Jamaica Election 2012 Attitudinal Polling

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001

"The fMRI brain scans showed certain patterns of human brain activity sparked by thinking about physical objects, such as a horse or a house. Researchers also used the brain scans to identify brain activity shared by words related to certain topics — thinking about "eye" or "foot" showed patterns similar to those of other words related to body parts.

The basic idea is that whatever subject is on someone's mind — not just topics or concepts, but also emotions, plans or socially oriented thoughts — is ultimately reflected in the pattern of activity across all areas of his or her brain," said Matthew Botvinick, a psychologist at Princeton University's Neuroscience Institute"



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2012 Jamaican Election Attitudinal Research

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2012 Jamaica Election Stone Polling Methodology Version


Feb 6th, 2011

Jamaica 2012 Election Attitudinal Research Project

Author X-1

I often review and sometimes conduct my own research utilizing operationalized Apollonian simulation methodology as a signature style. My usual focus oftentimes evolves among the following: theoretical methodological construct, parsimony, harmoniousness of strategy, and scaling. My latest project is the pending Jamaican Election estimated to occur within the 18 months and the attitudes of individual regarding the parties involved.

This is project is being delivered through a ‘challenging blog format’ subject to censor at every stage; however, due to viability of blog rebounding it is always an option to reinvent in another forum or format, so censoring is but an inconvenient blogging headache.


Method: “Based on a choice of facts”-(Poincare)


Why is ‘method’ so critical? Because, every second there are scores of things occurring in our environment, moving at varying levels and degrees. i.e. try to use your 5 senses and notice everything occurring around you in the next 15 minutes, virtually impossible. This is why method is critical. Method is a devised strategy of observation to create some order to study occurrences. In essence, we sieve the data to determine which facts are more important. In this area Poincare, gives us a guide: 1) The more general a fact, the more precious its applicability, 2) Choose simplicity, the more simple the more likely of reoccurrence (replicability), 3) Look at extremes, both ends of the spectrum, 4) Look for exceptions and 5) Choose facts that are harmonious in nature.

The crux of my methodology will be achieving harmony through method. i.e. how does the facts fit together logically and can they be replicated.


The Scientific Method: This refers to the observation process/procedure

The following represents this research study scientific construct method: Theory→logical deduction→paradigm→hypothesis→method→facts observed→scaling/measurement→empirical generalization/findings.

Theory: If this research can define the case of a ‘pure voter’ in the following working universal spheres (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc), this will set the foundation for harmony within the theoretical methodology.


“In chemistry or in physics there is often no problem of finding [the pure case]. When the chemist wants to establish a proposition about sulphur he can use any lump of chemically pure sulphur (provided its crystalline form is irrelevant to the experiment) and treat it as a true and pure representative of sulphur. If a social scientist wants to study the Jamaican voter, it would simplify research enormously if he could find the pure voter, the one person who would be the representative of all Jamaican voters, so that all that was necessary would be to ask him or watch his behavior” –(Phantomesearcher, 2007)


Pureness Parameters


JLP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes=conservative politically, support pro-capitalistic business theories, generally against increased minimum wages, people should know there place mentality, generally Eurocentric, authoritarian traditionalist mentality.

PNP Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Liberal politically, support union and workers rights, pro business cooperative mentality, generally supports frequent increase minimum wage increase, fight for your right mentality, generally Afrocentric, authoritarian new world mentality.

Neutral Pure Voter: Attitudinal Attributes: Change, change, change mentality and a hybrid of the first two Pure Voters attributes.

Logical Deduction: Operationalized imperative paradigm
Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties JLP and PNP account for 61% of the electorate (party die hearts) 30.5% respectively. 39% Neutral. (Jamaica Electoral Office, 2007

Hypothesis: If X, then Y. If virtual factual imperatives can be accurately defined; then, ‘stimuli’- (as in responses to occurrences represented by newspaper articles and blog responses) can serve as a logical attitudinal measure; which through simulated parsimonious harmony can be a predictor of generalized future voting behavior.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44361055/ns/technology_and_science-innovation/t/brain-reading-devices-could-kill-keyboard/?gt1=43001

Method: Apply attitudinal ordinal scaling to each selected article which possesses a national general relevance sentiment and score objectively the most appropriate rating, using an Affect Theory Model.

