioral progamming strategy; wherein, the method of "he who controls the circumference of knowledge controls the scope of behavior" is employed as an electioneering tactic.
This stretegy has been successful in various places and if executed competently it could very well work here against the natural trends.
However, scientific research indicate that if the opposition PNP brings a remotely competent and offsetting electioneering strategy using the general population natural Attitudinal variable, then this will ensure their return to power.
Start your engines or horse...the race is on....
__________________________________
X-1
Ah bwoy, what did I just say.....
__________________________________
"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv
Comments:
"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"
***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***
British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!
***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa
_____________
Cost of living pressure to ease
Thursday, November 10, 2011
THE cost of living pressure is likely to continue to ease during the December 2011 quarter, with inflation projected to be in the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent, while economic growth could accelerate during the period.
Presenting the latest Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, for the period ending September 30, Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter, said that this forecast is “predicated on low imported inflation, a continued decline in inflation expectations and stable domestic capacity conditions.”
He stated that, given this forecast, the bank expects that for the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2012, inflation will be within the target range of 6.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent.
“The outlook for inflation for both the December quarter and the fiscal year has incorporated a projection for the seasonal increase in demand pressure in the foreign exchange market. This should mainly reflect the usual lower net private capital inflows,” he explained.
He further noted that the demand for foreign exchange to facilitate current account transactions should abate given the expected moderation in commodity price increases and the seasonal increase in tourism flows.
“In this context, the bank will intervene, as necessary, to smooth supplies in the market and ensure orderly movement in the exchange rate. However, gross reserves will remain comfortably above the international benchmark of 12 weeks coverage of projected imports of goods and services,” he said.
With respect to the country’s economic performance during the review quarter, Wynter stated that the bank’s estimates indicate that there was continued real economic growth in the review quarter, “albeit at a slower pace than the two previous quarters”.
He said that the economy is estimated to have grown 0.0 per cent to 1.0 per cent, relative to average quarterly growth of 1.8 per cent for the first half of the calendar year.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Cost-of-living-pressure-to-ease#ixzz1dJwDv73U
_________________
The jobs are coming, says Tufton
BY LUKE DOUGLAS Observer senior reporter douglasl@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
INTERNATIONAL finance, information and communications technology (ICT), tourism and limestone mining are four of the areas in which jobs will be created in Jamaica over the next few years, according to Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce Dr Christopher Tufton.
Dr Tufton, speaking at a forum staged by the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) young professional group Generation 2000 at the University of the West Indies on Tuesday evening, repeated an earlier announcement that 11,000 jobs in the ICT sector could be doubled over the next three years.
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with 1/1
He said that he is expected to announce in a few weeks that a company with a 'big, big name' will be investing in Jamaica which will create 'quite a few thousand jobs', but did not say if it is involved in ICT sector.
The minister, meanwhile, defended the Government's record of managing the economy throughout the global recession and creating the environment for businesses to succeed.
"Tourism is going to continue to be a major player," Dr Tufton said, noting that the sector needed an additional 20,000 rooms over the next few years to bring the number of rooms in the sector to 50,000.
"Limestone is going to replace bauxite as the next big mining operation in Jamaica because we have so much of it," the minister said, noting that Jamaica has 98 per cent pure limestone which is in high demand.
On international finance, Dr Tufton said a board was recently appointed to manage the sector and that laws were being modernised to position Jamaica to compete with countries such as the Cayman Islands and The Bahamas in providing services for large companies at more competitive rates.
The minister also lauded the performance of the Government led by former Prime Minister Bruce Golding in bringing down inflation and interest rates, stabilising the Jamaican dollar, and managing the economy throughout the global recession.
He urged the students to reject the Opposition People's National Party in the next election, saying they had no plans for job creation.
"My plans are not a puss in a bag; we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with," he said.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/The-jobs-are-coming--says-Tufton_10132998#ixzz1dJwYS3GB
-----------------
Heat is on - Even-steven as to which party would do the better job of running the country
Published: Saturday | November 19, 2011 0 Comments
Nomination day 2007. - File1 2 >
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
JAMAICANS RATE the two major political parties evenly when it comes to which one would do the better job of governing the country at this time. With the youthful Andrew Holness leading a team which includes the veteran Pearnel Charles, Mike Henry and Dr Ken Baugh, and the veteran Portia Simpson Miller leading a team which includes the young Lisa Hanna, Peter Bunting and Mark Golding, it appears the electorate is not sold on either of the two parties.
