The Stone Poll construct and operational methodology

The "Stone Poll Organization" is currently under fire for what appears to be unethical practices. This unqualified observation hit the media full force over the past couple days (6-19-07) and really took on a life of its own. This media current observation was first documented by this researcher as far back as 2001.

Please acess the following links to get an understanding of my position and observations.

"Xx" 2002 Election polling link

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/talkback/readpost.asp?artid=17014&item=39899


Jamaica Observer
By: Mark Wignall
"Anxious moments for Stone poll watchers"

Talk Back comments by Xx

Post 3 of 49
Posted by:
X(x)
Posted on:
Wednesday, November 14, 2001 at 11:11:41 PM
Location:
Normal, USA
Occupation:
Research
Comments:

"As far as the JLP is concerned, they have sewn up the next elections. With Seaga constantly harping on the 15 per cent points ahead of the PNP as, he believes, it is cast in stone".

Mark you are caught up in an illusion to print "15% points", this is misleading, your most recent Mcpoll (9/01) shows a false positive lead of 8-9 points for the JLP.

Mark your columns are a dishonest attempt at electioneering via skewed opinion polls, and subliminal columns to re-inforce your non-scientific assertions.

PREDICTION.The results of your next poll will show the JLP again leading, they will lead the PNP by approximately 6% to 10% points. The 50% uncommitted will decrease to approximately 40-48%. Raw % will be approximately JLP 29% to 35%; PNP 21% to 29%. Dont be confused by the possible combinations and how they add up my premise is; [any combination of these scores as long as N=100% and the percentage lead for the JLP falls between 6% and 10%.] Your margin of error will be appx. <>+.90 correlation. The results will not be surprising as the real motive is to manipulate the minds of the Jamaican people in favour of your party, so you can't afford to show the PNP leading because of the uncertain election date and the fear of momentum, so from here to election the JLP will lead 6-10 points and Mark will continue to subliminally try to feed us this regurgitated non-scientific garbage called opinion polls diguised as election crystal ball.

Mark you are going to be shocked to learn that the PNP will get 5 votes to every 3 for the JLP in the next general election. We can debate the validity after the election.

2002 Election results

http://www.jamaicaelections.com/election2002/news/20021017-1.html

PNP wins 4th term 10-seat margin of victoryBy Lloyd Williams, Senior Associate Editor
THE PEOPLE'S National Party (PNP) set public opinion poll forecasts awry yesterday by clawing a close victory in the 2002 General Election, getting an unprecedented fourth term as Government.
It crept to victory by taking an estimated 35 of the 60 seats in the House of Representatives. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) lost one of the 12 seats it had but grabbed another 14.


“Xx” 2007 Election polling cyber link:

http://www.golocaljamaica.com/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl?num=1158282768;start=all


