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Saturday, July 9, 2011

Jamaica Election 2012 Stone Methodology

The following quote “” was my opening post in the Jamaica Gleaner Newspaper Discussion Forum when I started the most recent version of X’s Stone Methodology Research Blog. Coincidentally, in June 2011 the Gleaner Discussion Forum disappeared. I re-created the Stone Methodology Blog topic in the Jamaica Star Newspaper Discussion Forum in July 2011, one (1) day later, the Star Discussion Forum disappeared. As this is cyber world with multiple uncontrollable variables I am under no illusion that my blogs contributed to the disappearances; however, during the height of my 2007 version I was blocked from accessing my blog and hence the name change from Xx to X-1. Is this censorship? I can speculate, but cannot validate; so I will call these occurrences ‘coincidental’.

“This project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache” (2/2011, Jamaica Gleaner Discussion Forum, X-1)

2007 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
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Posts: 23 Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Sep 14th, 2006, 8:12pm
The tradition lives on
Carl Stone protégé Ian Boxill is the new pollster
BY DESMOND ALLEN Executive Editor - Operations
Sunday, September 10, 2006

WITHIN a day of the publication of the last in the series of opinion survey results in the latest Stone Polls, Dr Ian Boxill's telephone was ringing off the hook.
Many of the calls, predictably, originated from the talk shows. Everybody wanted a piece of Boxill, who had just been publishing his first polls as head of the Stone Polling Team that conducted the August 2006 survey.


The team (from left clockwise) Dr Ian Boxill, Arlene Bailey, Roy Russell, Dr Lloyd Waller, and Dr Lawrence Alfred Powell
It was at the end of an excruciating week for the politicians... on both sides.

For the first six days of the polls, Portia Simpson Miller was creaming Bruce Golding. The Labourites winced with each day's results and cursed Boxill and his team under their breaths, while the Comrades celebrated.
Then on the seventh day, the polls turned on its own head and showed Golding's Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) within striking distance of Simpson Miller's People's National Party (PNP), reversing what might have been seen as the PNP gone clear. It was the Comrades' time to curse the pollsters.

Jamaicans are notorious for loving the polls when the numbers favour their sides and, conversely, hating them when they favour the other side. Still, Boxill was taken off guard by the overwhelming response to the latest results.....


"The faculty has a strong tradition of research. The Department of Government where Carl Stone was, is where it all started. We are especially happy to be involved in the polls because Carl Stone started it. We are continuing the tradition and we will endeavour to maintain the reputation of the Stone Polls," he pledged.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #1 - Sep 14th, 2006, 8:13pm
With the political season upon us again the 'Polling' Scientists are starting to fine tune their Polling Research strategies disguised as "Scientific 'Representative' Research"

So here goes the launching of the mirror to reveal the triangulation imagery behind the 'strategies' of the Stone Team.



REAL VS FAKE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH

Scientific Investigation

The construction of testable theory, which is accomplished by scientific research methods that are conducted in a designed stimulus neutral environment for the collection of data.

A research design or schematic is used to channel data into sterile and unbiased data pools from which valid and reliable inferences and deductions can be concluded.

Checks and balances are utilized via randomness to neutralize contaminated data, which if not neutralized will render your research invalid and not reliable with the ultimate effect of making your findings erroneous.

"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'.

As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways:

1) channel social agendas in a certain direction
2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction
3) influence social agendas in a certain direction
4) influence public policy
5) lead the people in a certain direction or
6) Valid and reliable Social Science Research

Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design that is only related to legitimate scientific investigation and the overall goal is to yield a certain type of outcome.

The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior.

Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties account for 75% of the electorate (party die hearts) 37½% each, the third party <5%. The target electorate then becomes the swing voters’ appx. 20%; of this number one only needs 11% to win. So the % of people being targeted in McPolling is comprised of 20% of the electorate with a targeted goal of 11%.

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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #2 - Sep 15th, 2006, 3:33am
Preliminary flaws within the Stone Research Design

The supposedly pre-eminent Opinion Poll Researcher “was taken off guard” by the overwhelming response on his team’s first set of opinion poll findings.

"Jamaicans are notorious for loving the polls when the numbers favour their sides and, conversely, hating them when they favour the other side. Still, Boxill was taken off guard by the overwhelming response to the latest results…"

That’s like Ms. Cleo not 'seeing' her downfall coming as a renowned psychic. One would think that a pre-eminent pollster would not be overwhelmed by the initial reactions due to:

1.The controversial meltdown that the Stone Poll Team experienced in the last election Polling season

2.The reputation of the Carl Stone

3.The importance of Elections in Jamaica

4. The grand entry of his 'famous' team without defining the scope of each team member.

An accomplished Social Research Scientist worth his or her salt would not be "taken off guard" by the initial reactions.

This apparent Prima Facie social science 'participant knowledge cultural ineptitude' ultimately affects the methodological approach and quality of the opinion polling research construction design by: the enhancement of ‘false positives’, less than accurate question design construction because of a subtle lack knowledge of the subjects/participants, and a subtle misread of the ‘general universe’ terrain from which the Scientist is trying to extract representative opinions.

Other fundamental flaws in the Stone research design model include, the nexus between the gross intended scope of the Opinion Polling (predicting the winner of the next general election) and the Working Universe (participants) from which the opinions are being obtained and then literally LEAPING OVER MOUNTAINS to make representative inferences in a election landscape that includes individual voting constituencies which possess their own unique and relative cultural and election behaviors variables.

The above represents formidable obstacles for the Stone Team and if not dealt with in a genuine scientific way through a more adequate and operational research design and execution of their polling methodology/strategy, then this illustrious group may fall on the same credibility piercing pen that was left behind in the Stone Polling Office by Mr. Wignal.
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Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #3 - Sep 16th, 2006, 5:52am
Yes Mr. X shine de light.


"The Jamaica Gleaner
BY PETER ESPEUT

POLITICAL POLLS
The only quarrel I ever had with the late Professor Carl Stone was when I suggested that his polls did not just reflect public opinion, but actually helped to form it. My suggestion was that the publication of polls indicating victory for one side could discourage supporters of the other side from voting making the poll a self-fulfilling prophecy. It could even demoralise the runner-up party and cause them to reduce their efforts, thus favouring the poll-leader. To this day, I can't understand why Carl took such strong umbrage at my suggestion. He raised his voice and was adamant that his polls only reflected opinion, and did not create it.

Many believe that polls create public opinion in even more substantial ways, especially in the Jamaican context of tribalism and patronage. If supporting the winner means that I become a candidate for scarce benefits and spoils, then if the polls declare which party will win and I want political favours, then I might get on the bandwagon and vote for the sure winner. And even without the patronage, humans are social animals and like to follow crowds. It is for this reason that political polling has itself become political. In 1980 when Stone's poll foretold a JLP victory, another poll was commissioned which predicted a PNP victory. Today, much more subtle tactics are at work. Why if there are two political opinion polls declaring that the PNP is winning, does the PNP have to employ their own pollster - a foreigner? Don't they trust the local pollsters? Should we?

The methods that Carl Stone used (as he explained them to me) were not "scientific" in the strict sense of the word. He did not use "random sampling" or "stratified random sampling" or "scientific sampling" to determine who he interviewed. He analysed how each and every polling division has voted since the first General Election of 1944, and identified the PDs which showed a swing to the winning party. However, those PDs voted, the whole constituencies voted, and he only surveyed these swing PDs. This method worked for him, and he always got it more-or-less right, and he thumbed his nose at the purist critics of his "unscientific" methods.

How the margin of error (always said to be plus or minus three per cent) can be reliably calculated using this idiosyncratic method, I have never been able to discover. With internal migration and the growing garrisonisation of Jamaica, the number of these swing PDs must be shrinking. But if publication of the polls influences public opinion, we may never know how reliable this method of polling really is."


A triumph for democracy
Changing Times Kevin O'Brien Chang
Monday, October 21, 2002
”This campaign's biggest loser was the Stone polls, whose inexplicable fluctuations destroyed their credibility.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #4 - Sep 16th, 2006, 6:20am
Yes, bredrin the Polling season is upon us again and the Polling Witch Doctors are off with a bang, but dont fear a mirror is here.



"B.F. Skinner (radical behaviorism)

The central explanation Skinner offers for all behavior is the form of learning called operant conditioning.
Operant conditioning occurs when a response produces positive reinforcement, or reward. According to Skinner, positive reinforced responses will be repeated, while those that go unrewarded will not be repeated. Skinner argued that any complex behavior maybe analyzed into chains of simply operant responses. He does not believe in the importance of, or even the existence of , internal processes and structures. He argued that all changes we observe in human behavior are a matter of accumulated learning.

Ivan Pavlov (respondent conditioning)

“Respondent conditioning occurs when a neutral stimulus (e.g., a bell-{no pun intended}) is repeatedly presented in association with an unconditioned stimulus (for e.g. food). An unconditioned stimulus is an event that reliably produces an unconditioned response (as food evokes salivation). After a number of trials in which the neutral and unconditioned stimuli are paired, the neutral stimulus will begin to evoke the unconditioned response even when it is presented alone (e.g the bell evokes salivation even before the food appears). Pavlov believes that language and thought control behavior as a product of respondent conditioning. e.g. If the word ‘bad’ is paired with a slap on the hand, hand withdrawal will eventually occur when a parent shouts ‘bad’ . Later in life, the phrase ‘Tom is a bad man’ will produce the withdrawal responses and the emotional responses associated with the word ‘bad’."


Just in case anyone thinks this Political strategy that is being employed by the Funder and Stakeholders is a joke read the above again and conduct your own "google" research on the subject of behavioral conditioning and then make the connections.
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #5 - Sep 16th, 2006, 11:27am
Quote from Xx on Sep 14th, 2006, 8:12pm:
Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design

Can the semi-illiterates among us get a summary; would love to know what is going on with the poll and politics thingy?
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #6 - Sep 16th, 2006, 6:52pm
Agengi etal, visualize/imagine a three (3) way horse race. One horse dey pon de track so long that im consider it him yaad ground, and because him a favorite him always start with a 9 lengths jump start before the race even begin. (Poll: 9 points lead by the PNP over the JLP)

Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/method/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shirt.

So because this ya race so important teamie use all kinda different method/strategy/bandooloo fe win de race.For example, some a juck wit battery, some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo. However, because the 9 lenghts so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Stone high power Opinion survey Team). Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1, but Horse # 2 figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Stone Polls come in.

Stone Team recognize de 9 point lead but dem draw fe de high power battery, tonic an oil (Opinion survey) and try and convince 11% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘theory’/game of momentum. Now if dem can sweet talk (Psychology)….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy

…enuff people (strategically conducted Stone Polling surveys) then the goal is dat through some combination of: some people not betting and some switching dem can achieve dat 11 %. But in reality it’s a game of smoking mirrors, but if de high power battery, tonic an oil strong enuff, den dem can mek up de 9 lengths. Really its entirely possible if de 3 way guzzu (high power battery, tonic an oil) get mixed well and delivered by a master 3 card man- Stone Team. However, highly improbably because of numerous other factors such as: Age, Race and Gender that will mitigate/(work against) the reversal of the 9 % lead.

Why 11%. Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 5% Third and others Parties equals 80%. Now dat leaves 20% of which 11% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 11 points.

Dats de game in a nut shell.

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« Last Edit: Sep 17th, 2006, 5:37am by Xx »
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #7 - Sep 16th, 2006, 7:31pm
Quote from Xx on Sep 16th, 2006, 6:52pm:
Dats de game in a nut shell.

Dat nut is too big still.
Dat nut is a big as some a di Pacific coconuts.

As far as the elections are concerned, we need to be more alert at the machinations of the 'regime changers' and their dollars influencing Jahmaican elections.

