Total Pageviews

Experimentation "Hole in The Head"

  • http://www.youtube.com/smithleonardprod
Powered By Blogger

Friday, December 23, 2011

11:59 Election Breeze Polls

X-1

12/23/2011

It's 11:59 figuratively speaking and the curtains are closing on the 2011 Election Polling season with final voting to occur on 12/29/2011. Post 12/29/2011 the media will perform a post mortem of the polls focused on who was "SPOT ON".

Ardent readers of this blog may recall that this blog was established with the science of polling and the manipulation of polling methodology in various research including politics being it's focal point.

X-1 has pursued a contrast or in some cases concurrence between Attitudinal Polling Research and Opinion Polling Research. The rationale, Attitude is deep and generally static/stationary over longer periods of time; Whereas, opinions are generally momentarily changable and certain percentage of voters are easily influenced by Public Relations (PR). This reality leads to opinion polling being used as a tool in a behavioral modification method by design or default to influence voting behavior, and admittedly this method if executed professionally can be very effective.

X-1 guiding theory is, Attitudinal Research is a more valid method of predicting people future behavior, notwithstanding behavioral modification tactics as "water always reverts back to its natural position"

Below I have posted the latest polls from the 'Hired Polling Guns'. Immediately following I reposted excerpts of my original Attitudinal Research for comparison convenience. We will revist after 12/29/2011.

Thank you for following this blog.

***********************************

PNP comeback

Published: Friday | December 23, 2011 10 Comments

Portia Simpson Miller

Andrew Holness
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter

With a few metres left before the finish line is crossed in the race for Gordon House, the People's National Party (PNP) has made a rally that has seen it sweep past the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the latest check on who is likely to be crowned champion come December 29.

While the two parties remain in a statistical dead heat, the PNP seems to have snatched the momentum from the JLP over the past few days.

The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found that if Jamaicans were asked to vote today, 38 per cent would cast their ballot for the PNP while 36 per cent would vote JLP.

With the poll having a sampling error of plus or minus four per cent, there is really nothing separating the two parties going down to the line.

But the PNP seems to have the edge, gaining six percentage points in the past week while the JLP has not moved an inch.

"The JLP came to a screeching halt just over one week ago probably because of issues such as the Government's handling of the United States spy plane revelations and other issues while the PNP seems to have received a boost by its pointing out the inaccuracies of some of the JLP's claims," the pollster told The Gleaner.

"But it is still anybody's game because a two percentage point lead is not significant and what we are seeing is fluidity. The person who said 'probably PNP' one week earlier might now be saying 'probably JLP' or 'undecided'," added Johnson.

When Johnson tested the pulse of the nation on December 10 and 11, the JLP enjoyed 36 per cent support while the PNP trailed with 32 per cent support.

One week later, December 17 and 18, Johnson returned to the field and found that some persons who had previously said they would not vote or who had refused to say who they would vote for have moved behind the Portia Simpson Miller-led party.

The latest poll found the number of undecided voters almost unchanged at 10 per cent compared to nine per cent one week prior while those who will not vote declined by three percentage points to 15 per cent while a negligible number of respondents, one per cent, refused to answer the question.

Before leadership debate

Johnson noted that the latest poll was done after the second of three national debates and would not show what, if any, impact the clash between Simpson Miller and JLP Leader Andrew Holness would have on voting plans.

"These voting intentions are not locked in concrete and the leadership debate could have an impact but the whole thing is very fluid," emphasised Johnson.

He noted that the persons who said they would definitely vote PNP increased from 29 per cent to 35 per cent in one week while those who said the would probably vote PNP remained at three per cent.

For the JLP, those who said they would definitely put their X beside its symbol of the bell moved marginally from 31 to 32 per cent while the voters who said probably JLP dropped from five to four per cent.

However the main reasons why persons would vote the way they indicated, for the most part, remained almost unchanged.

For the JLP, 34 per cent of the persons who say they will vote for the party say they are "diehard Labourites"; 15 per cent said it is better than the PNP; while 12 per cent said Holness deserves a chance. But that is down from 19 per cent one week earlier.

On the PNP side, 31 per cent who said they would vote for the party claimed that was because they are rock-stone Comrades, down from 36 per cent one week earlier.

Eighteen per cent said the party is better than the JLP and 13 per cent said the PNP would do a better job of running the country.

The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was conducted in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008.

arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com


PNP: 38
JLP: 36

UNDECIDED: 10

WOULD NOT VOTE: 15

REFUSED: 1

**************

Poll numbers heading in the wrong direction for JLP leader
Published: Friday | December 23, 2011 6 Comments


It appears the shine has started to rub off Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Prime Minister Andrew Holness, with most of his numbers trending down.

A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found a dip in the favourability rating for Holness and a reduction in the number of persons who believe he should be returned as prime minister.

There is also a decline in the number of persons who believe he would do a better job than the People's National Party's (PNP) Portia Simpson Miller as the head of State.

The poll, conducted before the national leadership debate on Tuesday, found that for the first time since he was sworn in to lead the Government, Holness trails Simpson Miller in favourability rating, even though he continues to lead her as the person most Jamaicans think would do the better job as prime minister.

Cannot walk on water

"People are now realising that Holness cannot walk on water. He is being humanised as the days go by," said pollster Bill Johnson.

"The JLP received a significant boost because of Holness but now Jamaicans are seeing him with his strengths and weaknesses like all of us and are making informed judgements," added Johnson.

According to the poll, conducted on December 17 and 18, Holness is now viewed favourably by 47 per cent of Jamaicans, down from 51 per cent in November and 49 per cent earlier this month.

The number of persons who view Holness in an unfavourable light is also on an upward trajectory, 24 per cent in November, 25 per cent early December and 31 per cent in the latest poll.