http://www.sunheraldjamaica.com/coverstory1.htm

Stone Polls dumped
Gorstew shelves findings showing PNP ahead of JLP
The failure by Gorstew, a company owned by billionaire hotelier and publisher, Gordon “Butch” Stewart, to publish its own public opinion polls showing the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) ahead of the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), has fuel the perception that Stewart and his newspaper, the Jamaica Observer, have adopted an anti government posture.
Reports are that a decision has been taken to suspend the Stone Polls indefinitely.
“We have some concerns with the polls, as the findings were leaked before they were handed over to us and we are assessing the situation before deciding if we are going to publish the results,” said Chris Zacca, deputy chairman of the board of directors of the Jamaica Observer, on Friday.
Zacca blamed persons with vested interests of attempting to politicise a “business decision”.
Up to Friday, grave uncertainty hung over the future of the once revered Stone Polls, founded by late university professor, Carl Stone. Its general manager, former Gleaner editor-in-chief, Wyvolyn Gager, has quit her post and sources indicate that other members of the team, including Professor Ian Boxill, academician Lloyd Waller, Laurence Powell, Arlene Daly and Roy Russell, had written their resignation letters.
Gager, however, told the Sunday Herald that her resignation had nothing to do with the controversy.
“My contract actually ended in March and I decided that I would not continue,” she said, adding that she stayed on only to clear up some unfinished business.
But according to sources, Gager decided to quit after she was told that a decision was taken to commission Don Anderson of Market Research Services Limited (MRSL) to conduct public opinion polls for publication in the Observer, when no explanation was given for the non-publication of the polls done by her team.
It seemed that decision coincided with the falling out between Gorstew and the Stone team. ‘Business decision’The Stone team’s leading pollster, Dr. Ian Boxill, told the Sunday Herald that his team went into the field between late May and early June. The first part of the results was handed in two weeks ago and the second part last Thursday.
“We are not aware of any problems. We submitted the data and we were not told that it would not be published,” Dr. Boxill said on Thursday.
But Zacca said the results were on the streets shortly after they were handed over, “and we have problems with that”.
“This is a business decision. It is not making any money,” Zacca said, responding to questions over the future of the Stone Polls, following the decision to hire Anderson’s team of pollsters.It was not clear if members of the Stone team were directly told of the decision to hire another pollster. But Zacca said, “We have been publishing” the results of a poll done by Anderson’s team, which was done over the same period of the rejected Stone Poll findings.
Although Zacca did not point to anyone as having been responsible for the alleged leak of the poll results, which sources said had the PNP leading the JLP by eight percentage points, he argued that not only was there a confidentiality problem, but also he had difficulty publishing information which was in the hands of his competitors.
However, Zacca did not explain if he would have taken a similar position if the results of the polls had the opposition ahead. Cemented viewOnce a staunch supporter of the PNP, Stewart’s recent sentiments towards a change of government are well known. And speculations that the Observer was singing his tune gained momentum following the publication of a front-page photograph of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller doodling in Parliament during debate on the controversial Trafigura affair last year.
Several cartoons ridiculing the Prime Minister since then, in addition to statements critical of the government’s handling of the economy, have cemented the view among some supporters of the government that the paper was supporting the opposition.
“It is unfair to the Observer,” Zacca said on Friday, pointing to the Anderson polls showing the government ahead of the opposition in several areas as evidence that the Observer was not biased.
“If we got the polls we would have published them,” argued Desmond Allen, the publication’s executive editor in charge of operations. Allen said his editorial team had no input in the decision to commission the polls and the paper was only a vehicle for its publication. But he had “lots of concerns” that the non-publication could feed into the perception in some quarters, that the paper was biased against the government. MotivesAs the political temperature heats up ahead of the General Elections later this year, publication of the Stone Polls by the Observer was widely anticipated last week. This was after earlier publication of the Bill Johnson Polls in the Gleaner showed the PNP five points ahead of the JLP and the Don Anderson Polls showing both parties in a statistical dead heat, and Observer columnist, Mark Wignall’s, poll showing the JLP ahead by seven points.
Stewart’s company, Gorstew, acquired the once respectable Stone Polls a year ago from Stone’s widow, Rosemarie, for an undisclosed sum, raising eyebrows in political circles about Stewart’s motives.
It is felt in political circles that Stewart is still upset with the government for its decision to take back Air Jamaica from his AJAS Group and subsequent controversy over the joint venture Sandals Whitehouse Hotel. Stewart scolded the JLP and demanded its leader Bruce Golding to reprimand Member of Parliament Andrew Gallimore when Gallimore criticised AJAS’s handling of Air Jamaica in Parliament.
Stewart’s critics say he is part of a wider “big capital agenda” to push the government from power. Those supporting that view pointed to Friday’s advertisement in the Financial Gleaner by John Mahfood, urging businessmen to peg their donations to political parties to a request for a written strategy for a reduction in murders to “no more than 10 per 100,000 of population during the following five years of their tenure.”
ROPER'S PERSPECTIVE by Garnett Roper