Empirical Generalization/Findings: Provides a scientifically valid insight into the likely party that will be victorious in the next general election relevant to ‘preference attitude’.

Risk: False positives. This is based on 18 months being a long time in socio-political matters and variables and attitudes could change, based on stimulus input. However, because this study deliberately designed ‘static’ relevant variables as a background method, it minimizes this risk. Additionally, the level of ‘publicness’ and relevance of articles chosen randomly will also serve to minimize this risk.


Operational Variables:

These are essential and critical to the methodological approach of this research project as it provides a linkage of harmony among; theory, observation, scaling and findings.


Variable 1: Background socio-economic status (SES). Est. 65% working class.

Variable 2: Social stratification/cohesion; uniformity of thought among various stratified groups of individuals.

Variable 3: Age 18-55, information/internet savvy, hyper abstraction level of theory of rising expectation (blingy).

Variable 4: Attitudinal authoritarian mindset i.e. I can influence change “a mi run things, things nuh run mi”. This can be further defined as the change variable.


Variable 1 and 2 share an elevated level of harmonious content, due to social status. This facilitates sparse explanation of events for individuals to understand events in relative SES terms. Basically a uniform angle of how each event is interpreted.

Variable 3 and 4 are linked harmoniously by access to information technology and authoritarianism attitude towards change.


Scaling/Measurement

How does this research project quantitatively account for linkage of theory to findings? This will be accomplished through utilization of a Likert attitudinal ordinal scaling method, embedded in logics of imperatives viewed through the lens of variables 1-4.



Re-inforcement of Theory

This Researcher will revisit this socio-politico-behavioral research project at pre-selected (controlled) intervals to re-affirm theoretical attitudinal finding over the next 18 months. The dye has been casted, the interceding events to reverse the evolving trend and the various pollsters riding the people with their ‘Dionysian’ tabular percentage counting opinion survey tool using SPSS program, will make for interesting conversation; but in the end, their level of validity will be determined by their degree of convergence with the ‘Apollonian’ model used herein by X, in terms of uniformity of Finding results. Otherwise called ‘Spot-on-ness’.



Survey Data Inferential Findings

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.

(Likert Scaling)

http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/scallik.php

1. Vmbs writes $7bin new mortgages - Portfolio now valued at $20b
published: Friday | August 8, 2008
Victoria Mutual Building Society may have had a difficult time building its savings base last year, but that did not prevent it from nearly doubling the value of the new mortgages it wrote, when compared 2006.
According to the banking group - which reported a near 20 per cent increase in profit, to $651.4 million - it last year advanced approximately $7 billion in new mortgages, a jump of 180 per cent on the previous year.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080808/business/business2.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5

Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5








2. Absenteeism in Parliament
published: Thursday | September 11, 2008
Samuda, Shaw
On Tuesday, Speaker of the House of Representatives Delroy Chuck, rushed to the defence of tardy parliamentarians who registered high levels of absenteeism from October 2007 to March 2008, covering a total of 48 parliamentary sittings.
Chuck, in criticising an article published in The Sunday Gleaner (which pointed to the number of times parliamentarians failed to attend sittings of the House) claimed that, about 90 per cent of the time members of parliament, particularly government ministers, tendered apologies for their absence when on official government business.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20080911/news/news3.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2_-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5








3. Tax backtrack - Gov't scraps cess on books, salt, other goodies - But drinkers, smokers to feel the squeeze
Published: Thursday | May 7, 2009

Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter

Finance Minister Audley Shaw has recanted from his position of charging general consumption tax (Gct) on books and all printed materials, excluding newspapers.
Minister Shaw has also announced a lifting of the proposed tax on salt, rolled oats, syrup, fish soup, cock soups, noodle soups, motor spirit and lubrica-ting oil for com-mercial fishing.
The finance minister made the announcement when he closed the 2009/2010 Budget Debate in Gordon House yesterday.
"The Government has listened very carefully to the points raised by everyone ... we have listened and we are responding," Shaw said.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20090507/lead/lead1.html





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5

Pnp

-5__-4___-3___-2__-1__0__1___2___3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2___3__4__5




4. Bartlett defends office revamp
Published: Monday | October 12, 2009
Janet Silvera, Senior Gleaner Writer
Disputing yesterday's Sunday Gleaner report about millions spent on a makeover of his office, Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett says 75 per cent of the money spent on his New Kingston offices made it more energy-efficient.
Bartlett said in a statement issued last night that of the nearly $8 million spent, the fees of the National Works Agency (Nwa) amounted to $422,403.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091012/lead/lead7.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:



Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5



5. We want and deserve more
Published: Monday | December 7, 2009
Jamaica is ill-served by a public bureaucracy that has retreated from its responsibility to manage. The problem is compounded by politicians who believe not only that the job is theirs but that they are capable of doing it.
The result is abject failure, exemplified by the embarrassingly small economic growth since Independence, deepening poverty, high levels of crime, poor performance in education, a decrepit justice system, inadequate infrastructure as well as social and physical decay. There is, too, our intensely competitive and divisive political process that often breeds violence and has difficulty in fostering consensus.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20091207/lead/lead2.html



Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:



Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5







6. Bruce Pays Big
Published: Sunday | June 13, 2010
16 Comments

After nine months pregnant with anticipation, and a defiant Prime Minister Bruce Golding adamant that the United States administration had not provided sufficient information to deliver Christopher 'Dudus' Coke to face the grand jury, Golding turned tail on May 17. He instructed the signing of the said document that is to begin the extradition process. But that about-face came too late to change the minds of most Jamaicans who believe the Coke issue, like an abnormal foetus in inexperienced hands, was badly handled.
A Gleaner-commissioned public-opinion poll conducted by Bill Johnson late April and early May shows that six in every 10 Jamaicans disagreed with how Golding and his band of merry men and women handled the extradition request.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100613/lead/lead1.html





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





7. Erasing The Corruption Stain
Published: Sunday | July 4, 2010
7 Commentsampbell
Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Reporter
From the furniture scandal in December 1990 to the light-bulb scandal in November 2008, allegations of corruption stalked the People's National Party (Pnp) during its record stay in office.
Neither the brilliant chandeliers acquired by politicians which triggered the furniture scandal, nor the hundreds of light bulbs from Cuba, would have any radiating effect on the Pnp.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20100704/lead/lead2.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





8. Blaine forms new political party
New Nation Coalition launched in Kingston
BY Ingrid Brown Senior staff reporter browni@jamaicaobserver.com
Thursday, August 05, 2010

THE history of third parties caving in under the pressure of the dominant Jamaica Labour Party (Jlp) and the People's National Party (Pnp) has not thwarted former talkshow host and children's advocate Betty Ann Blaine from launching a new political party -- New Nation Coalition (Nnc).
"We are in it for the long haul as we believe this is the time for this country to make a U-turn," Blaine told yesterday's launch of the NNC at the Wyndham Kingston Hotel in New Kingston.

Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Blaine-forms-new-political-party_7854383#ixzz1DBLlSPX0





Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5





9. Cash Plus Drama
Published: Friday | January 14, 2011
18 Comments


Barbara Gayle and Philip Hamilton, Gleaner Writers
Tension filled the New Kingston office of the Trustee in Bankruptcy yesterday as a St Thomas bailiff and his team went about the removal of furniture in an attempt to recover an $8.5-million debt allegedly owed by Cash Plus Group Ltd.
"It is Government of Jamaica property they have removed because Cash Plus has no assets here," declared a defiant attorney-at-law Hugh Wildman, who is the trustee in bankruptcy.
Wildman, the court-appointed liquidator for the failed investment scheme and its subsidiaries, has threatened to press criminal charges, arguing that the property seizure was illegal.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110114/lead/lead1.html


Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp


-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5_-4__-3_-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5



10. Sandals Whitehouse Sale Needs Fresh Start - Ocg
Published: Thursday | January 20, 2011
9 Comments
Neill in discussion during A Special Evening With Air Jamaica held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston last Friday. - File
Citing serious irregularities and impropriety in the proposed deal, the Office of the Contractor General (Ocg) yesterday strongly recommended that Prime Minister Bruce Golding halt the sale of Sandals Whitehouse Hotel to Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Gorstew Limited.
In a 22-page letter to Golding and Onika Miller, permanent secretary and accounting officer in the Office of the Prime Minister, the Ocg said after carefully examining the proposed deal, it was led to launch a special statutory investigation into the circumstances of the negotiations.
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110120/lead/lead6.html




Survey Question: Rate the Party below on the above article:


Jlp

-5__-4__-3__-2_-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Pnp

-5__-4__-3__-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5


Nnc

-5__-4__-3_-2__-1__0__1__2__3__4__5




“ Re: Political Polling Methodology, the Stone Design
Reply #105 - Feb 6th, 2011 at 3:36pm

Attitudinal Survey Data

This research project employed a strategy of randomness in the selection 10 Newspaper Articles. These articles were administered to randomly selected individuals (voters) to measure their attitudinal responses to the sentiments expresses in the Articles relative to the 3 Political Parties. A Likert ordinal scaling tool was used to score their responses. The Total possible score was +50/-50. Ratings: Jlp= +1, Pnp =+5 and Nnc= -1.




Total Attitudinal Scale Scores:

Jlp = +1

Pnp = +5

Nnc = -1


Mean: 1.2/3 or 1.67
Chart 1

-5__-2__- 1_____+ 1_ CT__+2____+ 5
.....................0.............. (1.67)
In this study, the important rating is where one (Jlp, Pnp and Nnc) falls in reference to the point of CT. This point will relate to Chart #2 which will address the next 18 months. (See next edition) ”


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%



(Survey using Proxy data)


Attitudinal Survey Data continuation…


11. Golding’s credibility falls further — poll
Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Kingston, Jamaica (Cmc) — A significant number of Jamaicans believe that Prime Minister Bruce Golding should demit office based on his involvement in the controversy surrounding the extradition of reputed gang leader Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke to the United States last June.
A poll conducted by University of the West Indies (UWI) lecturer, Professor Ian Boxill, on behalf of the RJR Communications Group, shows that Golding’s credibility had suffered in the aftermath of the extradition as well as the hiring of a United States law firm, Manatt, Phelps and Phillips.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between April 9 and 15, reflect very little change from a previous one conducted in July 2010 at the height of the extradition matter when they were calls from a wide cross-section of the population for the prime minister to step down over his handling of the matter.
The calls were based on claims of inconsistencies and deception in how the Golding administration dealt with the hiring of the US law firm.
In the July 2010 poll, 54 per cent of respondents felt that based on what they knew about the Manatt/Coke affair at the time, Golding could not maintain credibility with the Jamaican people.
Nine months later in April, that figure increased to almost 57 per cent.
The number of Jamaicans who felt that Golding could maintain credibility dropped from 33.6 per cent in July 2010 to nearly 26 per cent in April this year.
In July almost nine per cent either did not know, or were not sure if he could maintain credibility, and by April that number increased to 10 per cent.
At least 49 per cent of the 1,015 Jamaicans polled in April still maintained that the prime minister should resign.
The figure represents a two per cent increase from the 47 per cent who felt the same way in July last year.
In July, 43 per cent said Prime Minister Golding should have remained in office but by April this year, that number dropped to 38 per cent.
In July, nearly seven per cent said they did not know while 8.6 per cent took a similar position in April.
Jamaicans are now awaiting the findings of a Commission of Enquiry that probed the circumstances leading to Coke’s extradition to the United States on drug and gun related charges.


Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Golding-s-credibility-falls-further#ixzz1LIPgk9L0



11-a Survey Question: Golding Credibility
(57-26)=-31%


.................*
-10..-4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4..10



11-b Survey Question: Golding Resignation
(49-38)=-11%

.....................................*
-10__-..4___-3___-2__- 1__0__1___2___3__4__..10



Chart # 2Scale 10=100

..................... (-21%) [-31-11]
-10……..-5__ CT-2__- 1_____+ 1_ __+2____+ 5……..+10



• Chart 2 Proxy survey data indicate an Attitudinal Central Tendency raw score of negative (-)21 for Prime Minister Golding on the topics of: Credibility and staying on as Prime Minister.
• Chart 1 survey data overall Attitudinal Central Tendency is +1.67. The Prime Minister party (JLP) overall attitudinal score is +1. This is .67 to the left of 1.67, which indicates a negative trending pattern.
• Statistically, this is not a healthy trend.
• Reversal of this trend is statistically unlikely within the next 9 months as indicated by the trending pattern established by Prof. Boxill’s survey data for the previous 9 months Chart # 2 and X’s attitudinal data displayed in Chart # 1. Why? Attitudes and trend/patterns are best fitted with ‘concrete boots’ and very difficult to move in significant (+) direction(s) over short time spans. This is especially challenging to accomplish when going against an empirically observed trending pattern.
• Statistically, it appears that a change is imminent in the makeup of the government if you subscribe to the validity of using attitudinal data to evaluate people’s future actions.
• Chart # 3=”Your” election post mortem of attitudinal scaling method and its level of accuracy/reliability/validity in this matter.





Polling Gameology
Now, here comes the ‘gameology’ of political polling; wherein bought and paid for pollsters will produce surveys consistent with ‘gameological’ theory.

Poll Gameology Sample:

"JLP bounces back - PNP lead cut in half over past 12 monthsPublished: Thursday | July 7, 2011 33 Comments
Bruce Golding addresses supporters at a 2007 party conference before the general election that brought his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to power. - File
Jubilant Labourites show their support at a 2009 JLP annual conference.
1 2 >