I'd be more concerned about them than with stone dead polls; unless of course their dollars are funding the shenanigans there; because the ‘regime changers’ will use unscientific polls to give the illusion that the JLP has a chance. This will set up the conditions for tampering with the Jahmaican election and cause a victory by the JLP to not look so surprising.
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Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #8 - Sep 17th, 2006, 8:00am
Its a Big High Stakes game, access to Billions of dollars, power and influence over a nation of people that ultimately includes you.

No dis, but you must challenge yourself to understand the game, which means venturing outside of your comfort zone to over some of the tactics being used to manipulate 'our' community. If not, you will remain in the 'manipulation' zone. But it looks like you understand more than you are admitting from your comments so far.

The Stone Team are hired guns and are not necessarily friendly to the government so their approach will ultimately show an opposition friendly bias in their general under tones and tactics, even at the risk of damaging their reputation. Thats what money can buy.
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #9 - Sep 17th, 2006, 2:26pm
Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 17th, 2006, 8:00am:

The Stone Team are hired guns and are not necessarily friendly to the government so their approach will ultimately show an opposition friendly bias in their general under tones and tactics, even at the risk of damaging their reputation. Thats what money can buy.

The question is, 'who is paying' the stone head?
And what 'reputation'?
Also there is a well known saying, 'every body has his price'.

Playing around with polls by itself is not that big a deal. I don't think Jahmaican voters for the most part could care less.

The problem is when the playing with polls is a means to cover more sinister moves by the stoogies of 'regime changers' who haave an almost inexhaustable amount of money to do 'regime changes' around the world.
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Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #10 - Sep 17th, 2006, 7:34pm
Agengi, 'your' fight with Uncle Sam is not really what this thread is about, I am sure Mr. X would agree if I understand his theory correctly.

I am sure a person of your knowledge can decipher the focus of this thread and respond accordingly. Your argument maybe secondarily related where common interest is present between the funder Gorstew, from Observer newspaper background and business/economic/political geographic powers such as your Uncle Sam example.

Try and concentrate on the primary focus, that way you will be able to clearly see the trees that make up the forest of globalization of which you are so interested.
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #11 - Sep 18th, 2006, 7:38am
Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 17th, 2006, 7:34pm:
Agengi, 'your' fight with Uncle Sam is not really what this thread is about, I am sure Mr. X would agree if I understand his theory correctly.

.....

Try and concentrate on the primary focus, that way you will be able to clearly see the trees that make up the forest of globalization of which you are so interested.

Look, some of people can’t 'walk and chew gum at the same time'.
They may not be able to deal with interrelated issues at one and the same time. That's understandable.

However, their lack of broad vision/deliberate efforts at distraction does not mean that Ajengi will neglect to 'focus' on what is significant to Jahmaica's self-determination, but which will be missed if we are distracted more superficial shenanigans and machinations of those who do not have the nation‘s best interest at heart.

If Stone polls are being used for propaganda purposes in order to distract and dissuade Jahmaicans from a more truthful perception of the actual state of affairs, it makes good sense to inquire about who is funding the Stone Poll propaganda efforts.

We know from their history that the 'regime changers', because of their imperial delusions, have their hands in EVERY national election on the planet. Jahmaican national election will be no exception!

The use of polls and things of that nature to influence public opinion, is only one evil effort used by the 'regime changers', but only as a first resort.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #12 - Sep 21st, 2006, 7:24pm
In general, opinion polls are inherently prone to errors. They represent a cross between scientific research and public relations advocacy. Consequently, its fundamental design is flawed. This can be further complicated by researchers trying to operationalize genuine social science research tool to fit into their political conceptual paradigm.

The Stone Team being sponsored and designed in an advocacy and special interest environment is operating within 'no win' boundaries similar to Wignal's methodology. They will not be able to deliver on the "momentum" strategy being employed and in the end will exhibit eratic findings that will reflect the "election winning reality" to save face, just like Wignal.

__________________________



http://www.ncpp.org/qajsa.htm


"What is the sampling error for the poll results?
Interviews with a scientific sample of 1,000 adults can accurately reflect the opinions of nearly 210 million American adults. That means interviews attempted with all 210 million adults – if such were possible – would give approximately the same results as a well-conducted survey based on 1,000 interviews.

What happens if another carefully done poll of 1,000 adults gives slightly different results from the first survey? Neither of the polls is "wrong." This range of possible results is called the error due to sampling, often called the margin of error.

This is not an "error" in the sense of making a mistake. Rather, it is a measure of the possible range of approximation in the results because a sample was used.

Pollsters express the degree of the certainty of results based on a sample as a "confidence level." This means a sample is likely to be within so many points of the results one would have gotten if an interview were attempted with the entire target population. Most polls are usually reported using the 95% confidence level.

Thus, for example, a "3 percentage point margin of error" in a national poll means that if the attempt were made to interview every adult in the nation with the same questions in the same way at the same time as the poll was taken, the poll's answers would fall within plus or minus 3 percentage points of the complete count’s results 95% of the time.

This does not address the issue of whether people cooperate with the survey, or if the questions are understood, or if any other methodological issue exists. The sampling error is only the portion of the potential error in a survey introduced by using a sample rather than interviewing the entire population. Sampling error tells us nothing about the refusals or those consistently unavailable for interview; it also tells us nothing about the biasing effects of a particular question wording or the bias a particular interviewer may inject into the interview situation. It also applies only to scientific surveys.

Remember that the sampling error margin applies to each figure in the results – it is at least 3 percentage points plus or minus for each one in our example. Thus, in a poll question matching two candidates for President, both figures are subject to sampling error.

What other kinds of factors can skew poll results?
The margin of sampling error is just one possible source of inaccuracy in a poll. It is not necessarily the source of the greatest possible error; we use it because it's the only one that can be quantified. And, other things being equal, it is useful for evaluating whether differences between poll results are meaningful in a statistical sense.

Question phrasing and question order are also likely sources of flaws. Inadequate interviewer training and supervision, data processing errors and other operational problems can also introduce errors. Professional polling operations are less subject to these problems than volunteer-conducted polls, which are usually less trustworthy. Be particularly careful of polls conducted by untrained and unsupervised college students. There have been several cases where the results were at least in part reported by the students without conducting any survey at all.

You should always ask if the poll results have been "weighted." This process is usually used to account for unequal probabilities of selection and to adjust slightly the demographics in the sample. You should be aware that a poll could be manipulated unduly by weighting the numbers to produce a desired result. While some weighting may be appropriate, other weighting is not. Weighting a scientific poll is only appropriate to reflect unequal probabilities or to adjust to independent values that are mostly constant"





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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #13 - Sep 21st, 2006, 11:10pm
Quote from Xx on Sep 21st, 2006, 7:24pm:
The Stone Team being sponsored and designed in an advocacy and special interest environment is operating within 'no win' boundaries similar to Wignal's methodology. They will not be able to deliver on the "momentum" strategy being employed and in the end will exhibit eratic findings that will reflect the "election winning reality" to save face, just like Wignal.

Any politician who is worth his salt is going to do his own polling, and will try to do it as objectively as possible.

Where power or wealth is involved outsiders can't be trusted to not be using their polling to their own special interest ends.

As long as we can't have any confidence that the people of the Stone Poll are not being bought off, the wiser minds are going to dismiss their poll.
Figures may not lie; but liars will figure a way to slant their polls to their desired end.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #14 - Sep 22nd, 2006, 5:00am
JLP leaving poll commentary to 'armchair' politicians, pundits

BY ERICA VIRTUE Observer writer
Friday, September 22, 2006



THE Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) said yesterday that it was not its policy to comment on poll findings as this was a job reserved for 'armchair' politicians experts and pundits.

"We don't enter into discussion on polls. We leave that to the 'armchair' politicians," JLP general secretary Karl Samuda told the Observer yesterday, in response to the latest Don Anderson/CVM polls that showed a dead heat for party support between the Opposition and the ruling People's National Party (PNP).

Said Samuda: "All the experts we hear every day and the pundits who are talking, we leave it [commentary] to them." Instead, Samuda said the party was "focussed" on a campaign "designed around a work programme".

Unlike Samuda, PNP general secretary Colin Campbell had a lot to say about the recent poll findings, which came two weeks after the completion of poll results published by the Observer and done by the Stone Organisation. The results showed the PNP as the party preferred to form the next government, and the preferred choice among the undecided voters.

"The poll results [Anderson/CVM] are consistent with other polls that have been done," Campbell told the Observer yesterday.
He added: "The results show four things. One, the JLP has been on the road for two months and have gotten no movement; two, the PNP support has declined; three, the uncommitted is swelling and, four, the uncommitted prefers the PNP."

The Anderson/CVM poll showed that among registered voters, 48.5 per cent of respondents would like to see the PNP form the next government, while 44.1 per cent said they would like to see the JLP. Six per cent said they did not know, and 1.3 per cent said none of the parties.

Again, among registered voters, 37.2 per cent said they were likely to vote for the PNP in September 2006, while 36.8 said the JLP.
The figure represents a 2.2 per cent increase over findings in October 2005, when 35 per cent of respondents said they would likely vote PNP and 34 per cent JLP.
But despite the JLP's official position on poll commentary, it uses the results to guide the party.

"Polls are not something that you can ignore," Samuda conceded.
"So, we use them as a guide. Sufficient to say that we are quite confident that the direction in which we are going, we will overtake the PNP and go on to form the next government," Samuda added.
But Campbell suggested that the figures would swing after the PNP's campaign hit the road"
_________________________


All polling being conducted are faced with the same inherent errors because its a design/discipline flaw fundamental to its core concept. In essence, its not science but cross bred. However, layered on top of those
fundamental flaws are 'man made ones' which reflect special interest/political leanings and funder biases.

There are polls and researchers and then there are "polls and researchers". There are researchers in search of samples, and then there are samples in search or researchers.

However, Xx will focus on the Stone Team because calculated correlations based on legimate social scientific theories embedded in relative stable variables such as: Race, gender, age, demographics and cultural mores indicate that the Stone Team possesses a higher risk of not being successful if they continue to follow the obvious method and strategy previously utilized by the Wignal team.

The rival poll(s) may benefit from lesser risks and chance just because they may be on the winning side in the end. Hence, my constructive criticism/critiques will fall on deaf ears and appear impotent if focused on the winner as opposed to the one that eventually comes in second. The Stone Team just happens to be a better guniea pig under the relative circumstances, however there are risks involved.



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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #15 - Sep 22nd, 2006, 2:29pm
Quote from Xx on Sep 22nd, 2006, 5:00am:
JLP leaving poll commentary to 'armchair' politicians, pundits

That position unwittingly makes sense; since the 'onlooker sees more of the game.'

Methinks that Xx is taking these political polls too seriously?

The thing is; polling is more of an art than a science.
The most that the 'best polling' available can do is to give some hint of a particular outcome. If done rigorously enough, these political polling is at most an intelligent guess.

The bigger issue with political polling is its propaganda effect.
When the poll seems to favor one side, then that side will milk its pro-outcome for all its worth to a gullible and unscientific public.

When the poll seems to favor the opponent, then the reverse spin is applied; such as "leaving poll commentary to 'armchair' politicians, pundits".

In other words, polling is all a superstitious game.
It's like reading tarot cards.
The propaganda effect of polling is the real deal, which will vary with the relative sophistication of the populace.

And when we have a relatively undereducated population, we have to be concerned about who is funding the pollsters, who is trying to accomplish a particular propaganda effect.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #16 - Sep 22nd, 2006, 9:39pm
Quote from Ajengi on Sep 22nd, 2006, 2:29pm:


The propaganda effect of polling is the real deal, which will vary with the relative sophistication of the populace.
And when we have a relatively undereducated population, we have to be concerned about who is funding the pollsters, who is trying to accomplish a particular propaganda effect.


Aj, what would be the "propaganda effect" intent? Maybe to manipulate the 11% of an 'unsophistocated' electorate to ultimately obtain a certain desired result?

