PM Golding Resigns

Golding's resignation announcement goes viral
Published: Tuesday | September 27, 2011 12 Comments

News of Bruce Golding's pending resignation as Jamaica Labour Party leader and prime minister of Jamaica has resonated across the world like wildfire.

Media networks in every part of the world have been broadcasting the news ever since it broke Sunday morning.

A search of the World Wide Web showed international media sites like BBC, The Washington Post, The Voice of America, Bloomberg, Stabroek News, The Guardian, The New York Times, Forbes, Huffington Post, Caribbean Media Corporation, Word Press, Bahamas Press, The Voice, Fox News, Al Jazeera, Globe and Mail, Taiwan News, Virgin Islands News, MSNBC, ABC, Miami Herald, Jerusalem Post, CBS, among others, highlighting the surprising announcement.

Many have linked the move to the Christopher 'Dudus' Coke extradition saga.

"Veteran leader damaged Labour Party's standing by opposing extradition of drug lord Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to the US," The Guardian states.

The Washington Post reports, "Jamaica's governing party announced Sunday that Prime Minister Bruce Golding will step down as leader in the coming weeks, possibly averting a rebellion from ruling party members that could have led to his ouster."

'Jamaica's beleaguered leader to step down' headlines The New York Times.

"Bruce Golding to step down amid criticism of his role in extradition to the US of drug lord Christopher 'Dudus' Coke," reads Al Jazeera.

________________


It appears that X-1 is spot-on in reference to his research data's inferential analysis in regards to the JLP''s Bruce Golding negative trending pattern. Will this move or pending move to be materialized be a "Game Changer"? Yes and No, Why?

There exists a thousand words between the verbal and written. Scientifically, this move (Golding Resignation) will not have a general election material effect, but rather a "spot in the pond effect" A bounce will occur, but the trending negative pattern will hold true. "Game Changer" will be "Regime Changer" in the end, as the Central Tendency illustrated in Chart 1 and 2 were not predicated solely on any politicians individual value, but rather attitudinal value of the masses seen through the lens of scientific methodology.

*******************

“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm

Attitudinal Survey Data

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.




Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:

Jlp = +1

Pnp = +5

Nnc = -1


Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1

-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
..................0....... (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”.......

******************

11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%


.............*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10



11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%

............................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10



Chart # 2
Scale 10=100

................. (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10



• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.

--------------


The challenges facing 'Prince Andrew'
Claude Robinson


Sunday, October 09, 2011

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/The-challenges-facing--Prince-Andrew-_9861496


Pollsters Don Anderson for CVM-TV and Bill Johnson for the Gleaner surveyed the political preferences and voting intentions of the electorate between September 30 and October 1 just after Mr Golding announced he would resign as JLP leader and prime minister.


The Anderson-CVM poll found that 39 per cent would vote PNP under Mrs Simpson Miller and 35 per cent would vote for the JLP under Mr Holness.


This is a huge turnaround from the Anderson July 2011 poll which saw the PNP president with a virtually unassailable 23-point lead over Mr Golding, polling 38 per cent support compared to 15 per cent for the prime minister, mortally wounded by his mishandling of the US request for the extradition of Christopher 'Dudus' Coke, the reputed leader of the deadly Shower Posse.

The Johnson-Gleaner poll found that 44 per cent of Jamaicans would select the PNP president as prime minister while 40 per cent would choose the JLP leader-designate.

The previous Gleaner-commissioned poll in May and June of this year reported that 42 per cent of Jamaicans said Mrs Simpson Miller would do a better job as prime minister while 31 per cent of the respondents favoured Mr Golding; hence Mr Holness has cut an 11 per cent lead to just four.

Mrs Simpson Miller and the PNP can be expected to learn from the strong bump that Mr Holness has given the JLP and we await their reaction.

The data indicate that the decision of deputy leaders Audley Shaw and Dr Christopher Tufton, deputy chairman Bobby Montague and former chairman Dr Ken Baugh to scuttle their prime ministerial ambitions and coalesce around Mr Holness was in keeping with popular sentiment and spares the party a potentially nasty and divisive fight on the floor of annual conference, given the JLP's history of splitting into 'gangs' over leadership disagreements.

But while the consensus around Mr Holness was a necessary condition for party unity, the jury is still out as to whether it will be sufficient to secure a second term for the JLP.