The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has gained a momentum that has seen it drastically reduce the lead which the People's National Party (PNP) holds as the party more Jamaicans would vote for if an election is called today.
More Jamaicans also believe the PNP would do a better job of governing the country at this time but, again, the JLP's tide is rising ominously.
The JLP has made big moves in the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, while the PNP has lost support or remained stable.
The latest poll, conducted islandwide from May 28 to 29 and June 4 to 5, shows that 35 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP candidate if an election is called today, while 25 per cent would vote for the JLP candidate, regardless of who is nominated to represent the two parties.
Eleven per cent of the respondents said they were undecided, while 27 per cent said they would not vote.
However, despite trailing the PNP by 10 percentage points, the poll provides encouraging news for the JLP, which is enjoying an upswing, while the PNP has lost some ground.
When Johnson last tested the pulse of the nation in April 2010, the PNP with 38 per cent support had doubled the JLP, which had only 19 per cent of the respondents, saying they would vote for the candidates of the governing party.
But in this latest poll, with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, the PNP has lost three percentage points while the JLP has gained six percentage points.
"This is one case where a political party cannot be sanguine with a 10-point lead," Johnson explained.
"The JLP has cut the PNP's 19 per cent lead in almost half in one year and it could be tough for the PNP unless it start giving people a reason to vote for its candidates," added Johnson.
The pollster noted that the story was similar when respondents were asked which party would do a better job of governing Jamaica at this time.
Forty-three per cent of Jamaicans said the PNP would do a better job in managing the affairs of the state at this time while 32 per cent made the JLP their choice.
But even as the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP continues to enjoy the lead that it has held since June 2008, that poll also showed encouraging signs for the JLP.
When Johnson posed the same question to Jamaicans just over one year ago, the PNP polled 43 per cent, while the JLP, with 26 per cent, was at its lowest level since 2007 and 17 percentage points behind Simpson Miller and her team.
Now one year later, the PNP has not moved and the JLP has gained six percentage points, closing that gap to 11 percentage points.
Even more encouraging for the JLP is the fact that its upswing has come from persons who were undecided about which party would do a better job of running the country.
Last April, 30 per cent of those polled declared that they were undecided about which party would be better at directing the affairs of the state. That number is now down to 25 which is about consistent with the polling numbers for non-election years and two of the island's leading political analysts believe it spells bad news for the PNP.
Troy Caine and Tony Myers agree that the signs are moving in the right direction for the JLP.
"The PNP doesn't have a lot of things going in its favour as it approaches the next general election," Caine told The Gleaner.
"The PNP was pushing for something to go in its favour from the Manatt-Dudus commission of enquiry and that did not work. Now, it is looking for other so-called scandals to try to discredit the JLP," Caine added.
He charged that the PNP has not made efforts to woo voters. Instead, it has sat expecting Jamaicans to boot out the Bruce Golding-led government.
That view is shared by Myers who is unimpressed by the actions of the PNP's Secretariat.
"The PNP seems to be saying that the people will get rid of the JLP rather than telling the country how the party would deal with issues such as crime and the economy. The leadership of the PNP needs to wake up," Myers said.
"The poll numbers have a lot to do with the lack of readiness of the PNP and the lack of inspiration of its Secretariat which is at a new low, below the floor," Myers added.
According to Caine: "The main problem that the PNP has why it is not gaining is that it is the same old team with the same old story and Simpson Miller's lame attempt at a recent reshuffle of her shadow Cabinet has found no favour with Jamaicans."
With elections constitutionally due next year, the PNP still has time to get back into gear but with the poll showing the momentum with the JLP, it will be hard work for the Opposition to change the status quo.
But Caine does not believe that is impossible.
"I do not hold much candle for the polls. Elections are all won at the constituency level and not on national issues."
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20110707/lead/lead1.html"


“REAL VS FAKE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
Scientific Investigation

The construction of testable theory, which is accomplished by scientific research methods that are conducted in a designed stimulus neutral environment for the collection of data.

A research design or schematic is used to channel data into sterile and unbiased data pools from which valid and reliable inferences and deductions can be concluded.

Checks and balances are utilized via randomness to neutralize contaminated data, which if not neutralized will render your research invalid and not reliable with the ultimate effect of making your findings erroneous.

"McPolling Style": McPolling style means instant serving upon request by 'funder'.

As a general statement 'Opinion Polling' seeks to verify pre-conceived researcher interest (theories/hypothesis) which can be used in a number of ways:

1) channel social agendas in a certain direction
2) channel social behaviors in a certain direction
3) influence social agendas in a certain direction
4) influence public policy
5) lead the people in a certain direction or
6) Valid and reliable Social Science Research

Presentation of opinions to the general public is a good and very noble concept; however, the choice of format (strategies and methodologies) in which these opinions are presented can lend itself to the theory of dishonesty. This is because this information can be presented as legitimate scientific investigation to the general public, when in reality its design methodology is constructed by a predetermined research design that is only related to legitimate scientific investigation and the overall goal is to yield a certain type of outcome.