Just asking, because 11% of any general electorate maybe unaware of the potential of the potent mix of psychological behaviorism and vox populi, and just may acquiese to a certain level of inducement. This maybe more prominent if voter turnout is low and consequently proportionally lowers that 11%. A man of your reasoning should be very concerned with this type of possibility as your feared regime change could be a reality.

Based on your statement above it looks like you may fall within that 11%, because on one hand you appear to be very concerned with manipulation, regime change and beneficiaries, but on the other you dismiss polling behavioral inducement as intelligent guess.

You have made your own argument of why you should take this election season polling seriously, if for nothing else the strong dollars being invested, as PhD are not cheap and the potential of opinions to be more than just an intelligent guess if designed and executed by master puppeteers, and the Stone team possesses such a potential.

My interest lies primarily within the "purist" nexus of scientific research and the bastard relative of opinion polling that lends itself to advocacy and manipulation. I have no dogs in race.

Anyway, you are entitled to your opinion and I support your right 100%.

I do not agree with your assertion that the general population is "undereducated", because there are degrees of intelligence different from "education" and 'Farmer George' was one of the most intelligent people(s) I've met. May not be "educated" but highly intelligent and in this case if exposed to the arguments of psychological behaviorism and vox populi they will be able to comprehend the concept and thwart the advances of the Stone team's "momentum rope-a- dope" strategy.
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #17 - Sep 23rd, 2006, 7:53am
Quote from Xx on Sep 22nd, 2006, 9:39pm:

Aj, what would be the "propaganda effect" intent? Maybe to manipulate the 11% of an 'unsophistocated' electorate to ultimately obtain a certain desired result?

You are warm.
However, I was thinking more in terms of the manipulation of the more than 89% of the population who are not mathematically sophisticated enough to understand the variables involved/chosen in polling and how they are weighed/used to determine the pollsters' final conclusions.

That is why I'm suggesting that the most important effect of the polls is the propaganda effect, how the final conclusion (accurate or inaccurate, reasonable or unreasonable) are used on the minds of the potential voters.
Even decided people are so influenced.

If the poll is pro-party A, like a 'good' rumor it will instill at least psychic confidence, and energize party members.
A pro-poll can also make some party members so lax that they are not even inclined to turn out on election day.
That is why prior to the election date, the alert party hacks will keep reminding voters to 'go out and vote' and not feel too confident about a positive poll result.

If the poll is anti-party A, then it will likely deflate party members and discourage them from proceeding with much vigor. Sure a negative polling result may make some party members redouble their efforts.

However, considering all of the above effects, the favorable polling results are going to have the edge because of its positive propaganda effect.

Quote:
Based on your statement above it looks like you may fall within that 11%, because on one hand you appear to be very concerned with manipulation, regime change and beneficiaries, but on the other you dismiss polling behavioral inducement as intelligent guess.

I am suggesting that the polling itself is an intelligent guess; because the variables and their interactions asumed to be involved in voter decision-making aren't scientific. It's all guess work done by intelligent people.

And no, I wouldn't fall in your 11%. I'm siding with the lesser evil.

Quote:
You have made your own argument of why you should take this election season polling seriously, if for nothing else the strong dollars being invested, as PhD are not cheap and the potential of opinions to be more than just an intelligent guess if designed and executed by master puppeteers, and the Stone team possesses such a potential.

Exactly!
Quote:
My interest lies primarily within the "purist" nexus of scientific research and the bastard relative of opinion polling that lends itself to advocacy and manipulation. I have no dogs in race.

I gather as much from your posts.
However, we shouldn't be unmindful of the fact that 'scientific research' is best done in a cohesive society, and that the chances are one side will better contribute to societal cohesion.
I would suggest that you get your dam dog in the 'race'. After all, that's what those expendable creatures are for, to go where you wouldn't want to bother going yourself.
Truth be told, all I have in the race is a 'dog'.


Quote:
I do not agree with your assertion that the general population is "undereducated", because there are degrees of intelligence different from "education" and 'Farmer George' was one of the most intelligent people(s) I've met. May not be "educated" but highly intelligent and in this case if exposed to the arguments of psychological behaviorism and vox populi they will be able to comprehend the concept and thwart the advances of the Stone team's "momentum rope-a- dope" strategy.

You don't need to 'agree' if you find it uncomfortable.
All you need to do is examine the level of education necessary to appreciate the intricacies of polling; and then ask yourself what percentage of Jahmaicans can appreciate the intricacies involved. What level of education is normally required to delve meaningfully into the kind of thinking that goes into polling.
I can asure you that your ordinary high school level of thinking need not apply.
And of the higher-education minds that may understand, they are going to come from the relatively fewer mathematical minded.

So all this poll talk is more propaganda that practical, more rumor mongering than reality.
Polling is essentially rumor mongering of the intelligentsia, high clas.s rumor.

And we know how Jahmaica is the ready dry bush for the rumor fires.
That is why I for one am more concerned about who may be trying to pull Jahmaican strings via polling, and to what end.

If the whole game was solely among Jahmaicans, I wouldn't mind too much; but I know for sure that the evil 'regime changers' do not just low an election in any country. They are into planet-wide influence. They will use an propaganda means necessary; but only as a first resort.
It would be better for Jahmaicans to not join devils to eventually fall into the abyss of evil.

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Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #18 - Sep 23rd, 2006, 8:11pm
Agenji, the methodology of opinion polling is much more sophistocated than your analysis, I think Mr. X would agree if I read his reasoning right.

You use the term "intelligent guess". My question is intelligent guess of what. Three sides to every story 1) your 2) mine 3) the truth. Which version is the intelligent gues you are referring to? Poll conclusions are relative if samples are not baselined and methodologies standardised.

We do agree though on your propanganda argument. Lastly I think you are underestimating the intellect of the Jamaican public. It a simple matter of exposing them to polling mechanics, and they will figure it out. Thats why Mr. X is here and this is not the first time he has been to this rodeo.
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #19 - Sep 24th, 2006, 4:45am
Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 23rd, 2006, 8:11pm:
Agenji, the methodology of opinion polling is much more sophistocated than your analysis, I think Mr. X would agree if I read his reasoning right.

You use the term "intelligent guess". My question is intelligent guess of what. Three sides to every story 1) your 2) mine 3) the truth. Which version is the intelligent gues you are referring to? Poll conclusions are relative if samples are not baselined and methodologies standardised.

We do agree though on your propanganda argument. Lastly I think you are underestimating the intellect of the Jamaican public. It a simple matter of exposing them to polling mechanics, and they will figure it out. Thats why Mr. X is here and this is not the first time he has been to this rodeo.

First you would claim that "the methodology of opinion polling is much more sophisticated".

Then you go on to suggest that Ajengi "underestimates the intellect of Jahmaica public".

Have you not notice the amount of hand wringing at the last set of exam results of our students?
And good many of these students are more intelligent than their parents who are being seduced into paying attention to the opinion poll propaganda.

What we both wished the intellect of Jahmaican public to be and where it is relative to the 'sophistication of opinion polls' are a chasm apart.

Opinion polling is at best an intelligent guess because polling is essentially about trying to predict the future.
And there is no intellectual means to actually determine the future. So what we are left with is a 'guesstimate'.

As every investor (who needs to know about the future than most people) is warned, "Past performances are no guarantee of future outcome."

Without a keen intuition to know the future, the best we can do is an intelligent guess about future outcome. That is what a 'good' opinion poll is going to do, guess!

Those who don't realize this of their polling (that they are guessing the future) are either like spiders who are caught up in their own web, or are propagandists desperate to delude others with their intelligent rumor, or both.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #20 - Sep 24th, 2006, 7:28am
Ajengi

First you would claim that "the methodology of opinion polling is much more sophisticated".

Have you not notice the amount of hand wringing at the last set of exam results of our students?
And good many of these students are more intelligent than their parents who are being seduced into paying attention to the opinion poll propaganda.

What we both wished the intellect of Jahmaican public to be and where it is relative to the 'sophistication of opinion polls' are a chasm apart.

Opinion polling is at best an intelligent guess because polling is essentially about trying to predict the future.
And there is no intellectual means to actually determine the future. So what we are left with is a 'guesstimate'.

__________________

Aj, its not about intelligent guessing per se. Its about deductive reasoning, validity and reliability. Not about predicting the future but creating the future. Far more sophistocated levels than a simple guesstimation analysis.

On a more pointed note from your reasoning looks like you should really summons your emergency team because with the mix of your assessment of the lack of intelligence of the Jamaican electorate and the competency of the Stone team 'your dog' may be on the verge of getting a dog gone whipping.

Your intuition wishes that your assessment is flawed based on your reasoning because then your greatest fear would materialize=regime change.

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Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #21 - Sep 24th, 2006, 10:27am
Ajengi, the Stone strategy is not primarily focused on guessing, its about providing enough propaganda strategy through polling to induce a certain response or non response from the electorate to occilate in concert with the overall opposition election strategy. From my own opinion I dont think it will be enough to offset the government own strategy and the chrasima and gender of the PM-Simpson, however it will make the race very interesting and precarious.





"The media, opinion polls, and the election
Published: February 24, 2000
By David W.F. Huang
Special to the TAIWAN HEADLINES

With the approach of the presidential election, Taiwan's media have been hotly competing to put out campaign-related news. At the same time, the results of public opinion polls have been released with dramatically increasing frequency.

What roles are the media and polls playing in the 2000 presidential elections? What influence do they really have? Are they beneficial to the development of democratic politics in Taiwan?

Although intellectual authority has been abused by a small minority, more outrageous still is the use of various survey statistics to mislead voters. Originally, public opinion polls were a scientific method used by positivists who employed rigorous questionnaire design, random sampling and appropriate statistical methodology to determine the opinions of the populace. But in terms of practical implementation, all the aforementioned aspects may have a degree of bias in Taiwan.

Even more vexing is that people who refuse to be interviewed tend to be those that are either relatively conservative, or are in the habit of answering "no opinion." If the scope of sampling is expanded, the ratio of those with "no opinion" or "socially expected answers" (e.g., "I expect Lien Chan to win") will increase in overall survey results. We can conclude that the methods of sampling and distribution greatly influence survey results.

Secondly, the design of a questionnaire can serve to induce certain answers. For example, if the beginning of the questionnaire contains a series of questions focusing primarily on a specific candidate, when the questionnaire later asks which candidate the voter supports, respondents will find it difficult not to say they support the candidate that has been "leading the charge the whole way."

Even if public opinion polls are meticulous in their procedures and random sampling, and strive to design their questionnaires to achieve the highest efficacy level and confidence level, academic experts seem prone to read too much into the statistical figures of survey results.

Few people pay attention to the actual margin of error. Consequently, many experts who research elections cannot help but develop a superstitious faith in "scientific precision," and infer far too much political significance from figures.

For example, one scholar in the past noted that a certain candidate's level of support had risen by 1.7% from one week to the next, and interpreted this to mean that the candidate had lured about 200,000 more voters into his camp. But if we consider that as a rule surveys only have a 95% confidence level and a 3% margin of error, it would be impossible to know whether that candidate's support had risen or fallen among eligible voters. Much less could we conclude the political significance of any increase in support.

Poll figures possess a persuasive scientific feel, yet errors generally occur in the process of executing the survey and interpreting the results. It is no wonder that in December 1999, Chen Shui-bian's camp alleged that their opponents had plotted to buy survey results, to create an election atmosphere in their favor.

Although the scholars and the polling organization in question have denied the allegations, the incident has led some people to label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon effect" (this refers to the Taiwanese expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side," i.e., people tend to jump on the bandwagon).

But in terms of quality of information, Taiwan's media and polling professionals still have a long way to go. In particular, they should make greater efforts to seek out accurate data and correct information, so that politicians do not drag them along by the nose. As it stands, it is very unlikely that Taiwan's media could achieve what American reporters did in the Watergate case.

Because the media broadcast all manner of rumors, most voters, who are limited in their time and their capacity to judge, half trust and half mistrust media reports.

