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Congratulations to both the Peoples National Party and the Jamaica Labour Party.
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X-1
Consistent with the results of the Phantom Researcher (X-1's) predictive scientific research findings posted in this blog on Febuary 6, 2011 and July 9, 2011, the Peoples National Party (PNP) has exacted a decisive election victory in Jamaica's 2011 General Election over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
Post Election data analysis will conclude that, when X-1's research findings are compared with the three standard Pollsters (Johnson, Anderson and Boxill) only one (X-1) can claim valid and reliable SPOT-ON-NESS.
X-1 stated in July of 2011 that their (Standard Pollsters) findings/results will be measured on how close (convergence) their tabular Dionysian methodology comes to the very reliable Apollonian methodology used by X-1. See quote below.
"Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’" (Phantom Researcher X-1, July 9, 2011 Source: http://opinionpollingjamstyle.blogspot.com/2011/07/jamaica-election-2012-stone-methodology.html)
Chart # 3 Validity and Reliability Pyramid
................/ \
............./.X-1. \1st
........../ ...........\
......./..................\
..../........anderson......\ 2nd
../ .........johnson..........\ 3rd
/ ............ boxill .............\ 4th
_______________________________
X-1 Original Research Conclusion:
"Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
...................0....... (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
X-1
"11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter." Source: http://opinionpollingjamstyle.blogspot.com/2011_11_01_archive.html
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BLOWOUT: PNP 41 - JLP 22
Published: Friday | December 30, 2011 41 Comments
Portia Simpson-Miller
People's National Party supporters in ecstasy at the party's Old Hope Road, St Andrew, headquarters on learning of their victory in the polls last night. - Ian Allen/Photographer
Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader, outgoing Prime Minister Andrew Holness (centre), and (from right) his wife Juliet, party General Secretary Aundré Franklin, former Senator Arthur Williams and MP designate for West Kingston, Desmond McKenzie, face the media at the JLP's Belmont Road headquarters last night. - Gladstone Taylor/Photographer1 2 3 >
by Daraine Luton, Senior Staff Reporter
Defying opinion polls that suggested yesterday's general election was too close to call, the People's National Party (PNP) secured a stunning victory, winning 41 of the 63 seats in the House of Representatives.
The party gained 53 per cent of the popular vote.
The result will propel the PNP's president, Portia Simpson Miller, back to the premiership, a job she held for 18 months and lost a mere four years ago when her party was prised from government after more than 18 years in office.
In fact, the defeat of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) meant the first time since the advent of universal adult suffrage, nearly seven decades ago, that an administration has been chucked out after a single term - an outcome that will likely lead to much soul-searching within the organisation.
Indeed, in yesterday's election, several leading JLP figures, including Cabinet ministers Robert Montague and Clive Mullings, spectacularly lost their parliamentary seats
"I want to thank the prime minister who called earlier to congratulate me, and he was very gracious," Simpson Miller said.
"I am humbled by the support of the Jamaican people and I ask you to ensure that you greet JLP supporters with love."
Shaping future together
Simpson Miller said her team would be working with all Jamaicans as one Jamaican family "as we shape the future together".
She had special commendation for Arnaldo Brown, Julian Robinson, Damion Crawford, André Hylton and Raymond Pryce - first-time candidates who secured victories.
She also commended candidates who came close to victory, saying "you are winners".
In conceding the election, outgoing prime minister and JLP leader, Andrew Holness, accepted the result as the will of the people and said the party would listen to the voice of the people.
"It is a time of reflection and introspection for the Jamaica Labour Party. We see it as an opportunity to rebuild and, starting tomorrow, we will be rebuilding," a sombre Holness said.
"It is apparent that the people of Jamaica still have concerns about the JLP and we will reflect on that. I wish the new Government well. They will face several challenges, but I hope for the benefit of the country they will do a good job."
He added: "I was privileged to have served in a short time. I really did not have much room. I had to make the decision that we made. I feel good that I have executed the duties of prime minister over the short time to the best of my ability, and I look forward to another opportunity."
Holness was prime minister for just over two months, having been catapulted to the job after the surprise resignation of his predecessor, Bruce Golding, who accepted that the JLP would have little chance of victory with him at the helm.
Confidence lost
Golding lost public confidence over his administration's resistance of the United States' request for the extradition of now-convicted gangster Christopher 'Dudus' Coke, and the hiring of lobbyists to encourage Washington to go soft on the matter.
In its election manifesto, the PNP promised to renegotiate the country's agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), implement a Jamaica Emergency Employment Programme (JEEP) to arrest the problem of unemployment; and renegotiate the contract of the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) to allow for competition in the transmission and distribution of electricity, among others.
It was also the first time that persons were vying for 63 seats in the House of Representatives.
The JLP won the 2007 general election by a razor-thin majority, securing 32 of the 60 seats in the House. The PNP won the other 28.
The PNP had greeted Holness' announcement of election and nomination day, saying the symbolism of the dates meant a lot to leaders of the party. Simpson Miller celebrated her 66th birthday on nomination day, December 12.
"I want to thank Mr Andrew Holness for giving me the best birthday possible that anyone could ever have. And an excellent Christmas gift for the Jamaican people, and a wonderful and beautiful new year," Simpson Miller said after the election date was announced by Holness in Mandeville.
Nomination day was also special for the PNP's campaign director, Dr Peter Phillips, as it marked the 24th anniversary of his marriage to Sandra Minott Phillips while the eve of yesterday's election was his 62nd birthday.
The PNP has been on the election trail for more than a year. It had blasted the JLP government for the handling of the economy and said it had brought shame on Jamaica with its handling of the extradition request for Coke.
All-island tour
In its bid for leadership of the country, the PNP embarked on an all-island tour during which party officials, led by Simpson Miller and 'Star Boy' K.D. Knight, told the country that Bruce Golding was not suitable to continue as prime minister and that the country needed to go to the polls in a general election.
According to Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls, 21 per cent of Jamaicans lined up behind the JLP in June with that number increasing to 26 per cent by November with Holness at the helm.
The last Gleaner-Johnson poll before the election, done on December 17 and 18, found 38 per cent of Jamaicans were prepared to cast their ballot for the PNP, while 36 per cent would vote JLP.
Heading into the election, the PNP was confident that Jamaicans had accepted its message that it was capable of leading a return to sustained economic growth for the country.
The PNP also claimed the turnout at its mass meetings was "overwhelming, demonstrating the fact that the people are ready for a change of Government."
Yesterday's victory added to general election success secured by the PNP in 1955, 1959, 1972, 1976, 1989, 1993, 1997 and 2002.
The JLP won the elections in 1944, 1949, 1962, 1967, 1980, 1983 and 2007.
daraine.luton@gleanerjm.com
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X-1
"2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
Feb 6th, 2011
Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project
I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.
Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
Pureness Parameters
JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 31.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
Operational Variables:
These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
Scaling/Measurement
How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b
published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
2. Absenteeism in Parliament
published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5
4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments
After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010
THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments
Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm
Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.................0....... (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2 Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter."
Friday, December 30, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
11:59 Election Breeze Polls
X-1
12/23/2011
It's 11:59 figuratively speaking and the curtains are closing on the 2011 Election Polling season with final voting to occur on 12/29/2011. Post 12/29/2011 the media will perform a post mortem of the polls focused on who was "SPOT ON".
Ardent readers of this blog may recall that this blog was established with the science of polling and the manipulation of polling methodology in various research including politics being it's focal point.
X-1 has pursued a contrast or in some cases concurrence between Attitudinal Polling Research and Opinion Polling Research. The rationale, Attitude is deep and generally static/stationary over longer periods of time; Whereas, opinions are generally momentarily changable and certain percentage of voters are easily influenced by Public Relations (PR). This reality leads to opinion polling being used as a tool in a behavioral modification method by design or default to influence voting behavior, and admittedly this method if executed professionally can be very effective.