The relevance of this is that a certain % of the general public reacts in concert (acquiesce) with the directional sentiments expressed in the opinion polls. (the transference of perception into reality). This is called simply 'dishonest manipulation' However, because human behavior is often unpredictable the directional sentiments induced by dishonest quasi-scientific manipulation are spurious and needs to be re-enforced. To enhance the likely success of this dishonest manipulation the “Manipulator” will need to keep nudging the general public in the preferred direction. This can be accomplished by conducting additional and frequent opinion polling (instant serving upon request) and presenting them in the same or a similar format to convert spuracity into preferred behavior.

Based on precedence one can conclude that both major parties account for 75% of the electorate (party die hearts) 37½% each, the third party <5%. The target electorate then becomes the swing voters’ appx. 20%; of this number one only needs 11% to win. So the % of people being targeted in McPolling is comprised of 20% of the electorate with a targeted goal of 11%.


Gameology Polling Method

Reply #6 - Sep 16th, 2006, 6:52pm
Agengi etal, visualize/imagine a three (3) way horse race. One horse dey pon de track so long that im consider it him yaad ground, and because him a favorite him always start with a 9 lengths jump start before the race even begin. (Poll: 9 points lead by the PNP over the JLP)

Now each horse have dem owna team and each team come up with dem owna strategy/method/bandooloo fe win de race; But this is no ordinary race because at the end a de race nuff food de dey fe horse, horse team, horse team family, friend and friend shirt.

So because this ya race so important teamie use all kinda different method/strategy/bandooloo fe win de race.For example, some a juck wit battery, some a use horse tonic and some a use oil a win one fe de Cappo. However, because the 9 lenghts so hard fe mek up dem hav fe draw fe high power battery, tonic an oil. (Stone high power Opinion survey Team). Now inna de stands and around de island through betting shops yu have nuff people a bet big money (Voting Public). Most a dem a bet pon de favorite Horse #1, but Horse # 2 figure out sey if im can get enuff high power battery, tonic an oil den im stand a good chance fe swing de race, so that’s wey de Stone Polls come in.

Stone Team recognize de 9 point lead but dem draw fe de high power battery, tonic an oil (Opinion survey) and try and convince 11% of the people sey Horse # 2 have enuff stamina fe clip Horse # 1 pon de finish line through de ‘theory’/game of momentum. Now if dem can sweet talk (Psychology)….

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy

…enuff people (strategically conducted Stone Polling surveys) then the goal is dat through some combination of: some people not betting and some switching dem can achieve dat 11 %. But in reality it’s a game of smoking mirrors, but if de high power battery, tonic an oil strong enuff, den dem can mek up de 9 lengths. Really its entirely possible if de 3 way guzzu (high power battery, tonic an oil) get mixed well and delivered by a master 3 card man- Stone Team. However, highly improbably because of the general voters attitude will mitigate/(work against) the reversal of the PNP’s early lead.

Why 11%. Voter breakdown. 37.5% PNP, 37.5% JLP, 5% Third and others Parties equals 80%. Now dat leaves 20% of which 11% would give one side winnings if dem can get a combination that is proportional to 11 points.


The below ‘watermelon’ effect is the intended result of the Gameology method/tactic.

“Although the scholars and the polling organization in question have denied the allegations, some people label polls as tools of political struggle that "create public opinion" and generate a "watermelon effect" (this refers to the Taiwanese expression, "The watermelon always leans toward the heavier side," i.e., people tend to jump on the bandwagon).


This strategy/method worked effectively in 2007. In 2012 Attitudinal under current will determine the results and X has completed a predictive model 18 months in advance using Affect Control Theory to measure attitudes of potential voters. The results of which are contained herein. Prepare yourself accordingly as X’s predictive model indicates that the government will change from JLP to PNP.

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A poll conducted by the Jamaica Sunday Herald also confirms the negative trending pattern occuring with the government, further validating X-1 Attitudinal Research.