In particular, when the people bestow high expectations on the mechanisms of democracy, but discover that in practice all politicians - regardless of their partisan affiliation - say one thing but do another, it is very likely that only politicians with personal charisma will have a chance to win. This is the lurking danger that must be guarded against in Taiwan's democratic political development"



I find the above to be consistent with both your estimate angle and Mr. X's overall reasoning of unscientific polls and political manipulation.
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #22 - Sep 24th, 2006, 3:36pm
Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 24th, 2006, 10:27am:
Ajengi, the Stone strategy is not primarily focused on guessing, its about providing enough propaganda strategy through polling to induce a certain response or non response from the electorate to occilate in concert with the overall opposition election strategy. From my own opinion I dont think it will be enough to offset the government own strategy and the chrasima and gender of the PM-Simpson, however it will make the race very interesting and precarious.

See, that's what I was afraid that you guys were hinting at: Stone poll being used on behalf of the opposition/sell outs.
The question is why; and who is funding it cold Stone?

And you are right; polls alone isn't going to do too much of a damage.
The problem is that the JLP is allied with the kind of forces that are willing to go beyond mere polling propaganda to achieve their 'regime change'.
And that is why it would be good to shed more light on the cold Stone propagandists.
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #23 - Sep 24th, 2006, 4:07pm
Quote from Xx on Sep 24th, 2006, 7:28am:
Aj, its not about intelligent guessing per se. Its about deductive reasoning, validity and reliability. Not about predicting the future but creating the future. Far more sophistocated levels than a simple guesstimation analysis.

I like the part about 'creating the future'; because that is exactly the aim of too many polling propagandists.
That is why I don't not trust pollsters: They usually have their own axes to grind.

Now, we can use all of the 'deductive reasoning' we like; but if we are dealing with polling variables (subjective opinions) that are neither reliable nor quantifiable, then any polling conclusion cannot be scientific. And what is not science is art, or pseudo science at best.

Pollsters can only use the phrase 'scientific polling' to seem important or feign credibility.
As we must know, the scientific method cannot be applied to every kind of event.
When the variables are 'known' only to one person and cannot be quantified by available means of measurements, then we are not going to have a science.

Just calling an activity scientific does not make it so. There are rigorous criteria to be met before we have science.
Quote:
On a more pointed note from your reasoning looks like you should really summons your emergency team because with the mix of your a**essment of the lack of intelligence of the Jamaican electorate and the competency of the Stone team 'your dog' may be on the verge of getting a dog gone whipping.

Come on. I only refer to the 'lack of adequate Jahmaican intelligence' with reference only to intricacies of polling, and how it is can be used (and probably is being used) by the intelligentsia as propaganda tools to spread rumors for particular ends.

In choosing leaders, we not only rely on the intellect (those who have any); we also use the heart -- everybody has one of those.
So in the end, I'm expecting that Jahmaicans are going to do the right thing again, and chose the lesser among evils.

Many Jahmaicans have their heart in the right place. That is why their present leader reflect the Jahmaican collective so well.

It's just that it is disquieting to know that the vultures are constantly circling and so many Jahmaicans are not seeing them for what they really are -- no good for Jahmaicans either in the short run or in the long run.

We had a 'regime change' in Haiti and Venezuela; and very few people even recognize them as be so, because of media manipulation and propaganda.

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Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #24 - Sep 25th, 2006, 6:34am
Quote from Ajengi on Sep 24th, 2006, 4:07pm:

Come on. I only refer to the 'lack of adequate Jahmaican intelligence' with reference only to intricacies of polling, and how it is can be used (and probably is being used) by the intelligentsia as propaganda tools to spread rumors for particular ends.



Based on your statements it appears that you need to get on the horn and start spreading the word that Mr. X is teaching "Stone unscientific polling nuances 101" in Jamaica Gleaner Go Local section.

With your concerns Mr. X must be very timely, you think?
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #25 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:22pm

Current Affairs Bulletin, 1975, 52, 24-30.

PUBLIC OPINION POLLS AND ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT: Social science or a form of journalism?


By John Ray
Psephology - or in lay terms public opinion polling - has been described as failing between social science and journalism.

Of course it is argued, and rightly, that polls serve to indicate public opinion at the time of their being taken. How accurate are they in terms of prediction? In this area there have been notable instances of error: for examples - on the outcome of the Whitlam government's price and wage control referendum; in America of the Truman defeat of Dewey; and in Great Britain the 1970 defeat of Wilson by Heath when Labour supporters were lulled by the polls into such a sense of victory that large numbers stayed away from the polling booths.

One of the disconcerting aspects of the public opinion polls is that very few people appear to know very much about the methods employed in polling, about the techniques of sampling, and the numbers of views canvassed. How serious is sampling error and are question-framing and interviewer bias important?

Methods of questioning

Finding out what people really think is a problem as old as the human race. Social scientists have not solved it. In their years of working on it, however, they have come up with some ways of going about the task that offer some improvement on the simple formula: "Just ask people".

In asking people directly about their attitudes, however, there are still two major alternative ways of going about. it: the closed-ended and the open-ended methods. In the open-ended method we simply ask a person (for example): "What do you think about Aborigines?" and take down whatever he says. In the closed-ended method we ask: "Do you think Aborigines are in general hard workers?" and the person is given the option only of replying "Yes", "No" or "Not sure".

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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #26 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:23pm
Open or closed?

Opinion research organisations use both closed- and open-ended methods. The closed-ended is the method most used for political polls and the like, whereas the open-ended method tends to be used in some market-research applications. The closed-ended method is sometimes criticised as imposing an artificial choice upon the respondent, while the open-ended method enables people to put things in their own words. The catch, however, is that once you enable people to put things in their own words, you have no objective or immediately quantifiable way of comparing people. In many cases you cannot even set up such simple categories as "percentage for" and "percentage against". To overcome this, open-ended surveys are almost always followed by a stage of "coding" the answers given - i.e., putting them into categories. This involves a lot of work and contains an inevitable element of arbitrariness. For this reason many researchers feel that it is better to give the respondents themselves the categories to start with and let them make their own choice between them.

It follows then that the best procedure in opinion measurement is an initial pilot survey of the open-ended type to decide the response categories to be used, followed by the major survey in closed-ended format. This comes near to getting the best of all possible worlds, in that the categories of opinion people are given to choose between are not artificial constructions but rather the type of words that people have been shown empirically to use most. At the same time the results are completely objective and beyond dispute - to the point where they can even be machine-scored.

Public opinion polls, however, often fail to carry out this full procedure. In so many surveys the statements given to people to respond to are composed not by the people themselves but by self-styled "experts" in a field where expertise is very much a matter of opinion. This is not, of course, true of routine political surveys where the questions to be asked are well-tried and the product of long sifting.

Balance against direction of wording

All questionnaire research seems to be plagued by the "acquiescence" problem. This is the tendency of people when answering survey questions to reply "yes" without really considering the questions at all. The phenomenon arises for a number of reasons. The most common is probably indifference. People reply "yes" believing that to be the easiest way to get rid of the interviewer. Another reason is that the question may be in some way obscure or complex and, rather than think it out, the person again simply says "yes" as the earliest answer.

There is, of course, no way in which we can force people to stop being indifferent. One thing we can do, however, is ensure that the effect of indifference is evenly spread over all possible answers, so that one answer does not have the numbers choosing it artificially inflated at the expense of the others.

The way we do this is by the technique of "split plots". We divide our sample of people into two halves. To one half we give a negative form of the question and to the other half we give a positive form.

Pollsters do not of course ignore this problem altogether. Questions are often worded to require a more substantive answer than either "yes" or "no" - for instance by giving a list of options (such as political parties) from which to choose. This however may simply make the problem more intractable. One exchanges the acquiescence problem for the "donkey vote" problem - i.e., people simply number their preferences straight down the page as 1, 2, 3, 4. The proper "split plots" control technique is seen as too laborious and is seldom used. Other available control techniques, such as "balancing", are usable only on multi-item "scales" - which, as we have seen, polls seldom use.

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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #27 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:24pm
Reliability and validity

Psychometricians use the words "reliability" and "validity" in a technical sense to refer to two indispensable characteristics that any form of attitude measurement must have if it is to be regarded as accurate: it must be repeatable and still give the same answer (reliability) and the answer given must be one that does in fact reflect what it purports to reflect (validity). There are standard procedures for ascertaining both of these but one could be forgiven the impression that all these procedures are totally unknown to most pollsters.

The simple test for reliability is to give a question or scale to a group of people twice and see how highly the answers on the two occasions correlate. As a short-cut, however, one can (only where scales are used) use the "split-half" procedure mentioned earlier. Use the correlation between any two halves of the scale to estimate the correlation between two occasions of administering the whole scale. Many scales and many single questions prove not to be reliable when a test is done and there generally in fact needs to be considerable trial and error item selection before reliable measurement can be achieved. When pollsters omit such considerations, therefore, they seriously reduce the value of their results.

Validity is a much more involved question. When we examine the validity of a conservatism index or scale, for instance, we ask ourselves: "Do the people who give the conservative answer on these questions actually act in the conservative way?" As has often been shown, attitude indexes very often do not predict behaviour. Perhaps the most generally satisfactory way of assessing such a correlation is to get independent ratings of each person's behaviour from others who know him and see whether what others say about him and what he says about himself actually do go together. Some sets of questions do produce a high correlation in such circumstances while others do not. Pollsters often seem to assume a high correlation without any prior proof whatsoever.


Another factor that should be looked for in sample surveys is some statement about how likely it is that the result given will actually represent what the population as a whole would say. The results obtained from a sample do differ in variable ways from the results one would find by surveying the population as a whole. In a properly drawn sample, however, these variations are both small and their likely magnitude something that can be estimated. This estimate (or "standard error") is a simple and routine computation carried out by almost any computer program that polling organisations use to process their results. Practically never however does this statistic find its way into press reports of polling results. It is therefore of some importance not to take seriously reports that two groups (of, say, voters) show small differences in their preferences for various things. A very small difference may in fact lie within the range of variation that the "standard error" would tell us could occur by chance sampling variations alone. When there is doubt about whether this explanation for any difference should be entertained, there is no alternative but to seek from the polling organisation directly fuller details than they release to the press. Unless one is either lucky or persuasive, this can cost money. Until their results have become outdated, polling organisations must - in order to support themselves - charge for what information they provide.

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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #28 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:26pm
Polling error

There have been some notable errors in poll predictions. The worst one so far by Australian polls was the prediction of the outcome of the Whitlam government's price and wage control referendum. From the polls that were published (particularly McNair's "Gallup" poll), no one expected the price control proposal to be defeated. It seems that what went wrong on that occasion was a last-minute mood of caution on the part of voters when actually confronted with the voting decision. They were not sure enough that they understood all the complicated arguments and divisions of opinion surrounding referendum proposals to give the government the go-ahead it sought. Last-minute changes of mood in the voters are of course something that no poll can allow for. The best one can ask is that they do truly report opinion that is consistently held.

A more important sort of polling error is the so-called "seldep" (self-defeating prophecy) and "selfup" (self-fulfilling prophecy). The most notable example of a "seldep" was probably the unexpected triumph of Mr Edward Heath in the 1970 British elections. What appears to have happened on that occasion was that the widespread predictions of Mr Heath's defeat led far too many Labour voters to stay at home and not bother to vote - confident that their man was in. Unlike Australia, Britain does not have compulsory voting. The Heath episode, then, leads to the ironical conclusion that polls will predict best when people have no confidence in them. This is at least a self-correcting system - melancholy a prospect though it may be to the pollster himself.


A final, rather paradoxical, point about polling error is that a poll can be accurate even when it appears to fail to predict the right winner. To the general public, a poll that picks the right political party to win an election but gets the margin of victory quite wrong is good enough. Logically, however, such results indicate good luck more than scientifically accurate polling. A more commendable achievement is to get the percentage vote very close to the actual one, even if the slight margin of error does lead to picking the wrong candidate in a close contest. Nowadays polls, almost always do this. Whether they pick the right winner or not, their margin of error is normally very small. This is a strong indication of the adequacy of their sampling methods.