Approaching the general election finish line, the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) and the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are in a dead heat as they try to convince voters that either would be better at solving the myriad problems facing the country.
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson national public opinion poll has found that the JLP and the PNP captured 39 per cent each when Jamaicans were asked which of the two major political parties would do a better job of running the country. Twenty-two per cent of the respondents were undecided.
The poll was conducted between November 5 and 6 and November 12 with 1,008 respondents in 84 communities islandwide with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
Good news for JLP
While the parties are deadlocked in the latest poll, the numbers reflect better news for the JLP which is making up ground while the PNP is slipping. At 39 per cent, the JLP is recording its highest endorsement since just before the 2007 general election when 41 per cent of Jamaicans said it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country. Since then, in four polls, the governing party has consistently trailed the PNP as the party most Jamaicans think would be the better manager of the affairs of the State.
When Jamaicans were asked this question by the Johnson researchers in June 2011, 32 per cent of Jamaicans said the JLP would do the better job while 43 per cent said the PNP.
This means that the JLP has gained seven percentage points in the past five months while the PNP has lost four percentage points.
The improved performance of the JLP comes despite the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, high unemployment and rising poverty. But the inflation rate has been moderate, the foreign-exchange market stable and interest rates at their lowest levels for some time.
But whichever party forms the next government, it must deal with the IMF muddle, address the debt problem which stood at more than J$1.6 trillion at the end of August, reform the public sector and reduce its drag on the country's purse, overhaul the tax system and address the civil-service pension issue.
Cutting spending and increasing the country's earnings will be non-negotiable for the next government and either party will have the unenviable task of imposing unpopular measures or risk watching the economy collapse
-------
Holness for captain
Published: Friday | November 18, 2011 0 Comments
Andrew Holness
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
More Jamaicans believe Andrew would do better than Simpson Miller in heading Government
Prime Minister Andrew Holness has an eight percentage point lead over Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans believe would do a better job of leading the Government at this time.But with 22 per cent of Jamaicans undecided about which of the two leaders would do the better job, a mouth-watering contest is in the making as the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People's National Party (PNP) attempt to sell the virtues of their respective leaders in the run-up to the next general election.
The expected national leadership debate, if it can be agreed, could also be pivotal in helping the undecided to come to a position.
-------------
X-1:
When mi lok inna mi Crystal Blog, I see the blogs results apriopri. Bwoys this polling thing is very predictable.....
----------
Too close to call - JLP continues to close gap on PNP but Holness bounce begins to taper off
Published: Sunday | November 20, 2011 0 Comments
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is continuing to close the gap on the People's National Party (PNP) in the race to form the next government, but Labourites celebrating at the National Arena today should keep the champagne on ice as the electoral victory expected with the change in leadership of the party might prove elusive.
While the PNP's lead over the JLP has narrowed to four percentage points from 10 six months ago, the Labourites' forward march, which started in October with news that Andrew Holness would be replacing Bruce Golding, has stalled, and instead, the party has lost some ground over the past month.
But the PNP has also lost ground, leaving the two parties in a statistical dead heat as to which will get the nod to form the Government after Jamaicans next vote in a general election.
The JLP enjoyed a huge boost in popularity just over one month ago when young Holness was selected to replace the politically toxic Golding, who announced that he was stepping down as prime minister and party leader.
The coronation of 'Prince Andrew' is scheduled for today when he will be elected unopposed to replace Golding as the JLP leader, and with the bounce in the polls from his selection, Labourites have been talking about winning as many as 43 of the 63 seats which will be up for grabs in the next general election.
The confidence of the JLP supporters was boosted last month when a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll found that the party had narrowed the gap on the PNP from 18 percentage points in April 2010 to six percentage points in October. But when the Johnson team returned to the streets on November 5, 6 and 12, the Holness bounce had flattened out, even though the party continues to close the gap on the PNP.
latest findings
The latest poll has found that if the general election is called now, despite the candidates in place, 29 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP while 32 per cent would vote for the PNP. With the poll having a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, either Holness or Portia Simpson Miller could be asked to form the Government when the dust settles after the election.