http://www.sunheraldjamaica.com/editorial2.htm

Kingmakers of polls and pollsters
In the Ancient Near East, the period out of which the Old Testament Scriptures came, dreams were an important mechanism of prognosticating the future. The forces of power and empire believed that if they knew what a dream meant, they would thwart the adverse effect of that dream on their interest. They very often recruited the interpreters of dreams and made them a part of their royal courts. This is why Joseph in the book of Genesis was engaged by Pharaoh of Egypt, and Daniel in the book that bears his name was recruited or, put indelicately, was captured by Emperor Nebuchadnezzar, the King of Babylon.
What kings and emperors did in an age long gone by with dreams and interpreters of dreams, kingmakers are seeking to do with polls and pollsters today.
In this respect, in the lead-up to the 2007 General Elections, powerful media and private sector interests have acquired not merely the rights to publish polls, but the rights over the actual public opinion polls. The Gleaner has acquired the Bill Johnson Polls and to its enormous credit, has published those polls dispassionately and completely. The interests connected with CVM TV acquired the Don Anderson Polls and had been making them available to the viewing public.
The Observer acquired the Stone Polls and bought the Stone name as well. One gathers that when the most recent poll results were made available to those with controlling interest in the Observer newspaper, it was deemed that the results meant the polls were unreliable.
The Stone Polls seemed not to have told the Observer bigwigs what they wanted to hear, and so the results have so far not been published.
As a counter measure, the Observer interests acquired the Don Anderson Polls from the CVM Group and has begun to publish the Don Anderson Polls. What is remarkable is that all three polls have lined up within the margin of error. The Bill Johnson Polls found a month ago that the PNP under the watch of Portia Simpson Miller, had a lead of 7 per cent over the JLP.
The Stone Polls that the Observer seems disinclined to publish, because it is ostensibly unreliable, has found that the PNP enjoys a 6 percentage point lead over the JLP, and the Anderson Poll, with typically conservatism, has found that the PNP enjoys a 4 percentage lead over the JLP.Tools for manipulationWatchers would have noticed from a month ago, desperate signs of an intention to use the public opinion polls as a tool for the manipulation of the voting public. After the Bill Johnson Polls that showed the PNP enjoying a 7 percentage point lead over the JLP was published by the Gleaner, an Observer headline screamed about a Wignall Poll giving the JLP the same 7 percentage point lead over the PNP.
The trouble with that is that though Mark Wignall has been around polls, he has never studied polling. At least one is unsure whether they taught polling at Kingston College when he was a student there.
What is worse, Mark Wignall has not made any of his poll samples available; one suspects because he has none. One gathers to be fair and blunt, that the Observer interest has also refused to publish any further Wignall Polls on the basis that they are unreliable.
The acquisition of the Stone name and refusal to publish its findings by the Observer has begun to do damage, not just to that poll organisation, but also to the credibility of polls themselves. One suspects that may well be the intention. First there was a yet unsuccessful attempt to rename the Anderson Poll, the Stone-Anderson Poll. Then there is the resignation of a highly placed member of the Stone team in protest against the damage done to the professional reputation of its operatives by the decision of the Observer not to publish the findings. It is likely that other members of the team will also hand in their resignations. This will mean the dismantling of the Stone polling organisation and what survives will have lost any shred of credibility.Shoot the messengerIf one may return for the sake of record, to the practices of despotic kings in the Ancient Near East, now being taken up by would be kingmakers, there was a shoot the messenger approach by those who sought control over the future. It was not uncommon for kings and emperors who did not like the interpretation or lack thereof of dreamers, to put them all to death.
There is a story in the Old Testament book of Kings of the prophet by the name of Micaiah ben Imlah. Ahab the King of Israel wanted assurance of victory in order to proceed on a certain military expedition. All the prophets who wanted to curry favor with Ahab, gave him the requisite assurance. Micaiah ben Imlah promised him certain defeat. In response to which Ahab had Micaiah arrested and gave him a diet of bread and water for the period of his indefinite incarceration. The independence and courage of Micaiah ensured that integrity prophecy survived even though Micaiah himself did not.
Where do the machinations of the Observer leave all of us? One notes with interest that some of the same players who are behind the Observer, who have engineered what appears to be the ruination of the Stone Polls, are engaged in a war of words with the Minister of Development and PNP General Secretary, Donald Buchanan.
Interestingly, the burden of their arguments is to defend the credibility of claims they have made and to demand that they are not treated as a part of a political campaign. They want the freedom to express their opinion, but to deny the PNP General Secretary the same right to his opinion. They think they can do and say anything they want and plead innocence when others respond in kind.
The comments by Mr. Gazan Azan about ‘socialist government’ must certainly have been a mis-statement on his part. He is a far more sensible man than that statement suggests. On the other hand, Mr. Christopher Zacca cannot play so many roles and feign innocence at one and the same time. He is the president of the PSOJ, an office that must be compromised by his role in rejecting the Stone Poll in the service of narrowly partisan objectives. He is also the deputy chairman of the Observer. The event that was organised, to which Danny Buchanan responded, was arranged entirely for purposes that were party political in nature.CasualtiesThe first casualty of this entire saga is the credibility of the Observer: This incident now makes it clear that the Observer is now undoubtedly a part of the political campaign. It will do anything that is required to help its chosen side along. Signs of this abound, but in this refusal to publish an opinion poll that did not say what it wanted to hear, the chickens have come home to roost.
The second casualty is that unless the elections are called in July, the voters will be without a credible opinion poll. The credibility of public opinion polls will not survive if the elections are delayed until October. The Bill Johnson Polls have so far been operating above the fray, thanks to the lessons that the Gleaner has learnt over the years.
But Bill Johnson is not without his problems elsewhere. And I am not talking about St Lucia alone. If the Anderson Polls stay with the Observer, its credibility will be shot, because we will know that it can only survive if it tells the Observer interests what they want to hear.
How will this affect the practice of our democracy? It will be the same as it was before polling became such a feature of our elections. The elections will be decided on Election Day by the people. The boardrooms and lunchrooms will not be able to manipulate the Jamaican people. It is not lost on the people of this country that some of those who appear ruthlessly bitter and are squealing the loudest about the country, have benefited the most from the last two decades of political actions.
Some of these persons have made enormous fortunes. As one man puts it, some were born and grown in the 1990’s; before the 90’s they were never heard of or heard from. These who have gained so much and have given so little back, expect the people to listen to them as they tell the people what is in Jamaica’s interests. The Jamaican people have always been savvy to them. They have not been fooled by politicians; they will not be fooled by those who want to take them back to the great houses of the plantation. Those who have access to the minds of the people by virtue of their possession of the means of information, have a solemn trust. They must not allow themselves to be hostages of vested interests, but must seek to serve and protect the public interest.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20070617t200000-0500_124433_obs_____these_polls_are_no_longer_of_news_value_to_us__.asp