X-1 guiding theory is, Attitudinal Research is a more valid method of predicting people future behavior, notwithstanding behavioral modification tactics as "water always reverts back to its natural position"
Below I have posted the latest polls from the 'Hired Polling Guns'. Immediately following I reposted excerpts of my original Attitudinal Research for comparison convenience. We will revist after 12/29/2011.
Thank you for following this blog.
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PNP comeback
Published: Friday | December 23, 2011 10 Comments
Portia Simpson Miller
Andrew Holness
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
With a few metres left before the finish line is crossed in the race for Gordon House, the People's National Party (PNP) has made a rally that has seen it sweep past the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the latest check on who is likely to be crowned champion come December 29.
While the two parties remain in a statistical dead heat, the PNP seems to have snatched the momentum from the JLP over the past few days.
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found that if Jamaicans were asked to vote today, 38 per cent would cast their ballot for the PNP while 36 per cent would vote JLP.
With the poll having a sampling error of plus or minus four per cent, there is really nothing separating the two parties going down to the line.
But the PNP seems to have the edge, gaining six percentage points in the past week while the JLP has not moved an inch.
"The JLP came to a screeching halt just over one week ago probably because of issues such as the Government's handling of the United States spy plane revelations and other issues while the PNP seems to have received a boost by its pointing out the inaccuracies of some of the JLP's claims," the pollster told The Gleaner.
"But it is still anybody's game because a two percentage point lead is not significant and what we are seeing is fluidity. The person who said 'probably PNP' one week earlier might now be saying 'probably JLP' or 'undecided'," added Johnson.
When Johnson tested the pulse of the nation on December 10 and 11, the JLP enjoyed 36 per cent support while the PNP trailed with 32 per cent support.
One week later, December 17 and 18, Johnson returned to the field and found that some persons who had previously said they would not vote or who had refused to say who they would vote for have moved behind the Portia Simpson Miller-led party.
The latest poll found the number of undecided voters almost unchanged at 10 per cent compared to nine per cent one week prior while those who will not vote declined by three percentage points to 15 per cent while a negligible number of respondents, one per cent, refused to answer the question.
Before leadership debate
Johnson noted that the latest poll was done after the second of three national debates and would not show what, if any, impact the clash between Simpson Miller and JLP Leader Andrew Holness would have on voting plans.
"These voting intentions are not locked in concrete and the leadership debate could have an impact but the whole thing is very fluid," emphasised Johnson.
He noted that the persons who said they would definitely vote PNP increased from 29 per cent to 35 per cent in one week while those who said the would probably vote PNP remained at three per cent.
For the JLP, those who said they would definitely put their X beside its symbol of the bell moved marginally from 31 to 32 per cent while the voters who said probably JLP dropped from five to four per cent.
However the main reasons why persons would vote the way they indicated, for the most part, remained almost unchanged.
For the JLP, 34 per cent of the persons who say they will vote for the party say they are "diehard Labourites"; 15 per cent said it is better than the PNP; while 12 per cent said Holness deserves a chance. But that is down from 19 per cent one week earlier.
On the PNP side, 31 per cent who said they would vote for the party claimed that was because they are rock-stone Comrades, down from 36 per cent one week earlier.
Eighteen per cent said the party is better than the JLP and 13 per cent said the PNP would do a better job of running the country.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was conducted in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
PNP: 38
JLP: 36
UNDECIDED: 10
WOULD NOT VOTE: 15
REFUSED: 1
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Poll numbers heading in the wrong direction for JLP leader
Published: Friday | December 23, 2011 6 Comments
It appears the shine has started to rub off Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Prime Minister Andrew Holness, with most of his numbers trending down.
A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found a dip in the favourability rating for Holness and a reduction in the number of persons who believe he should be returned as prime minister.
There is also a decline in the number of persons who believe he would do a better job than the People's National Party's (PNP) Portia Simpson Miller as the head of State.
The poll, conducted before the national leadership debate on Tuesday, found that for the first time since he was sworn in to lead the Government, Holness trails Simpson Miller in favourability rating, even though he continues to lead her as the person most Jamaicans think would do the better job as prime minister.
Cannot walk on water
"People are now realising that Holness cannot walk on water. He is being humanised as the days go by," said pollster Bill Johnson.
"The JLP received a significant boost because of Holness but now Jamaicans are seeing him with his strengths and weaknesses like all of us and are making informed judgements," added Johnson.
According to the poll, conducted on December 17 and 18, Holness is now viewed favourably by 47 per cent of Jamaicans, down from 51 per cent in November and 49 per cent earlier this month.
The number of persons who view Holness in an unfavourable light is also on an upward trajectory, 24 per cent in November, 25 per cent early December and 31 per cent in the latest poll.
For Simpson Miller, her favourability rating has climbed to 50 per cent, its highest level in months. The persons who view the PNP president in a negative light has declined from a high of 40 per cent in June to 37 per cent in the latest poll.
Holness for PM
But despite the increase in her favourability rating, Simpson Miller continues to trail Holness as the person Jamaicans want to lead the government.
Fifty per cent of Jamaicans believe Holness should remain as prime minister. This is down from the 55 per cent recorded early in December but still a healthy lead over the 35 per cent who say they want someone else.
Holness enjoys a 42 per cent support when he is matched up with Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans think would do a better job as prime minister. The PNP president gets the nod from 39 per cent of Jamaicans while 19 per cent say they are undecided.
Despite still trailing Holness, Simpson Miller is enjoying the momentum as in November she was behind by eight percentage points when the two were matched up. That increased to nine percentage points in early December but is now down to a three percentage point gap.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was done in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20111223/lead/lead2.html
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PNP has slightly better favourability rating
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
NEITHER the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) nor the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) received a strong positive rating from persons interviewed by pollster Don Anderson earlier this month.
Of the 1,000 registered voters polled in more than 150 locations islandwide, Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Limited found that 37.4 per cent gave the JLP a favourable rating, while 40.6 per cent gave the party an unfavourable rating. Another 22 per cent had no opinion on this issue.
Supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party and ruling Jamaica Labour Party have fun during Nomination Day activities in Kingston last week Monday. (Observer file photo)
Supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party and ruling Jamaica Labour Party have fun during Nomination Day activities in Kingston last week Monday. (Observer file photo) 1/1
"The PNP has only a slightly better favourability rating than the JLP with 40.7 per cent considering its performance and standing to be favourable, with 35.8 per cent giving this party an unfavourable rating. 23.5 per cent have no opinion of the PNP," Anderson said.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
"The majority, then, either have no opinion of the parties or view them negatively, a factor which feeds into the high incidence of persons who appear to be disenchanted with the political process and are, at this time, either disinclined to vote or not sure they will in upcoming elections," Anderson said.
According to the pollster, this data is highly consistent with another poll conducted by his team for the CVM-TV Group between November 17 and 21.
In that survey, the JLP had a favourability rating of 37 per cent, while the PNP's was 41 per cent. The unfavourability ratings of the parties stood at 41 per cent JLP and 35 per cent PNP.
Said Anderson: "Efforts over the last month by both parties to create a more positive impression amongst Jamaicans have not borne fruit, again an indication that there is a hard core of the electorate who are not enamoured by either party and who might be difficult to convince to come out to vote if they are now disinclined to do so."
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/PNP-has-slightly-better-favourability-rating_10434727#ixzz1hlrNtYcb
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Andrew ahead of Portia — Polls
JLP leader better to represent Ja locally and abroad
Thursday, December 15, 2011
A majority of Jamaicans believe that Andrew Holness is a better leader than Portia Simpson Miller to represent the country locally and overseas. This was one of the findings of the latest Observer/Don Anderson Polls conducted between December 5 and 11, 2011. Anderson and his Market Research Services team interviewed 1,000 registered voters in all parishes in the island, covering over 150 different locations. The margin of error was plus or minus 3%.
(L-R) HOLNESS... better to represent Jamaica. SIMPSON MILLER... trails Holness in leadership polls
Asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country overseas, 44.2 per cent of Jamaicans polled said the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader and Prime Minister Andrew Holness, compared with 38.9 per cent who said People's National Party (PNP) leader and former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.
When asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country locally, a smaller majority of 42.9 per cent said Holness against 41.3 per cent who chose Simpson Miller.
"Empirical data has shown that perception of the respective leaders has been an important issue in party support in previous elections, especially in the 90s and early to mid 2000s when PJ Patterson and Edward Seaga were the respective leaders of the PNP and the JLP," Anderson said in his notes to the polls.
He noted that the recent elevation to the higher office of prime minister of the "generally highly regarded Holness has boosted his favourability rating amongst Jamaicans to the point where he is now better perceived than PNP leader Simpson Miller..."
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/elections/news/Andrew-ahead-of-Portia-JLP-leader-better-to-represent-Ja-locally-and-abroad_10393439
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JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1hOF8O9Nt
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Attitudinal Polling vs Opinion Polling
Attitudinal Polling Method
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.
The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"
___________________________________
X-1 Phantom Researcher
"2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research
___________________________________
2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
Feb 6th, 2011
Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project
Author X-1
I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.
Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
Pureness Parameters
JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
Operational Variables:
These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
Scaling/Measurement
How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months.
The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters (Johnson, Anderson & Boxill) riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
Survey Data Inferential Findings
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
(Likert Scaling)
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php
1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5
4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments
After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010
THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments
Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm
Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter."
12/23/2011
It's 11:59 figuratively speaking and the curtains are closing on the 2011 Election Polling season with final voting to occur on 12/29/2011. Post 12/29/2011 the media will perform a post mortem of the polls focused on who was "SPOT ON".
Ardent readers of this blog may recall that this blog was established with the science of polling and the manipulation of polling methodology in various research including politics being it's focal point.
X-1 has pursued a contrast or in some cases concurrence between Attitudinal Polling Research and Opinion Polling Research. The rationale, Attitude is deep and generally static/stationary over longer periods of time; Whereas, opinions are generally momentarily changable and certain percentage of voters are easily influenced by Public Relations (PR). This reality leads to opinion polling being used as a tool in a behavioral modification method by design or default to influence voting behavior, and admittedly this method if executed professionally can be very effective.
X-1 guiding theory is, Attitudinal Research is a more valid method of predicting people future behavior, notwithstanding behavioral modification tactics as "water always reverts back to its natural position"
Below I have posted the latest polls from the 'Hired Polling Guns'. Immediately following I reposted excerpts of my original Attitudinal Research for comparison convenience. We will revist after 12/29/2011.
Thank you for following this blog.
***********************************
PNP comeback
Published: Friday | December 23, 2011 10 Comments
Portia Simpson Miller
Andrew Holness
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
With a few metres left before the finish line is crossed in the race for Gordon House, the People's National Party (PNP) has made a rally that has seen it sweep past the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the latest check on who is likely to be crowned champion come December 29.
While the two parties remain in a statistical dead heat, the PNP seems to have snatched the momentum from the JLP over the past few days.
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found that if Jamaicans were asked to vote today, 38 per cent would cast their ballot for the PNP while 36 per cent would vote JLP.
With the poll having a sampling error of plus or minus four per cent, there is really nothing separating the two parties going down to the line.
But the PNP seems to have the edge, gaining six percentage points in the past week while the JLP has not moved an inch.
"The JLP came to a screeching halt just over one week ago probably because of issues such as the Government's handling of the United States spy plane revelations and other issues while the PNP seems to have received a boost by its pointing out the inaccuracies of some of the JLP's claims," the pollster told The Gleaner.
"But it is still anybody's game because a two percentage point lead is not significant and what we are seeing is fluidity. The person who said 'probably PNP' one week earlier might now be saying 'probably JLP' or 'undecided'," added Johnson.
When Johnson tested the pulse of the nation on December 10 and 11, the JLP enjoyed 36 per cent support while the PNP trailed with 32 per cent support.
One week later, December 17 and 18, Johnson returned to the field and found that some persons who had previously said they would not vote or who had refused to say who they would vote for have moved behind the Portia Simpson Miller-led party.
The latest poll found the number of undecided voters almost unchanged at 10 per cent compared to nine per cent one week prior while those who will not vote declined by three percentage points to 15 per cent while a negligible number of respondents, one per cent, refused to answer the question.
Before leadership debate
Johnson noted that the latest poll was done after the second of three national debates and would not show what, if any, impact the clash between Simpson Miller and JLP Leader Andrew Holness would have on voting plans.
"These voting intentions are not locked in concrete and the leadership debate could have an impact but the whole thing is very fluid," emphasised Johnson.
He noted that the persons who said they would definitely vote PNP increased from 29 per cent to 35 per cent in one week while those who said the would probably vote PNP remained at three per cent.
For the JLP, those who said they would definitely put their X beside its symbol of the bell moved marginally from 31 to 32 per cent while the voters who said probably JLP dropped from five to four per cent.
However the main reasons why persons would vote the way they indicated, for the most part, remained almost unchanged.
For the JLP, 34 per cent of the persons who say they will vote for the party say they are "diehard Labourites"; 15 per cent said it is better than the PNP; while 12 per cent said Holness deserves a chance. But that is down from 19 per cent one week earlier.
On the PNP side, 31 per cent who said they would vote for the party claimed that was because they are rock-stone Comrades, down from 36 per cent one week earlier.
Eighteen per cent said the party is better than the JLP and 13 per cent said the PNP would do a better job of running the country.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was conducted in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
PNP: 38
JLP: 36
UNDECIDED: 10
WOULD NOT VOTE: 15
REFUSED: 1
**************
Poll numbers heading in the wrong direction for JLP leader
Published: Friday | December 23, 2011 6 Comments
It appears the shine has started to rub off Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Prime Minister Andrew Holness, with most of his numbers trending down.
A just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found a dip in the favourability rating for Holness and a reduction in the number of persons who believe he should be returned as prime minister.
There is also a decline in the number of persons who believe he would do a better job than the People's National Party's (PNP) Portia Simpson Miller as the head of State.
The poll, conducted before the national leadership debate on Tuesday, found that for the first time since he was sworn in to lead the Government, Holness trails Simpson Miller in favourability rating, even though he continues to lead her as the person most Jamaicans think would do the better job as prime minister.
Cannot walk on water
"People are now realising that Holness cannot walk on water. He is being humanised as the days go by," said pollster Bill Johnson.
"The JLP received a significant boost because of Holness but now Jamaicans are seeing him with his strengths and weaknesses like all of us and are making informed judgements," added Johnson.
According to the poll, conducted on December 17 and 18, Holness is now viewed favourably by 47 per cent of Jamaicans, down from 51 per cent in November and 49 per cent earlier this month.
The number of persons who view Holness in an unfavourable light is also on an upward trajectory, 24 per cent in November, 25 per cent early December and 31 per cent in the latest poll.
For Simpson Miller, her favourability rating has climbed to 50 per cent, its highest level in months. The persons who view the PNP president in a negative light has declined from a high of 40 per cent in June to 37 per cent in the latest poll.
Holness for PM
But despite the increase in her favourability rating, Simpson Miller continues to trail Holness as the person Jamaicans want to lead the government.
Fifty per cent of Jamaicans believe Holness should remain as prime minister. This is down from the 55 per cent recorded early in December but still a healthy lead over the 35 per cent who say they want someone else.
Holness enjoys a 42 per cent support when he is matched up with Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans think would do a better job as prime minister. The PNP president gets the nod from 39 per cent of Jamaicans while 19 per cent say they are undecided.
Despite still trailing Holness, Simpson Miller is enjoying the momentum as in November she was behind by eight percentage points when the two were matched up. That increased to nine percentage points in early December but is now down to a three percentage point gap.
The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll was done in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20111223/lead/lead2.html
*************
PNP has slightly better favourability rating
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
NEITHER the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) nor the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) received a strong positive rating from persons interviewed by pollster Don Anderson earlier this month.
Of the 1,000 registered voters polled in more than 150 locations islandwide, Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Limited found that 37.4 per cent gave the JLP a favourable rating, while 40.6 per cent gave the party an unfavourable rating. Another 22 per cent had no opinion on this issue.
Supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party and ruling Jamaica Labour Party have fun during Nomination Day activities in Kingston last week Monday. (Observer file photo)
Supporters of the Opposition People’s National Party and ruling Jamaica Labour Party have fun during Nomination Day activities in Kingston last week Monday. (Observer file photo) 1/1
"The PNP has only a slightly better favourability rating than the JLP with 40.7 per cent considering its performance and standing to be favourable, with 35.8 per cent giving this party an unfavourable rating. 23.5 per cent have no opinion of the PNP," Anderson said.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
"The majority, then, either have no opinion of the parties or view them negatively, a factor which feeds into the high incidence of persons who appear to be disenchanted with the political process and are, at this time, either disinclined to vote or not sure they will in upcoming elections," Anderson said.
According to the pollster, this data is highly consistent with another poll conducted by his team for the CVM-TV Group between November 17 and 21.
In that survey, the JLP had a favourability rating of 37 per cent, while the PNP's was 41 per cent. The unfavourability ratings of the parties stood at 41 per cent JLP and 35 per cent PNP.
Said Anderson: "Efforts over the last month by both parties to create a more positive impression amongst Jamaicans have not borne fruit, again an indication that there is a hard core of the electorate who are not enamoured by either party and who might be difficult to convince to come out to vote if they are now disinclined to do so."
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/PNP-has-slightly-better-favourability-rating_10434727#ixzz1hlrNtYcb
*************
Andrew ahead of Portia — Polls
JLP leader better to represent Ja locally and abroad
Thursday, December 15, 2011
A majority of Jamaicans believe that Andrew Holness is a better leader than Portia Simpson Miller to represent the country locally and overseas. This was one of the findings of the latest Observer/Don Anderson Polls conducted between December 5 and 11, 2011. Anderson and his Market Research Services team interviewed 1,000 registered voters in all parishes in the island, covering over 150 different locations. The margin of error was plus or minus 3%.
(L-R) HOLNESS... better to represent Jamaica. SIMPSON MILLER... trails Holness in leadership polls
Asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country overseas, 44.2 per cent of Jamaicans polled said the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader and Prime Minister Andrew Holness, compared with 38.9 per cent who said People's National Party (PNP) leader and former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.
When asked which of the two leaders would be better able to represent the country locally, a smaller majority of 42.9 per cent said Holness against 41.3 per cent who chose Simpson Miller.
"Empirical data has shown that perception of the respective leaders has been an important issue in party support in previous elections, especially in the 90s and early to mid 2000s when PJ Patterson and Edward Seaga were the respective leaders of the PNP and the JLP," Anderson said in his notes to the polls.
He noted that the recent elevation to the higher office of prime minister of the "generally highly regarded Holness has boosted his favourability rating amongst Jamaicans to the point where he is now better perceived than PNP leader Simpson Miller..."
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/elections/news/Andrew-ahead-of-Portia-JLP-leader-better-to-represent-Ja-locally-and-abroad_10393439
**********
JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1hOF8O9Nt
************
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Attitudinal Polling vs Opinion Polling
Attitudinal Polling Method
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.
The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"
___________________________________
X-1 Phantom Researcher
"2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research
___________________________________
2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version
Feb 6th, 2011
Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project
Author X-1
I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.
This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.
Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)
Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.
The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.
The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure
The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.
Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.
“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)
Pureness Parameters
JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.
PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.
Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.
Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007
Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001
Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.
Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.
Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.
Operational Variables:
These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.
Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.
Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.
Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).
Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.
Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.
Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.
Scaling/Measurement
How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.
Re-inforcement of Theory
This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months.
The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters (Johnson, Anderson & Boxill) riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.
Survey Data Inferential Findings
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
(Likert Scaling)
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php
1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
2. Absenteeism in Parliament published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009
Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter
Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5
4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments
After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010
THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments
Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html
Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:
Jlp
-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Pnp
-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
Nnc
-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5
“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm
Attitudinal Survey Data
This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.
Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:
Jlp = +1
Pnp = +5
Nnc = -1
Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1
-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
(Survey using Proxy data)
Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…
11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0
11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%
.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10
11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%
.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10
Chart # 2Scale 10=100
..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10
• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter."
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Linear Correlation between Voter turnout % and Winner
In the 2007 Election the voter turnout was 60% according to DOE Mr. Danville Walker. "Director of Elections Danville Walker yesterday's voter turnout was a modest 60.40 per cent"
In analysing requisite data, it appears that the dividing winning threshold between a)voter turnout and b) election victory correlation, falls within the range of 60-67%.
A low turnout will see a victory for one party, while a high turnout will see a victory for a different party. Low is defined as 59.6% or lower, high is defined as 66.6% or higher. 60-67% represents turnout could result in either party winning.
*************
Why they won't vote
No party any better than the other, say most undecided voters
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
ONE University of the West Indies lecturer is predicting a voter turnout of between 71 and 76 per cent come election day Thursday.
Anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle says his survey team has produced a 'snapshot' study based on a canvass of 480 poor, near-poor, upper and middle-class men and women from rural and urban Jamaica.
The study considered the opinions of some persons in rural Jamaica over the age of 35, and some from urban town centres who between the ages 18 to 34.
The survey was conducted December 14 to 19, this year and took into account 56 constituencies across all parishes.
Two questions were posed:
1. Are you going to vote this election?
- If No, why not?
- If Yes, answer #2:
2.When you go to vote this election, what will be your main motivation? (Respondents could not select more than three options).
a. The party
b. The party leader
c. The candidate
d. Issues/policies
e. Gifts or money or the promise of any
f. Other
According to Dr Gayle, the results were divided into two sections: Why persons cannot, or may not vote, and why they are likely to vote. The researcher explained that, "though it was not requested, most persons gave tremendous details to support their decision."
According to the Gayle research team data, 340 of the 480 persons surveyed, said they will vote come Thursday. It estimated the highest possible voter turnout as being 76 per cent -- if all voter-motivating factors are held ceteris paribus (if nothing changes).
However, it could fall below 71 per cent given the fact that a number of persons who expressed an intention to vote may decide against doing so on the actual day.
"Almost a quarter (24 per cent or 140 of the respondents) either cannot vote or have expressed that it is highly likely that they will not vote in the upcoming elections. Five percent of respondents are still undecided at this stage; but represent those who are likely to vote if something changes," the anthropologist said.
Twenty-six persons expressed that they may make up their minds before the poll, (10 days away at the time of the survey) but they were hesitant to make a firm decision.
Eight of these persons were waiting to hear how the parties will address the economy: "How dem going to pay back the $1.6 trillion (loaned by the IMF) or make ordinary people feed dem children."
Six said they were JLP "but do not trust Andrew (Holness); five said they were PNP, "but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller); six said "none of the parties better", and a single respondent said he/she did not like his/her MP.
"Ten of these persons are poor, nine are near poor, and seven are middle and upper classes; 17 are females, nine are males; 11, urban, 15, rural. The most distinct difference here is therefore gender -- women clearly dominate this small group -- wanting to vote, but waiting for something to convince them," was Dr Gayle's analysis.
One hundred and fifteen persons surveyed who are on the voters list and, therefore, have a vote, said they won't take advantage of the opportunity.
This is the critical group to assess, said Dr Gayle, noting that "It is made up of all the persons who have not expressed that they will be voting (140) minus those who are not on the voters list (25 or 18 per cent of this group).
"By removing those who cannot vote, we are able to assess the major 'turn off' factors. It is important to note that a number of those who are not on the voters list are in that situation because they had little or no interest. Nonetheless, we have no clear data to assess the proportion, hence, the entire number of those who cannot vote (not on the voters list) are dropped from this analysis," said the anthropologist.
Forty-nine per cent said they won't exercise their franchise because "None of the parties is any better". Fifteen per cent said "I am JLP, but don't trust Andrew (Holness)". Eight per cent said " I am PNP but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller). Eight per cent gave no reason for not voting. Seven per cent said they were still waiting for policy solutions. Seven per cent said "My party is too corrupt". Two per cent said they do not like their MP. Two per cent blamed the ruling party's young affiliate group for their decision, saying, "I am a JLP, but scared of G2K's direction". Another two per cent pointed to voter intimidation, saying they "fear to vote against party in garrison".