Finally, it seems appropriate to revert now to the question raised at the beginning of this article: what is the role of polls in creating opinions? As well as influencing voter turnout do they also influence opinion? It would certainly seem that they do influence politicians' opinions.

The influence of polling on public opinion as such however is much more contentious. There is a possible "bandwagon" effect of people wanting to be on what they are told is the winning side and there is also the possibility of an opposite "underdog" effect of people wanting to give support to someone whom they feel sorry for because he is said to have little chance of winning.

A more serious charge against polls as serving a political cause is that the pollster can word his questions in such a way as to produce a particular desired result. Does this mean that polls are "meaningless"? Not necessarily, but it does serve as a warning against reliance on one question only, or questions that are worded in one direction only. "

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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #29 - Sep 26th, 2006, 10:27pm
Conclusion

To sum up, polls are in general no better than their market demands. This means a generally fairly low standard except so far as the sampling itself is concerned. More use of "lie" scales, less arbitrary judgment about the wording of questions, less reliance on single questions, balance against acquiescence, proof of reliability and validity and fuller descriptive statistics are all areas in considerable need of improvement. Greater sophistication in the academic discipline known as "psychometrics" Would appear to be what most pollsters need.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #30 - Sep 26th, 2006, 11:36pm
Ultimately election polling in Jamaica is essentially a high stakes 3 card game. The most important elements are: Who is paying, perceived benefits and alliances. Its not about science, or validity and reliability of the opinion of the Jamaican electorate. If this was so, then there would be other competing important events in the general society that could use opinion polling to influence public policy and improve the overall quality of the peoples livity.

The polling game itself will contour interesting back and forth in the general relative arena and make for interesting conversations. However, behind the strategies, methodologies and tactics are deadly serious games of: inducing self fulfilling prophecies in the form of the Stone-rope-a-dope, i.e. water melon effect/bangwaggonism to enhance the chances of special interest, in essence, PR.

This type of gaming is glaringly different from genuine "scientific inquiry" and should not be confused as such.


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Reply #31 - Sep 27th, 2006, 12:39am
Quote from Xx on Sep 26th, 2006, 10:22pm:
One of the disconcerting aspects of the public opinion polls is that very few people appear to know very much about the methods employed in polling, about the techniques of sampling, and the numbers of views canva**ed. How serious is sampling error and are question-framing and interviewer bias important?

Exactly my point vis-à-vis the relative undereducation of average Jahmaican voters and these propaganda polls of the intelligentsia rumormongers and political propagandists.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #32 - Sep 27th, 2006, 6:17am
Aj, Jamaica is no different from any other country generally when it comes to the mechanics of polling. The lack of knowledge statistically is consistent proportionally relative to population size across borders. And, a significant amount of those that possess some familarity with the topic lack the real technical understanding and end up in the same boat.
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Reply #33 - Sep 27th, 2006, 8:12am
Quote from Xx on Sep 27th, 2006, 6:17am:
Aj, Jamaica is no different from any other country generally when it comes to the mechanics of polling. The lack of knowledge statistically is consistent proportionally relative to population size across borders. And, a significant amount of those that possess some familarity with the topic lack the real technical understanding and end up in the same boat.

I think that it is common sense that the impact of the use of polling as a propaganda tool is going to depend on the relative level of education/literacy within the populations, yes?

The more educationally sophisticated the population, the more likely it is that the voters are either going to understand polling mechanics and not be fooled by propaganda; or, voters recognizing that because they lack the necessary intellectual skills for polling, then the more likely they are of becoming victims of polling propagandists and their intellectual rumor mongering.
Therefore the more educated the population, the more likely it is going to be able to see political polling for what it really is, mainly a propaganda ploy.

Don‘t get me wrong. I do recognize that there will be some researchers, without an axe to grind, who will try to be as objective as they possible can in their efforts to make their polling jive with reality.

However, when it comes to the quest for political power/wealth in this yuga, greed rather than objectivity is a monster that will most likely raise its ugly head.
We should want to cut that head for the greater good.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #34 - Sep 27th, 2006, 8:18pm
Quote from Ajengi on Sep 27th, 2006, 8:12am:

I think that it is common sense that the impact of the use of polling as a propaganda tool is going to depend on the relative level of education/literacy within the populations, yes?

The more educationally sophisticated the population, the more likely it is that the voters are either going to understand polling mechanics and not be fooled by propaganda; or, voters recognizing that because they lack the necessary intellectual skills for polling, then the more likely they are of becoming victims of polling propagandists and their intellectual rumor mongering.
Therefore the more educated the population, the more likely it is going to be able to see political polling for what it really is, mainly a propaganda ploy.
b]


I dont necessarily agree with your statement (I see you choose your words carefully). I dont see a direct linear relationship that lends itself to such a broad general statement. If you have empirical validation then provide citation.

Most elder 'Farmer George' may not know how to read or write but do understand the logics of plant genetics, chemistry, numbers, economic, environmental science etc. etc. There is more to understanding than just reading, writing and CXC.

The minds of such individuals are more than capable of understanding the opinion polling game and propaganda. Your theory maybe common sense but its not supported by scalable measurements.

The inverse may also be valid, consequently confounding your theory even more. See link #1.

http://www.willamette.edu/cla/math/articles/marilyn.htm

The ultimate difference to me is not education level perse, but how well folks in the know that possess access to media and public outlets present a balancing of information regarding opinion polling fallacy. You never know how information germinates, the key is planting the seed and if a person does not possess some level of mental retardation and is relatively 'socialized' within their culture, then they possess the necessary prerequisites of understanding polling fallacy.


-----------------------


All you need to know about opinion polling: See kink below

http://whyfiles.org/009poll/index.html



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Reply #35 - Sep 27th, 2006, 9:53pm
Quote from Xx on Sep 27th, 2006, 8:18pm:
The ultimate difference to me is not education level perse, but how well folks in the know that possess access to media and public outlets present a balancing of information regarding opinion polling fallacy. You never know how information germinates, the key is planting the seed and if a person does not possess some level of mental retardation and is relatively 'socialized' within their culture, then they possess the necessary prerequisites of understanding polling fallacy.

If that is how you think, then you are helping to make my point by default; because it is bordering on naivety to expect 'balancing of information' via the media.

While it would be nice if the media were an educational source to effect the end you imagine, the reality is something else.
The media are business enterprises whose primary goal is to make a profit. And they are willing to sell propaganda from themselves or from 'advertisers' if that is what the media think the populace will buy at a particular point in time.

And you keep mentioning the mental skills of your "Farmer George". His mental capacity is no doubt fine and dandy; and I am not about to question it.
However, it is going to take effective education to structure rigorously the thinking of "Farmer George" so as to make his mind capable of handling subjects of some intellectual sophistication as opinion polling is.

If that weren't the case, then what would be the use of years of deliberate and structured mental practices during formal schooling, if not to enable the ‘farmer Georges’ of Jahmaica to maximize whatever mental potential they may bring to the table to begin with?

One can consider your "Farmer Georges'" mental abilities as one would a 'diamonds in the rough': There would be so much more value to those abilities in appreciating the media tricksters, if only they were polished with effective educational practices.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #36 - Sep 27th, 2006, 11:42pm
Quote from Ajengi on Sep 27th, 2006, 9:53pm:

If that is how you think, then you are helping to make my point by default; because it is bordering on naivety to expect 'balancing of information' via the media.

While it would be nice if the media were an educational source to effect the end you imagine, the reality is something else.


And you keep mentioning the mental skills of your "Farmer George". His mental capacity is no doubt fine and dandy; and I am not about to question it.
However, it is going to take effective education to structure rigorously the thinking of "Farmer George" so as to make his mind capable of handling subjects of some intellectual sophistication as opinion polling is.





Aj, your intepretations are too narrow e.g. the word media. Where we are here is media, and my reasonings are not being censored. With the internet and a proliferation of interactive web sites, chat rooms, talk back forums etc. we have new media outlets that presents a whole new reality and potential. Yes the avenue is there to provide balance, if one & one could only see it.


Your statements on Farmer George is a diss. First and foremost the basic elements of Opinion Polling is not intellectually sophistocated, again it is not science. If you can understand the 3 card samfye then you can understand the basic elements of Opinion Polling, its that simple. If you cannot conceptualize that then you are buying into the same hype that you are running from, and completely missing the point. Maybe too much 'middle class' structured book learning without a pragmatic balance?

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Reply #37 - Sep 28th, 2006, 11:41am
Quote from Xx on Sep 27th, 2006, 11:42pm:

Aj, your intepretations are too narrow e.g. the word media. Where we are here is media, and my reasonings are not being censored. With the internet and a proliferation of interactive web sites, chat rooms, talk back forums etc. we have new media outlets that presents a whole new reality and potential. Yes the avenue is there to provide balance, if one & one could only see it.

Take it easy there, Malcolm Xx.

Usually when people say 'media' in the context you presented it, they usually mean 'mas.s media'.

There were other additional/low-tech means of disseminating information (word-a-mouth, say) that existed along with 'mas.s media'; but we didn't consider these additional means 'the media'.

Now if you want to include additional means of information dissemination as 'media' because they are now hi-tech, then you just have to let me know; because these new additions still do not blanket the 'information space' the way that traditional mas.s media continue to do.

Quote:
Your statements on Farmer George is a diss. First and foremost the basic elements of Opinion Polling is not intellectually sophistocated, again it is not science. If you can understand the 3 card samfye then you can understand the basic elements of Opinion Polling, its that simple. If you cannot conceptualize that then you are buying into the same hype that you are running from, and completely missing the point. Maybe too much 'middle class' structured book learning without a pragmatic balance?

You know I never understand your '3 card samfye'?
There we just somethings I never bother to learn. Did I miss much?

Anyway, there was never any intention to diss your 'farmer george'. After all, without him we'd starve, right?

Only, we wanted to leave no doubt about the importance of the 'farmer georges' of Jahmaica (and those who may emulate them if they are placed on a semi-false pedestal) that maximizing whatever mental talent they have to begin with is of vital importance.

Culturing the mind in a deliberate and structured way within an organized and effective educatinal environment will make farmer george's mental potential yield a lot more output than if it were just allowed to grow 'wild' like his weeds.

Because opinion polling is not a science, it means that it is going to be more challenging to the untrained mind.
And because it is touted by intellectuals, it is very likely that 'farmer george' will suffer from a complex and be inclined to believe that he would be in way over his head should he try to deal with the actual mental gymnastics of polling that is promoted by intellectuals.

All the intellectuals would have to do to your 'farmer george' (should he have any objections to the polling) is to tell him that he is in way over his head intellectually. That would effectively shut down farmer george along with his unproved objections.

You see, Mr Xx, I'm of two minds with the polling.

Even though I realize that opinion polls can and are used wittingly/unwittingly as political propaganda tools, I also recognize that polling can have practical value if it is approached as objectively as possible by researchers with no axe to grind.

So while 'farmer george' can be made alert to the propaganda value of opinion polls, without formal training of the mind to understand how pollsters are able to dupe him, farmer george is not going to be able to satisfying himself as to how and when he's being tricked by pollsters, that is if he is tricked at all.
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Reply #38 - Sep 28th, 2006, 7:13pm
Ajengi, to ease your fumbling pain of trying to explain away Mr X's correction of your faux pas here is the definition of media:

Media
1. Plural of medium.

2. Channels of communication that serve many diverse functions, such as offering a variety of entertainment with either mass or specialized appeal, communicating news and information, or displaying advertising messages.