For starters, the Johnson poll has found that almost seven in every 10 Jamaicans (66 per cent) believe the Golding administration was headed in the wrong direction with the economy.

As the Gleaner reported, this is almost unchanged from the 68 per cent who said the country was on the wrong path when Johnson posed the same question in June; but it is much better than the record 82 per cent disapproval captured in April 2010 at the height of the 'Dudus' controversy.

So the question that voters will have to decide is whether the JLP under Mr Holness's leadership will be sufficiently different from Mr Golding's to get the country back on track, or whether to give back the reins of power to Mrs Simpson Miller and the PNP.

The challenges are enormous: On the economic side, the biggest one is uncertainty surrounding the International Monetary Fund agreement.

For nearly a year the country has no clear idea about the status of the performance targets and the implications for the Government's ability to get access to funds under the agreement. Government spokesmen only say that the two sides are talking and that the situation is delicate.

Further, the JLP administration has failed to create jobs to compensate for those lost in the 2008-2009 recession; the number of people living in poverty is on the rise; the trade deficit is unsustainable; and government revenue is much lower than projected.

Signals from the IMF and global markets point to more weakening of the global economy; this will have adverse consequences for remittances, tourism, alumina exports and foreign direct investments.

Mr Holness seems to understand the challenge: "Whatever we draw as lines of separation, we want to stay together as we are in this boat together... and we can't rock this boat too much... Capsizing is not a very far-off possibility, and we must put that in this mix, and we must recognise that," he said at the press conference when he was endorsed by his parliamentary colleagues.

He promised sobriety, equity, efficiency and continuity as the main themes of his leadership. The first three are excellent values that should be pursued as he seeks to build on the consensus around his remarkable achievement at such a tender age. Clearly, the people and his colleagues believe he possesses attributes they are seeking at this time.

But Mr Holness may want to re-think continuity. The same voters who say they like him also say they do not like the policies that have been pursued by the administration that he helped to shape over the past four years.

The poll numbers and just the demands of good governance say there should be discontinuity from the politics that led to the 'Dudus-Manatt' debacle which cost the country much in terms of human lives (at least 73 in Tivoli), economic and social dislocation and international reputation.

As he waits for Mr Golding to hand over, Mr Holness would be well advised to demonstrate to the country that he has the temperament and the political savvy to do more than maintain party unity around a group of men and women notorious for squabbling.

More importantly, he must forge consensus around the national challenges and he must do so at a time when he will be under unrelenting scrutiny: Will he retain as JLP candidates persons who are under major investigation? James Robertson and Joseph Hibbert come to mind. Will he seek to work with independent and opposition sectors or spend the time shoring up the JLP base?

These signals, over the next few weeks, could establish new markers for the next election which, I believe, will be sooner rather than later.

kcr@cwjamaica.com

--------------------


"The Anderson-CVM poll found that 39 per cent would vote PNP under Mrs Simpson Miller and 35 per cent would vote for the JLP under Mr Holness"

X-1 research continues to enjoy a level of validation by the recognised opinion polling community. Again, the most important indicator is where the JLP falls in reference to the point of Central Tendency (CT). Holness ascension provide a bounce, but the necessary or critical processes to achieve a reversal in the negative trending pattern relative to CT is beyond Holness or his Party's level of commitment or available strategic initiatives available between now and General Election. Time and Strategy is not on his side.

------------

"Portia vs Andrew — the non-surprise of the decade
CHRIS BURNS

Monday, October 10, 2011

In politics, as in life, we should be careful what we wish for, because we might just get it. The preceding caveat is important because sometimes not only do we end up with more than we bargained for, but we could also find ourselves in a bigger predicament trying to determine what exactly to do with the very thing we wished for………"

Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/columns/Portia-vs-Andrew---the-non-surprise-of-the-decade_9862007#ixzz1aQFAHeZ5
-----------------

Prime Minister Elect Mr. Holness will be caught between a rock and a very hard place.

1. Rock: Call election early and capitalize on bounce euphoria (very risky). X-1's observation: Emotions cannot overcome Attitudinal. Its a process and time and experience does not allow for the development of that process.

2. Very Hard Place: Wait a year + and the Prime Minister Elect Holness inexperience will become so obvious that implosion will occur and the oppostion will exploit continuously.

Prepare yourself to validate X-1 Attitudinal Research Findings in Chart 3. Game Changer will be Regime Changer.