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Why-they-won-t-vote_10460228#ixzz1hls2ApJC
In analysing requisite data, it appears that the dividing winning threshold between a)voter turnout and b) election victory correlation, falls within the range of 60-67%.
A low turnout will see a victory for one party, while a high turnout will see a victory for a different party. Low is defined as 59.6% or lower, high is defined as 66.6% or higher. 60-67% represents turnout could result in either party winning.
*************
Why they won't vote
No party any better than the other, say most undecided voters
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
ONE University of the West Indies lecturer is predicting a voter turnout of between 71 and 76 per cent come election day Thursday.
Anthropologist Dr Herbert Gayle says his survey team has produced a 'snapshot' study based on a canvass of 480 poor, near-poor, upper and middle-class men and women from rural and urban Jamaica.
The study considered the opinions of some persons in rural Jamaica over the age of 35, and some from urban town centres who between the ages 18 to 34.
The survey was conducted December 14 to 19, this year and took into account 56 constituencies across all parishes.
Two questions were posed:
1. Are you going to vote this election?
- If No, why not?
- If Yes, answer #2:
2.When you go to vote this election, what will be your main motivation? (Respondents could not select more than three options).
a. The party
b. The party leader
c. The candidate
d. Issues/policies
e. Gifts or money or the promise of any
f. Other
According to Dr Gayle, the results were divided into two sections: Why persons cannot, or may not vote, and why they are likely to vote. The researcher explained that, "though it was not requested, most persons gave tremendous details to support their decision."
According to the Gayle research team data, 340 of the 480 persons surveyed, said they will vote come Thursday. It estimated the highest possible voter turnout as being 76 per cent -- if all voter-motivating factors are held ceteris paribus (if nothing changes).
However, it could fall below 71 per cent given the fact that a number of persons who expressed an intention to vote may decide against doing so on the actual day.
"Almost a quarter (24 per cent or 140 of the respondents) either cannot vote or have expressed that it is highly likely that they will not vote in the upcoming elections. Five percent of respondents are still undecided at this stage; but represent those who are likely to vote if something changes," the anthropologist said.
Twenty-six persons expressed that they may make up their minds before the poll, (10 days away at the time of the survey) but they were hesitant to make a firm decision.
Eight of these persons were waiting to hear how the parties will address the economy: "How dem going to pay back the $1.6 trillion (loaned by the IMF) or make ordinary people feed dem children."
Six said they were JLP "but do not trust Andrew (Holness); five said they were PNP, "but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller); six said "none of the parties better", and a single respondent said he/she did not like his/her MP.
"Ten of these persons are poor, nine are near poor, and seven are middle and upper classes; 17 are females, nine are males; 11, urban, 15, rural. The most distinct difference here is therefore gender -- women clearly dominate this small group -- wanting to vote, but waiting for something to convince them," was Dr Gayle's analysis.
One hundred and fifteen persons surveyed who are on the voters list and, therefore, have a vote, said they won't take advantage of the opportunity.
This is the critical group to assess, said Dr Gayle, noting that "It is made up of all the persons who have not expressed that they will be voting (140) minus those who are not on the voters list (25 or 18 per cent of this group).
"By removing those who cannot vote, we are able to assess the major 'turn off' factors. It is important to note that a number of those who are not on the voters list are in that situation because they had little or no interest. Nonetheless, we have no clear data to assess the proportion, hence, the entire number of those who cannot vote (not on the voters list) are dropped from this analysis," said the anthropologist.
Forty-nine per cent said they won't exercise their franchise because "None of the parties is any better". Fifteen per cent said "I am JLP, but don't trust Andrew (Holness)". Eight per cent said " I am PNP but do not like Portia (Simpson Miller). Eight per cent gave no reason for not voting. Seven per cent said they were still waiting for policy solutions. Seven per cent said "My party is too corrupt". Two per cent said they do not like their MP. Two per cent blamed the ruling party's young affiliate group for their decision, saying, "I am a JLP, but scared of G2K's direction". Another two per cent pointed to voter intimidation, saying they "fear to vote against party in garrison".
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Why-they-won-t-vote_10460228#ixzz1hls2ApJC
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
"Browning Please". The Big 'White Elephant' in the Room "Race, Gender & Class" JLPEXPLOITRACISM
It appears that the JLP has inadvertedly introduced "Race, Gender & Class" into the election by playing(patronizing)the audience in South St. Elizabeth ( a place universally associated with brownings) with their pretty woman bonnununus statement.
Not sure how this will play out, as this is Jamaica and our brain washed heads are usually in the sand, as the general sentiment is: "we dont have a "race" problem in Jamaica, our issue is class"
Oftentimes the correlation between Class and Race is not obvious i.e. they are 1st cousins; otherwise 6 and half dozen are the same. Race, Class and Gender is too sensitive to be causally treated in an election campaign. This is an unfortunate mis-step by the JLP leadership.
The JLP can least afford to make this error, as racial divisions are obvious and exploitable; slippery slope Mr. Vaz....you should be more careful the demographic are not in your party's favour. Mr. Holness your party should issue an immediate apology clarifying the statements, B4 it gathers negative steam, which already started.
Is the JLP willing to accept the votes of 'those' very, very black women that are not necessarily viewed as being 'pretty'; while simulatneously disqualifying them from being selected to represent the party? This is called 'JLPEXPLOITRACISM'
************
'Brownings, please'
Published: Sunday | September 11, 2011 204 Comments
Correction & Clarification
The Gleaner wishes to reiterate and clarify that the picture of the model which appeared in The Sunday Gleaner of September 11, under the headline 'Brownings, please', was in no way meant to depict that the model in the photo in any way benefited from or was associated with the discriminatory practice described in the said story. The Gleaner regrets any inconvenience or embarrassment occasioned to the model by the publication.
... Several local businesses asking state-owned employment agency for light-skinned trainees
Tyrone Reid, Enterprise Reporter
A hundred and seventy-seven years after slavery was abolished in the British West Indies, Jamaica's national training agency - HEART Trust - still has to deal with colour-prejudiced employers who are requesting that trainees be brown or light-skinned as a prerequisite for employment in their firms.
A highly placed source at HEART Trust told our news team that on the one hand, some employers note the discriminatory requests on forms provided by HEART Trust under a section that asks them to list specifications that the prospective trainee should meet.
On the one hand, some employers spew out their bigoted requirement to the face of the HEART Trust's training agents or training support officers. "Some are brazen enough," the source said.
"We have had certain firms that have required persons of a certain complexion," said the well-placed informant, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak with the media.
"I was very blown by the request," said a HEART Trust employee who personally have dealt with clients making such requests. "We try our best not to (accommodate the discrimination) … sometimes we try to ignore the request," the employee added.
Our news team understands that in a bid to discourage the discrimination, HEART Trust often drop entities that make such requests, from the list of establishments trainees are sent to for job experience.
The colour-specific requests come from proprietors, personnel managers or the administrative staff who are asked to handle the process of securing trainees for the organisation.
Meanwhile, The Sunday Gleaner source pointed out that the prejudice usually surfaces when employers are seeking trainees to fill "front counter staff" positions as those persons are deemed to be the face of the organisation.
Noted psychologist Dr Leahcim Semaj, who is also CEO of the Job Bank - an entity that screens and assesses prospective employees for its corporate clients - said the skin-tone discrimination is still clear and present but has largely retreated underground.
"It is usually not articulated. I have heard of it. Years ago it was more specific for front-line positions such as receptionists and those dealing specifically with clients.
"There was a time in Jamaica that it (being of a light complexion) was one of the criteria to work in a bank," said Semaj.
He added: "It still is (a problem). You can't blatantly come out and say it (because) Jamaica is still a black country (therefore) it is not something they can come out and say but they will find subtle ways."