I concur with two points regarding your post: narrow and middle class rebel. But its all good.
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Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #39 - Sep 28th, 2006, 7:16pm

U.S. military seeks to deploy new weapon: polls, PR

By Walter Pincus
The Washington Post
Posted September 28 2006

WASHINGTON • As violence continues in Iraq, the military is looking for additional ways to fight, using opinion polls and public relations.
The Multi-National Command in Baghdad wants to hire a private firm to conduct polling and focus groups in Iraq "to assess the effectiveness of operations as they relate to gaining and maintaining popular support," according to a notice the Department of the Army posted Wednesday.


"Since the end of major combat operations in Operation Iraqi Freedom, Coalition Forces have sought to build robust and positive relations with the people of Iraq and to assist the Iraqi people in forming a new government," the notice says, posted on the government contracting Web site FBODaily.com.

Polling and focus groups are being sought as "important tools for assessing changes in the level of a population's support for various groups," according to the posting.

Polling in Iraq is so sensitive that the contract proposal states that the winning firm must ensure that those being questioned "are not aware of the survey sponsor's identity." One member of a firm that has conducted polling for the Baghdad command said Wednesday that "if someone out there believes the client is the U.S. government, the persons doing the polling could get killed." The official insisted on anonymity for fear of putting his company's employees at risk.

Word of the proposed new contract comes a day after release of a State Department poll that found that majorities in all regions of Iraq, except the Kurdish areas, want U.S. and allied troops to withdraw immediately and that their departure would make people feel safer. It also follows release of an April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism that found that U.S. military action has become a "cause celebre" in the Arab world and has fueled anti-American feelings in Iraq and the Middle East.

Also Wednesday: The Baghdad command confirmed that it has awarded a two-year, $12.4 million contact to handle strategic communications management to the Lincoln Group, the same Washington-based public relations company that was found late last year to have been paying money to place favorable articles in the Iraqi media.

William Dixon, a spokesman for Lincoln, said Wednesday he could not comment on the details of particular contracts and deferred to the Baghdad command for any statement.

Lincoln was the lowest of seven bidders on what was viewed as a $20 million contract to aid the military commanders in Baghdad in getting what they considered the positive side of their operations in the media, according to one of the bidders who was briefed on the contract. The contract calls for providing media strategy such as setting up news conferences and public speeches, media training to military commanders as well as Iraqi government officials, and monitoring of Middle East and some U.S. media including The Washington Post, The New York Times and major networks. The monitoring would also include creating a database of stories graded as favorable or unfavorable.

Lincoln's practices have attracted controversy, most recently because of a story in the current issue of Harper's Magazine. In it, Willem Marx, an Oxford University student, described working for Lincoln in Baghdad last summer and using a spreadsheet listing amounts charged by Iraqi newspapers to run stories written by Army personnel, at costs that ran from $50 to $1,500.

At least one of the bidders who lost out to Lincoln is considering a challenge to the award based on Lincoln's past record.

Lincoln's spokesman dismissed the article's claims. "The former intern's exaggerated and misleading account does not accurately depict the firm's activities in the emerging markets and challenging environments," Dixon said.

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Posts: 10 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #40 - Sep 28th, 2006, 7:27pm
Quote from Ajengi on Sep 28th, 2006, 11:41am:


You know I never understand your '3 card samfye'?
There we just somethings I never bother to learn. Did I miss much?



You better find a Farmer George and ask him, you may learn a thing or two.

How would you classify that one within your echelons of educational/intellectual continuum. Farmer George, an unsophistocated unlearnt individual teaching a man of your levels intellectually? Interesting is'nt it. I think thats a classic example of what Mr. X is trying to point out to you. Are you picking up??
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Reply #41 - Sep 28th, 2006, 7:35pm
Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 28th, 2006, 7:13pm:
Ajengi, to ease your fumbling pain of trying to explain away Mr X's correction of your faux pas here is the definition of media:

Media
1. Plural of medium.

2. Channels of communication that serve many diverse functions, such as offering a variety of entertainment with either mass or specialized appeal, communicating news and information, or displaying advertising messages.

I'm not very familiar with Stone Poll-ology. From reading your comments I have a question.

Is polling a function of a media house?

X - yu said this (Go Local) is media ... as per the above defintion it is, but it doesnt account for "reach"
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Reply #42 - Sep 29th, 2006, 7:01am
Quote from Bwoy1der on Sep 28th, 2006, 7:35pm:

I'm not very familiar with Stone Poll-ology. From reading your comments I have a question.

Is polling a function of a media house?

X - yu said this (Go Local) is media ... as per the above defintion it is, but it doesnt account for "reach"



Bwoywonder, polling in some respects have evolved into a media house function, it appears to be a match made in Journalism heaven. However, it is still used extensively in academic circle also; but intent, design and ethics may vary.

I agree with you on the madia reach comment, however my reasoning was based on 'media' not media reach or mass media.

Aj, no not Malcolm. "Xx" denotes scientific symbolism. I understand your 'pun' though, but I thought I should clear that up.


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Reply #43 - Sep 29th, 2006, 8:31am
Quote from Xx on Sep 29th, 2006, 7:01am:



Bwoywonder, polling in some respects have evolved into a media house function, it appears to be a match made in Journalism heaven. However, it is still used extensively in academic circle also; but intent, design and ethics may vary.

I agree with you on the madia reach comment, however my reasoning was based on 'media' not media reach or mass media.

Aj, no not Malcolm. "Xx" denotes scientific symbolism. I understand your 'pun' though, but I thought I should clear that up.


Does anyone know what the following access denial syntax means: I hope its routine and not an attempt to censor Xx reasoning because in cyber there are always option relative to public media websites access.

Usage: {path}/adloger.php?adid={adid}
eg: htp://ww.jamaica-gleaner.com/tools/adlogger.php?adid=236


the only people capable are Sirr, myself and a hacker.. ....wasnt me, doubt it was Sirr........or a hacker. ..

...and since you posted it, essentially turning it into a link, I'm disabling it ... 8)





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Reply #44 - Sep 29th, 2006, 9:01am
Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 28th, 2006, 7:13pm:
Ajengi, to ease your fumbling pain of trying to explain away Mr X's correction of your faux pas here is the definition of media:

Media
1. Plural of medium.

2. Channels of communication that serve many diverse functions, such as offering a variety of entertainment with either mass or specialized appeal, communicating news and information, or displaying advertising messages.

I concur with two points regarding your post: narrow and middle class rebel. But its all good.

Better to invest the time in understanding how words derive/take on their meanings due to popular usage than engaging in the infantile act of cutting and pasting 'dictionary' entries.
Did you by chance ask permission from Mr Xx before you seek to misrepresent him?
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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #45 - Sep 29th, 2006, 9:07am
Quote from Xx on Sep 29th, 2006, 7:01am:


Bwoywonder, polling in some respects have evolved into a media house function, it appears to be a match made in Journalism heaven. However, it is still used extensively in academic circle also; but intent, design and ethics may vary.

nuff said!
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Reply #46 - Sep 29th, 2006, 6:04pm
Quote from Bwoy1der on Sep 29th, 2006, 8:31am:


the only people capable are Sirr, myself and a hacker.. ....wasnt me, doubt it was Sirr........or a hacker. ..

...and since you posted it, essentially turning it into a link, I'm disabling it ... 8)





Bwoywonder Respect.

Aj dont watch Supporter he means well and understands the topic at hand on certain levels. But we all have our styles lets keep shining the light.

Aj comment on the Iraq opinion polling article and relate to Stone strategy.
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Reply #47 - Sep 29th, 2006, 7:17pm
Quote from Xx on Sep 29th, 2006, 6:04pm:



Bwoywonder Respect.

Aj dont watch Supporter he means well and understands the topic at hand on certain levels. But we all have our styles lets keep shining the light.

Aj comment on the Iraq opinion polling article and relate to Stone strategy.

It's not an "Iraq opinion polling".
It's the invading regime changers' efforts to gather the kinds of information that can be used to 'better' subjugate the population deliver a good dose of propaganda all over the place.

When I first read about US polling in the news, the thing that grabbed my attention most was the commitment of many Iraqi patriots to destroy traitors who would foolishly/insanely go out of their way help the invaders gather their devilish data.

The 'good' parts of the polling will be used 'in house' to give the invaders useful information about just where they stand, and the 'bad' part will be spun into lies for public consumption to paint a rosier picture than the world knows exist.

Now, because I understand fully well how the divisive 'divide and rule' regime changers operate, and because I also realize that there are some among our treasonous and traitorous so-called leaders who are more than eager to lie like shameless hos underneath the regime changers, I'm concerned that they will take their dollars and do propaganda polling on Jahmaicans to influence regime change contrary to what the average Jahmaicans may aspire after.

You may know a lot more than you are letting on about just where the loyalties of the Stone people lie?
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Reply #48 - Oct 1st, 2006, 6:06am
Quote from X_Supporter on Sep 28th, 2006, 7:13pm:
Ajengi, to ease your fumbling pain of trying to explain away Mr X's correction of your faux pas here is the definition of media:

Media
1. Plural of medium.

2. Channels of communication that serve many diverse functions, such as offering a variety of entertainment with either mass or specialized appeal, communicating news and information, or displaying advertising messages.


If the discussion was focused on word origination then my response would have been angled in that direction. Sorry I mash the man corn.

Bwoy1der, obviously Mr. X is ahead of the curve or have some serious connections. The following article validates his reasoning directly.

*****

A world of new media opening up in Jamaica
published: Sunday | October 1, 2006

Ross Sheil, Staff Reporter

Established media in Jamaica is still playing catch up with overseas companies in developing online content, but a number of young and energetic Jamaicans have been using the platform to develop their own careers ... and are making money.

Internationally large players such as the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and the Washington Post have made significant adjustments to their content to compete in a market where the 'dead tree' product of newspapers, and even television and radio, cannot keep pace with the Internet.

Regularly equipped

For instance, Post reporters are regularly equipped with cameras to record video, stills and audio, while the BBC is increasingly benefiting from so-called 'citizen journalism' - people submitting their own content, typically photographs, often taken with cellular phone cameras; as well as text-messaging their thoughts and ideas.

Local photographer Peter Dean Rickards, 37, started small with his own website, www.afflictedyard.com, providing a relatively uncensored insight into Jamaican culture, but instead of a cellphone camera, he had an even more basic one megapixel digital camera.

This, he said, "accidentally" led to him becoming a professional photographer with the website functioning as an online portfolio attracting clients from here and abroad, ranging from corporate clients to style magazines.

Huge potential

"I think the potential is huge and perhaps over time, these alternative media sources - and I don't just means blogs - will put pressure on the established media to create better products," said Rickards.

"I see it happening already in television but there's plenty of room for growth. If established media houses don't respond to the increased challenges made by independents, it's my opinion that the public will simply begin to overlook them."

Claude Mills, 29, and photographer Carlington Wilmot, 26, who at one time both worked with Jamaica's most established newspaper, The Gleaner, have started www.yardflex.net, a simple online blog with daily entries covering the local entertainment scene.

Within a year, they expanded into newspaper format and after four bi-monthly issues and realising that most of their traffic came from expatriate Jamaican communities in the United States, their fifth issue has now been printed in South Florida, with distribution also in New York, Chicago and Toronto.

"It's not been easy," said Mills, a former reporter. "However, from something small we've developed a following which we're only just beginning to serve and we'll see how much that might grow."

Growth

"All of these are growing at an average rate of 2,000 new members per day," said Frazer.

He now employs two others, and given the massive success of the likes of MySpace and Hi5, Frazer believes he has a solid business model.


"There are so many niche markets to go after, which is why I have started to launch different sites," said Frazer.

"These people tend to be online for much of the day, either at home or at work, and we are talking about the 24 to 35-year-old demographic that advertisers want."

Jamaica's foremost communication school, the Caribbean Institute for Media and Communication (CARIMAC) at the University of the West Indies, is now fund-raising to expand so it can offer more courses. There are plans to include online distance learning courses and online journalism for those already in the profession.....