'...These polls are no longer of news value to us'
Monday, June 18, 2007

Following is the full text of the statement issued yesterday by Gorstew, Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's holding company which owns the Stone Polling Organisation:
Gorstew, Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's holding company which owns the Stone Polling Organisation, has listened keenly to the self-serving and nonsensical claims that the recent Stone Poll results were being dumped for political reasons.We are very disturbed that the poll results had been leaked to the street and the media, even before they were submitted to the owners, who commissioned the poll.
It is our belief that the poll results are now of no news value to us, since the entire country is now aware of themWe also regret that the private circumstances surrounding the operation and future direction of the Stone Poll organisation are now being politicised.
We take strong objection to this and reject any comments made which seek to discredit our intentions as owners of the Stone poll, and caution members of any political party against the dangers of politicising private business matters.
When Gorstew bought the Stone Poll, our intention was, and still is, to restore the poll's, and the late Carl Stone's, reputation and so we mandated the consultants in charge to bring creativity, simplicity and innovation to the ailing organisation.
The sequence of events surrounding the recent polls are as follows:
. Gorstew gave instructions and paid for a political party status poll to be conducted by the Stone team, who are contracted on a poll by poll basis. As owners, we reviewed and approved the questions which were to be asked.
. The Jamaica Observer, intent on preserving its credibility and further cementing its position as the Country's leading newspaper, conceptualized the establishment of the paper as the leading publisher of polls, by adding the Don Anderson Polls.. The Observer management contracted Mr Anderson in mid May 2007, to conduct a similar political party status poll with the view that both polls would be published, although not simultaneously.
. However, following Mr Anderson's engagements with the Observer, prior to the results of either poll, the Stone Poll's lead consultant Ms Wyvolyn Gager, resigned on June 5, 2007, stating that the engagement of another polling organisation to conduct a similar poll, signaled a lack of confidence in the Stone team. We regret Ms Gager's decision to resign as she is held in the highest regard and we were confident in her leadership of the Stone Team.
. Mr Anderson's team went into the field in late May. . Although the Stone team went out into the field before the Anderson team, the Anderson results were submitted to us ahead of the Stone results. Stone team cited rain as the cause of their delay and informed us that they had to send their team in the field.
. At no time did Gorstew representatives give any instructions for pollsters to go back into the field for whatever reason. . The Anderson poll results were first submitted to the Observer on June 7, 2007 and subsequently published June 13th, 14th and 15th.
. The Stone poll first results were submitted to Gorstew on the evening of June 8, 2007, and have not yet been published.. On June 11, 2007 it was discovered, through statements via the media, that there was a breach of confidentiality, prior to publication, of the results of the Stone Poll.
. It is our position that with the breach of confidentiality and the resignation of Ms. Gager, the Stone organisation is in need of a complete review and restructuring, and this was communicated to Dr Ian Boxill on June 12, 2007. At that time, it was also communicated to Dr Boxill that given this need for restructuring, we would no longer be requiring his services or those of his team.The issues surrounding the current state of the Stone poll organization and the Jamaica Observer's decision to engage the independent pollster, Don Anderson, are as we have set them out above, and are in no way politically motivated.
It is also our view that given the fact that the Anderson poll had shown the ruling People's National Party (PNP) ahead of the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), it is non-sensical to argue that the Stone Poll results are being held back, because they showed the PNP ahead of the JLP.