The psychologist explained that many people in Jamaica are still of the opinion that persons with lighter complexion are more attractive.
tyrone.reid@gleanerjm.com
****************
Women's group cries foul over JLP campaign statements
Published: Thursday | December 22, 2011 17 Comments
Nadisha Hunter, Staff Reporter
In the wake of recent statements made by members of the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), which zeroed in on the party's love for women, a coalition of women is demanding a clear shift in attitude and campaigning leading up to the general election.
Recently, West Portland JLP candidate Daryl Vaz said during a mass rally in Junction, St Elizabeth, that the JLP is fielding "13 'boonoonoonus' pretty woman" in the election".
Prime Minister Andrew Holness and JLP Deputy Leader Dr Christopher Tufton also weighed in on the love for women at the rally.
The 51% Coalition said the JLP platform statements demean and undermine Jamaican women.
This is the second time since the start of the week that concerns have been raised about the statements.
The People's National Party Women's Movement had condemned the comments, saying the JLP candidates' statements were belittling of the contribution that women could and have made to the political process in Jamaica.
The release by the groups was yesterday sent by Marcia Forbes, one-time political aide of former JLP leader and Prime Minister Bruce Golding.
Demeaning
"The statement coming from the JLP platform suggests that women candidates are not celebrated for their intelligence but only valued for looks, valued primarily as objects of men's love, without a focus on their multiple competencies," the statement read.
"This includes our strong management and leadership skills, capacity and commitment to our families."
The 51% Coalition, which references the percentage of persons in the population whose gender is female, suggested that women have been selected by the JLP as a result of beauty and body only, and a strategy to pull the female vote to the party.
"This we find to be demeaning to female candidates, and to all Jamaican women. We insist that women participating in the political process are not to be seen as competitors in a contest about beauty and sexuality, but as persons seeking to be involved in serious nation building," the statement read.
"We want to see respect for women and men of integrity who put themselves forward. We want to see practical proposals that will result in the early implementation of the National Policy on Gender Equality," the group said.
"We want to have commitment to implement-ation of quotas that will see all public-sector boards, and the Senate having as members, no less than 40 per cent and no more than 60 per cent of either sex," it further stated.
Among the persons who signed the release are the Association of Women's Organisations in Jamaica, Institute for Gender and Development Studies - Mona Unit, Women's Resource and Outreach Centre and Women's Media Watch Jamaica.
nadisha.hunter@gleanerjm.com
Not sure how this will play out, as this is Jamaica and our brain washed heads are usually in the sand, as the general sentiment is: "we dont have a "race" problem in Jamaica, our issue is class"
Oftentimes the correlation between Class and Race is not obvious i.e. they are 1st cousins; otherwise 6 and half dozen are the same. Race, Class and Gender is too sensitive to be causally treated in an election campaign. This is an unfortunate mis-step by the JLP leadership.
The JLP can least afford to make this error, as racial divisions are obvious and exploitable; slippery slope Mr. Vaz....you should be more careful the demographic are not in your party's favour. Mr. Holness your party should issue an immediate apology clarifying the statements, B4 it gathers negative steam, which already started.
Is the JLP willing to accept the votes of 'those' very, very black women that are not necessarily viewed as being 'pretty'; while simulatneously disqualifying them from being selected to represent the party? This is called 'JLPEXPLOITRACISM'
************
'Brownings, please'
Published: Sunday | September 11, 2011 204 Comments
Correction & Clarification
The Gleaner wishes to reiterate and clarify that the picture of the model which appeared in The Sunday Gleaner of September 11, under the headline 'Brownings, please', was in no way meant to depict that the model in the photo in any way benefited from or was associated with the discriminatory practice described in the said story. The Gleaner regrets any inconvenience or embarrassment occasioned to the model by the publication.
... Several local businesses asking state-owned employment agency for light-skinned trainees
Tyrone Reid, Enterprise Reporter
A hundred and seventy-seven years after slavery was abolished in the British West Indies, Jamaica's national training agency - HEART Trust - still has to deal with colour-prejudiced employers who are requesting that trainees be brown or light-skinned as a prerequisite for employment in their firms.
A highly placed source at HEART Trust told our news team that on the one hand, some employers note the discriminatory requests on forms provided by HEART Trust under a section that asks them to list specifications that the prospective trainee should meet.
On the one hand, some employers spew out their bigoted requirement to the face of the HEART Trust's training agents or training support officers. "Some are brazen enough," the source said.
"We have had certain firms that have required persons of a certain complexion," said the well-placed informant, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak with the media.
"I was very blown by the request," said a HEART Trust employee who personally have dealt with clients making such requests. "We try our best not to (accommodate the discrimination) … sometimes we try to ignore the request," the employee added.
Our news team understands that in a bid to discourage the discrimination, HEART Trust often drop entities that make such requests, from the list of establishments trainees are sent to for job experience.
The colour-specific requests come from proprietors, personnel managers or the administrative staff who are asked to handle the process of securing trainees for the organisation.
Meanwhile, The Sunday Gleaner source pointed out that the prejudice usually surfaces when employers are seeking trainees to fill "front counter staff" positions as those persons are deemed to be the face of the organisation.
Noted psychologist Dr Leahcim Semaj, who is also CEO of the Job Bank - an entity that screens and assesses prospective employees for its corporate clients - said the skin-tone discrimination is still clear and present but has largely retreated underground.
"It is usually not articulated. I have heard of it. Years ago it was more specific for front-line positions such as receptionists and those dealing specifically with clients.
"There was a time in Jamaica that it (being of a light complexion) was one of the criteria to work in a bank," said Semaj.
He added: "It still is (a problem). You can't blatantly come out and say it (because) Jamaica is still a black country (therefore) it is not something they can come out and say but they will find subtle ways."
The psychologist explained that many people in Jamaica are still of the opinion that persons with lighter complexion are more attractive.
tyrone.reid@gleanerjm.com
****************
Women's group cries foul over JLP campaign statements
Published: Thursday | December 22, 2011 17 Comments
Nadisha Hunter, Staff Reporter
In the wake of recent statements made by members of the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), which zeroed in on the party's love for women, a coalition of women is demanding a clear shift in attitude and campaigning leading up to the general election.
Recently, West Portland JLP candidate Daryl Vaz said during a mass rally in Junction, St Elizabeth, that the JLP is fielding "13 'boonoonoonus' pretty woman" in the election".
Prime Minister Andrew Holness and JLP Deputy Leader Dr Christopher Tufton also weighed in on the love for women at the rally.
The 51% Coalition said the JLP platform statements demean and undermine Jamaican women.
This is the second time since the start of the week that concerns have been raised about the statements.
The People's National Party Women's Movement had condemned the comments, saying the JLP candidates' statements were belittling of the contribution that women could and have made to the political process in Jamaica.
The release by the groups was yesterday sent by Marcia Forbes, one-time political aide of former JLP leader and Prime Minister Bruce Golding.
Demeaning
"The statement coming from the JLP platform suggests that women candidates are not celebrated for their intelligence but only valued for looks, valued primarily as objects of men's love, without a focus on their multiple competencies," the statement read.
"This includes our strong management and leadership skills, capacity and commitment to our families."
The 51% Coalition, which references the percentage of persons in the population whose gender is female, suggested that women have been selected by the JLP as a result of beauty and body only, and a strategy to pull the female vote to the party.
"This we find to be demeaning to female candidates, and to all Jamaican women. We insist that women participating in the political process are not to be seen as competitors in a contest about beauty and sexuality, but as persons seeking to be involved in serious nation building," the statement read.
"We want to see respect for women and men of integrity who put themselves forward. We want to see practical proposals that will result in the early implementation of the National Policy on Gender Equality," the group said.
"We want to have commitment to implement-ation of quotas that will see all public-sector boards, and the Senate having as members, no less than 40 per cent and no more than 60 per cent of either sex," it further stated.