According to CARIMAC director, Drs. Marjan deBruin, the media locally are still at a stage of merger rather than convergence, combining different media platforms. But with the level of convergence in the international media, it would be nonsensical she believes, for graduates to leave her department having learned to operate in only one platform.

"The challenge for all of us in the industry, and I am including CARIMAC in this, is that we need to keep up," said deBruin.

"However, there is the issue of resources and of course finding people who have the experience to teach the courses. Furthermore, you have to consider that with technological changes, as with these, it takes young people to bridge the gaps, but this is not the demographic of people who are the decision makers within the newsroom," she said.

The Gleaner, which has over 120 million hits per month, its online arm Go-Jamaica (www.go-jamaica.com) 'Discussion Forum' will launch a new suite of online content today, October 1.


- ross.sheil@gleanerjm.com


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Reply #49 - Oct 1st, 2006, 5:41pm
Quote from X_Supporter on Oct 1st, 2006, 6:06am:
"I think the potential is huge and perhaps over time, these alternative media sources - and I don't just means blogs - will put pressure on the established media to create better products," said Rickards.

"I see it happening already in television but there's plenty of room for growth. If established media houses don't respond to the increased challenges made by independents, it's my opinion that the public will simply begin to overlook them."

Moreover, most Jahmaicans still rely on the "established media" for most of their information.
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Reply #50 - Oct 2nd, 2006, 9:58am
Quote from X_Supporter on Oct 1st, 2006, 6:06am:


If the discussion was focused on word origination then my response would have been angled in that direction. Sorry I mash the man corn.

Bwoy1der, obviously Mr. X is ahead of the curve or have some serious connections. The following article validates his reasoning directly.

*****

A world of new media opening up in Jamaica
published: Sunday | October 1, 2006

Ross Sheil, Staff Reporter

Established media in Jamaica is still playing catch up with overseas companies in developing online content, but a number of young and energetic Jamaicans have been using the platform to develop their own careers ... and are making money.

Internationally large players such as the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and the Washington Post have made significant adjustments to their content to compete in a market where the 'dead tree' product of newspapers, and even television and radio, cannot keep pace with the Internet.

Regularly equipped

For instance, Post reporters are regularly equipped with cameras to record video, stills and audio, while the BBC is increasingly benefiting from so-called 'citizen journalism' - people submitting their own content, typically photographs, often taken with cellular phone cameras; as well as text-messaging their thoughts and ideas.

Local photographer Peter Dean Rickards, 37, started small with his own website, www.afflictedyard.com, providing a relatively uncensored insight into Jamaican culture, but instead of a cellphone camera, he had an even more basic one megapixel digital camera.

This, he said, "accidentally" led to him becoming a professional photographer with the website functioning as an online portfolio attracting clients from here and abroad, ranging from corporate clients to style magazines.

Huge potential

"I think the potential is huge and perhaps over time, these alternative media sources - and I don't just means blogs - will put pressure on the established media to create better products," said Rickards.

"I see it happening already in television but there's plenty of room for growth. If established media houses don't respond to the increased challenges made by independents, it's my opinion that the public will simply begin to overlook them."

Claude Mills, 29, and photographer Carlington Wilmot, 26, who at one time both worked with Jamaica's most established newspaper, The Gleaner, have started www.yardflex.net, a simple online blog with daily entries covering the local entertainment scene.

Within a year, they expanded into newspaper format and after four bi-monthly issues and realising that most of their traffic came from expatriate Jamaican communities in the United States, their fifth issue has now been printed in South Florida, with distribution also in New York, Chicago and Toronto.

"It's not been easy," said Mills, a former reporter. "However, from something small we've developed a following which we're only just beginning to serve and we'll see how much that might grow."

Growth

"All of these are growing at an average rate of 2,000 new members per day," said Frazer.

He now employs two others, and given the massive success of the likes of MySpace and Hi5, Frazer believes he has a solid business model.


"There are so many niche markets to go after, which is why I have started to launch different sites," said Frazer.

"These people tend to be online for much of the day, either at home or at work, and we are talking about the 24 to 35-year-old demographic that advertisers want."

Jamaica's foremost communication school, the Caribbean Institute for Media and Communication (CARIMAC) at the University of the West Indies, is now fund-raising to expand so it can offer more courses. There are plans to include online distance learning courses and online journalism for those already in the profession.....

According to CARIMAC director, Drs. Marjan deBruin, the media locally are still at a stage of merger rather than convergence, combining different media platforms. But with the level of convergence in the international media, it would be nonsensical she believes, for graduates to leave her department having learned to operate in only one platform.

"The challenge for all of us in the industry, and I am including CARIMAC in this, is that we need to keep up," said deBruin.

"However, there is the issue of resources and of course finding people who have the experience to teach the courses. Furthermore, you have to consider that with technological changes, as with these, it takes young people to bridge the gaps, but this is not the demographic of people who are the decision makers within the newsroom," she said.

The Gleaner, which has over 120 million hits per month, its online arm Go-Jamaica (www.go-jamaica.com) 'Discussion Forum' will launch a new suite of online content today, October 1.


- ross.sheil@gleanerjm.com



nice article...

but have you ever visited those sites?
pure entertaintment...most dont go to them for hard news...
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #51 - Oct 5th, 2006, 5:01am


Looks like someone taking notes. Is it coincidential or a copy cat?


Quote from Xx on Sep 14th, 2006, 8:13pm:


Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties account for 75% of the electorate (party die hearts) 37½% each, the third party <5%. The target electorate then becomes the swing voters’ appx. 20%; of this number one only needs 11% to win. So the % of people being targeted in McPolling is comprised of 20% of the electorate with a targeted goal of 11%.





Any real difference between PNP and JLP?
Mark Wignall
Thursday, October 05, 2006



Mark Wignall

The vast majority of those who voted for the PNP in 2002 are more likely to resist voting, or vote PNP with a "heavy heart" (if they have been turned off from the PNP) rather than give their vote to the JLP. The tough job facing the JLP right now is in mobilising about 20 per cent of approximately 260,000 likely voters/"lukewarm" uncommitted, many of whom don't know a JLP government. Even 40,000 of these voters in addition to the JLP's "sure stock" of voters could win the elections handsomely for the JLP.

Interesting Wiggi!!



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Posts: 4167 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #52 - Oct 5th, 2006, 7:11am
'Interesting' you say; but on what basis does he make his observation?
Is he pulling his numbers from thin air.

Witless Wiggi is ignoring the Miss P factor, which is going to be huge.

For the sake of politics, all Miss P need do is to not blame the males so much for any past shortcomings; but she can say that a woman will be more sensitive to the needs of Jahmaicans, which is a fact.

I cannot imagine the Jahmaican women (a huge percentage of the electorate) not supporting a Portia government.
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #53 - Nov 13th, 2006, 8:02pm
Bruce outshines Portia
Voters say Golding doing better job than Simpson Miller

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Opposition Leader Bruce Golding enjoys a higher job approval rating than Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller whose performance as head of the Government has seen continued slippage since August, the latest Stone Polls have shown.

According to the poll, conducted October 21-25 among 1,473 voters, when asked to say whether they approve or disapprove of the way in which both leaders were handling their jobs, 39.7 per cent said they approved of how Golding was functioning as opposition leader, while 34.4 per cent gave the nod to Simpson Miller.


Among those who disapproved, Golding scored 34.9 per cent to Simpson Miller's 40.5 per cent.

"In general, therefore, Mr Golding has a higher approval rating than Mrs Simpson Miller in regard to how he is perceived to be performing at his job," said Stone.

The pollsters said they used two different measures of job performance for the survey. The first measure, which was published in last Friday's Observer and which asked voters to rate Simpson Miller's performance as prime minister so far, showed a decline in overall favourable response (that is people saying that she is either doing a good, very good or fair job) from 66.2 per cent in August to 55 per cent in October.

Among respondents who said that Simpson Miller was doing a bad or very bad job, the prime minister's ratings climbed from 19.1 per cent in August to 25.1 per cent in October. The no response/don't know category came out at 14.7 per cent in August and 19.9 per cent in October.

The pollsters could not provide a similar comparison for Golding because they did not seek a rating of his performance in August.

In the October poll, 30.7 per cent of respondents said they thought Golding was doing a good or very good job as opposition leader so far; 22.1 per cent felt he was doing a fair job; 23.6 per cent said he was doing a bad or very bad job; while 23.6 per cent either did not respond or said they didn't know.

Since succeeding Edward Seaga as leader of the JLP last year, Golding has been credited with uniting the often fractious party and has been frontally taking on the Government on a range of issues, particularly in the Parliament.

Simpson Miller, who took over the reins of the ruling People's National Party (PNP) from P J Patterson in March this year, has been having a bit of a rough ride.

The PNP presidential race, from which she emerged victorious in February, has left deep divisions in the party and her attempts to heal the rift have borne little fruit so far.

The party has also been engaged in a quarrelsome candidate selection. But last week it announced that it has chosen 58 of the 60 candidates it will present to contest the next general elections.

______________________


I bet he does, especially if the Stone/Observer conducts the polling.

Well, what exactly are the commonalities of their jobs that is/are comparable. Is this an Apples to Jackfruit comparison?

One runs a government with all the obvious responsibilities, while the others runs his mouth. Yeah he outperforms, but of course.

Now this is just one example of which I oulined in my example of 3 card samfye game employed by the Stone Team in the execution of their rope-a-dope momentum strategy. Disconnected from reality but long on PR. Above that there is little of scientific value.

More to come from Stone with this same theme just like Wignal; but the real deal will be those final erratic fluctuations that will reflect the will of the electorate And again, stable variables such as Race, Age, Cultural Norms and Gender exhibit more reliable inference qualities on which to predict the winner of the next general election. The other stuff is just pure politricks in polling motion.

Without 'erratic fluctuations' in the Stone polling results, the stone team will be "totally discredited" and the Jamaican public will witness a valuable lesson that not all that glitters is gold, as in the Stone Team gold membership. Also, the "informed Journalist and Intellectuals" in the society will start to question the polling game scientific methodology as outlined by Xx
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Posts: 23 Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Desig
Reply #54 - Nov 13th, 2006, 8:05pm
Portia, Bruce in dead heat


Monday, November 13, 2006



Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Opposition Leader Bruce Golding are locked in a statistical dead heat in regard to voters' choice as to who is best to run the country, according to the latest opinion survey conducted in October by the Stone polling organisation.

Interestingly, the tie - 34 per cent for Simpson Miller and 31.2 per cent for Golding - arises from the prime minister's slippage since August when 40.2 per cent of voters polled felt that she was the best person to run the country compared to 32 per cent in favour of Golding.

Significantly too, the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, and which was conducted October 12-25 among 1,473 voters, also shows a near six per cent increase in persons who said that neither leader was best for the country.

In August when Stone asked the question 'who would do a better job of running the country?', 11.9 per cent of respondents said neither Simpson Miller nor Golding. In October when the same question was asked, the figure increased to 17.8 per cent.
That, combined with the dead heat led the pollsters to the conclusion that "there is growing disillusionment with both political leaders, as Mrs Simpson Miller's loss was not Mr Golding's gain".

_______________

As we observe the bought and paid for political 'social scientist' disguised as researchers conducting so called scientific polling, we notice their obvious biases in executing the rope-a-dope momentum strategy.

Evidence:

Headline

Portia, Bruce in dead heat

Not really, the most logical description (and thats reaching, because the advantage points in another direction) would be a statistical deadheat, but thats left up to the fine print, Why??

To infer a statistical deadheat as oppose to Portia leading, reflects the pollsters biases, because the margin of error 'MOE" is +/- 3%, meaning it cuts both ways and the most logical interpretation would be Portia leading, because 34% - 31.2% =2.8 Bruce's 3% bye. However, Portia's 3% could put her as high as 37% on the high end and 31% on the low end still higher proportionally than Bruce.

