The ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid pollsters and respective news media will produce surveys and customer friendly stories consistent with ‘gameological’ theory such as:
“The Water Melon or Horse pon Track Polling Effect”
Scholars and the polling organization have denied the allegations, but some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon or horse pon track effect " (this refers to the expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side, or punters/betting public gravitate to horse hyperbility)".
This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007 and will be employed in the 2011/12 general election.
In short order (post today's date of November 5, 2011), one will see Pollsters and media houses(not scientific researchers) like Don Anderson, Mark 'Wiggy' Wignal? etal with Polling and 'respective political pursuation' Headlines which may include political user friendly alliance sentiments such as:
"JLP erases PNP lead in the polls",or
“Holness the most preferred leader”or
"Holness Leads Portia in Election Nod"or
“JLP takes lead over PNP by 4 points in the Election Polls”.or
"JLP and PNP in statistical deadheat"
Etc, etc…..
The strategy works like this:
Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 2% Third and others Parties equals 77%. Dat leaves 23% of which 12% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 12 percentage points.
So the game is played like this:
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One horse dey pon de track sou im consider that im hav home field advantage, but coz im pop dun inna previous races, opposition horse jump out to a early lead before the race begins.
Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shut an company.
So because this ya race so crucial teamie use all kinda different method/bandooloo fe win de race. For example, some a juck wit battery(expediency/resignation etc), some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo-Grand Master. However, because the lead so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Don Anderson High power Opinion Survey PR team, not Scientific Reseachers).
Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1 (PNP), but Horse # 2 (JLP) figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Don Anderson Polls come in.
(Opinion survey) will try and convince 'proportional' 12% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘gameology theory of momentum and game change bounce'.
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Admittedly, a very good mass behavioral progamming strategy; wherein, the method of "he who controls the circumference of knowledge controls the scope of behavior" is employed as an electioneering tactic.
This stretegy has been successful in various places and if executed competently it could very well work here against the natural trends.
However, scientific research indicate that if the opposition PNP brings a remotely competent and offsetting electioneering strategy using the general population natural Attitudinal variable, then this will ensure their return to power.
Start your engines or horse...the race is on....
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X-1
Ah bwoy, what did I just say.....
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"JLP Ahead! - Ruling party surges in RJR/TVJ polls
BY CONRAD HAMILTON Observer senior reporter hamiltonc@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANDREW Holness' ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has nosed ahead of the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the latest opinion polls, setting off ringing bells and back-slapping among Labourites.
The RJR/TVJ Boxill poll unveiled late evening yesterday said the ruling party now has a 2.5 percentage point lead over Portia Simpson Miller's PNP.
The public opinion survey was conducted by University of the West Indies Professor Ian Boxill, who said last night the JLP in just six months (since his last poll) had managed to reverse the PNP's lead to what appears to be a statistical dead heat.
Some 35.2 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP while 32.7 per cent said they would throw their support behind the PNP. Another 13.5 per cent said they were undecided and 13.2 per cent said they would not be voting.
The results are based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons, 18 years and over and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent. The poll was conducted between October 28 and November 3 this year and only targeted persons who have been enumerated.
The sample was equally divided between males and females and was conducted in 160 communities in all parishes. It was the first such poll carried out since Holness emerged as prime minister and undisputed leader of the JLP.
The findings contrast sharply to the most recent polls conducted by Boxill. In the July 2010 poll when asked who they would vote for if an election were called today, 33 per cent of the respondents said the PNP and 28 per cent said the JLP.
In a similar exercise conducted in April of this year, 24 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the JLP and 36 per cent for the PNP.
In addition to unearthing information about the standings of the political parties, Boxill in his latest poll was able to conclude that most Jamaicans are in favour of an early election.
When contacted for a comment on the poll results, JLP General Secretary Senator Aundre Franklin said he was not prepared to speak on the matters and indicated that all questions relating to the poll would be answered at a press conference scheduled for Friday morning.
The PNP's Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson was also cautious as he said he had heard of the results but had not been able to review them.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJvEFHEv
Comments:
"Rick Edwards
11/10/2011
This is a statistical dead heat, but the momentum of the JLP is telling. Either party can obviously win this election if they are able to articulate a vision that will swing uncommitted voters to their side. The PNP need to take heed, their message has not gained any traction, and AH cannot rely on youth and being more articulate than PSM to take this home"
***well said Mr. Edwards (X-1)***
British Deportee
11/10/2011
I'm a little surprised that Anthony had touched on mathematic skills and did not call attention to the 5.4% that is missing from Boxill's findings. Hopefully Holness and his crew won't pop any champagne over this disclosure because that's usually what happens when new faces are brought to the horizon. In all honestly though, I actually thought that the figure would've been closer to double digits, not a mere 2-1/2%. Peace!