Among the persons who signed the release are the Association of Women's Organisations in Jamaica, Institute for Gender and Development Studies - Mona Unit, Women's Resource and Outreach Centre and Women's Media Watch Jamaica.
nadisha.hunter@gleanerjm.com
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Election 2011 Prime Minister Debate
12/20/2011 5pm Pre Debate
"Portia vs Andrew tonight!
Debates Commission says all set for leadership debate
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
THE Jamaica Debates Commission (JDC) says all is in place for tonight's leadership debate between Prime Minister Andrew Holness and Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller, the final before the December 29 general election.
The debate, which begins at 9:00 pm, will be held at the Faculty of Law at the University of the West Indies, Mona before a studio audience of approximately 200 people made up of guests of the political parties, guests of the commission and the University of the West Indies.
"A dress rehearsal for the event was held early on Monday where television production, protocol, security and operational areas were checked and finalised," the JDC said yesterday.
For tonight's debate, there will be two questioners — Dionne Jackson-Miller of RJR and Franklin McKnight of IRIE FM/ZIP FM and the Northcoast Times. In place of a third questioner, independent members of the audience will be allowed to pose one in every three questions. The moderator is Dervan Malcolm of Power 106 FM.
The debate will focus on leadership issues which include matters of governance, a vision for the country, tackling corruption and economic development, among other areas.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Portia-vs-Andrew-tonight_10427205#ixzz1h6bWQ899
*********************
X-1
The final debate is here 12/20/2011 9pm. Portia vs Andrew. Who will win the debate is a significant question, since polls and anecdotal reasoning have made an association/link between the 'undecided voter' and their eventual vote relative to the percieved winner of the debate.
The media states that the debate will focus on: leadership issues which include matters of governance, a vision for the country, tackling corruption and economic development.
Before I offer an apriori conjecture of who will come out ahead using the stated topic, let me first delve into a couple of variables to support my conjecture:
Variable 1
Education vs Experience
Most people will agree that the best employees have both education, training and experience. Are there advantages education has over experience. Absolutely. Experience over education. Absolutely.
Education means knowledge and experience means you know what to do with that knowledge. So with both, you’re perfect. However, this is relative.
Research as in recent "Center for Creative Leadership study" indicate that only 10 percent of the knowledge is needed to become an effective manager is learned in the classroom, the other 90% comes from elsewhere including experience, personality, support structure, network etc.
Variable # 2
The Female Factor
Obviously this debate will include a male and a female. This dynamic brings into play slippery slope social issue.
a) Portia broaches the slippery slope if she comes off as too pushy and demanding
b) Andrew broaches the slippery slope if he is percieved as disrespectful or condescending.
Any slippage by either party will affect the perception of the winner in the general public's eye.
______________
Now, I proffer the following results apriori regarding the debate on the following topics using variable 1 and 2 as a basic for my analysis.
1. leadership issues-Winner Portia
As the education variable cancels each other.Andrew is not substantially more educated than Portia. Both possess degrees which validates that they have experienced and achieved the convention of education at the College level.
Experience and training will enable Portia to 'outwomanneuver' Andrew in this area and finish a nod ahead of Andrew.
2. Governance-Winner Portia
As the education variable cancels each other. Andrew is not substantially more educated than Portia. Both possess degrees which validates that they have experienced and achieved the convention of education at the College level.
Experience and training will enable Portia to 'outwomanneuver' Andrew in the area of governance and finish a nod ahead of Andrew.
3. vision for the country-Winner Andrew
Andrew will benefit from the youth variable and this is an essential component when discussing vision
4. Tackling corruption-Winner Tie
Both are vulnerable in the area, however if Portia is skillful she maybe able to benefit from the newness of JNIP vs Trifuga. However, Andrew should be equally skillful to rebutt.
5. Economic development-Winner Tie
Both should be able to regurgitate their Manifesto, which due to debate format contains a certain level of rhetorical reasoning and should facilitate statement which will be left up to party interest interpretation as oppose to real material process discussion.
Overall, Portia should get the nod over Andrew in this debate as experience teaches wisdom and she possesses the greater level of experience. The question then will be: Does this performance transcend into actual votes?
********************
12/21/2011 Post Debate Analysis
Nationwide gives debate to Holness but says Portia gave creditable performance
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
LAST night’s political leadership debate was scored as a win for Prime Minister Andrew Holness by Nationwide Radio journalists Cliff Hughes and Damion Blake, while their colleague Emily Crooks opted to reserve her judgement on a victor until this morning, adding that the debate was anticlimatic.
However, all three agreed that Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller gave a creditable performance, even as they pointed to weaknesses in some of her answers to questions on tough issues.
“It was a spirited debate,” Hughes said in his post-debate discussion on Nationwide Radio, which broadcast the highly anticipated debate live. However, he said Holness won based on his command of the stage and the issues.
“I think the opposition leader more than held her own tonight. She was obviously well prepared. She came there with her notes. But the weaknesses did come through from time to time,” added Hughes, one of Jamaica’s most respected journalists.
He gave as an example Simpson Miller’s answer to a question on changing the Westminster system of government, saying that it “was reduced to real puff”.
Simpson Miller, in response to the question posed by a member of the audience, said she thought it was time for Jamaica to change the system so that we can have our own Jamaican queen.
Hughes, in his analysis, said that Holness lost an opportunity to score points in his rebuttal.
Hughes and Blake also said that Simpson Miller showed a lack of understanding of how international agreements really work when she said
that a Government led by her would renegotiate the IMF, JPS and JDIP
contracts in two weeks. The verdict is still out on whether the much-touted leadership debate between Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller and Prime Minister Andrew Holness lived up to expectations.
Already, some commentators, including callers to radio programmes held after the debate and persons who attended the debate at the Faculty of Law at the Mona Campus of the University of the West Indies, are of the view that the showdown did not materialise.
Both Holness and Simpson Miller have also been accused of skirting some of the questions raised by journalists Franklin McKnight, Dionne Jackson-Miller, as well as from a select group of audience members.
In addition, there were very few instances in which either debater rigorously challenged the other’s position, as happened in the team debate, which featured young politicians from both parties as well as in the economic and financial debate between Finance Minister Audley Shaw.
However, all three gave her kudos for her response on the issue of homosexuals serving in the Cabinet.
Holness, to whom the question was posed, sought to sidestep it with a long answer. However, Simpson Miller said she would appoint people to her Cabinet based on their ability and would go as far as having the buggery law reviewed.
“One of the new things that came out was what I consider to be a substantial advancement of the PNP on the issue of homosexuality,” said Crooks. “For the first time I’ve heard a leader of the PNP saying 'I’m open to having people of whatever orientation depending on ability in my Cabinet and in fact I would have us look at the buggery law and ensure that people vote on their conscience in Parliament'.”
All three journalists, however, said they found the structure of the debate restrictive, as it did not allow the leaders enough time to answer questions fully.
“I think the Debates Commission is going to take a hit because the 60 minutes was awfully too limited for the leaders to go at it,” said Hughes. “You really needed 90 minutes, if not two hours to see who can stand up under the pressure, who can remain consistent, and to give them more time.”
He said that part of the difficulty was that the moderator, who is under instruction, had to keep on interrupting when Holness and Simpson Miller were not finished answering the questions posed to them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Nationwide-gives-debate-to-Holness-but-says-Portia-gave-creditable-performance#ixzz1hD0kFntS
************
X-1
The nod in a boring debate went to Ms. Portia Simpson Miller as predicted, mainly due to the experience factor.
1st Place: The Jamaica people for their participation via viewing and attention to this Leadership dabte.
2nd Place: Portia Simpson Miller
3rd Place: Andrew Holness
4th Place: The Debate Commission
The Prime Minister appeared timid, rudderless, evasive and contradictory for the 'Big Cat' thats in control. He did not 'tek it to Portia' like he does on the campaign trail.
In his opeing statement he declared that he is a post independence leader, but in response to a question he stated that Jamaica is not independent. Which is it Flippy or Floppy?
The Prime Minister was not able to slam dunk Ms Miller and could not live up to his hype. The PNP gained points from the debate while the JLP lost points. The bar was set too high for Prime Minister Holness and his inexperience was salient, his handlers did him a disservice. It appeared that over-confidence was a liability.
"Portia vs Andrew tonight!
Debates Commission says all set for leadership debate
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
THE Jamaica Debates Commission (JDC) says all is in place for tonight's leadership debate between Prime Minister Andrew Holness and Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller, the final before the December 29 general election.
The debate, which begins at 9:00 pm, will be held at the Faculty of Law at the University of the West Indies, Mona before a studio audience of approximately 200 people made up of guests of the political parties, guests of the commission and the University of the West Indies.
"A dress rehearsal for the event was held early on Monday where television production, protocol, security and operational areas were checked and finalised," the JDC said yesterday.
For tonight's debate, there will be two questioners — Dionne Jackson-Miller of RJR and Franklin McKnight of IRIE FM/ZIP FM and the Northcoast Times. In place of a third questioner, independent members of the audience will be allowed to pose one in every three questions. The moderator is Dervan Malcolm of Power 106 FM.
The debate will focus on leadership issues which include matters of governance, a vision for the country, tackling corruption and economic development, among other areas.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Portia-vs-Andrew-tonight_10427205#ixzz1h6bWQ899
*********************
X-1
The final debate is here 12/20/2011 9pm. Portia vs Andrew. Who will win the debate is a significant question, since polls and anecdotal reasoning have made an association/link between the 'undecided voter' and their eventual vote relative to the percieved winner of the debate.
The media states that the debate will focus on: leadership issues which include matters of governance, a vision for the country, tackling corruption and economic development.
Before I offer an apriori conjecture of who will come out ahead using the stated topic, let me first delve into a couple of variables to support my conjecture:
Variable 1
Education vs Experience
Most people will agree that the best employees have both education, training and experience. Are there advantages education has over experience. Absolutely. Experience over education. Absolutely.
Education means knowledge and experience means you know what to do with that knowledge. So with both, you’re perfect. However, this is relative.
Research as in recent "Center for Creative Leadership study" indicate that only 10 percent of the knowledge is needed to become an effective manager is learned in the classroom, the other 90% comes from elsewhere including experience, personality, support structure, network etc.
Variable # 2
The Female Factor
Obviously this debate will include a male and a female. This dynamic brings into play slippery slope social issue.
a) Portia broaches the slippery slope if she comes off as too pushy and demanding
b) Andrew broaches the slippery slope if he is percieved as disrespectful or condescending.
Any slippage by either party will affect the perception of the winner in the general public's eye.
______________
Now, I proffer the following results apriori regarding the debate on the following topics using variable 1 and 2 as a basic for my analysis.
1. leadership issues-Winner Portia
As the education variable cancels each other.Andrew is not substantially more educated than Portia. Both possess degrees which validates that they have experienced and achieved the convention of education at the College level.
Experience and training will enable Portia to 'outwomanneuver' Andrew in this area and finish a nod ahead of Andrew.
2. Governance-Winner Portia
As the education variable cancels each other. Andrew is not substantially more educated than Portia. Both possess degrees which validates that they have experienced and achieved the convention of education at the College level.
Experience and training will enable Portia to 'outwomanneuver' Andrew in the area of governance and finish a nod ahead of Andrew.
3. vision for the country-Winner Andrew
Andrew will benefit from the youth variable and this is an essential component when discussing vision
4. Tackling corruption-Winner Tie
Both are vulnerable in the area, however if Portia is skillful she maybe able to benefit from the newness of JNIP vs Trifuga. However, Andrew should be equally skillful to rebutt.
5. Economic development-Winner Tie
Both should be able to regurgitate their Manifesto, which due to debate format contains a certain level of rhetorical reasoning and should facilitate statement which will be left up to party interest interpretation as oppose to real material process discussion.
Overall, Portia should get the nod over Andrew in this debate as experience teaches wisdom and she possesses the greater level of experience. The question then will be: Does this performance transcend into actual votes?
********************
12/21/2011 Post Debate Analysis
Nationwide gives debate to Holness but says Portia gave creditable performance
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
LAST night’s political leadership debate was scored as a win for Prime Minister Andrew Holness by Nationwide Radio journalists Cliff Hughes and Damion Blake, while their colleague Emily Crooks opted to reserve her judgement on a victor until this morning, adding that the debate was anticlimatic.
However, all three agreed that Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller gave a creditable performance, even as they pointed to weaknesses in some of her answers to questions on tough issues.
“It was a spirited debate,” Hughes said in his post-debate discussion on Nationwide Radio, which broadcast the highly anticipated debate live. However, he said Holness won based on his command of the stage and the issues.
“I think the opposition leader more than held her own tonight. She was obviously well prepared. She came there with her notes. But the weaknesses did come through from time to time,” added Hughes, one of Jamaica’s most respected journalists.
He gave as an example Simpson Miller’s answer to a question on changing the Westminster system of government, saying that it “was reduced to real puff”.
Simpson Miller, in response to the question posed by a member of the audience, said she thought it was time for Jamaica to change the system so that we can have our own Jamaican queen.
Hughes, in his analysis, said that Holness lost an opportunity to score points in his rebuttal.
Hughes and Blake also said that Simpson Miller showed a lack of understanding of how international agreements really work when she said
that a Government led by her would renegotiate the IMF, JPS and JDIP
contracts in two weeks. The verdict is still out on whether the much-touted leadership debate between Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller and Prime Minister Andrew Holness lived up to expectations.
Already, some commentators, including callers to radio programmes held after the debate and persons who attended the debate at the Faculty of Law at the Mona Campus of the University of the West Indies, are of the view that the showdown did not materialise.
Both Holness and Simpson Miller have also been accused of skirting some of the questions raised by journalists Franklin McKnight, Dionne Jackson-Miller, as well as from a select group of audience members.
In addition, there were very few instances in which either debater rigorously challenged the other’s position, as happened in the team debate, which featured young politicians from both parties as well as in the economic and financial debate between Finance Minister Audley Shaw.
However, all three gave her kudos for her response on the issue of homosexuals serving in the Cabinet.
Holness, to whom the question was posed, sought to sidestep it with a long answer. However, Simpson Miller said she would appoint people to her Cabinet based on their ability and would go as far as having the buggery law reviewed.
“One of the new things that came out was what I consider to be a substantial advancement of the PNP on the issue of homosexuality,” said Crooks. “For the first time I’ve heard a leader of the PNP saying 'I’m open to having people of whatever orientation depending on ability in my Cabinet and in fact I would have us look at the buggery law and ensure that people vote on their conscience in Parliament'.”
All three journalists, however, said they found the structure of the debate restrictive, as it did not allow the leaders enough time to answer questions fully.
“I think the Debates Commission is going to take a hit because the 60 minutes was awfully too limited for the leaders to go at it,” said Hughes. “You really needed 90 minutes, if not two hours to see who can stand up under the pressure, who can remain consistent, and to give them more time.”
He said that part of the difficulty was that the moderator, who is under instruction, had to keep on interrupting when Holness and Simpson Miller were not finished answering the questions posed to them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Nationwide-gives-debate-to-Holness-but-says-Portia-gave-creditable-performance#ixzz1hD0kFntS
************
X-1
The nod in a boring debate went to Ms. Portia Simpson Miller as predicted, mainly due to the experience factor.
1st Place: The Jamaica people for their participation via viewing and attention to this Leadership dabte.
2nd Place: Portia Simpson Miller
3rd Place: Andrew Holness
4th Place: The Debate Commission
The Prime Minister appeared timid, rudderless, evasive and contradictory for the 'Big Cat' thats in control. He did not 'tek it to Portia' like he does on the campaign trail.
In his opeing statement he declared that he is a post independence leader, but in response to a question he stated that Jamaica is not independent. Which is it Flippy or Floppy?
The Prime Minister was not able to slam dunk Ms Miller and could not live up to his hype. The PNP gained points from the debate while the JLP lost points. The bar was set too high for Prime Minister Holness and his inexperience was salient, his handlers did him a disservice. It appeared that over-confidence was a liability.
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