So in reality, Portia statistically should reflect the advantage; however the pollsters decided to give all the advantage to Bruce (one sided application of MOE)in a totally and unexplained conclusion citing a deadheat, again Why?? Espeically since Bruce's numbers also slipped from 32 to 31.2, it would make sense statistically to apply the MOE proportionally, but that would be science not politricts and bought and paid for researchers as in the Stone Team.

"the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent arises from the prime minister's slippage since August when 40.2 per cent of voters polled felt that she was the best person to run the country compared to 32 per cent in favour of Golding"


"That, combined with the dead heat led the pollsters to the conclusion that "there is growing disillusionment with both political leaders, as Mrs Simpson Miller's loss was not Mr Golding's gain".

This last statement is the equivalent of a scientific oxymoron based on this article/survey as it relates to this polling being a deadheat. How did Bruce gain? if as you state "Mrs Simpson Miller's loss was not Mr Golding's gain".

Stone momentum rope-a-dope be on the lookout for more its only an illusion have little relevance to scientific surveys”.




Nonsense!
Claims Stone Polls results dumped for political reasons self-serving, says Gorstew
by Desmond Allen Executive Editor - Operations
Monday, June 18, 2007

Gorstew, Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's holding company which owns the Stone Polling Organisation, yesterday described as "self-serving" and "nonsensical", claims that the recent poll results were being dumped for political reasons.
In a statement responding to the claims, Gorstew said the poll results had been leaked to the street and the media, even before it had reached the owners who commissioned it.
"It is our belief that the poll results are now of no news value to us, since the entire country is now aware of them," the statement said, and expressed regret that "the private circumstances surrounding the operation and future direction of the Stone Polling organisation are now being politicised".
"We take strong objection to this and reject any comments made which seek to discredit our intentions as owners of the Stone Polls and we caution members of any political party against the dangers of politicising private business matters," Gorstew said.
That comment was in apparent reference to suggestions by some PNP officials that politics was behind Gorstew's decision to reject the Stone Poll results.
The statement also confirmed that lead consultant on the Stone team, Wyvolyn Gager had resigned over the Observer's decision to commission another pollster, Don Anderson.
Anderson was first hired to carry out market surveys for the Observer and then asked to do political polls as well, after a decision by the newspaper to establish itself as the leading publishers of poll in Jamaica.
Gager, a former Gleaner editor-in-chief, saw the move to bring in Anderson as a lack of confidence in the Stone team and sent in her resignation. But Gorstew emphasised that she was was held the highest regard and "we were confident in her leadership of the Stone Team".
In the statement, Gorstew also insisted that given the fact that the Anderson poll had shown the ruling People's National Party (PNP) ahead of the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), it was non-sensical to argue that the Stone polls were being held back, because they showed the PNP ahead of the JLP.
The Don Anderson Polls published over three days last week, showed the PNP ahead of the JLP by four percentage points and the PNP leader, Portia Simpson Miller getting more favourable rating over Opposition Leader, Bruce Golding.
"It is our position that with the breach of confidentiality and the resignation of Ms Gager, the Stone Organisation is in need of a complete review and restructuring, and this was communicated to Dr Ian Boxill on June 12, 2007," Gorstew said.
"At that time, it was also communicated to Dr Boxill that given this need for restructuring, we would no longer be requiring his services or those of his team." See full text of Gorstew statement on this page



2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version


Feb 6th, 2011

Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project


I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.

This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.



Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)


Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.

The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.


The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure

The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.

Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.


“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)


Pureness Parameters


JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.

PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.

Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.

Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 31.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007

Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.

Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.

Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.

Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.


Operational Variables:

These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.


Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.

Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.

Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).

Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.


Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.

Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.


Scaling/Measurement

How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.



Re-inforcement of Theory

This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.



Survey Data

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.


1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b
published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5

Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5








2. Absenteeism in Parliament
published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5








3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009

Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter

Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5

Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5




4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:



Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5



5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:



Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5







6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments

After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010

THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.

Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments


Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html


Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp


-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5



10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5




Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm


Attitudinal Survey Data

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.




Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:

Jlp = +1

Pnp = +5

Nnc = -1


Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1

-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%



(Survey using Proxy data)


Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…


11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.


Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0



11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%


.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10



11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%

.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10



Chart # 2Scale 10=100

..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10



• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.





Polling Gameology
Now, here comes the ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid for pollsters will produce surveys consistent with ‘gameological’ theory.

Poll Gameology Sample:

"JLP bounces back - PNP lead cut in half over past 12 monthsPublished: Thursday | July 7, 2011 33 Comments
Bruce Golding addresses supporters at a 2007 party conference before the general election that brought his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to power. - File
Jubilant Labourites show their support at a 2009 JLP annual conference.
1 2 >

The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has gained a momentum that has seen it drastically reduce the lead which the People's National Party (PNP) holds as the party more Jamaicans would vote for if an election is called today.
More Jamaicans also believe the PNP would do a better job of governing the country at this time but, again, the JLP's tide is rising ominously.
The JLP has made big moves in the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, while the PNP has lost support or remained stable.
The latest poll, conducted islandwide from May 28 to 29 and June 4 to 5, shows that 35 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP candidate if an election is called today, while 25 per cent would vote for the JLP candidate, regardless of who is nominated to represent the two parties.
Eleven per cent of the respondents said they were undecided, while 27 per cent said they would not vote.
However, despite trailing the PNP by 10 percentage points, the poll provides encouraging news for the JLP, which is enjoying an upswing, while the PNP has lost some ground.
When Johnson last tested the pulse of the nation in April 2010, the PNP with 38 per cent support had doubled the JLP, which had only 19 per cent of the respondents, saying they would vote for the candidates of the governing party.
But in this latest poll, with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, the PNP has lost three percentage points while the JLP has gained six percentage points.
"This is one case where a political party cannot be sanguine with a 10-point lead," Johnson explained.
"The JLP has cut the PNP's 19 per cent lead in almost half in one year and it could be tough for the PNP unless it start giving people a reason to vote for its candidates," added Johnson.
The pollster noted that the story was similar when respondents were asked which party would do a better job of governing Jamaica at this time.
Forty-three per cent of Jamaicans said the PNP would do a better job in managing the affairs of the state at this time while 32 per cent made the JLP their choice.
But even as the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP continues to enjoy the lead that it has held since June 2008, that poll also showed encouraging signs for the JLP.
When Johnson posed the same question to Jamaicans just over one year ago, the PNP polled 43 per cent, while the JLP, with 26 per cent, was at its lowest level since 2007 and 17 percentage points behind Simpson Miller and her team.
Now one year later, the PNP has not moved and the JLP has gained six percentage points, closing that gap to 11 percentage points.
Even more encouraging for the JLP is the fact that its upswing has come from persons who were undecided about which party would do a better job of running the country.
Last April, 30 per cent of those polled declared that they were undecided about which party would be better at directing the affairs of the state. That number is now down to 25 which is about consistent with the polling numbers for non-election years and two of the island's leading political analysts believe it spells bad news for the PNP.
Troy Caine and Tony Myers agree that the signs are moving in the right direction for the JLP.
"The PNP doesn't have a lot of things going in its favour as it approaches the next general election," Caine told The Gleaner.
"The PNP was pushing for something to go in its favour from the Manatt-Dudus commission of enquiry and that did not work. Now, it is looking for other so-called scandals to try to discredit the JLP," Caine added.
He charged that the PNP has not made efforts to woo voters. Instead, it has sat expecting Jamaicans to boot out the Bruce Golding-led government.
That view is shared by Myers who is unimpressed by the actions of the PNP's Secretariat.
"The PNP seems to be saying that the people will get rid of the JLP rather than telling the country how the party would deal with issues such as crime and the economy. The leadership of the PNP needs to wake up," Myers said.
"The poll numbers have a lot to do with the lack of readiness of the PNP and the lack of inspiration of its Secretariat which is at a new low, below the floor," Myers added.
According to Caine: "The main problem that the PNP has why it is not gaining is that it is the same old team with the same old story and Simpson Miller's lame attempt at a recent reshuffle of her shadow Cabinet has found no favour with Jamaicans."
With elections constitutionally due next year, the PNP still has time to get back into gear but with the poll showing the momentum with the JLP, it will be hard work for the Opposition to change the status quo.
But Caine does not believe that is impossible.
"I do not hold much candle for the polls. Elections are all won at the constituency level and not on national issues."
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110707/lead/lead1.html"


“REAL VS FAKE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
Scientific Investigation

The construction of testable theory, which is accomplished by scientific research methods that are conducted in a designed stimulus neutral environment for the collection of data.

A research design or schematic is used to channel data into sterile and unbiased data pools from which valid and reliable inferences and deductions can be concluded.

Checks and balances are utilized via randomness to neutralize contaminated data, which if not neutralized will render your research invalid and not reliable with the ultimate effect of making your findings erroneous.

"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'.

As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways:

1) channel social agendas in a certain direction
2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction
3) influence social agendas in a certain direction
4) influence public policy
5) lead the people in a certain direction or
6) Valid and reliable Social Science Research

Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design that is only related to legitimate scientific investigation and the overall goal is to yield a certain type of outcome.

The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior.

Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties account for 75% of the electorate (party die hearts) 37½% each, the third party <5%. The target electorate then becomes the swing voters’ appx. 20%; of this number one only needs 11% to win. So the % of people being targeted in McPolling is comprised of 20% of the electorate with a targeted goal of 11%.


Gameology Polling Method

Reply #6 - Sep 16th, 2006, 6:52pm
Agengi etal, visualize/imagine a three (3) way horse race. One horse dey pon de track so long that im consider it him yaad ground, and because him a favorite him always start with a 9 lengths jump start before the race even begin. (Poll: 9 points lead by the PNP over the JLP)

Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/method/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shirt.

So because this ya race so important teamie use all kinda different method/strategy/bandooloo fe win de race.For example, some a juck wit battery, some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo. However, because the 9 lenghts so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Stone high power Opinion survey Team). Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1, but Horse # 2 figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Stone Polls come in.

Stone Team recognize de 9 point lead but dem draw fe de high power battery, tonic an oil (Opinion survey) and try and convince 11% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘theory’/game of momentum. Now if dem can sweet talk (Psychology)….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy

…enuff people (strategically conducted Stone Polling surveys) then the goal is dat through some combination of: some people not betting and some switching dem can achieve dat 11 %. But in reality it’s a game of smoking mirrors, but if de high power battery, tonic an oil strong enuff, den dem can mek up de 9 lengths. Really its entirely possible if de 3 way guzzu (high power battery, tonic an oil) get mixed well and delivered by a master 3 card man- Stone Team. However, highly improbably because of the general voters attitude will mitigate/(work against) the reversal of the PNP’s early lead.

Why 11%. Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 5% Third and others Parties equals 80%. Now dat leaves 20% of which 11% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 11 points.


The below ‘watermelon’ effect is the intended result of the Gameology method/tactic.

“Although the scholars and the polling organization in question have denied the allegations, some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon effect" (this refers to the Taiwanese expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side," i.e., people tend to jump on the bandwagon).


This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007. In 2012 Attitudinal under current will determine the results and X has completed a predictive model 18 months in advance using Affect Control Theory to measure attitudes of potential voters. The results of which are contained herein. Prepare yourself accordingly as X’s predictive model indicates that the government will change from JLP to PNP.


-------------

A poll conducted by the Jamaica Sunday Herald also confirms the negative trending pattern occuring with the government, further validating X-1 Attitudinal Research.

"Should this government be given a second term?
Select Poll Select a poll from the listDo you have any regrets about the amounts you have spent so far this Christmas season?Do you think the government is handling the tax on liquor properly?Which minister should be dropped from the Cabinet?Should this government be given a second term?
Number of Voters:901
First Vote:Sunday, 27 February 2011 18:11
Last Vote:Friday, 08 July 2011 21:09Should this government be given a second term?
Hits Percent Graph
No
587 65.1%
Yes
314 34.9% "