"Should this government be given a second term?
Select Poll Select a poll from the listDo you have any regrets about the amounts you have spent so far this Christmas season?Do you think the government is handling the tax on liquor properly?Which minister should be dropped from the Cabinet?Should this government be given a second term?
Number of Voters:901
First Vote:Sunday, 27 February 2011 18:11
Last Vote:Friday, 08 July 2011 21:09Should this government be given a second term?
Hits Percent Graph
No
587 65.1%
Yes
314 34.9% "

___________________

Gameology Polling Method Cont

Well Pollster Bill Johnson has established himself as the new Mark Wignall of Polling. His Watermelon strategy to lead the JLP into the General Election is trending with Gameology sitting in the Drivers seat.


Green surge - JLP slices into PNP's lead in the polls even before Holness' selection
Published: Sunday | October 9, 2011 22 Comments


Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter

THE BIG green object looming in the rear-view mirror of the People's National Party's (PNP) orange election jeep is closer than it appears.

The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has started to close the gap on the PNP, even before Labourities get the expected bounce from their decision to select Andrew Holness to replace the tarnished Bruce Golding.

The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, which was conducted between October 1 and 2 in 84 communities across the island, found the JLP only six percentage points behind the PNP as the party most Jamaicans would vote for if the election is called now.


That represents a big forward move for the JLP, which trailed the PNP by 10 percentage points when a similar question was asked by Johnson and his team of researchers in June.
This is the closest the JLP has come to the PNP since August 2009, when a similar six points separated the two parties.

The opposition PNP has led the governing JLP in all the Gleaner-commissioned Johnson polls conducted after the Bruce Golding-led party won the 2007 general election.

"But the PNP has not moved from between 35 and 38 per cent for that entire period. It has been at 36 points, plus or minus two points, over 40 months," Johnson noted.

"Even when persons were shying away from the JLP and saying that the party was messing up, the PNP was not gaining. It has been dead in the water and that is not the way you win an election," declared Johnson.

He noted that at the height of the Government's messy handling of the extradition request for confessed gangster Christopher 'Dudus' Coke, the PNP's lead over the JLP was two-to-one at a staggering 19 per cent.

"The JLP obviously dipped significantly in April 2010 but in the 18 months following, the party has gained 13 points - that is almost one point each month and shows that the JLP is alive while the PNP's numbers have been dead," the pollster told The Sunday Gleaner.

In the latest poll, the JLP's support moved up from 25 per cent in June to 31 per cent. The PNP's support climbed marginally from 35 per cent in June to 37 per cent this time around.

The poll was conducted days after Golding announced that he was quitting come November and while the issue of who would replace him was still up in the air, even though Holness appeared the frontrunner.

JLP's ratings could improve

With Holness now seeming certain to get the nod, political analysts expect the JLP's popularity rating to improve.

"I think that Holness will get a bounce in the polls for the JLP as he replaces Golding, who became unpopular over his handling of the Manatt-Dudus affair," sociologist Dr Orville Taylor told The Sunday Gleaner.

"Outside of his handling of the Manatt issue, most people can't think of five other things that Golding did to make him so unpopular to the point where he was dragging the party down," added Taylor.

The university lecturer and talk-show host argued that Holness is similar to PNP President Portia Simpson Miller, who, even if not the best person to lead their parties, are believed to be the best to ensure electoral victory.

"I actually see some sharp parallels between Simpson Miller and Holness so he could enjoy a bounce in the polls similar to what we saw when she was elected to lead the PNP."

The PNP's popularity climbed sharply on the back of record approval ratings for Simpson Miller in the immediate aftermath of her 2006 victory in the race to replace P.J. Patterson as president of the party and prime minister.

Simpson Miller remains one of Jamaica's most popular politicians, but a decline in her approval rating going into the 2007 general election, and an even greater decline in the support for the PNP, saw her presiding over the party's first general election defeat in 18 years.

She is expected to lead her party into another election contest some time within the next 11 months against a JLP led by the 39-year-old Holness, with the poll showing the momentum is now with the governing party.

With a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, the latest poll suggests that the country could be in for another exciting election contest.

arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com

PNP - 37%
JLP - 31%