To ensure victory, both parties will have to go after the 13 per cent of respondents who say they are undecided, or the 23 per cent, who, despite the anticipated election, still say they will not vote.
With Holness expected to announce the election date anytime now - possibly today - the latest Johnson poll, though still good news for the JLP, could put the brakes on the exuberance of the Labourites, who had all but started victory celebrations since the October Johnson poll.
In October, the poll found that with the Holness bounce, 31 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP if elections were called then, while 37 per cent said they would vote for the PNP. While still behind the PNP, the JLP had gained six percentage points since June while the PNP had gained two, and the gap had closed from 10 percentage points to six.
This time around, in just over one month, the JLP has lost two percentage points (31 per cent to 29 per cent), while the PNP has lost five percentage points (37 per cent to 32 per cent).
The ranks of the undecided moved up from 10 per cent to 13 per cent in the past month, while Jamaicans who say they will not vote remained almost unchanged, at 22 per cent.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
The ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid pollsters and respective news media will produce surveys and customer friendly stories consistent with ‘gameological’ theory such as:
“The Water Melon or Horse pon Track Polling Effect”
Scholars and the polling organization have denied the allegations, but some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon or horse pon track effect " (this refers to the expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side, or punters/betting public gravitate to horse hyperbility)".
This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007 and will be employed in the 2011/12 general election.
In short order (post today's date of November 5, 2011), one will see Pollsters and media houses(not scientific researchers) like Don Anderson, Mark 'Wiggy' Wignal? etal with Polling and 'respective political pursuation' Headlines which may include political user friendly alliance sentiments such as:
"JLP erases PNP lead in the polls",or
“Holness the most preferred leader”or
"Holness Leads Portia in Election Nod"or
“JLP takes lead over PNP by 4 points in the Election Polls”.or
"JLP and PNP in statistical deadheat"
Etc, etc…..
The strategy works like this:
Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 2% Third and others Parties equals 77%. Dat leaves 23% of which 12% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 12 percentage points.
So the game is played like this:
_____________________________
One horse dey pon de track sou im consider that im hav home field advantage, but coz im pop dun inna previous races, opposition horse jump out to a early lead before the race begins.
Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shut an company.
So because this ya race so crucial teamie use all kinda different method/bandooloo fe win de race. For example, some a juck wit battery(expediency/resignation etc), some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo-Grand Master. However, because the lead so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Don Anderson High power Opinion Survey PR team, not Scientific Reseachers).
Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1 (PNP), but Horse # 2 (JLP) figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Don Anderson Polls come in.
(Opinion survey) will try and convince 'proportional' 12% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘gameology theory of momentum and game change bounce'.
______________________________
Admittedly, a very good mass behavioral progamming strategy; wherein, the method of "he who controls the circumference of knowledge controls the scope of behavior" is employed as an electioneering tactic.
This stretegy has been successful in various places and if executed competently it could very well work here against the natural trends.
However, scientific research indicate that if the opposition PNP brings a remotely competent and offsetting electioneering strategy using the general population natural Attitudinal variable, then this will ensure their return to power.
Start your engines or horse...the race is on....
__________________________________
X-1
Ah bwoy, what did I just say.....
__________________________________
"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv
Comments:
"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"
***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***
British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!
***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa
_____________
Cost of living pressure to ease
Thursday, November 10, 2011
THE cost of living pressure is likely to continue to ease during the December 2011 quarter, with inflation projected to be in the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent, while economic growth could accelerate during the period.
Presenting the latest Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, for the period ending September 30, Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter, said that this forecast is “predicated on low imported inflation, a continued decline in inflation expectations and stable domestic capacity conditions.”
He stated that, given this forecast, the bank expects that for the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2012, inflation will be within the target range of 6.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent.
“The outlook for inflation for both the December quarter and the fiscal year has incorporated a projection for the seasonal increase in demand pressure in the foreign exchange market. This should mainly reflect the usual lower net private capital inflows,” he explained.