http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20070617t200000-0500_124435_obs_nonsense__.asp

Nonsense!Claims Stone Polls results dumped for political reasons self-serving, says Gorstew
by Desmond Allen Executive Editor - OperationsMonday, June 18, 2007

Gorstew, Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's holding company which owns the Stone Polling Organisation, yesterday described as "self-serving" and "nonsensical", claims that the recent poll results were being dumped for political reasons.
In a statement responding to the claims, Gorstew said the poll results had been leaked to the street and the media, even before it had reached the owners who commissioned it."It is our belief that the poll results are now of no news value to us, since the entire country is now aware of them," the statement said, and expressed regret that "the private circumstances surrounding the operation and future direction of the Stone Polling organisation are now being politicised".
"We take strong objection to this and reject any comments made which seek to discredit our intentions as owners of the Stone Polls and we caution members of any political party against the dangers of politicising private business matters," Gorstew said. That comment was in apparent reference to suggestions by some PNP officials that politics was behind Gorstew's decision to reject the Stone Poll results.
The statement also confirmed that lead consultant on the Stone team, Wyvolyn Gager had resigned over the Observer's decision to commission another pollster, Don Anderson.Anderson was first hired to carry out market surveys for the Observer and then asked to do political polls as well, after a decision by the newspaper to establish itself as the leading publishers of poll in Jamaica.
Gager, a former Gleaner editor-in-chief, saw the move to bring in Anderson as a lack of confidence in the Stone team and sent in her resignation. But Gorstew emphasised that she was was held the highest regard and "we were confident in her leadership of the Stone Team".
In the statement, Gorstew also insisted that given the fact that the Anderson poll had shown the ruling People's National Party (PNP) ahead of the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), it was non-sensical to argue that the Stone polls were being held back, because they showed the PNP ahead of the JLP.The Don Anderson Polls published over three days last week, showed the PNP ahead of the JLP by four percentage points and the PNP leader, Portia Simpson Miller getting more favourable rating over Opposition Leader, Bruce Golding.
"It is our position that with the breach of confidentiality and the resignation of Ms Gager, the Stone Organisation is in need of a complete review and restructuring, and this was communicated to Dr Ian Boxill on June 12, 2007," Gorstew said.
"At that time, it was also communicated to Dr Boxill that given this need for restructuring, we would no longer be requiring his services or those of his team." See full text of Gorstew statement on this page.

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Thanks for your interest, and please keep it clean and focused. My general intent is to discuss Research in general and specifically research designs, methodologies, checks and balances or the lack thereof as it relates to social and political science research.

Congratulations to the JLP on executing an effective public relation strategy, regardless of the 'questionable research procedural ethics' exhibited by what appears to be parties with vested interest.