***well said British Deportee (X-1)*** 35.2+ 32.7+ 13.5+ 13.2= 94.6 (5.4) I guess Mr. Boxill is mistakenly calling this his margin or error (X-1) .
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dK0VYMDN
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/JLP-Ahead----Ruling-party-surges-in-RJR-TVJ-polls_10134728#ixzz1dJyqHOMa
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Cost of living pressure to ease
Thursday, November 10, 2011
THE cost of living pressure is likely to continue to ease during the December 2011 quarter, with inflation projected to be in the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent, while economic growth could accelerate during the period.
Presenting the latest Quarterly Monetary Policy Report, for the period ending September 30, Governor of the Bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter, said that this forecast is “predicated on low imported inflation, a continued decline in inflation expectations and stable domestic capacity conditions.”
He stated that, given this forecast, the bank expects that for the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2012, inflation will be within the target range of 6.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent.
“The outlook for inflation for both the December quarter and the fiscal year has incorporated a projection for the seasonal increase in demand pressure in the foreign exchange market. This should mainly reflect the usual lower net private capital inflows,” he explained.
He further noted that the demand for foreign exchange to facilitate current account transactions should abate given the expected moderation in commodity price increases and the seasonal increase in tourism flows.
“In this context, the bank will intervene, as necessary, to smooth supplies in the market and ensure orderly movement in the exchange rate. However, gross reserves will remain comfortably above the international benchmark of 12 weeks coverage of projected imports of goods and services,” he said.
With respect to the country’s economic performance during the review quarter, Wynter stated that the bank’s estimates indicate that there was continued real economic growth in the review quarter, “albeit at a slower pace than the two previous quarters”.
He said that the economy is estimated to have grown 0.0 per cent to 1.0 per cent, relative to average quarterly growth of 1.8 per cent for the first half of the calendar year.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Cost-of-living-pressure-to-ease#ixzz1dJwDv73U
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The jobs are coming, says Tufton
BY LUKE DOUGLAS Observer senior reporter douglasl@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, November 10, 2011
INTERNATIONAL finance, information and communications technology (ICT), tourism and limestone mining are four of the areas in which jobs will be created in Jamaica over the next few years, according to Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce Dr Christopher Tufton.
Dr Tufton, speaking at a forum staged by the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) young professional group Generation 2000 at the University of the West Indies on Tuesday evening, repeated an earlier announcement that 11,000 jobs in the ICT sector could be doubled over the next three years.
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with
TUFTON… we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with 1/1
He said that he is expected to announce in a few weeks that a company with a 'big, big name' will be investing in Jamaica which will create 'quite a few thousand jobs', but did not say if it is involved in ICT sector.
The minister, meanwhile, defended the Government's record of managing the economy throughout the global recession and creating the environment for businesses to succeed.
"Tourism is going to continue to be a major player," Dr Tufton said, noting that the sector needed an additional 20,000 rooms over the next few years to bring the number of rooms in the sector to 50,000.
"Limestone is going to replace bauxite as the next big mining operation in Jamaica because we have so much of it," the minister said, noting that Jamaica has 98 per cent pure limestone which is in high demand.
On international finance, Dr Tufton said a board was recently appointed to manage the sector and that laws were being modernised to position Jamaica to compete with countries such as the Cayman Islands and The Bahamas in providing services for large companies at more competitive rates.
The minister also lauded the performance of the Government led by former Prime Minister Bruce Golding in bringing down inflation and interest rates, stabilising the Jamaican dollar, and managing the economy throughout the global recession.
He urged the students to reject the Opposition People's National Party in the next election, saying they had no plans for job creation.
"My plans are not a puss in a bag; we are yet to see what the PNP is coming with," he said.
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/The-jobs-are-coming--says-Tufton_10132998#ixzz1dJwYS3GB
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Heat is on - Even-steven as to which party would do the better job of running the country
Published: Saturday | November 19, 2011 0 Comments
Nomination day 2007. - File1 2 >
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
JAMAICANS RATE the two major political parties evenly when it comes to which one would do the better job of governing the country at this time. With the youthful Andrew Holness leading a team which includes the veteran Pearnel Charles, Mike Henry and Dr Ken Baugh, and the veteran Portia Simpson Miller leading a team which includes the young Lisa Hanna, Peter Bunting and Mark Golding, it appears the electorate is not sold on either of the two parties.
Approaching the general election finish line, the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) and the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are in a dead heat as they try to convince voters that either would be better at solving the myriad problems facing the country.
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson national public opinion poll has found that the JLP and the PNP captured 39 per cent each when Jamaicans were asked which of the two major political parties would do a better job of running the country. Twenty-two per cent of the respondents were undecided.