He further noted that the demand for foreign exchange to facilitate current account transactions should abate given the expected moderation in commodity price increases and the seasonal increase in tourism flows.
“In this context, the bank will intervene, as necessary, to smooth supplies in the market and ensure orderly movement in the exchange rate. However, gross reserves will remain comfortably above the international benchmark of 12 weeks coverage of projected imports of goods and services,” he said.
With respect to the country’s economic performance during the review quarter, Wynter stated that the bank’s estimates indicate that there was continued real economic growth in the review quarter, “albeit at a slower pace than the two previous quarters”.
He said that the economy is estimated to have grown 0.0 per cent to 1.0 per cent, relative to average quarterly growth of 1.8 per cent for the first half of the calendar year.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Cost-of-living-pressure-to-ease#ixzz1dJwDv73U
_________________
The jobs are coming, says Tufton
BY LUKE DOUGLAS Observer senior reporter douglasl@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
INTERNATIONAL finance, information and communications technology (ICT), tourism and limestone mining are four of the areas in which jobs will be created in Jamaica over the next few years, according to Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce Dr Christopher Tufton.
Dr Tufton, speaking at a forum staged by the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) young professional group Generation 2000 at the University of the West Indies on Tuesday evening, repeated an earlier announcement that 11,000 jobs in the ICT sector could be doubled over the next three years.
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with 1/1
He said that he is expected to announce in a few weeks that a company with a 'big, big name' will be investing in Jamaica which will create 'quite a few thousand jobs', but did not say if it is involved in ICT sector.
The minister, meanwhile, defended the Government's record of managing the economy throughout the global recession and creating the environment for businesses to succeed.
"Tourism is going to continue to be a major player," Dr Tufton said, noting that the sector needed an additional 20,000 rooms over the next few years to bring the number of rooms in the sector to 50,000.
"Limestone is going to replace bauxite as the next big mining operation in Jamaica because we have so much of it," the minister said, noting that Jamaica has 98 per cent pure limestone which is in high demand.
On international finance, Dr Tufton said a board was recently appointed to manage the sector and that laws were being modernised to position Jamaica to compete with countries such as the Cayman Islands and The Bahamas in providing services for large companies at more competitive rates.
The minister also lauded the performance of the Government led by former Prime Minister Bruce Golding in bringing down inflation and interest rates, stabilising the Jamaican dollar, and managing the economy throughout the global recession.
He urged the students to reject the Opposition People's National Party in the next election, saying they had no plans for job creation.
"My plans are not a puss in a bag; we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with," he said.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/The-jobs-are-coming--says-Tufton_10132998#ixzz1dJwYS3GB
-----------------
Heat is on - Even-steven as to which party would do the better job of running the country
Published: Saturday | November 19, 2011 0 Comments
Nomination day 2007. - File1 2 >
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
JAMAICANS RATE the two major political parties evenly when it comes to which one would do the better job of governing the country at this time. With the youthful Andrew Holness leading a team which includes the veteran Pearnel Charles, Mike Henry and Dr Ken Baugh, and the veteran Portia Simpson Miller leading a team which includes the young Lisa Hanna, Peter Bunting and Mark Golding, it appears the electorate is not sold on either of the two parties.
Approaching the general election finish line, the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) and the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are in a dead heat as they try to convince voters that either would be better at solving the myriad problems facing the country.
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson national public opinion poll has found that the JLP and the PNP captured 39 per cent each when Jamaicans were asked which of the two major political parties would do a better job of running the country. Twenty-two per cent of the respondents were undecided.
The poll was conducted between November 5 and 6 and November 12 with 1,008 respondents in 84 communities islandwide with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
Good news for JLP
While the parties are deadlocked in the latest poll, the numbers reflect better news for the JLP which is making up ground while the PNP is slipping. At 39 per cent, the JLP is recording its highest endorsement since just before the 2007 general election when 41 per cent of Jamaicans said it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country. Since then, in four polls, the governing party has consistently trailed the PNP as the party most Jamaicans think would be the better manager of the affairs of the State.
