Attitudinal Polling vs Opinion Polling

Attitudinal Polling Method
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001

"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.

The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"



___________________________________

2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research

___________________________________


2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version


Feb 6th, 2011

Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project

Author X-1

I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.

This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.


Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)


Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.

The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.


The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure

The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.

Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.


“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)


Pureness Parameters


JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.

PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.

Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.

Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007

Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001

Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.

Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.

Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.


Operational Variables:

These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.


Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.

Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.

Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).

Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.


Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.

Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.


Scaling/Measurement

How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.



Re-inforcement of Theory

This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.



Survey Data Inferential Findings

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.

(Likert Scaling)

http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php

1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b
published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5

Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5








2. Absenteeism in Parliament
published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5








3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009

Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter

Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5

Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5




4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:



Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5



5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:



Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5







6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments

After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010

THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.

Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments


Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html


Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp


-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5



10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5




“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm

Attitudinal Survey Data

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.




Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:

Jlp = +1

Pnp = +5

Nnc = -1


Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1

-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%



(Survey using Proxy data)


Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…


11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.


Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0



11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%


.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10



11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%

.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10



Chart # 2Scale 10=100

..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10



• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.

_______________________________


Opinion Polling Method

"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com


Thursday, November 10, 2011


ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.

The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.



The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.

Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.

The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.

The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.

The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.

In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.

In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.

When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.

The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.



Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv

Comments:

"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"

***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***


British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!

***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .


Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN

Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa

__________________________________

STILL OFF COURSE
Published: Tuesday | November 22, 2011 12 Comments

Job hunters sit a test at a government agency. FILE

Jamaicans stay wary as jobs remain most troubling concern

Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
Just under half of the people who voted for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the 2007 general election believe the Government has steered the ship of state in the wrong direction.

The vast majority of people have formed this opinion based on the rising unemployment level.

In the meantime, a whopping 80 per cent of the people who voted for the People's National Party (PNP) agree that the country needs to change economic course fast, with the shortage of jobs also being cited as their main reason for concern.

But over the past month, since the swearing in of Andrew Holness as prime minister, there has been a slight decrease in the number of people who believe the country is headed downhill fast.

The latest Gleaner-commiss-ioned Bill Johnson poll has found that little more than six in every 10 Jamaicans (63 per cent) think the country is moving in the wrong direction.

That is a slight improvement from the 66 per cent recorded in October but within the poll's statistical margin of error, which is plus or minus four per cent.

Meanwhile, more than half of the country believes the shortage of jobs is the most pressing problem facing Jamaica at this time.

That represents a jump of 17 per cent in the number of people who see unemployment as the major problem facing the country when the poll was conducted early October.

The latest Gleaner-Johnson poll - conducted among 1,008 respondents from November 5 to 6 and November 12 in 84 communities across the island - found that only 18 per cent of Jamaicans believe the country is moving in the right direction, while 19 per cent said they did not know.

Crime second-major concern

Concerns about crime have long dominated local opinion polls when people were asked about the most pressing problem facing the country. Those concerns reached a high of 74 per cent of Jamaicans who saw this as the country's major problem in June 2008.

But that started to change in June of this year when the worldwide recession and the subsequent cuts in thousands of jobs moved unemployment to the top of the list.

Since then, with major crimes on the decline, unemployment has topped the last three Gleaner-commissioned Johnson polls to the point where, this time around, twice as many people see the shortage of jobs as the most pressing problem facing the country in comparison to those who place crime in that position.

"We still have some way to go, but I am feeling particularly vindicated and satisfied that the populace is recognising and acknowledging the efforts of the Ministry of National Security in taking back Jamaica from the clutches of the criminals," said Senator Dwight Nelson, minister of national security, in reaction to news that unemployment has overtaken crime as the country's number-one concern.

"The Government had inherited a runaway crime rate when it assumed office just over four years ago. This had resulted in polls over the years highlighting crime as the most serious concern among Jamaicans; but this is no longer so according to the findings of recent polls … ," added Nelson.

Even when the numbers are moved from the national level to the individual communities, eight in every 10 Jamaicans see unemployment as the major problem in their area.

The Government and the Opposition have been at loggerheads for some time over the number of Jamaicans to have lost their jobs since the global recession started.

The Opposition claims that, by its figures, just under 100,000 people have lost their jobs, while the Government says that figure is highly inflated.

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica, which is the official agency to publish unemployment numbers, has delayed the publication because it said it was working on the national census