The poll was conducted between November 5 and 6 and November 12 with 1,008 respondents in 84 communities islandwide with a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
Good news for JLP
While the parties are deadlocked in the latest poll, the numbers reflect better news for the JLP which is making up ground while the PNP is slipping. At 39 per cent, the JLP is recording its highest endorsement since just before the 2007 general election when 41 per cent of Jamaicans said it would do a better job of managing the affairs of the country. Since then, in four polls, the governing party has consistently trailed the PNP as the party most Jamaicans think would be the better manager of the affairs of the State.
When Jamaicans were asked this question by the Johnson researchers in June 2011, 32 per cent of Jamaicans said the JLP would do the better job while 43 per cent said the PNP.
This means that the JLP has gained seven percentage points in the past five months while the PNP has lost four percentage points.
The improved performance of the JLP comes despite the stalled International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, high unemployment and rising poverty. But the inflation rate has been moderate, the foreign-exchange market stable and interest rates at their lowest levels for some time.
But whichever party forms the next government, it must deal with the IMF muddle, address the debt problem which stood at more than J$1.6 trillion at the end of August, reform the public sector and reduce its drag on the country's purse, overhaul the tax system and address the civil-service pension issue.
Cutting spending and increasing the country's earnings will be non-negotiable for the next government and either party will have the unenviable task of imposing unpopular measures or risk watching the economy collapse
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Holness for captain
Published: Friday | November 18, 2011 0 Comments
Andrew Holness
by Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
More Jamaicans believe Andrew would do better than Simpson Miller in heading Government
Prime Minister Andrew Holness has an eight percentage point lead over Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller as the person Jamaicans believe would do a better job of leading the Government at this time.But with 22 per cent of Jamaicans undecided about which of the two leaders would do the better job, a mouth-watering contest is in the making as the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People's National Party (PNP) attempt to sell the virtues of their respective leaders in the run-up to the next general election.
The expected national leadership debate, if it can be agreed, could also be pivotal in helping the undecided to come to a position.
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X-1:
When mi lok inna mi Crystal Blog, I see the blogs results apriopri. Bwoys this polling thing is very predictable.....
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Too close to call - JLP continues to close gap on PNP but Holness bounce begins to taper off
Published: Sunday | November 20, 2011 0 Comments
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is continuing to close the gap on the People's National Party (PNP) in the race to form the next government, but Labourites celebrating at the National Arena today should keep the champagne on ice as the electoral victory expected with the change in leadership of the party might prove elusive.
While the PNP's lead over the JLP has narrowed to four percentage points from 10 six months ago, the Labourites' forward march, which started in October with news that Andrew Holness would be replacing Bruce Golding, has stalled, and instead, the party has lost some ground over the past month.
But the PNP has also lost ground, leaving the two parties in a statistical dead heat as to which will get the nod to form the Government after Jamaicans next vote in a general election.
The JLP enjoyed a huge boost in popularity just over one month ago when young Holness was selected to replace the politically toxic Golding, who announced that he was stepping down as prime minister and party leader.
The coronation of 'Prince Andrew' is scheduled for today when he will be elected unopposed to replace Golding as the JLP leader, and with the bounce in the polls from his selection, Labourites have been talking about winning as many as 43 of the 63 seats which will be up for grabs in the next general election.
The confidence of the JLP supporters was boosted last month when a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll found that the party had narrowed the gap on the PNP from 18 percentage points in April 2010 to six percentage points in October. But when the Johnson team returned to the streets on November 5, 6 and 12, the Holness bounce had flattened out, even though the party continues to close the gap on the PNP.
latest findings
The latest poll has found that if the general election is called now, despite the candidates in place, 29 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP while 32 per cent would vote for the PNP. With the poll having a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, either Holness or Portia Simpson Miller could be asked to form the Government when the dust settles after the election.
To ensure victory, both parties will have to go after the 13 per cent of respondents who say they are undecided, or the 23 per cent, who, despite the anticipated election, still say they will not vote.
With Holness expected to announce the election date anytime now - possibly today - the latest Johnson poll, though still good news for the JLP, could put the brakes on the exuberance of the Labourites, who had all but started victory celebrations since the October Johnson poll.
In October, the poll found that with the Holness bounce, 31 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the JLP if elections were called then, while 37 per cent said they would vote for the PNP. While still behind the PNP, the JLP had gained six percentage points since June while the PNP had gained two, and the gap had closed from 10 percentage points to six.
This time around, in just over one month, the JLP has lost two percentage points (31 per cent to 29 per cent), while the PNP has lost five percentage points (37 per cent to 32 per cent).
The ranks of the undecided moved up from 10 per cent to 13 per cent in the past month, while Jamaicans who say they will not vote remained almost unchanged, at 22 per cent.
arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com
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