When Jamaicans were asked this question by the Johnson researchers in June 2011, 32 per cent of Jamaicans said the JLP would do the better job while 43 per cent said the PNP.
This means that the JLP has gained seven percentage points in the past five months while the PNP has lost four percentage points.
The improved performance of the JLP comes despite the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, high unemployment and rising poverty. But the inflation rate has been moderate, the foreign-exchange market stable and interest rates at their lowest levels for some time.
But whichever party forms the next government, it must deal with the IMF muddle, address the debt problem which stood at more than J$1.6 trillion at the end of August, reform the public sector and reduce its drag on the country's purse, overhaul the tax system and address the civil-service pension issue.
Cutting spending and increasing the country's earnings will be non-negotiable for the next government and either party will have the unenviable task of imposing unpopular measures or risk watching the economy collapse
-------
Holness for captain
Published: Friday | November 18, 2011 0 Comments
Andrew Holness
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
More Jamaicans believe Andrew would do better than Simpson Miller in heading Government
Prime Minister Andrew Holness has an eight percentage point lead over Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans believe would do a better job of leading the Government at this time.But with 22 per cent of Jamaicans undecided about which of the two leaders would do the better job, a mouth-watering contest is in the making as the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People's National Party (PNP) attempt to sell the virtues of their respective leaders in the run-up to the next general election.
The expected national leadership debate, if it can be agreed, could also be pivotal in helping the undecided to come to a position.
-------------
X-1:
When mi lok inna mi Crystal Blog, I see the blogs results apriopri. Bwoys this polling thing is very predictable.....
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Too close to call - JLP continues to close gap on PNP but Holness bounce begins to taper off
Published: Sunday | November 20, 2011 0 Comments
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is continuing to close the gap on the People's National Party (PNP) in the race to form the next government, but Labourites celebrating at the National Arena today should keep the champagne on ice as the electoral victory expected with the change in leadership of the party might prove elusive.
While the PNP's lead over the JLP has narrowed to four percentage points from 10 six months ago, the Labourites' forward march, which started in October with news that Andrew Holness would be replacing Bruce Golding, has stalled, and instead, the party has lost some ground over the past month.
But the PNP has also lost ground, leaving the two parties in a statistical dead heat as to which will get the nod to form the Government after Jamaicans next vote in a general election.
The JLP enjoyed a huge boost in popularity just over one month ago when young Holness was selected to replace the politically toxic Golding, who announced that he was stepping down as prime minister and party leader.
The coronation of 'Prince Andrew' is scheduled for today when he will be elected unopposed to replace Golding as the JLP leader, and with the bounce in the polls from his selection, Labourites have been talking about winning as many as 43 of the 63 seats which will be up for grabs in the next general election.
The confidence of the JLP supporters was boosted last month when a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll found that the party had narrowed the gap on the PNP from 18 percentage points in April 2010 to six percentage points in October. But when the Johnson team returned to the streets on November 5, 6 and 12, the Holness bounce had flattened out, even though the party continues to close the gap on the PNP.
latest findings
The latest poll has found that if the general election is called now, despite the candidates in place, 29 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP while 32 per cent would vote for the PNP. With the poll having a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, either Holness or Portia Simpson Miller could be asked to form the Government when the dust settles after the election.
To ensure victory, both parties will have to go after the 13 per cent of respondents who say they are undecided, or the 23 per cent, who, despite the anticipated election, still say they will not vote.
With Holness expected to announce the election date anytime now - possibly today - the latest Johnson poll, though still good news for the JLP, could put the brakes on the exuberance of the Labourites, who had all but started victory celebrations since the October Johnson poll.
In October, the poll found that with the Holness bounce, 31 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP if elections were called then, while 37 per cent said they would vote for the PNP. While still behind the PNP, the JLP had gained six percentage points since June while the PNP had gained two, and the gap had closed from 10 percentage points to six.
This time around, in just over one month, the JLP has lost two percentage points (31 per cent to 29 per cent), while the PNP has lost five percentage points (37 per cent to 32 per cent).
The ranks of the undecided moved up from 10 per cent to 13 per cent in the past month, while Jamaicans who say they will not vote remained almost unchanged, at 22 per cent.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
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