For Simpson Miller, her favourability rating has climbed to 50 per cent, its highest level in months. The persons who view the PNP president in a negative light has declined from a high of 40 per cent in June to 37 per cent in the latest poll.

Holness for PM

But despite the increase in her favourability rating, Simpson Miller continues to trail Holness as the person Jamaicans want to lead the government.

Fifty per cent of Jamaicans believe Holness should remain as prime minister. This is down from the 55 per cent recorded early in December but still a healthy lead over the 35 per cent who say they want someone else.

Holness enjoys a 42 per cent support when he is matched up with Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans think would do a better job as prime minister. The PNP president gets the nod from 39 per cent of Jamaicans while 19 per cent say they are undecided.

Despite still trailing Holness, Simpson Miller is enjoying the momentum as in November she was behind by eight percentage points when the two were matched up. That increased to nine percentage points in early December but is now down to a three percentage point gap.

The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was done in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20111223/lead/lead2.html

*************

PNP has slightly better favourability rating

Wednesday, December 21, 2011


NEITHER the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) nor the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) received a strong positive rating from persons interviewed by pollster Don Anderson earlier this month.

Of the 1,000 registered voters polled in more than 150 locations islandwide, Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Limited found that 37.4 per cent gave the JLP a favourable rating, while 40.6 per cent gave the party an unfavourable rating. Another 22 per cent had no opinion on this issue.


Supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party and ruling Jamaica Labour Party have fun during Nomination Day activities in Kingston last week Monday. (Observer file photo)
Supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party and ruling Jamaica Labour Party have fun during Nomination Day activities in Kingston last week Monday. (Observer file photo) 1/1


"The PNP has only a slightly better favourability rating than the JLP with 40.7 per cent considering its performance and standing to be favourable, with 35.8 per cent giving this party an unfavourable rating. 23.5 per cent have no opinion of the PNP," Anderson said.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

"The majority, then, either have no opinion of the parties or view them negatively, a factor which feeds into the high incidence of persons who appear to be disenchanted with the political process and are, at this time, either disinclined to vote or not sure they will in upcoming elections," Anderson said.

According to the pollster, this data is highly consistent with another poll conducted by his team for the CVM-TV Group between November 17 and 21.

In that survey, the JLP had a favourability rating of 37 per cent, while the PNP's was 41 per cent. The unfavourability ratings of the parties stood at 41 per cent JLP and 35 per cent PNP.

Said Anderson: "Efforts over the last month by both parties to create a more positive impression amongst Jamaicans have not borne fruit, again an indication that there is a hard core of the electorate who are not enamoured by either party and who might be difficult to convince to come out to vote if they are now disinclined to do so."



Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/PNP-has-slightly-better-favourability-rating_10434727#ixzz1hlrNtYcb

*************

Andrew ahead of Portia — Polls
JLP leader better to represent Ja locally and abroad



Thursday, December 15, 2011


A majority of Jamaicans believe that Andrew Holness is a better leader than Portia Simpson Miller to represent the country locally and overseas. This was one of the findings of the latest Observer/Don Anderson Polls conducted between December 5 and 11, 2011. Anderson and his Market Research Services team interviewed 1,000 registered voters in all parishes in the island, covering over 150 different locations. The margin of error was plus or minus 3%.

(L-R) HOLNESS... better to represent Jamaica. SIMPSON MILLER... trails Holness in leadership polls

Asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country overseas, 44.2 per cent of Jamaicans polled said the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader and Prime Minister Andrew Holness, compared with 38.9 per cent who said People's National Party (PNP) leader and former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.

When asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country locally, a smaller majority of 42.9 per cent said Holness against 41.3 per cent who chose Simpson Miller.

"Empirical data has shown that perception of the respective leaders has been an important issue in party support in previous elections, especially in the 90s and early to mid 2000s when PJ Patterson and Edward Seaga were the respective leaders of the PNP and the JLP," Anderson said in his notes to the polls.

He noted that the recent elevation to the higher office of prime minister of the "generally highly regarded Holness has boosted his favourability rating amongst Jamaicans to the point where he is now better perceived than PNP leader Simpson Miller..."


http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/elections/news/Andrew-ahead-of-Portia-JLP-leader-better-to-represent-Ja-locally-and-abroad_10393439

**********

JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com


Thursday, November 10, 2011



ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.

The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.

The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.

Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.

The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.

The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.

The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.

In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.

In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.

When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.

The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.


Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1hOF8O9Nt


************

Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Attitudinal Polling vs Opinion Polling
Attitudinal Polling Method
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001

"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.

The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"



___________________________________

X-1 Phantom Researcher

"2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research

___________________________________


2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version


Feb 6th, 2011

Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project

Author X-1

I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.

This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.


Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)


Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.

The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.


The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure

The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.

Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.


“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)


Pureness Parameters


JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.

PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.

Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.

Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007

Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001

Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.

Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.

Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.


Operational Variables:

These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.


Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.

Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.

Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).

Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.


Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.

Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.


Scaling/Measurement

How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.



Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months.

The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters (Johnson, Anderson & Boxill) riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.


Survey Data Inferential Findings

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.

(Likert Scaling)

http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php

1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b
published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5

Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5








2. Absenteeism in Parliament
published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5








3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009

Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter

Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5

Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5




4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:



Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5



5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:



Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5







6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments

After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010

THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.

Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments


Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html


Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp


-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5



10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5




“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm

Attitudinal Survey Data

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.




Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:

Jlp = +1

Pnp = +5

Nnc = -1


Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1

-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%



(Survey using Proxy data)


Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…


11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.


Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0



11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%


.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10



11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%

.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10



Chart # 2Scale 10=100

..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10



• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.


Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.


• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter."

No comments: